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[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 211936
SWODY1
SPC AC 211933

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CST TUE MAR 21 2006

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

TO THE SOUTH OF HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN...A SIGNIFICANT BELT
OF POLAR WESTERLIES PERSISTS ACROSS THE U.S...FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES. MODELS SUGGEST AN
INCREASING SHEARED IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THIS STREAM...WITHIN BROADER
SCALE CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW...WILL RAPIDLY ACCELERATE EAST OF THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY ACROSS MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT.
 MEANWHILE...THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES IS STILL WELL UPSTREAM...ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO
VALLEY...BUT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS NOW ONGOING OFF THE SOUTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COAST IN RESPONSE TO FORCING AHEAD OF LEAD IMPULSE.  THIS
FEATURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...AS REINFORCING COLD INTRUSION
OVERSPREADS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS DIMINISHING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS.  TRAILING COLD FRONT
HAS YET TO ADVANCE THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA...BUT WEAK CONVERGENCE
ALONG BOUNDARY AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL
INHIBITION SEEM LIKELY TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. 
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO COULD STILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OFF THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO INTO AREAS
NORTH OF TAMPA...WHERE MODERATELY STRONG AND SHEARED FLOW REMAINS
SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION AND AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
AN ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN/
CENTRAL ROCKIES.  HOWEVER...MAIN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY
TO ACCOMPANY COLD CORE OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW BEGINNING
TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING EAST OF THE RIVER...AND PERHAPS
NEAR CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA...AND STRONGER
FORCING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY.

..KERR.. 03/21/2006