[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 120108
SWODY1
SPC AC 120107

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0707 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR NRN AR/SRN-ERN
MO/CENTRAL-SRN IL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN OK NEWD TO THE LOWER
OH RIVER VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...

...ERN SRN PLAINS/MS RIVER VALLEY INTO OH RIVER VALLEY...
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
WRN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS ONTARIO. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WAS ANALYZED AT 00Z TRAILING SWD
THROUGH WI TO WRN IL AND THEN SWWD THROUGH MO TO ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER.  THE NRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...REACHING LOWER MI TO NWRN IND BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT EXTENDED WITH THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS
BOUNDARY.  LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE MID
MS RIVER VALLEY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NEXT UPSTREAM SPEED MAX
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE SRN PLAINS.  SSWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM THE
ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT TO
50 KT WILL ALLOW MOISTURE RETURN TO CONTINUE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOWER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS REACHING WRN OH BY 12Z SUNDAY. 
LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG THE LLJ AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF ERN
OK/CENTRAL-NRN AR/SRN MO NEWD TO WRN OH. 

DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS STRONG OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SLIGHT/MODERATE
RISK AREAS FOR SUPERCELLS.  FAIRLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WITH SOME
LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL
SUPPORT A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT... ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MODERATE
RISK.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO REMAIN A THREAT.  

ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER INTO
IND/OH OVERNIGHT...STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LLJ NOSING INTO WRN OH LATE TONIGHT MAY ALLOW
SEVERE STORMS TO REACH THIS REGION.  

...SRN CA...
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING/
OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING.

..PETERS.. 03/12/2006