[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 140100
SWODY1
SPC AC 140058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006

VALID 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES NEWD TO UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY AND MUCH OF PA/SRN NY...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO MID MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AS IT TRACKS NEWD TOWARD SWRN QUEBEC/UPPER OH RIVER
VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN DYNAMIC WITH STRONG
WINDS AT ALL LEVELS AS 200-300 METER HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD DOWNSTREAM
JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.  IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW...
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER FAR ERN U.P. OF MI...SHOULD BEGIN TO OCCLUDE
OVER ERN ONTARIO TOWARD 12Z...WITH EVENTUAL COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE ME COAST DURING EARLY DAY 2 PERIOD.  COLD FRONT TRAILING
SWD FROM THE MI LOW THROUGH ERN MI/WRN OH TO MIDDLE TN AND THE LOWER
MS VALLEY WILL SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT REACHING THE HUDSON VALLEY SWD
TO MID ATLANTIC STATES AND NERN GULF BY 12Z.

...TN VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
NWD TRANSPORT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES TO THE UPPER TN RIVER VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO OFFSET THE LOSS
OF INSOLATION TO MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.  STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH 0-3 KM SRH
VALUES RANGING FROM 200-300 M2/S2 FROM CENTRAL AL-ERN TN WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUED THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
TORNADOES.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH EWD
EXTENT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN GA...GIVEN A MORE STABLE AIR MASS
PER ATL 00Z SOUNDING WHICH DETECTED A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP.

FARTHER S ACROSS THE SRN PARTS OF MS/AL...WARMER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AS INDICATED ON THE SLIDELL LA 00Z SOUNDING WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH SWD EXTENT
THIS EVENING.

...UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES...
WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDED FROM ERN VA/MD NWD INTO ERN PA EARLY
THIS EVENING AND COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE
TO MAINTAIN A PRIMARILY ELEVATED LINE OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS EWD INTO
SRN NEW ENGLAND AND NJ THIS EVENING.  DOWNSTREAM SOUNDINGS AT ALB/
NYC INDICATED A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC INVERSION SUGGESTING THESE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED.  GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS TRANSLATING
EWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE ABLE
TO HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS PENETRATE TO THE SURFACE.

FARTHER W...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE UPPER OH
RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...GIVEN A NARROW AXIS
OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG/E OF COLD FRONT AIDING IN THIS
POTENTIAL.

..PETERS.. 03/14/2006