[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 130103
SWODY1
SPC AC 130101

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

VALID 130100Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER EXTREME EASTERN
KANSAS...MUCH OF MISSOURI...EXTREME SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST
CENTRAL/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR
NORTHEAST TEXAS...ARKANSAS...AND SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA FROM
EASTERN KANSAS TO WESTERN INDIANA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREA FROM THE SERN PLAINS NEWD TO THE SRN GREAT LAKES/LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEY...

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...

STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH ASSOCIATED 100+ KT MID
LEVEL SPEED MAX EXTENDING FROM ERN NM TO IA WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSLATE NEWD OVERNIGHT TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS WITH THIS TROUGH/WITHIN EXIT REGION OF JET WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER MN BY 12Z MONDAY.  SURFACE
LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL-NERN KS...IS PROGGED TO
TRACK/REDEVELOP ENEWD AND STRENGTHEN SOME REACHING NRN IL TO SRN
LAKE MI BY 12Z MONDAY. WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD WILL CONTINUE TO
RETREAT NWD TOWARD THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE COLD FRONT
TRAILING SWWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW SPREADS EWD OVERTAKING THE DRY
LINE WHICH EXTENDED SWD FROM ERN KS TO CENTRAL OK/TX.  COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NRN IL THROUGH ERN MO TO NERN TX BY 12Z
MONDAY.

STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY 
SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS ACROSS FAR ERN
KS/SERN IA THROUGH MUCH OF MO/IL AND INTO WRN IND.  TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY...INCLUDING A THREAT FOR SEVERAL LONG TRACK
STRONG-VIOLENT TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE HIGH RISK AREA. 
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MODERATE/HIGH RISK AREAS.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUING TO SPREAD ENEWD OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED
TO AID IN THE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS SWD ALONG THE DRY
LINE THROUGH ERN OK TO NERN TX THIS EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY
SPREADING NEWD ACROSS AR/SRN MO TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY
OVERNIGHT.  EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES RANGING FROM 150-300 M2/S2 SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...A FEW STRONG.  IN
ADDITION...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE
BANDS OR CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT AS THEY MOVE EWD TOWARD THE MS VALLEY.  ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THREAT MAY TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AFTER
06Z...THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTANT INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY SUGGESTS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES WITH BOWS OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN QUASI-LINEAR
SEGMENTS.

..PETERS.. 03/13/2006