From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 1 00:42:57 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 28 Feb 2006 19:42:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060301004416.AB728D4596@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010041 SWODY1 SPC AC 010040 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2006 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN//NRN ROCKIES... UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE WEST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY WITH TIME AS IT IMPINGES UPON PERSISTENT LARGE-SCALE RIDGE. PRECIPITATION WITH LOCAL/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...THOUGH AIRMASS WILL DIURNALLY STABILIZE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THOUGH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT/STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...LITTLE IF ANY SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED. ..GOSS.. 03/01/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 1 06:09:45 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 01 Mar 2006 01:09:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060301061106.BF47DD4596@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010604 SWODY1 SPC AC 010602 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1202 AM CST WED MAR 01 2006 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE...CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS AND REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EWD...RIDGE WILL RE-AMPLIFY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF SECOND TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WHICH SHOULD REACH THE W COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER OVER PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY REGION...WHILE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO NM...AS WELL AS ALONG THE W COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...OH VALLEY REGION... MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY...AS STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER...DESPITE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL THUS SUGGESTING THAT ANY THREAT FOR MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL. ...FOUR CORNERS REGION ACROSS SRN CO/NM... A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR OVER THIS REGION AS WEAK SRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE DESERT SW. ...W COAST... A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY REACH WRN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NRN CA NWD INTO COASTAL ORE AND PERHAPS COASTAL WA LATE IN THE PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE W COAST. ..GOSS/GUYER.. 03/01/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 1 12:42:27 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 01 Mar 2006 07:42:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060301124352.3B310D41B8@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011241 SWODY1 SPC AC 011240 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 AM CST WED MAR 01 2006 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...OH VALLEY AREA TONIGHT... A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY...AND THEN ESEWD OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE CYCLONE NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER WILL DEVELOP EWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. A MODIFYING AIR MASS IS RETURNING NWD/NEWD IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS CYCLONE...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 55-60 F FROM ERN OK SWD ACROSS E TX. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NEWD TO THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION. THOUGH A PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME WILL GENERALLY INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT SW OF THE SURFACE LOW...PERSISTENT WAA/ASCENT SHOULD LEAD TO SATURATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS BY TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF IL/IN/OH. ...PAC NW COAST... A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG ROUGHLY 135 W WILL MOVE INLAND OVER NW CA AND WRN OR/WA BY LATE TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CELLULAR CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH...WHILE OCEANIC LIGHTNING DETECTION DATA INDICATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE INITIAL BAROCLINIC BAND NEAR 125 W. OFFSHORE FLOW OF A DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR MASS MAY KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LARGELY OFFSHORE WITH THE FRONT TODAY. EXPECT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS NW CA AND W OF THE CASCADES IN WA/ORE AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREAD INLAND. ...SRN ROCKIES... A SRN STREAM TROUGH...NOW NEAR 30 N AND 120 W...WILL MOVE ENEWD OVER AZ/NM BY TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW A PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING IS NECESSARY BELOW 700 MB TO SUSTAIN A THUNDERSTORM THREAT...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE ERN EXTENT OF THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS IN QUESTION...THOUGH ASCENT OVER A SWWD MOVING COLD FRONT MAY PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION TONIGHT INVOF ERN NM. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 03/01/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 1 16:30:47 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 01 Mar 2006 11:30:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060301163219.977E0D4645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011629 SWODY1 SPC AC 011628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 AM CST WED MAR 01 2006 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...OH VALLEY AREA... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE ESEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. RESULTING THETA-E ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION WITH MARGINAL MUCAPE POSSIBLE. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS...ESPECIALLY N OF E-W BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS SRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY. ...SWRN U.S.... LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF THE SRN CA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE SWRN STATES. PERSISTENT ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GRADUAL MID LEVEL MOISTENING...AND LAPSE RATES APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MARGINAL MUCAPE DESPITE VERY LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ELEVATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ...PACIFIC NW THROUGH NWRN CA... LIGHTNING DATA SHOW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION WITHIN A FRONTAL BAND FROM OFF THE WA COAST SWD TO OFF THE CA COAST. NRN PORTION OF THIS FRONTAL BAND MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS PERIOD AS LEAD IMPULSE EJECTS NWD INTO WRN CANADA. HOWEVER...SECONDARY IMPULSE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO NRN CA. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NRN CA INTO SWRN OR AS FRONTAL BAND MOVES INLAND AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING THE IMPULSE SPREADS INLAND LATER TONIGHT. ..DIAL.. 03/01/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 1 19:58:24 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 01 Mar 2006 14:58:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060301195954.374DED48E1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011956 SWODY1 SPC AC 011955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 PM CST WED MAR 01 2006 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE RIDGING IN CENTRAL CONUS AND TROUGHS OFF E AND W COASTS...WITH PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW PENETRATING MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER NRN HIGH PLAINS...AND SHOULD DEVELOP CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW TONIGHT ACROSS DAKOTAS/MN BORDER REGION BEFORE MOVING TO UPPER MS VALLEY. ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE -- NOW ANALYZED OVER NWRN MO -- IS FCST TO MOVE GENERALLY EWD OVER IL/INDIANA OVERNIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT -- NOW EXTENDING FROM LOW SWWD ACROSS TX PANHANDLE -- WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS AND MO/AR TONIGHT...REACHING WRN KY...ARKLATEX AREA...AND LOWER PECOS VALLEY REGION BY 2/12Z. MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS SHOULD FALL OVER NRN CA AS STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD TOWARD DAY-2 LANDFALL. SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SRN CA/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY REGION WILL EJECT NEWD TOWARD 4-CORNERS AREA OVERNIGHT. ...SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... INTENSIFYING AND MOISTENING SWLY/WSWLY LLJ IS FCST TONIGHT...WITH ORIGINS IN PARTIALLY MODIFIED AIR MASS TRAJECTORIES FROM WRN GULF. AS RH INCREASES IN ELEVATED LOW LEVEL AIR TONIGHT...PARCELS WILL BE ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED TO LFC WITH SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS REGION. GREATEST THUNDER PROBABILITIES SHOULD BE INVOF WNW-ESE ORIENTED 850 MB WARM FRONT. RUC/ETA SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION INDICATE UP TO ABOUT 300 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS TO 4-CORNERS REGION... POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL SHIFT FROM W-E ACROSS AREA THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. BROAD AREA OF WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS FCST TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FROM W-E ACROSS AZ AND WRN NM...THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES WILL BE AIDED BY DIABATIC SFC HEATING FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS WELL. COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF MORE ROBUST LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS ERN NM AND WRN TX PANHANDLE REGION. GRADUAL MOISTENING IN MIDLEVELS MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED MUCAPES 100-200 J/KG. ...W COAST... SCATTERED/EPISODIC TSTMS HAVE BEEN DETECTED IN PORTIONS OF BAROCLINICALLY ENHANCED CLOUD/CONVECTIVE BAND...NOW APCHG NRN CA/ORE COAST. TSTM POTENTIAL IS FCST TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NRN CA AND WRN ORE AS ENHANCED LIFT...ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL ZONE...MOVES INLAND. ..EDWARDS.. 03/01/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 4 05:51:43 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 04 Mar 2006 00:51:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060304055429.241F3D4939@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040552 SWODY1 SPC AC 040551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 PM CST FRI MAR 03 2006 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.... IN THE WAKE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST...RIDGING HAS COOLED/DRIED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS SUGGEST UPPER TROUGHING WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS TODAY...BUT MODIFICATION OF LOWER LEVELS WILL BE SLOWER TO OCCUR. ONLY THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY UNAFFECTED BY THE COLD/DRY INTRUSION...AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF RETURNING NORTHWARD... WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER TOWARD THE TEXAS BIG BEND. IN A NARROW TONGUE...THIS MOISTURE SEEMS LIKELY TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY...AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS/ STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. UPPER SYSTEM HAS LIFTED OUT OF BASE OF BROADER SCALE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH...AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY PROGRESS INTO MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION OVER THE PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST IN RESPONSE TO VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NOW DIGGING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. MID-LEVEL HEIGHT/TEMPERATURE RISES ACROSS THE WEST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THAT AREA TODAY. BUT...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUING/INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... NARROW TONGUE OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND NORTH OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH A RELATIVELY WEAK MOISTURE RETURN...MODELS SUGGEST SEASONABLY STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG DRY LINE...AND CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS WILL OCCUR BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KT. SUPPRESSION OF MID-LEVEL INHIBITION DURING/SHORTLY AFTER THE PEAK HEATING HOURS APPEARS LIKELY TO ALLOW INITIATION OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A FEW VIGOROUS STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE...INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH ENHANCED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. THREAT MAY NOT CONTINUE MUCH BEYOND 04/01-02Z...AS MID/UPPER FORCING SHIFTS ABOVE COOLER MORE STRONGLY CAPPED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED THIS FAR NORTH...BUT LAPSE RATES STEEP ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL SEEM LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE AUGMENTED BY SPEED MAXIMA IN A SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR WESTERLIES...WHICH IS PROGGED TO NOSE ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AS JET STREAK CONTINUES TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT ...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EASTWARD IN STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LACK OF BETTER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT CAPE...BUT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY/SHEAR MAY CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. ..KERR/CROSBIE.. 03/04/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 4 12:39:46 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 04 Mar 2006 07:39:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060304124230.673B7D4634@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041240 SWODY1 SPC AC 041238 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 AM CST SAT MAR 04 2006 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER SRN ID THIS AM WILL CONTINUE NEWD ACROSS ERN MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO SRN CANADA TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW WY WITH COLD FRONT SWWD INTO WRN AZ. LOW MOVES NEWD INTO WRN SD THIS AFTERNOON AND A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS IN LEE TROUGH OVER ERN CO. COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS WRN DAKOTAS DURING EVENING WITH SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE DEVELOPING SWD THRU WRN NEB/KS THEN SSWWD VICINITY ERN NM/TX BORDER. CURRENTLY STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO INCREASE GULF MOISTURE PRIMARILY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS FAR N AS SRN NE AS EVIDENCED BY ACTIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION LAST SEVERAL HOURS CENTRAL KS/SRN NE. WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW CONTINUING...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO AOA 50F AS FAR N AS WRN KS BY THIS EVENING. COOL/STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS HIGH PLAINS DURING AFTERNOON AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... HAVE INCREASED THE THREAT OF SEVERE NWD INTO WRN KS/SWRN NEB FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT NOW APPEARS THAT GIVEN THE MOISTURE RETURN AND COOLING ALOFT...SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION LIKELY VICINITY SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50KTS ALONG WITH A VEERING PROFILE SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM ROTATION...THE MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SUPPORTS PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD OVERNIGHT SRN NE/NRN KS WITH ENHANCED LIFT FROM APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT FROM THE W. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS.... WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT VICINITY ERN NM/TX BORDER FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...DEPENDENT ON SUFFICIENT HEATING TO WEAKEN THE CAP. CURRENT HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD SHIFT EWD LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR 70F ERN NM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 50S AND PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL PRIMARY THREAT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING HOURS. ..HALES.. 03/04/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 4 16:30:46 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 04 Mar 2006 11:30:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060304163339.216A8D4634@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041631 SWODY1 SPC AC 041629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST SAT MAR 04 2006 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL HI PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... COMPACT UPR LOW NOW OVER ERN ID EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NE INTO ERN MT LATER TODAY...BEFORE TURNING MORE E ACROSS ND TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN WY/CO SHOULD LIFT NE INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING. IN THE SRN STREAM...AN IMPULSE ATTM OVER THE LWR CO VLY EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE INTO CO/NM EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE CONTINUING E ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS EARLY SUNDAY. AT LWR LEVELS...LEE LOW NOW OVER SE MT WILL DRIFT NE INTO WRN ND WHILE APPROACH OF SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE INDUCES MODEST SURFACE DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEE TROUGH IN NE CO/NW KS. THE LATTER FEATURE SHOULD TRACK E/NE INTO SE NEB BY 12Z SUNDAY. ...SRN HI PLNS... MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING OVER MUCH OF THE SRN HI PLNS TODAY. BUT SOME LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR OVER PARTS OF ERN NM/W TX AND THE WRN PORTION THE TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEAR/MIX EWD. PERSISTENT SELY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP AT LEAST A MODEST SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER REGION...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 40S OR LOW 50S. WEAK UPSLOPE/CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG LEE TROUGH...AND APPROACH OF SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE...MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN NM AND PERHAPS PARTS OF SW TX LATER TODAY. WITH MLCAPE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 500 J/KG IN HEATED AREAS AND DEEP WSWLY SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS...SETUP COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ...CNTRL HI PLNS... SURFACE HEATING WILL STEEPEN LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS AND SW NEB TODAY...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED ATTM. BUT 12Z KAMA RAOB WITH +8 C DEWPOINT AND 40 KT SLY LLJ SUGGESTS THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW KS/SW NEB BY LATE TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT. COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY TAIL END OF NRN STREAM TROUGH...EXPECT THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM INVOF LEE LOW BY EARLY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY INCLUDE A FEW ROTATING STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLY HIGH WIND GIVEN 40+ KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR AND STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD E IN DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN NEB AND KS TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 03/04/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 6 05:17:51 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 06 Mar 2006 00:17:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060306052030.9A46CD4A81@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060518 SWODY1 SPC AC 060517 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 PM CST SUN MAR 05 2006 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD AS TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR ERN PACIFIC MOVES ONSHORE. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL CONCURRENTLY BUILD EWD THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY...WHILE MID/UPPER-LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY ACCELERATES SEWD TO ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTS BY TUESDAY MORNING. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM IMPULSE CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS THIS EVENING. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH FL AND THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY...INITIALLY STALLED ACROSS CNTRL TX...WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS ON BACKSIDE OF EWD-MIGRATING RIDGE AXIS. FARTHER TO THE W...PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE...EVENTUALLY PUSHING EWD INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. ...INTERMOUNTAIN W... INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND RESULTANT STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF ERN PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG COLD FRONT AND ANY OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST AS INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED. ...KS/OK... LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO INCREASING HEIGHT/PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 40-50 KT SLY LLJ TONIGHT FROM W TX TO THE DAKOTAS. IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL OCCUR ALONG RETREATING NW-SE ORIENTED 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS KS/OK WHERE A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES OF 500-700 J/KG. THIS THREAT IS TOO LIMITED ATTM TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF LOW PROBABILITIES. ...NC/SC/GA... CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS OVER TN/MS/AL WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EWD/SEWD TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. HERE TOO...IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SEVERE CONVECTION. ..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 03/06/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 6 12:49:39 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 06 Mar 2006 07:49:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060306125217.DD7B4D42E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061249 SWODY1 SPC AC 061247 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 AM CST MON MAR 06 2006 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD FROM THE THE W CST ACROSS THE GRT BASIN TO THE CNTRL/NRN RCKYS THIS PERIOD AS TROUGH NOW OFF THE CA CST MOVES ONSHORE AND ASSOCIATED UPR LOW LIFTS NE INTO BC. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE SHOULD PROGRESS FROM THE RCKYS TO THE MS VLY... WHILE UPR LOW NOW OVER WI DROPS SE TO THE NC CST. AT LWR LEVELS...LOW NOW OVER SC SHOULD MOVE E/SE OFF THE NC CST BEFORE DEEPENING LATER TONIGHT AS UPR IMPULSE ARRIVES FROM WI. TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM LOW WILL DROP SE ACROSS GA TODAY AND INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT...WHILE WRN PART BEGINS TO REFORM NWD AS A WARM FRONT IN TX/OK. FARTHER NW...LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE HI PLNS AS COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC SYSTEM REACHES THE RCKYS TUESDAY MORNING. ...INTERMOUNTAIN RGN THRU PERIOD... INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT NOW MOVING ASHORE IN NRN CA. THIS MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG BOUNDARY AS IT CONTINUES E/NE ACROSS THE GRT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY THE NRN RCKYS. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR OVER OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS IN WAKE OF FRONT OVER THE PAC NW AND THE WRN/NRN GRT BASIN. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT. ...E CNTRL INTO SE TX THIS AFTN... MODERATE INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 1000 J PER KG/ WILL DEVELOP WITH SURFACE HEATING OVER SE AND E CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG AND SW OF STALLING FRONT. SHALLOW NATURE OF FRONT...AND FACT THAT BOUNDARY WILL BE BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP N DURING THE PERIOD... SUGGEST THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG FEATURE WILL BE BOTH SHALLOW AND WEAK. IN ADDITION...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT 850-600 MB LAYER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM...LIMITING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. WHILE A FEW BUILDUPS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY FORM OVER REGION FOLLOWING MAX HEATING...AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS SHOULD MITIGATE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED TSTMS. ...NC/SC THIS EVENING... FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD TEMPORARILY WEAKEN OVER SC AND SRN NC TODAY AS SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW PASSING THE SRN APPALACHIANS CONTINUES EWD. ASCENT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS POTENT UPSTREAM SYSTEM TRACKS SE FROM WI. COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL UPLIFT ALONG COLD FRONTAL SEGMENT NEAR THE SC/NC BORDER...SETUP MAY SUPPORT POSSIBLE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG BOUNDARY EARLY TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUESDAY. ...KS/OK EARLY TUESDAY... LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN TO 40-50 KTS FROM W TX TO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE STRONGEST WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD OCCUR ALONG DEVELOPING NW/SE- ORIENTED 850 MB FRONT ACROSS KS/OK...WHERE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INFLUX MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS LATE IN THE PERIOD. SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE OF 500-700 J/KG. THIS THREAT...HOWEVER...APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 03/06/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 6 16:32:08 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 06 Mar 2006 11:32:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060306163445.C3DDCD4968@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061628 SWODY1 SPC AC 061626 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1026 AM CST MON MAR 06 2006 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PAC COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... A MID LEVEL TROUGH...WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY CENTERS NEAR 47 N / 127 W AND 36 N / 124 W...IS MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE PAC COAST FROM CENTRAL CA NWD TO WRN WA/OR THIS MORNING. LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH IS SPREADING INLAND...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY EARLY TONIGHT...WHERE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED/SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL PERSIST IN CONJUNCTION WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ...ERN OK AREA LATE TONIGHT... A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY...WHILE THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL ACROSS E TX LATER TODAY. GIVEN ONLY WEAK/SHALLOW ASCENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY...THE CAP SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS ERN OK...IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING L0W-LEVEL WAA AND WEAK INSTABILITY BASED NEAR 850 MB. ...CAROLINAS TONIGHT... A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS AS OF LATE MORNING...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING SEWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY/APPALACHIANS. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED THIS AREA...LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ASCENT WITH THE SECOND TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY TONIGHT. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 03/06/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 6 19:55:54 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 06 Mar 2006 14:55:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060306195828.D984BD4A5A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061954 SWODY1 SPC AC 061953 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CST MON MAR 06 2006 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CAROLINAS... MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE SEWD TO THE CAROLINAS BY 06Z AND OFF THE COAST BY 09Z. LEE-SFC LOW OVER UPSTATE SC WILL TRACK TO NEAR KCHS BY 03Z AND TO THE WRN ATLANTIC BASIN AFTER 06Z. SFC FLOW MAY BACK VCNTY THE LOW TO ADVECT/MAINTAIN MID 40S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS THROUGH MID-EVENING. AS H5 TEMPERATURES COOL AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE CONTRIBUTES TO MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN...A LOW TSTM PROBABILITY WILL EXIST DURING THE EVENING. ...CNTRL/ERN OK... AS THE NOCTURNAL LLJ VEERS LATER TONIGHT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS... ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES ENHANCED ALONG AN H85-H7 BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED ACROSS OK. SUFFICIENT MOISTENING IN THAT LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AND PERHAPS AN ELEVATED TSTM THREAT AFTER ABOUT 09Z. ...WRN STATES... LARGE SCALE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD INTO THE WRN STATES THIS AFTN WITH SMALLER SCALE VORTICITY CENTERS MOVING INTO WRN WA AND CNTRL CA. COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. MOST OF THE TSTM THREAT WILL BE TIED TO THE IMPULSE THAT WILL TRACK FROM CNTRL CA INTO THE NRN GRT BASIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. ..RACY.. 03/06/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 7 00:53:17 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 06 Mar 2006 19:53:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060307005553.194CAD4AA9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070053 SWODY1 SPC AC 070052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 PM CST MON MAR 06 2006 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WRN STATES... 07/00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT WEAK INSTABILITY INVOF COLD MID-LEVEL TROUGH /I.E. -28 TO -30 C AT 500 MB/ MOVING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. DESPITE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM REGION OF STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT WWD TO NEAR TROUGH AXIS. ...OK/SRN KS... SURFACE ANALYSIS AND 07/00Z FTW SOUNDING SHOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING NWD THROUGH TX WITH WEAK WARM FRONT/MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY EXTENDING FROM THE NERN TX PNHDL SEWD THROUGH SWRN OK AND INTO E-CNTRL TX. STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ OVERNIGHT FROM WRN PORTIONS OF TX/OK INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL ENHANCE NWD RETURN OF THIS MOISTURE THROUGH THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTMS WILL EXIST LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG RETREATING 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HERE...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR PARCELS ORIGINATING FROM AROUND 800 MB. ...CAROLINAS... FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW TRANSLATING SEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS IS CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS THIS EVENING OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. MORE RECENTLY...ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER N-CNTRL SC/S-CNTRL NC...TO THE N OF ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW. EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT AS THIS UPPER LOW CONTINUES SEWD THROUGH AREA. ..MEAD.. 03/07/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 7 12:59:44 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 07 Mar 2006 07:59:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060307130345.D1047D42E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071258 SWODY1 SPC AC 071257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 AM CST TUE MAR 07 2006 VALID 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD WRN U.S. TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THIS PERIOD AS STRONG UPSTREAM SYSTEM CROSSES THE GULF OF ALASKA. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM CNTRL MT TO ERN UT SHOULD MOVE NE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE PLNS TODAY...WITH TAIL END GRAZING WRN AND NRN KS. MAIN UPSTREAM IMPULSE IN THE SAME BRANCH OF FLOW IS ATTM JUST OFF THE SRN ORE/NRN CA CST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD DIG SE TO NEAR KLAS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. FARTHER S...SATELLITE DEPICTS A FAST-MOVING SRN STREAM IMPULSE ABOUT 500 MILES SW OF NRN BAJA CA. THIS FEATURE IS NOT WELL-DEPICTED IN THE MODELS BUT EXTRAPOLATION WOULD TAKE IT INTO WRN NM THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS SRN KS TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT LWR LEVELS...EXPECT THAT LEE LOW NOW OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AND CONSOLIDATE OVER NW KS WHILE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD UPR DISTURBANCE SETTLES SE ACROSS THE NRN PLNS. FARTHER S...DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH SHOULD MIX E INTO W CNTRL KS AND INTO THE ERN OK/TX PANHANDLES AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SPREADS NWD FROM THE RED RVR VLY INTO MUCH OF KS/WRN AR AND...BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...WRN MO. ...CNTRL/SRN PLNS... MORNING RAOB AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE IS RETURNING NWD ATTM IN A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED LAYER ACROSS OK AND KS. MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE NOW PRESENT S OF A KTYR/KABI LINE MAY SPREAD N OF THE RED RVR BY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE RETURN AND SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION E OF DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH IN NW TX/WRN AND CNTRL OK AND CNTRL KS TODAY... WITH MLCAPE LIKELY INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG DESPITE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUDS. CAPPING WILL...HOWEVER... LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRECLUDE SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT IN AREAS OF LOCALIZED ASCENT. WHILE BOTH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF TX/OK AND KS...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT LIKELY WILL REMAIN WEAK. THE NW HALF OF KS WILL BE GLANCED BY PASSING NRN STREAM IMPULSE THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY...BUT REGION MAY EXPERIENCE NEUTRAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LARGE SCALE UVV IN WAKE OF TROUGH. FARTHER S...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT APPEARS EVEN MORE LIMITED THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH BY EARLY EVENING THE PANHANDLES REGION MAY EXPERIENCE WEAK UPLIFT AS SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE LIMITED...DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LOCALIZED ASCENT FROM NW TX TO VICINITY OF DEEPENING LOW IN NW KS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIAL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DEVELOPMENT MAY BE IN KS...WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE LOW BENEATH COMPARATIVELY COOLER AIR ALOFT. MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM ALONG DRYLINE IN WRN OK/NW TX. DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA WILL BE MORE DEPENDENT ON STRONG HEATING AND DRYLINE CIRCULATIONS TO OVERCOME CAP. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN 45-55 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER WSWLY SHEAR...WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY MOIST...RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALSO SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN BECOME SUSTAINED/DISCRETE. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER NRN AND ERN OK AND CNTRL/ERN KS AS AFOREMENTIONED SRN BRANCH IMPULSE CONTINUES NE AND LLJ/MOISTURE INFLOW FURTHER STRENGTHEN. WHILE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME ELEVATED AND WILL EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AS THE STORMS MOVE/ DEVELOP NE INTO PARTS OF MO/NW AR. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 03/07/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 7 16:45:18 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 07 Mar 2006 11:45:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060307164803.2AF90D4968@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071642 SWODY1 SPC AC 071641 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 AM CST TUE MAR 07 2006 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM WRN OK INTO CENTRAL/SE KS.... ...KS/OK AREA THROUGH TONIGHT... AN INITIAL LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS. A DEVELOPING WAA REGIME WILL SUPPORT WEAK INSTABILITY BASED IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...AND AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM ERN KS/WRN MO NWD AND NEWD IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING MID LEVEL WAVE. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY POSE A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WRN MO INTO IA. FARTHER S...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS SPREADING NWD FROM TX ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN OK TO SRN KS. BY LATE AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS OF 56-60 F AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 78-82 F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE FROM NW TX ACROSS WRN OK INTO S CENTRAL KS. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SOME WARMING WILL OCCUR IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER ABOVE THE DEVELOPING MOISTURE AXIS...AND THAT SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE IN KS/OK. LOCAL DRYLINE CIRCULATIONS AND DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL BE THE ONLY APPRECIABLE SUPPORTING FACTORS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION...GIVEN THAT THE HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PASS LARGELY N OF THE UNSTABLE SURFACE WARM SECTOR BY MID AFTERNOON. A GREATER CHANCE STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED BY LATE EVENING INTO TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL KS SWD INTO NRN OK IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NOCTURNAL LLJ...AND AS A WEAK SUBTROPICAL WAVE /NOW NEAR BAJA CA/ APPROACHES FROM THE SW IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGER SCALE HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH WIND PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL AS A PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT EVOLVE OVERNIGHT. THE TORNADO THREAT IS IN QUESTION GIVEN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL L0W-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE NOCTURNAL AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 03/07/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 7 19:56:09 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 07 Mar 2006 14:56:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060307195839.7729AD42E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071956 SWODY1 SPC AC 071955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... N-S BANDS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VLY AHEAD OF A WEAK LEAD MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MIGRATING THROUGH THE PLAINS. ISOLD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS ACROSS NRN MO OR SRN IA THROUGH LATE AFTN...BUT IT APPEARS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION HAS DECREASED. ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE HEART OF THE PLAINS. GIVEN PASSAGE OF THE LEAD WAVE...UVV WAS WEAKENING ACROSS THE DRYLINE SITUATED FROM CNTRL KS SWWD TO ALONG THE OK/PNHDL TX BORDER AT 18Z. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT HEATING AND DRYLINE CIRCULATION WILL BE NEEDED FOR TSTM INITIATION. INSOLATION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED OWING TO A STANDING WAVE CI CANOPY. STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE OVER SWRN-CNTRL OK AWAY FROM THE DRYLINE. THERE ARE CONFLICTING MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION. BEST AGREEMENT IS FOR TSTMS TO INITIATE BY EARLY EVE ACROSS SCNTRL-ERN KS WHERE CINH WILL WEAKEN THE FASTEST AND WHERE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE STILL OCCURRING. BUT... WRF-NMM AND NAM-PARALLEL RUNS SUGGEST TSTMS WILL DEVELOP FARTHER S IN OK 03-06Z IN ADDITION TO THE EARLIER TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER SCNTRL KS. GIVEN THAT THE NEXT LOW-AMPLITUDE SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSE IS NOT PROGD TO ARRIVE IN THE TX PNHDL UNTIL AFTER 06Z...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE TSTM THREAT INTO WRN OK WILL REMAIN ISOLD AT BEST. IT IS ALSO REASONABLE TO EXPECT TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN SCNTRL KS THIS EVE AND EXPAND NEWD INTO PARTS OF WRN MO OVERNIGHT AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE APPROACHES. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL ANYWHERE STORMS FORM ACROSS KS/OK. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLD TORNADO ACROSS SCNTRL KS OR EXTREME NCNTRL OK THIS EVENING...BUT LESS-THAN IDEAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROFILES WOULD ARGUE AGAINST TORNADOES. MOREOVER...TSTMS SHOULD BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME OVERNIGHT MAINTAINING A HAIL THREAT. ..RACY.. 03/07/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 8 00:56:32 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 07 Mar 2006 19:56:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060308005901.7F7C4D45E5@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080057 SWODY1 SPC AC 080055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN KS...WRN MO AND NERN OK... ...KS/MO... EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING OBSERVED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A SECONDARY...WEAKER IMPULSE ALSO APPEARS TO BE PRESENT OVER CNTRL NM...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEWD OVERNIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WAS ORGANIZING OVER ERN CO WITH INVERTED FRONT EXTENDING NEWD TO SECONDARY SURFACE LOW OVER ERN SD. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED SEWD THROUGH ERN NEB AND THEN EWD THROUGH CNTRL MO...WHILE DRYLINE STRETCHED FROM CNTRL KS TO FAR WRN OK INTO SWRN TX. IT APPEARS THAT SEVERAL CONTRIBUTING FACTORS HAVE INHIBITED SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG OK/KS DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE FACTORS INCLUDE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL RIDGING...CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH-CLOUDINESS AND THE RESULTANT MAINTENENCE OF A STRONG CAP ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS /REFERENCE 08/00Z OUN/FWD SOUNDINGS/. THIS CAP WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY WITH NEWD EXTENT INTO NERN KS WHERE TOP SOUNDING INDICATED LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH A MUCAPE OF 1000 J/KG FOR A PARCEL BASED AROUND 850 MB. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MAINLY ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BETWEEN 03-06Z OVER ERN KS INTO WRN MO...PERHAPS AS SWLY LLJ RE-FOCUSES WWD OVER OK/KS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING WEAKER DISTURBANCE LIFTING NEWD OUT OF NM. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OBSERVED ON REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ...SWRN TX... TSTM WHICH DEVELOPED OVER PECOS COUNTY EARLIER HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR...LIKELY AS IT MOVED E OF THE LOCAL AREA THAT SUPPORTED IT/S INITIATION. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF RATHER STEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE 08/00Z DRT SOUNDING SHOWED A CONSIDERABLE CAP AROUND 780 MB...WHICH IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS STORM/S DEMISE. NO ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED OWING TO THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THEREFORE...NO THUNDER PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED. ..MEAD.. 03/08/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 8 05:54:25 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2006 00:54:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060308055912.3F65AD4A6C@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080554 SWODY1 SPC AC 080552 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MO/OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... DYNAMIC...MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING SEWD INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE SEWD TODAY THROUGH AZ/NM AND NRN MEXICO...PRIOR TO SHIFTING MORE EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT. ACCOMPANYING MID AND HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS WILL GRADUALLY PROPAGATE THROUGH THE TROUGH BASE INTO NRN/CNTRL TX WITH STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOPING FROM NM INTO CNTRL TX TONIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL KS WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT...EVENTUALLY REACHING NRN IL BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE OK/TX PNHDLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO INTENSE HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING OVER NM. THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY EWD OR ESEWD ACROSS OK OVERNIGHT AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO TX. SURFACE DRYLINE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED TODAY FROM INTERSECTION WITH COLD OR STATIONARY FRONT OVER CNTRL KS SWD THROUGH WRN OK INTO W-CNTRL TX. ...KS/MO/IL... CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER PORTIONS OF ERN KS...MO INTO IL WITHIN ZONE OF ENHANCED WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURRING ON NOSE OF 45-55 KT SWLY LLJ. THIS BRANCH OF THE LLJ WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE NEWD TODAY IN ADVANCE OF WEAK IMPULSE /NOW OVER THE TX PNHDL/...MAINTAINING A BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INVOF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEWD ALONG WARM FRONT OVER NERN KS INTO NWRN MO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AREA INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS GIVEN POTENTIAL MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ AND 50-60 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MOREOVER...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE LOCALLY AUGMENTED AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE LOW...SUGGESTING A THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER. WITH TIME...EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP SWD/SWWD ALONG FRONT TO IT/S INTERSECTION WITH DRYLINE OVER S-CNTRL KS. HERE TOO...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MCS OR LARGE STORM CLUSTERS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH A DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT SPREADING EWD INTO MO. ...OK/TX/AR/LA... 08/00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT ONLY A MODESTLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS /I.E. MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 10-11 G/KG/ EXISTS FROM THE TX COAST INTO OK GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES OBSERVED AT THE BASE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 1500 J/KG/...THIS CAP WILL LIKELY INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. RAPID CHANGES IN THE VERTICAL STRATIFICATION OF THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ARE FORECAST ALONG DRYLINE AFTER 09/00Z OWING TO STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING/HEIGHT FALLS WHICH WILL AID IN CAP REMOVAL AND FURTHER STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS THIS OCCURS...STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BETWEEN 09/00-03Z ALONG OR JUST TO THE W OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN OK AND N TX. GIVEN THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN AMBIENT WIND FIELDS...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY MERGE INTO CLUSTERS OR A MCS AS THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN OK INTO AR AND N-CNTRL AND NERN TX. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS N-CNTRL INTO SERN OK/NERN TX OVERNIGHT INDICATE VERY STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES DEVELOPING WITHIN INSTABILITY AXIS AHEAD OF ANTICIPATED ONGOING TSTMS. IF STORMS CAN REMAIN SURFACE-BASED AND SOMEWHAT DISCRETE...A DISTINCT...NOCTURNAL TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP FROM SERN OK/NERN TX TOWARD THE ARKLATEX LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SERN CO... INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS /WEAK OROGRAPHIC FORCING/ WITHIN IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...SOME THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 03/08/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 8 13:05:54 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2006 08:05:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060308130826.08CECD42E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081305 SWODY1 SPC AC 081304 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0704 AM CST WED MAR 08 2006 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR MO VLY INTO THE SRN PLNS AND OZARKS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPR TROUGH NOW OVER THE LWR CO VLY APPEARS TO HAVE NEARLY REACHED MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE. IT SHOULD TURN MORE E/SE ACROSS AZ/NM TODAY BEFORE ENTERING THE SRN PLNS EARLY THURSDAY. WHILE THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE TROUGH WILL REACH THE SRN PLNS LATE TONIGHT/ EARLY THURSDAY...EWD PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM AND THERMAL GRADIENT AHEAD OF IT SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST MODEST MID LEVEL COOLING WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT KS/OK AND WRN/NRN TX BY AFTERNOON. AT LWR LVLS...LOW NOW OVER CNTRL KS SHOULD MOVE NE TO NEAR KCHI BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER SE CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPR TROUGH. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY E/SE ACROSS OK TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE LOW...EXPECT DRY LINE TO MIX WELL E ACROSS SRN KS AND INTO CNTRL OK TODAY... BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR KCNU TO KOKC TO KSPS THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SE INTO CNTRL OK AND NW TX THURSDAY MORNING. ...MO/IL/IND... CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE ON NOSE OF 45-55 KT SWLY LLJ. THIS JET SHOULD DEVELOP ENEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...AHEAD OF WEAK IMPULSE NOW OVER CNTRL KS. ASSOCIATED TONGUE OF STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN THE STRONGER CELLS. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY MO/SRN IA AND IL TODAY...AND IND/SRN OH EARLY THURSDAY. ...EXTREME NE KS/NRN MO SWWD INTO OK/NW AR AND NRN TX... MOISTURE AVAILABILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN COMPARATIVELY MODEST IN WARM SECTOR N OF THE RED RIVER THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD..WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING IN THE UPR 50S IN ERN KS/WRN MO...AND THE LOW 60S IN SE OK. NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING... WEAK MID LVL COOLING...AND CONVERGENCE INVOF KS SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CAP AND SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NW MO OR EXTREME NE KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM BY EARLY EVENING SWD ALONG TRAILING DRY LINE/TROUGH INTO SE KS/CNTRL OK AND POSSIBLY NW TX. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J PER KG/ AND 50-60 KT DEEP SHEAR. ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY ENHANCE TORNADO THREAT INVOF KS/MO SURFACE WAVE. STRENGTH OF DEEP SHEAR MAY ALSO SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF STORM DEVELOPMENT IN OK/NW TX. BACKING MID LVL FLOW AND RAPID INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE QUASILINEAR CLUSTERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY OVER CNTRL/SRN MO...ERN OK AND NW AR. WITH DEEP LAYER SWLY SHEAR INCREASING TO AOA 60 KTS...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS LIKELY WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS...HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. FARTHER S...A LOW PROBABILITY WILL EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FROM SE MO/NE AR SWWD INTO NE TX...IN ZONE OF INCREASING LOW LVL CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. VERY STRONG /60 KT/ DEEP SWLY SHEAR AND PRESENCE OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER N /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/ SUGGEST A THREAT FOR EARLY MORNING TORNADOES...IF STORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP IN MODERATELY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. IF THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SUCH DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MORE CERTAIN LATER TODAY...PARTS OF ERN OK/AR AND PERHAPS NE TX MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS. ...SE CO/SW KS/OK-TX PNHDL RGN... MID LVL COOLING/FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH E/NELY LOW LVL WINDS/WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IN IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS OVER SRN PARTS OF THE CNTRL HI PLNS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP SE INTO WRN/CNTRL OK AND NW TX THURSDAY MORNING. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 03/08/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 8 16:26:15 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2006 11:26:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060308162844.91F32D4A5A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081626 SWODY1 SPC AC 081624 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1024 AM CST WED MAR 08 2006 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF ERN OK/WRN AR/NERN TX AND NWRN LA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS NEWD INTO MID MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AS A POTENT S/WV TROUGH AND STRONG JET MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES THIS AM OUT INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TONIGHT. CURRENTLY SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KS WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING WSWWD INTO SRN CO. DRY LINE FROM SURFACE LOW TRAILS SWWD INTO WRN OK AND SWRN TX. SRN ROCKIES TROUGH ENTERS PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PROVIDING INCREASING LARGE SCALE UPWARD MOTION AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS. CURRENT SURFACE LOW KS CONTINUES ENEWD ALONG STALLED FRONTAL ZONE THRU MID MS VALLEY WHILE A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT ACROSS SRN OK IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF STRONG TROUGH. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD E OF DRY LINE THRU SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VALLEY NWD TO MID MS VALLEY. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD ACROSS WARM SECTOR WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AS WELL AS PROVIDING A CAP ON SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY. COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO AS CURRENT ACTIVE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MID MS VALLEY WILL STEADILY EVOLVE INTO MORE SURFACE BASED STORMS ALONG AND JUST S OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000 J/KG OR GREATER FROM MO SWWD INTO NRN TX DURING AFTERNOON ALONG WITH FAVORABLY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES FOR ROTATING STORMS...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS CAP WEAKENS...PARTICULARLY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND VICINITY DRY LINE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE GREATEST POTENTIAL INITIALLY...HOWEVER GIVEN SHEAR ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AS VERY POTENT LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS/KINEMATICS SET UP AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SRN OK. WITH LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO 60 PLUS KTS ERN TX INTO AR...80-100KT MID LEVEL JET ROTATING EWD ACROSS TX...SHEAR PROFILES BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTENSE SQUALL LINE PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z FROM ERN OK INTO N TX. SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INTENSE WIND PROFILES AND AVAILABILITY OF RICH GULF AIR MASS. ADDITIONALLY A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE WITH POTENTIAL OF STRONG TORNADOES. ERN PORTIONS OF SRN PLAINS HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO MDT RISK...PRIMARILY FOR THE ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR LATER TONIGHT AND INTO DAY 2. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 03/08/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 8 20:04:53 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2006 15:04:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060308200718.29FA0D4565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 082002 SWODY1 SPC AC 082001 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0201 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...OZARKS AND MID MS VALLEY... ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY... A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL DEEPEN AND AMPLIFY...MOVING EWD INTO THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A LEAD SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WEST TX WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES ACROSS OK AND ERN KS AHEAD OF A DRYLINE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. PROFILERS FROM CNTRL OK TO ERN KS CURRENTLY SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 60 TO 70 KT WHICH COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REMAIN DISCREET HAVING A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. THE BAND OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...RESULTING IN RAPID INITIATION OF STORMS AS THE DRYLINE SWEEPS EWD INTO ERN OK...NE TX AND WRN AR. SEVERE EVENT COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME WITH A LINEAR MCS DEVELOPING. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS MO AND IL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE IN THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE LIKELY THREATS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST ESPECIALLY NEAR OR AHEAD OF A SFC LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN MO AND IL OVERNIGHT. ...CO/NE NM/OK PANHANDLE... A FEW STORMS MAY INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN CO AND NE NM LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG THE AXIS OF A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL. THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE AREA. ...PACIFIC NW COAST... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL AMPLIFY AND APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL FORECASTS STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL AREAS. ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL SEVERE STORM MAY DEVELOP...COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK AREA ATTM. ..BROYLES.. 03/08/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 00:58:35 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2006 19:58:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060309010100.F1B7FD4A79@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090058 SWODY1 SPC AC 090057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN TX...ERN/SRN OK EXTREME SERN KS/NWRN AR AND SWRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY... ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS NEWD INTO MID MS VALLEY... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ERN CO INTO SRN NM AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE ESEWD INTO WRN OK/TX BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EJECTING NEWD OUT OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS WRN TX THIS EVENING. A 90-100 KT MID LEVEL JET... ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...IS PROGGED TO MOVE FROM SWRN TX INTO ERN OK OVERNIGHT. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER SWRN TX ARE LIKELY REFLECTIVE OF THE STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADING INTO THAT REGION. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED FROM NRN TX NEWD INTO IA AND THESE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN NUMBER AND STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET MAX EJECT NEWD. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 55-75 KT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AFTER O3Z ACROSS NRN TX/ERN OK/SERN KS AND MO AS LARGE SCALE LIFTING STRENGTHENS AS A DRYLINE/ COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM ERN KS SWWD INTO WRN TX... BEGINS MOVING EWD. STRONG VEERING WINDS IN THE LOWER 1 TO 3 KM WOULD SUPPORT TORNADOES IN CELLULAR STORMS...AND ONE OR TWO OF THE TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN OK AND INTO EXTREME NWRN AR AND SWRN MO. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE FORCING BECOMES MORE LINEAR LATER TONIGHT AS THE WINDS ALOFT BACK AND BECOME MORE SLY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN STORMS EVOLVING INTO A LINE AND THEN MOVING RAPIDLY ENEWD AS A LINEAR MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY AFTER 06Z. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED IN THE ERN HALF OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA. FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS SERN IA AND IL...50-60 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET LIFTING NWD OVER A WARM FRONT IN NRN MO/SRN IL MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL. ..IMY.. 03/09/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 06:00:48 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 01:00:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060309060316.B5DBAD4A79@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090600 SWODY1 SPC AC 090559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA...SRN AR...MS..WRN TN...WRN KY AND NWRN AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THAT SURROUNDS THE MODERATE RISK FROM ERN TX NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...SWD INTO AL AND GA... SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE TODAY AND THIS EVENING ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE EJECTED FROM WRN TX NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AS A 100-110 KT MID LEVEL JET MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...RESULTING IN THE SYSTEM TO BECOME STRONGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED. ...LOWER AND MID MS/TN VALLEY REGION... NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS TX/OK WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY NEWD INTO AR/MO/ERN OK BY MORNING. FAVORABLE STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT ONGOING SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE STORMS DEVELOP/SHIFT NEWD THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. STRONGER CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN TX AS MID LEVEL SPEED MAX AND STRONG THERMAL TROUGH PUNCH RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY...PLUS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO LIFT NEGATIVELY TILTED INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY SHOULD RESULT IN STORMS TO INTENSIFY ACROSS LA BY MIDDAY AND THEN SPREAD RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS MS/AR/AL/TN/SERN MO/WRN KY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE BACKING WINDS ALOFT AND PRONOUNCED THERMAL TROUGH...ESPECIALLY FROM AR/NRN MS NEWD SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS IN THIS AREA SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A FAST MOVING LINE. THE EXTREMELY STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS...70 KT AT 850 MB AND 110 KT AT 500 MB...AND THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. AS THE SRN END OF THE TROUGH LIFTS NEWD FROM LA NEWD ACROSS MS AND INTO NWRN AL...MORE CELLULAR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IF THE STORMS CAN REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED...INTENSE LOW/DEEP LEVEL SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT TORNADOES...SOME WHICH MAY BE QUITE STRONG. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE THE GREATEST FROM SERN AR/LA NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF MS AND NWRN AL BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z. AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT...THE STRONGER FORCING WILL BECOME MORE REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. STORMS WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT WILL SPREAD EWD INTO INTO ERN KY SWD INTO WRN GA...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. ..IMY.. 03/09/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 16:36:00 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 11:36:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060309163837.BAC0CD46A3@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091636 SWODY1 SPC AC 091635 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1035 AM CST THU MAR 09 2006 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... MORNING MODELS AND ONGOING OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO ONGOING OUTLOOK/SCENARIO ATTM. STRONG MID/UPPER SYSTEM EJECTING AS A FAST-MOVING...NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL JET MAX WITH H5 WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 KT WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE LOWER/MID MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. ...LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY INTO LOWER/MID MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS... ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING WITH DRY SLOT ALREADY SPREADING THROUGH EASTERN TX AND WESTERN AR. SUFFICIENT MOMENTUM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEHIND THUNDERSTORM LINES...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF SYSTEM...AND STRONG SHEAR WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE MULTIPLE LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINES. SHEAR IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH AREA VWP/S AND PROFILERS INDICATING 0-1/0-2 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 AND SFC-6 KM SHEAR EXCEEDING 80 KT. LIMITING FACTOR ATTM IS LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF LINE. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW DISCRETE CELLS AND A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES AHEAD AND/OR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE...HOWEVER DONT EXPECT THIS TO BE WIDESPREAD. STRONG FORCING AND STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST MULTIPLE LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE DUE TO UPPER LEVEL MOMENTUM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH QUICK MOVING STORMS. AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT...THE STRONGER FORCING WILL BECOME MORE REMOVED FROM THE INSTABILITY. STORMS WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT WILL SPREAD EWD INTO ERN KY SWD INTO WRN GA...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. ...LOWER OH/MID MS RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY MORNING STORMS CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING COOL BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WRN KY INTO CENTRAL AR. HOWEVER AS LOW CENTER DEEPENS ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...INSTABILITY AND SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES AS SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES. ..AFWA.. 03/09/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 17:12:37 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 12:12:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060309171651.38BBDD4977@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091710 SWODY1 SPC AC 091635 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1035 AM CST THU MAR 09 2006 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... MORNING MODELS AND ONGOING OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO ONGOING OUTLOOK/SCENARIO ATTM. STRONG MID/UPPER SYSTEM EJECTING AS A FAST-MOVING...NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL JET MAX WITH H5 WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 KT WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE LOWER/MID MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. ...LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY INTO LOWER/MID MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS... ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING WITH DRY SLOT ALREADY SPREADING THROUGH EASTERN TX AND WESTERN AR. SUFFICIENT MOMENTUM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEHIND THUNDERSTORM LINES...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF SYSTEM...AND STRONG SHEAR WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE MULTIPLE LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINES. SHEAR IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH AREA VWP/S AND PROFILERS INDICATING 0-1/0-2 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 AND SFC-6 KM SHEAR EXCEEDING 80 KT. LIMITING FACTOR ATTM IS LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF LINE. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW DISCRETE CELLS AND A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES AHEAD AND/OR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE...HOWEVER DONT EXPECT THIS TO BE WIDESPREAD. STRONG FORCING AND STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST MULTIPLE LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE DUE TO UPPER LEVEL MOMENTUM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH QUICK MOVING STORMS. AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT...THE STRONGER FORCING WILL BECOME MORE REMOVED FROM THE INSTABILITY. STORMS WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT WILL SPREAD EWD INTO ERN KY SWD INTO WRN GA...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. ...LOWER OH/MID MS RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY MORNING STORMS CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING COOL BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WRN KY INTO CENTRAL AR. HOWEVER AS LOW CENTER DEEPENS ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...INSTABILITY AND SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES AS SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES. ..AFWA.. 03/09/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 20:07:16 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 15:07:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060309201050.67C33D4939@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 092007 SWODY1 SPC AC 092006 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 0206 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LWR/MID MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTL GULF COAST NORTH INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY... ...LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY INTO LOWER/MID MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS... EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE ONGOING AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MDT RISK WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST. A WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS POSITIONED JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE...AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT S/W TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS GOING INTO THE EVENING. DESPITE VERY FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES...EVIDENT BY LARGE LOW LVL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE/0-1KM SRH GRTR THAN 300 M2 S-2/AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 60 KTS...THE TORNADO THREAT HAS BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR DUE TO THE LINEAR MODE OF CONVECTION OVER THE MDT RISK. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS LEWP/BOWING STRUCTURES WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK OF TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...MORE DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER SOUTHER/EASTERN LA DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND THESE STORMS MAY POSE A TORNADO RISK AS WELL. OTHERWISE...STRONG LOW/MID LVL WIND FIELDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN ENHANCED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...S/W TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY EJECT TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN SVR WX THREAT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ...EASTERN OK/NORTHERN AR/SOUTHERN MO... SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S AND STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD MID LVL AIRMASS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOP CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT AN ORGANIZED SVR RISK IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELLS OVER THIS REGION. ..AFWA.. 03/09/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 10 01:00:23 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 20:00:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060310010300.6C0F9D4964@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100100 SWODY1 SPC AC 100058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS SWD INTO AL/GA... ...TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS SWD INTO AL AND GA... AT 0030Z...SQUALL LINE WAS MOVING EWD AT 50-55 KT THROUGH KY/ERN TN AND ERN AL. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY PER EVENING SOUNDINGS... STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW LOCATED IN SRN MO...PLUS EXTREMELY INTENSE WIND FIELDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE ALONG THE FAST MOVING LINE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER... THE WIND THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND THE FORCED LINE MOVES INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. UNDER THE MO UPPER LOW...500 MB TEMPERATURES FROM -20C TO 22C AND DAYTIME HEATING PROVIDED FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG LOW LEVEL VEERING WIND PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH SEVERE HAIL...WIND AND A TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS SERN MO/WRN KY NWRN TN/SRN IL THIS EVENING... REFERENCE WW 54. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG FORCING...ACCOMPANYING PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MAINTENANCE OF A MOIST BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A WIND THREAT...AND POSSIBLY A SMALL TORNADO THREAT...AS FAR NORTHEAST AS SWRN OH BY LATE TONIGHT. ..IMY.. 03/10/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 10 16:44:22 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 10 Mar 2006 11:44:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060310164640.1CA63D4977@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101644 SWODY1 SPC AC 101642 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1042 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2006 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA... ONGOING BAND OF TSTMS CONTINUES AT MIDDAY WITHIN A SOUTHWEST- NORTHEAST ORIENTED AXIS...ALONG EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FROM SOUTH/EAST OF MOBILE AL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL GA. WHILE SOME ISOLD SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST WITH THESE ONGOING TSTMS...PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ACTIVITY WITHIN PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION/GULF MOISTURE INFLUX REGIME FROM SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AL WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT/THREAT WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAREST THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON...NAMELY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF AL/MS AND ERN LA...WITH DEVELOPMENT NORTHWARD ACROSS REMAINDER OF AL/MS AND AR INTO TONIGHT. KINEMATICS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ISOLD TORNADOES POSSIBLE GIVEN THE RATHER MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ...OZARKS AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY... ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS EVENING INVOF THE OZARKS REGION...AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY VIA BROAD 50 KT SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CORES. ..GUYER/THOMPSON.. 03/10/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 10 20:06:27 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 10 Mar 2006 15:06:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060310200851.B2125D45A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 102006 SWODY1 SPC AC 102005 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU... ...OZARKS/MID MS VALLEY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS REGION WITH A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT OVER WCNTRL TX. MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F ARE ADVECTING NWD ACROSS ECNTRL TX AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE MOISTURE MOVES INTO NE TX AND SE OK THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NE TX THIS EVENING SHOW MUCAPE VALUES INCREASING INTO THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KT. THIS WOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE AND TRACK NEWD ACROSS THE REGION AS THE NEW MODEL RUNS SUGGEST. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS. THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS AN MCS DEVELOPS AND EXPANDS NEWD. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF HAIL REPORTS APPEAR MOST LIKELY ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM FORT WORTH TX ACROSS CNTRL AR INTO FAR SE MO. ...TN VALLEY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS EAST TX. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS LA...MS AND AL TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND MOISTURE ADVECTS NWD ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 03Z TO 06Z SHOW MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG IN CNTRL MS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 60 KT. THIS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH DISCRETE STORMS ALTHOUGH MULTICELLS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY AS AN MCS DEVELOPS AND MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE MCS MOVES NEWD AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN THE 07Z TO 09Z TIMEFRAME. ...CA COAST/SACRAMENTO VALLEY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST COAST. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SPREADING SEWD ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...STEEP LAPSE MID LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT MAY RESULT IN A FEW HAIL STORMS BEFORE CONVECTION WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 03/10/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 01:01:30 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 10 Mar 2006 20:01:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060311010348.DB75CD4964@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110101 SWODY1 SPC AC 110059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SERN OK AND NERN TX INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY... ...LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY THROUGH WRN TN VALLEY... A WARM FRONT MARKED BY A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT EXTENDS FROM S CNTRL AL WWD THROUGH CNTRL MS...NRN LA AND INTO NERN TX WHERE IT INTERSECTS A DRYLINE. S OF THE WARM FRONT DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL ADVECT NWD TONIGHT WITH MOST PRONOUNCED THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECTED INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN TO 50+ KT. A FEW STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE ZONE OF THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG MOISTURE GRADIENT FROM S CNTRL MS EWD INTO W CNTRL AL. HOWEVER...EXPECT STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP FARTHER W INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...AND THETA-E ADVECTION AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...NERN TX AND SERN OK... AN ISOLATED STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE RED RIVER ALONG THE TX/OK BORDER JUST NE OF GAINSVILLE. THIS STORM HAS DEVELOPED WHERE MIXING HAS WEAKENED THE CAP ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S. STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THIS AREA WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OR SO WITH A THREAT OF PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO DECOUPLE AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES IT MAY BECOME DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN SURFACE BASED STORMS. ..DIAL.. 03/11/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 05:56:54 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 00:56:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060311055909.3CC53D4565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110557 SWODY1 SPC AC 110555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH PARTS OF THE MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN THIRD. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE NEWD ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH...PRIMARILY THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY THIS PERIOD. ONE SUCH IMPULSE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO MN SATURDAY. COLD FRONT TO SHIFT SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID/UPPER MS VALLEY IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. THE DRYLINE WILL PERSIST FROM CNTRL TX NWD THROUGH E CNTRL OK AND INTO SERN KS WHERE IT WILL INTERSECT WITH THE SEWD ADVANCING FRONT. ...ERN PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES AREAS... STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY SATURDAY RESULTING IN RAPID ADVECTION OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY THIS PERIOD. ONE BRANCH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT NWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY WITH SOME THREAT FOR HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS...DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECT NWD UNDERNEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES. MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY. STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP ALONG SEWD ADVANCING FRONT AS WELL AS ALONG DRYLINE FROM PARTS OF IA SWWD INTO ERN OK AND NERN TX. OTHER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AS CAP WEAKENS. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES WITH VERY LARGE HAIL LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE LOW JET STRENGTHENS AND ENHANCES LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. TORNADO THREAT COULD ALSO BE ENHANCED BY ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY LEFT OVER FROM MORNING STORMS. ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS IT ADVANCES EWD WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE OH VALLEY. PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...CNTRL THROUGH SRN CA... COLD AIR ALOFT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH SRN CA THROUGH SATURDAY UNDERNEATH LARGE UPPER TROUGH. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE...AND AS AFTERNOON HEATING COMMENCES...MUCAPES TO 500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH SATURDAY. SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST OVER SRN CA ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH FOR A THREAT OF LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..DIAL/GRAMS.. 03/11/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 12:28:06 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 07:28:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060311123021.E5B18D4712@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111228 SWODY1 SPC AC 111226 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0626 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FAR ERN OK/NERN TX ACROSS MUCH OF AR... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN SRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY EWD INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN CA... ...ERN SRN PLAINS/MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE U.S. WILL REMAIN DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AHEAD OF WHICH A LARGE SWATH OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SWLY WINDS HAS OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL U.S.. SEVERAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT NEWD AWAY FROM THIS FEATURE AND ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS BROAD WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THESE FEATURES WELL THE PAST DAY OR SO...BUT THESE COULD IMPACT HOW SEVERE THREAT UNFOLDS TODAY. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE HAS ENHANCED ONGOING STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER THE MID SOUTH INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LIFTING NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF KY/IND/OH THROUGH THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN COMPLICATED BY EARLIER CONVECTION... THOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MID MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME BETTER FOCUSED ESEWD FROM A LOW CENTER NEAR THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY MAY DELAY OR RE-FOCUS THIS FEATURE FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IL/SRN IA. ANOTHER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN AR INTO SWRN MO THROUGH THE DAY. THOUGH THESE FEATURES MAY INHIBIT ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN NORTH OF OZARKS/MID MS RIVER VALLEY...RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH OVER ERN OK INTO THE MID SOUTH WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 65F. REGARDLESS...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR MODEST INSTABILITY AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MID WEST INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY LATER TODAY. CAPPING MAY BE PROBLEMATIC OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY UNDER A RELATIVELY STRONG ELEVATED-MIXED LAYER NOW IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF HEATING AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 18Z-21Z ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHEAR WILL REMAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS AND LINES AS ACTIVITY INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SEVERE THREAT SPREADING EWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE MOST INTENSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REMAIN CONFINED TO GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FROM FAR ERN/SERN OK AND POSSIBLY NERN TX ACROSS AR...AND WE HAVE PLACED GREATEST SEVERE RISK AND HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACCORDINGLY. HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD A DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF CAPE AND SHEAR /MLCAPE GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KT/...WHICH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT TORNADIC SUPERCELLS SHOULD CAP BREAK AS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DISCRETE WITH SUBSEQUENT ENHANCED RISK OF TORNADOES GIVEN FORECAST 200+ M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS. ...SRN CA... VERY COLD STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES EXPECTED NEAR THE SRN CA COAST. STORMS PRODUCED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO ON FRIDAY. INSTABILITY MAY BE GREATER TODAY...AND THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD WITH STRONGER CORES PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS/TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ..EVANS/GRAMS.. 03/11/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 16:24:04 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 11:24:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060311162616.D3D99D4712@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111624 SWODY1 SPC AC 111622 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1022 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN OK...MUCH OF AR NEWD INTO SRN/ERN MO SRN IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO NRN MS VALLEY AND WRN OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS COASTAL AREAS OF SRN CA... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE COLD TROUGH OVER WRN U.S. WITH A VERY STRONG POLAR JET EXTENDING AROUND TROUGH FROM SRN CA ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES. EMBEDDED FAST MOVING S/WV TROUGHS MOVING ALONG THE JET WITH ONE EXITING NEWD THRU NRN MS VALLEY...ANOTHER WEAKER IMPULSE SRN HIGH PLAINS WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AMPLIFIES FURTHER OVER SWRN U.S. AT THE SURFACE...LOW IN MN MOVES NEWD INTO WRN ONTARIO WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT THRU ERN KS THEN WSWWD INTO TX PANHANDLE. FRONT MOVES INTO WRN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WHILE WRN PORTION STALLS AS PRESSURES FALL AGAIN LEE OF CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF MAJOR WRN TROUGH. DRY LINE INITIALLY ERN KS CENTRAL OK/NRN TX WILL MIX A LITTLE E BY THIS AFTERNOON. RICH GULF AIR MASS HAS BEEN SURGING NWD OVERNIGHT THRU ERN SRN PLAINS/LWR/MID MS VALLEY AND COMBINED WITH WARM ADVECTION ON STRONG LLJ...PRODUCED LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER OH VALLEY. ...CENTRAL U.S... WITH LEAD TROUGH MOVING NEWD INTO SRN CANADA...NO STRONG UPPER IMPULSE TO KEY ON TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL BE RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING. HOWEVER THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE VIGOROUS POLAR JET DOES SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE AREA E OF COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE BEGINNING BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH MID/UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS SURGING NWD INTO MID MS/LWR OH VALLEYS BY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 7 C/KM PLUS LAPSE RATES...MLCAPES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1500 J/KG MID MS VALLEY TO ABOVE 2000 J/KG AR SWD THRU LOWER MS VALLEY/ERN SRN PLAINS. THE WEAK IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF TX COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING AND GENERALLY WEAK CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS STORM INITIATION WILL OCCUR VICINITY COLD FRONT AND DOWN DRY LINE FROM MO INTO ERN OK BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 50KT WITH LOW LEVEL ENHANCED SHEAR PARTICULARLY VICINITY THE SUBTLE WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIE ACROSS MID MS VALLEY. WHILE VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE MOST COMMON THREAT...THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALSO SUPPORT TORNADOS WITH POSSIBLY OF A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES BY THIS EVENING. HAVE EXPANDED THE MDT RISK NWD INTO MID MS VALLEY BASED ON EXPECTED GREATER DESTABILIZATION INTO THIS AREA THAN ORIGINALLY FORECASTED. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AFTER DARK SPREADING EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY WITH SLOW LESSENING OF POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE STABILIZATION. ...SRN CA... THE VERY COLD STORM SYSTEM REMAINS ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES EXPECTED NEAR THE SRN CA COAST. SMALL SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY TO FORM OVER RELATIVELY WARMER OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE INSTABILITY IS THE GREATEST AND THEN MOVE ONSHORE...PARTICULARLY ORANGE/SAN DIEGO COUNTIES WHERE STORMS WILL HAVE GREATEST OVERWATER TRAJECTORY. IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...WATERSPOUTS AND BRIEF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE MINI-SUPERCELLS. ..HALES/GUYER.. 03/11/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 20:01:15 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 15:01:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060311200326.CEADBD4968@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 112000 SWODY1 SPC AC 111959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK...AR...MO AND IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN CA... ...MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN OK. THIS FEATURE WILL FOCUS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AS IT MOVES NEWD ACROSS ERN OK...NW AR AND MO LATE THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING STORM COVERAGE TO QUICKLY EXPAND. A LARGE MCS ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A BROAD WARM SECTOR EXISTS ACROSS THE ERN PART OF THE SRN PLAINS EXTENDING NNEWD ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU AND LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY. THE AIRMASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES GENERALLY RANGING FROM 50 KT ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU TO 70 KT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. THIS SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH STORMS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE. AS STORM COVERAGE EXPANDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BOW ECHOES AND MULTICELLS WILL BECOME LIKELY WITH LINEAR STORM CLUSTERS. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS MO...ERN OK...WRN AR AND NE TX WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE. A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE WILL EXPAND EWD AS A LARGE LINEAR MCS DEVELOPS THIS EVENING AND MOVES ACROSS MO...IL AND WRN AR. A FEW SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS AND/OR WITH THE STRONGER BOW ECHOES EMBEDDED IN OR AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE IN THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME EXTENDING NEWD FROM NRN AR ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN MO INTO THE ST. LOUIS AREA. THE BROAD WARM SECTOR SUGGESTS A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LINEAR MCS AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND NEARS THE MS RIVER LATE TONIGHT. ...CALIFORNIA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ORE COAST WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSEWD ALONG THE CA COAST. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH THE TROUGH WILL MAKE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY TO THE LA BASIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH 500 MB TEMPS FROM -30 TO -35 C. THIS SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS SRN CA WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 40 KT. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. ..BROYLES.. 03/11/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 01:08:18 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 20:08:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060312011030.AC2EED4932@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120108 SWODY1 SPC AC 120107 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0707 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR NRN AR/SRN-ERN MO/CENTRAL-SRN IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN OK NEWD TO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...ERN SRN PLAINS/MS RIVER VALLEY INTO OH RIVER VALLEY... VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WRN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS ONTARIO. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WAS ANALYZED AT 00Z TRAILING SWD THROUGH WI TO WRN IL AND THEN SWWD THROUGH MO TO ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. THE NRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...REACHING LOWER MI TO NWRN IND BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT EXTENDED WITH THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY. LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NEXT UPSTREAM SPEED MAX CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE SRN PLAINS. SSWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT TO 50 KT WILL ALLOW MOISTURE RETURN TO CONTINUE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS REACHING WRN OH BY 12Z SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG THE LLJ AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF ERN OK/CENTRAL-NRN AR/SRN MO NEWD TO WRN OH. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS STRONG OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SLIGHT/MODERATE RISK AREAS FOR SUPERCELLS. FAIRLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT... ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO REMAIN A THREAT. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER INTO IND/OH OVERNIGHT...STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG MOISTURE RETURN WITH LLJ NOSING INTO WRN OH LATE TONIGHT MAY ALLOW SEVERE STORMS TO REACH THIS REGION. ...SRN CA... OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING/ OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. ..PETERS.. 03/12/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 06:05:38 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 01:05:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060312060749.3BB7BD46A8@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120605 SWODY1 SPC AC 120603 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN MO INTO SERN IA AND PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL IL... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM AR NWD TO SRN IA AND EWD INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM NERN TX TO THE MID MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS AND SRN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MO AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS... STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH 100+ KT MID LEVEL JET... CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...WILL TRACK NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TODAY REACHING THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z MONDAY. 60-120 METER HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED WITH THIS TROUGH AS IT TRACKS NEWD WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG SSWLY LLJ /50+ KT/ FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER STRENGTHENING /60-80 KT/ OF THIS LLJ IS EXPECTED SECOND HALF OF FORECAST PERIOD AS IT VEERS TO SWLY FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY/ LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY EXTEND FROM LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TO OK...AND THEN WNWWD TO A SURFACE LOW OVER ERN CO. THIS BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT TODAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS TRANSLATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK EWD ACROSS NRN KS REACHING FAR NRN MO BY 00Z...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN PARTS OF IL/IN/OH. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SWD ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRY LINE ACROSS FAR ERN PARTS OF KS/OK INTO NERN TX ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD ZONE OF RICH MOISTURE RETURN...ALREADY UNDERWAY AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NWD TODAY FROM THE SERN PLAINS/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S SHOULD REACH AS FAR NORTH AS SERN MO/PARTS OF SRN IL...WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY EWD TO WRN PA. WHILE CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SRN PLAINS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY...MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY FREE OF CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION. WITH INSOLATION...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON NOSE OF RETURNING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG IN SURFACE WARM SECTOR. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY LIKELY BEING DISCRETE FROM THE SURFACE LOW SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE. STRONG LLJ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTING TORNADOES...SOME STRONG TO SIGNIFICANT ACROSS CENTRAL/ NRN MO INTO SERN IA AND WRN/CENTRAL IL. IN ADDITION...GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. INITIAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE THIS EVENING SPREADING EWD FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE OH RIVER VALLEY WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE GREATER THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO IND/WRN KY. ..PETERS/GRAMS.. 03/12/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 12:31:22 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 07:31:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060312123334.CC581D4249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121231 SWODY1 SPC AC 121229 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0629 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NRN/CENTRAL MO...FAR SERN IA INTO W-CENTRAL IL... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID SOUTH/OH RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE NATION/S MID SECTION... ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK STILL ANTICIPATED TODAY... OVERNIGHT MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SLOWING DOWN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. 06Z NAM AND GFS ALONG WITH 09Z RUC DEVELOP SURFACE LOW INTO NWRN KS THRU 21Z...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS NWRN MO EARLY THIS EVENING AND INTO SRN WI OVERNIGHT. THUS WILL SHIFT SEVERE THREAT AREAS A BIT WEST AS COMPARED TO EARLIER OUTLOOK. ELEVATED SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN KS THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG LLJ AXIS. LARGE HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE VERY LARGE...MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. THE EARLY DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE DRY LINE RAISES SOME CONCERN ABOUT QUALITY OF AIR MASS AVAILABLE FOR LATER SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...AIR MASS WILL RECOVER QUICKLY EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MO RIVER VALLEY BY 21Z...AS WRN END OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY NEAR THE OZARKS ERODES. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...SRN AND ERN MOST STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE BASED DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTO SERN KS/NERN OK ALONG DRY LINE. LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MORE THAN OPTIMAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HODOGRAPHS. THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACK TORNADOES WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS MUCH OF MO/POSSIBLY FAR SERN IA AND INTO WRN IL THROUGH THE EVENING. MOST LIKELY AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NWD AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW CENTER TO NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER BY THIS EVENING. HERE LOW LEVEL SSELY WINDS WILL BE MAXIMIZED...AND AN OUTBREAK OF DAMAGING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IS MORE LIKELY. AS STORMS CROSS THE WARM FRONT AND DEVELOP NWD WITHIN ENHANCED ASCENT INTO MORE OF IA...EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS ENHANCING THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT EWD ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF TORNADOES WHERE STORMS CAN ROOT NEAR THE SURFACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. FARTHER SOUTH INTO ERN OK AND NERN TX...INITIATION SHOULD BE DRIVEN BY HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF DRY LINE AS CAPPING HOLDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THOUGH THIS REGION WILL REMAIN REMOVED FROM GREATEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY VOLATILE COMBINATION OF 2000+ J/KG MLCAPES AND 50+ KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. IN ADDITION...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN DISCRETE. THEREFORE...TORNADIC SUPERCELL THREAT...INCLUDING THE THREAT OF LONG-LIVED TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL SPREAD ACROSS SRN MO/AR AND INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY WELL AFTER DARK. ..EVANS/GRAMS.. 03/12/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 17:13:35 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 12:13:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060312171543.E17C2D4968@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121710 SWODY1 SPC AC 121708 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS...MUCH OF MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST IOWA...AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS..ARKANSAS..MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA...ILLINOIS...INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL SHIFT ENEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY THIS PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD /H5 JET 100 TO 120 KT/. AT THE SURFACE...WELL-DEVELOPED LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ENEWD OUT OF ERN CO...WHILE WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDING W-E ACROSS SRN KS/SRN MO MOVES NWD WITH TIME. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH DRYLINE ALSO FORECAST TO ACT AS A CONVECTIVE FOCUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MIXES EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTO ERN OK/SERN KS. ...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS... VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES -- 8 TO 8.5 C/KM IN THE 850 TO 500 LAYER ACCORDING TO MORNING RAOBS -- WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS A MOIST WARM SECTOR /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S/ THIS PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL JET ADVECTING WARM/MOIST AIR ISENTROPICALLY NWD INTO NRN KS/NRN MO COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES HAS YIELDED A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED SUPERCELLS...WHICH HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. SUPERCELLS/SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST/SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ALONG AND N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK MOVES EWD INTO THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE...DRYLINE NOW LYING ACROSS WRN OK/WRN N TX WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT MIXES EWD ACROSS N TX/OK/SERN KS INTO DESTABILIZING AIRMASS /1500 TO 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/. THOUGH WARM SECTOR AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED ATTM...DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR BY 20-21Z. AS STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLYS SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR ABOVE 35 TO 50 KT SLY/SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET...VERY FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT INTENSE SUPERCELLS -- PARTICULARLY GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. ATTM...AREA OF MAXIMUM SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST FROM ERN KS ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN MO INTO SERN IA/W CENTRAL AND NWRN IL. WITH SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO SHIFT ENEWD WITH TIME ACROSS THIS REGION...BACKING LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR -- AND ELY WINDS N OF WARM FRONT -- WILL YIELD VERY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF VIOLENT/LONG-TRACK TORNADOES ALONG A BROAD AXIS ON EITHER SIDE OF WARM FRONT. ALONG WITH TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MORE SLY -- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW LESS INTENSE -- FURTHER S ACROSS ERN OK AND INTO N TX...SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS. GIVEN DEGREE OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONG/DAMAGING TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED...ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. EXPECT STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE...EVOLVING INTO ONE OR MORE SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS. ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT AS FAR E AS SRN LOWER MI/NRN OH. FURTHER S...DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS MO/ERN OK/NERN TX THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT SHOULD OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MO...WHERE SQUALL LINE SHOULD EVOLVE. ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR VERY STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS LIKELY. A MORE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EWD OVERNIGHT FROM ERN OK AND NERN TX ACROSS AR/NRN LA AND TO THE MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 03/12/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 20:07:09 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 15:07:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060312200916.99CD5D43A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 122006 SWODY1 SPC AC 122004 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS..MUCH OF MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST IOWA..AND WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA..FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS..ARKANSAS..SOUTHEAST MISSOURI..EASTERN/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS..INDIANA..AND NORTH CENTRAL/WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES... ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE US IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD AS VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAK WILL RESULT IN AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO NWRN KS THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING ENEWD ACROSS IA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WELL-DEFINED DRY LINE CURRENTLY EXTENDING NORTH/SOUTH FROM ERN KS ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO WRN PARTS OF CENTRAL WILL MIX EWD THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY A FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD TONIGHT REACHING A CENTRAL IL/CENTRAL AR/SOUTH CENTRAL TX LINE BY 13/12Z. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE LOW EWD ACROSS NRN KS AND NRN MO WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NWD IN ADVANCE OF THE...ALTHOUGH NWD PROGRESS MAY BE INITIALLY SLOWED BY COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER IA. ...ERN PART OF CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS ACROSS MID MS VALLEY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO OK SHORTLY. 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDINGS AT OUN AND SGF SHOW MOIST LAYER AROUND 1 KM DEEP WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700-750 MB...CONTRIBUTING TO UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. MINIMAL CAP ON THE SOUNDINGS INDICATES STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN RESPONSE TO INSOLATION AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ON THE DRY LINE. VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /50-60 KT OVER THE LOWEST 6 KM/ ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS. STRONG LOW LEVEL SRH OF 150-300 MS/S2 COUPLED WITH FAVORABLY LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...INCLUDING THREAT FOR SEVERAL LONG-TRACK STRONG-VIOLENT TORNADOES. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. FARTHER NORTH...CLOUDS ARE DIMINISHING ALONG THE WARM FRONT FROM NERN KS INTO WEST CENTRAL MO INDICATING HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ARE INCREASING OVER THIS AREA. THIS WILL SPREAD INTO NRN MO AND PERHAPS SRN IA/WEST CENTRAL IL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS ALONG/NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE FURTHER ENHANCING SHEAR/HELICITY MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP. ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL INTERACTING WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT /INCLUDING A FEW SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES/ IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FROM THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE BANDS OR CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS THEY MOVE EWD TOWARD THE MS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT MAY TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AFTER 06Z...THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY SUGGESTS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH BOWS OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS. ..WEISS.. 03/12/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 01:03:29 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 20:03:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060313010537.04251D4249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130103 SWODY1 SPC AC 130101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0701 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS...MUCH OF MISSOURI...EXTREME SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS...ARKANSAS...AND SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA FROM EASTERN KANSAS TO WESTERN INDIANA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA FROM THE SERN PLAINS NEWD TO THE SRN GREAT LAKES/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY... ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT... STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH ASSOCIATED 100+ KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX EXTENDING FROM ERN NM TO IA WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE NEWD OVERNIGHT TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS TROUGH/WITHIN EXIT REGION OF JET WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER MN BY 12Z MONDAY. SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL-NERN KS...IS PROGGED TO TRACK/REDEVELOP ENEWD AND STRENGTHEN SOME REACHING NRN IL TO SRN LAKE MI BY 12Z MONDAY. WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT NWD TOWARD THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW SPREADS EWD OVERTAKING THE DRY LINE WHICH EXTENDED SWD FROM ERN KS TO CENTRAL OK/TX. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NRN IL THROUGH ERN MO TO NERN TX BY 12Z MONDAY. STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS ACROSS FAR ERN KS/SERN IA THROUGH MUCH OF MO/IL AND INTO WRN IND. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY...INCLUDING A THREAT FOR SEVERAL LONG TRACK STRONG-VIOLENT TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE HIGH RISK AREA. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MODERATE/HIGH RISK AREAS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUING TO SPREAD ENEWD OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO AID IN THE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE THROUGH ERN OK TO NERN TX THIS EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING NEWD ACROSS AR/SRN MO TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT. EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES RANGING FROM 150-300 M2/S2 SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...A FEW STRONG. IN ADDITION...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE BANDS OR CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS THEY MOVE EWD TOWARD THE MS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT MAY TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AFTER 06Z...THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY SUGGESTS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH BOWS OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS. ..PETERS.. 03/13/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 06:15:47 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 01:15:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060313061843.69B34D43A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130614 SWODY1 SPC AC 130613 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF INDIANA...SRN LOWER MICHIGAN...KENTUCKY...OHIO...EXTREME NRN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WRN WEST VIRGINIA AND WRN PENNSYLVANIA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS/TN RIVER VALLEYS TO LOWER MI AND EWD TO MUCH OF NY/PA/NJ/DE/MD... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH WITH CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED TODAY AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO ERN ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 120-130 KT SWLY MID-UPPER LEVEL JET EXPECTED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER NRN IL REGION AT 12Z TODAY WILL UNDERGO STRONG DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NEWD ACROSS LOWER MI...AND THEN OCCLUDING OVER SWRN QUEBEC BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW ALONG COASTAL MA/ME AT END OF FORECAST PERIOD. ...OH RIVER VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES AND PART OF NORTHEAST STATES... COLD FRONT TRAILING SSWWD FROM THE NRN IL SURFACE LOW INTO SERN MO TO ERN TX WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEYS TODAY...REACHING WRN NEW ENGLAND SWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SWWD THROUGH SERN STATES TO NRN GULF BY 12Z TUESDAY. DESPITE SOME QUESTION WITH REGARDS TO SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY TODAY GIVEN EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS DUE TO ONGOING STORMS ATTM ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY SPREADING EWD...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN ONGOING LINE OF STORMS TO TRACK EWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES/OH RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...WITH SECONDARY LINE OF STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD AS NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF INITIAL ACTIVITY. 00Z WRF-NMM SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE STORMS WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY INTO SRN LOWER MI INTO THE AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...BUT THE GREATEST THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. 50-60 KT SWLY LLJ ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING INTO CENTRAL PA WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS EXISTS INTO PARTS OF NY AFTER DARK GIVEN SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. ...ERN PA TO PARTS OF DELMARVA... WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT NWD INTO UPSTATE NY TO OFF THE MA COAST BY 00Z...WITH A SECOND WARM FRONT/SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS NRN TO ERN PA TO NJ LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE INTERSECTION OF THIS LATTER BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN PA WITH A LEE TROUGH MAY SUPPORT A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...GIVEN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES ENHANCING THE TORNADO POTENTIAL. ...TN/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEYS INTO SRN APPALACHIANS... ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATED STRONGER MASS FIELDS WILL BE FOCUSED FARTHER TO THE NORTH...GREATER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED FROM TN SWD GIVEN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE TN/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEYS. ..PETERS/GRAMS.. 03/13/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 13:03:44 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 08:03:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060313130639.29AFED42D3@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131300 SWODY1 SPC AC 131258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND LWR GREAT LAKES REGION...FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A CONTINUING SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE NRN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... A BROAD COLD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF THE WESTERN STATES. THE POLAR TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM...AND PROGRESS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK HAS LIFTED OUT OF THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE... INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE NOW APPROACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER UPSTREAM IMPULSE ALREADY APPEARS TO LIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD...IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO EASTERN ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. WHILE FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION ...UNCERTAINTIES ARE ARISING WHICH COULD POSSIBLY LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. A RETURN FLOW OF 60F+ DEW POINTS IS OCCURRING OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH ANOTHER RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES. HOWEVER...COLD CORE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LAG WARM SECTOR THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FROM THE PLATEAU REGION IS BEING SUPPRESSED. FURTHER COMPLICATING MATTERS...CLOUD COVER FROM WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY RESTRICT INSOLATION. ALL OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT PEAK MIXED LAYER CAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG IN A CORRIDOR AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCING TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS JUST SOUTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES. THOUGH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG... STRENGTHENING FLOW/SHEAR IN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...JUST EAST OF 100+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK SHIFTING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ...GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY... THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LIKELY TO EXIST WITH ONGOING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE NOW ADVANCING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF A 50+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL PROVIDE LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTING CONTINUING RISK FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING...ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY/OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. BEST CHANCE FOR REDEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IS EXPECTED IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE CYCLONE...ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...WHERE ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. AS COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...FORCING COULD SUPPORT SOLIDIFYING CONVECTIVE LINE WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA. ...NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES... RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG HEATING IN THE LEE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHERE SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALREADY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WELL AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER SYSTEM. AIDED BY BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE ATLANTIC...STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GULF STATES... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT GREATER THAN AREAS FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...IN NARROW PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...OVERALL POTENTIAL SEEMS LIMITED AS LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS SLOW TO WEAKEN WITH MAIN UPPER FORCING SHIFTING TO NORTH OF REGION. ..KERR/GRAMS.. 03/13/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 16:41:59 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 11:41:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060313164453.69D16D4A76@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131642 SWODY1 SPC AC 131640 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN LOWER MI..ERN INDIANA..CENTRAL/ERN KY..OH..WRN NY..WRN PA..AND WRN WV.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK EAST OF THE MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY AND NEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND ERN NY.... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS LOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ENEWD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TODAY REACHING ERN ONTARIO TONIGHT...AS 120 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK ROTATES FROM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER SRN WI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AS IT LIFTS NEWD TOWARD ERN LAKE SUPR/NRN LAKE MI THIS AFTERNOON TO NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EWD REACHING WRN LAKE ERIE/N CENTRAL KY/NRN MS/SWRN LA LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEW ENGLAND/DELMARVA/UPSTATE SC/NWRN FL LINE BY 14/12Z...AS THE NRN PART OF THE FRONT SURGES EWD MORE RAPIDLY. A WARM FRONT FROM THE DELMARVA INTO WRN NY WILL MOVE SLOWLY NWD. ...GREAT LAKES INTO OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES... MORNING CONVECTION IS CONTINUING FROM NY INTO SRN LOWER MI AND SWWD INTO THE MID SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THIS HAS SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY...WHICH WILL LIKELY INHIBIT STRONG DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 55-60F RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH A NARROW AXIS OF LOW 60S DEW POINTS MAY BE LOCATED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODEST AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY GREATER INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP ALONG/IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE A NARROW ZONE OF CLEAR SKIES AND ENHANCED INSOLATION ARE LOCATED. WINDS ALOFT ARE VERY STRONG ACROSS THE REGION WITH 12Z RAOBS AND CURRENT VWPS INDICATING 50 KT FLOW AS LOW AS 500-1000 M AGL. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG WITH 50-60 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM WHICH WILL ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. VERY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND CLOCKWISE TURNING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES... ESPECIALLY FOR ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT MAY DEVELOP. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLEX THIS AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE BANDS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE FROM RUC/ETA/AND PARALLEL NAM-WRF ALL INDICATE REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM SRN LOWER MI SSWWD INTO THE MID SOUTH DURING THE MID AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ACCELERATE EWD AS THE FRONT SURGES EWD THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS TO OCCUR AS THE MULTIPLE BANDS MOVE RAPIDLY EWD/NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION...IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE TORNADOES AND HAIL. GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION MAY SPREAD EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF A LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...TN VALLEY/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO SERN STATES... ALTHOUGH PRIMARY FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL MOVE FARTHER NORTH...THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY WARM...SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50 KT OR GREATER WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ..WEISS/GUYER.. 03/13/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 14 00:59:58 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 19:59:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060314010254.71003D48EB@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140100 SWODY1 SPC AC 140058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES NEWD TO UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY AND MUCH OF PA/SRN NY... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH TROUGH EXTENDING INTO MID MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AS IT TRACKS NEWD TOWARD SWRN QUEBEC/UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN DYNAMIC WITH STRONG WINDS AT ALL LEVELS AS 200-300 METER HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD DOWNSTREAM JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW... CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER FAR ERN U.P. OF MI...SHOULD BEGIN TO OCCLUDE OVER ERN ONTARIO TOWARD 12Z...WITH EVENTUAL COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ME COAST DURING EARLY DAY 2 PERIOD. COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD FROM THE MI LOW THROUGH ERN MI/WRN OH TO MIDDLE TN AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT REACHING THE HUDSON VALLEY SWD TO MID ATLANTIC STATES AND NERN GULF BY 12Z. ...TN VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... NWD TRANSPORT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO THE UPPER TN RIVER VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO OFFSET THE LOSS OF INSOLATION TO MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH 0-3 KM SRH VALUES RANGING FROM 200-300 M2/S2 FROM CENTRAL AL-ERN TN WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN GA...GIVEN A MORE STABLE AIR MASS PER ATL 00Z SOUNDING WHICH DETECTED A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP. FARTHER S ACROSS THE SRN PARTS OF MS/AL...WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS INDICATED ON THE SLIDELL LA 00Z SOUNDING WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH SWD EXTENT THIS EVENING. ...UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES... WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDED FROM ERN VA/MD NWD INTO ERN PA EARLY THIS EVENING AND COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A PRIMARILY ELEVATED LINE OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS EWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND NJ THIS EVENING. DOWNSTREAM SOUNDINGS AT ALB/ NYC INDICATED A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC INVERSION SUGGESTING THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED. GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS TRANSLATING EWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS PENETRATE TO THE SURFACE. FARTHER W...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...GIVEN A NARROW AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG/E OF COLD FRONT AIDING IN THIS POTENTIAL. ..PETERS.. 03/14/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 14 05:44:33 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 14 Mar 2006 00:44:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060314054727.8D1BCD4A71@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140545 SWODY1 SPC AC 140544 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE ERN U.S. TODAY. OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW AND VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED OVER SERN CANADA TODAY. SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS PROGGED ALONG THE ME COAST THIS MORNING...WITH THIS LOW BECOMING THE PRIMARY LOW AS IT DEEPENS NEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TRAILING COLD FRONT...INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SWD TO NJ AND THEN SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL NC/SC/GA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WILL PROGRESS EWD OFF THE ERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SWD THROUGH FL AFTER 00Z. IN THE WEST...A COLD UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE NRN CA/PACIFIC NW COAST...WILL DE-AMPLIFY TODAY AS IT MOVES INLAND. ...NC/SC... SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...AND THEN OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC/SERN STATES BY 12Z TODAY MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. COLDER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO LAG THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN MODEST LAPSE RATES ALONG THE COAST. DESPITE THESE LIMITING FACTORS...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE CAROLINAS AND SOME SURFACE HEATING SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 500 TO NEAR 1000 J/KG/ AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. VEERING WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TEND TO MINIMIZE CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...GIVEN HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH... FORCING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. THIS COULD ENHANCE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 40-50+ KT MEAN FLOW REGIME...CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS. ...WRN STATES... MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND OVER CENTRAL CA/SRN NV DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...REACHING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. NORTH OF THE JET AXIS...COLD-MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /SUB -30 C AT 500 MB/ WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL CA... ESPECIALLY IF PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS. COLD...STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT FAVORS HAIL WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS...BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ANYTHING LARGER THAN MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. ..PETERS/GRAMS.. 03/14/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 14 12:55:15 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 14 Mar 2006 07:55:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060314125808.DA216D48EB@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141255 SWODY1 SPC AC 141254 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 AM CST TUE MAR 14 2006 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SWRN QUEBEC WILL MOVE NEWD TODAY...WHILE A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INLAND...BUT WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. ...NC/SC/GA... AROUND SUNRISE...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR DAN TO DHN AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY OFFSHORE BY 18Z. DESPITE MORNING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S... 12Z OBSERVED AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY MINIMAL INSTABILITY...MUCAPE VALUES FROM 100 TO 300 J/KG...WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES. SINCE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING ...DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD NOT DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. ALSO...OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE VEERED TO WLY...INDICATING CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT IS WEAK. THEREFORE... EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS MINIMAL. ...NRN/CENTRAL CA... A 70 KT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL SHIFT EWD FROM CENTRAL CA INTO NV TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND. NORTH OF THE JET AXIS ...500 MB TEMPERATURES FROM -28C TO -30C WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL CA. THESE STEEP LAPSE COMBINED WITH MUCAPES FROM 200-300 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30 KT MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WITH HAIL. ..IMY/GRAMS.. 03/14/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 14 16:18:09 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 14 Mar 2006 11:18:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060314162104.6DBB5D4A8A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141617 SWODY1 SPC AC 141616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1016 AM CST TUE MAR 14 2006 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MAJOR TROUGH MOVES OFF E COAST BY THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM DEEP LOW OVER QUEBEC SWD THRU SRN NEW ENGLAND THEN SWWD FROM ERN CAROLINAS INTO NERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WRN U.S. A COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND LATE TODAY WITH SOME WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS ACROSS INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TONIGHT. WELL DEFINED COMMA CLOUD NOTED IN W/V IMAGERY OFF CA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ...NRN/CENTRAL CA... WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBS OF HAIL IN NRN/CENTRAL CA W OF SIERRAS THRU THIS EVENING GIVEN THE APPROACH OF THE VORT/SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AIR MASS IS COLD WITH 7-8C/KM LAPSE RATES. ONLY MINIMAL CAPE EXPECTED TODAY GIVEN THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS...HOWEVER WITH SOME HEATING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE NOW CROSSING THE SIERRAS...200-300 J/KG COULD DEVELOP SACRAMENTO/NRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS BY MID DAY. ADDITIONALLY SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS WOULD BE HAIL GIVEN THE VERY LOW FREEZING LEVELS. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 03/14/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 14 19:47:49 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 14 Mar 2006 14:47:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060314195040.4AA4BD4A7D@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141948 SWODY1 SPC AC 141946 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0146 PM CST TUE MAR 14 2006 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA... LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS EVIDENT BY PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE VALLEY AND THICKER CONVEYOR SHIFTING ACROSS THE SIERRAS INTO WRN NV. BENEATH THE WEAK UPPER VORT...SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. COLD THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HAIL WILL BE COMMON WITHIN DEEPER CLOUD ELEMENTS...HOWEVER HAIL SIZES SHOULD REMAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE AT BEST DUE TO MEAGER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OBSERVED. STRONG UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST AT ROUGHLY 30 KT AND WILL APPROACH THE COAST BY 00Z. THIS MAY INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF JET AXIS. ...SERN U.S... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALL BUT MOVED OFF THE NC COAST...WHILE TRAILING CONVECTION ALONG THE WIND SHIFT IS SHALLOW...PARTIALLY DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE AMID POOR LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS ALL BUT ENDED ACROSS THIS REGION. ..DARROW.. 03/14/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 15 00:41:15 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 14 Mar 2006 19:41:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060315004407.E911FD4A71@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150041 SWODY1 SPC AC 150040 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 PM CST TUE MAR 14 2006 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN/CENTRAL CA... THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING /02-03Z/ ACROSS PARTS OF NRN/CENTRAL CA. THUS...THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES. DESPITE A COLD SURFACE AIR MASS...COLD UPPER TROUGH /500 MB TEMPERATURES AOB -30 C/ TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS CA INTO NV OVERNIGHT WILL MAINTAIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT OVER CA THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG. ALTHOUGH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE NRN SIERRA MOUNTAINS...NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL CA THIS EVENING. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS SECOND IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...WHILE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BACKED WITHIN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR VALUES FOR A FEW LOW-TOPPED STORMS WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT. THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS EXPECTED TO WANE AFTER SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES REDUCING POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY. ..PETERS.. 03/15/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 15 05:56:36 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 15 Mar 2006 00:56:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060315055925.8F2EDD4645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150557 SWODY1 SPC AC 150556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 PM CST TUE MAR 14 2006 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEPART THE ERN U.S. TODAY WITHIN PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES. UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON TRANSLATING ENEWD TOWARD THE ERN DAKOTAS/MID MO RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS... SURFACE LOW WILL EMERGE FROM ERN CO TRACKING INTO KS THIS AFTERNOON. TRAILING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SPREAD EWD...EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE LOW IN SRN IA SWWD ACROSS NWRN MO TO CENTRAL OK AND NWRN TX BY 12Z THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY APPROACHING NRN BAJA...IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR EWD REACHING THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES TONIGHT. ...SRN/ERN TX AND LA... ALTHOUGH STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS AND BROAD ZONE OF WAA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL U.S. STORM SYSTEM...DESTABILIZATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS FAR NORTH. FARTHER S... MOISTURE RETURN...ALREADY UNDERWAY ALONG THE LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY...WILL SPREAD NNEWD ACROSS SRN TX TODAY...REACHING INTO ERN TX/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. SECONDARY LLJ MAX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL TX INTO NRN LA/AR TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WITH SRN STREAM IMPULSE RESULTING IN STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ATOP COOL LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS...BUT SHOULD NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE THREAT. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW COAST TODAY. VERY COLD...STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...SUGGESTS CONVECTION IS LIKELY...BUT LIGHTNING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE MARINE LAYER WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. ..PETERS/JEWELL.. 03/15/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 15 13:02:16 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 15 Mar 2006 08:02:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060315130502.68316D466B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151302 SWODY1 SPC AC 151300 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 AM CST WED MAR 15 2006 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL DRIFT SLOWLY E TO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE TODAY AS UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN MOVES E INTO NEB EARLY THURSDAY. IN THE SRN STREAM...IMPULSE NOW APPROACHING NRN BAJA SHOULD SHEAR E ACROSS SRN AZ/NM AND REACH CNTRL/N TX EARLY THURSDAY. AT LWR LVLS...LEE LOW NOW FORMING OVER THE NRN HI PLNS SHOULD REDEVELOP E/SE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS LATER TODAY...BEFORE REACHING SRN IA EARLY THURSDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW SHOULD EXTEND THROUGH SW MO...ERN OK AND W CNTRL TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...SRN/ERN TX AND LA... WARM ADVECTION/SLIGHTLY ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN WILL INCREASE OVER SRN TX TODAY...AND ACROSS E TX AND THE LWR MS VLY TONIGHT. SECONDARY LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE WILL ENHANCE UPLIFT/ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF TX AND NRN/WRN LA EARLY THURSDAY. THIS MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT YIELD A FEW AREAS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION LATER IN THE PERIOD. BUT GIVEN LIMITED STRENGTH OF FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE SRN STREAM...STRONG CAP THAT WILL BE PRESENT...AND FACT THAT PRIMARY LOW LVL MASS FLUX WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM CROSSING THE CNTRL PLNS...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER APPEARS LIMITED. ...PAC NW... SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A STRONG SPEED MAX ATTM MOVING S FROM VICINITY OF 47N/158W. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TURN E TOWARD ORE LATER TODAY...AND SHOULD NEAR THE ORE CST BY 12Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT CSTL SECTIONS OF ORE/WA TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 03/15/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 15 15:48:22 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 15 Mar 2006 10:48:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060315155115.78FA5D4A8B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151547 SWODY1 SPC AC 151546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0946 AM CST WED MAR 15 2006 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC CANADA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN IT/S WAKE...A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS A RESULT OF THIS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FURTHER WEST...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD TOWARDS THE WEST COAST LATE TONIGHT. ...PAC NW... COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT STEEP LAPSE RATES. COMBINED WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS AND CYCLONIC LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW...THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISO-SCT CONVECTION OFFSHORE OF THE ORE/WA COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL RANGES...AS BANDS OF CONVECTION BEHIND THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN WITH ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT. ...SERN TX/WRN LA... WAA WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS REGION COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRENGTHENING RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM CRP/DRT SHOW PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 700 MB. THIS WILL ACT TO INHIBIT DEEP/MOIST CONVECTION OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD DESPITE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. SUBTLE MID LEVEL COOLING/HEIGHT FALLS ON SRN EXTENT OF CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH /PER COMPARISON OF 00Z AND 12Z TUS SOUNDINGS AND 12Z ELP AND DRT SOUNDINGS/ SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT /09-12Z/ OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF A GENERAL THUNDER AREA ATTM. ..CROSBIE/HALES.. 03/15/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 15 19:51:08 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 15 Mar 2006 14:51:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060315195423.EE958D4B0C@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151952 SWODY1 SPC AC 151950 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0150 PM CST WED MAR 15 2006 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WA/ORE COAST... LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUGGEST LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE INLAND...MAINLY ALONG THE WA COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. APPARENT WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...128W...IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY TEMPORARILY SUPPRESS TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET AND STRONGER REGION OF ASCENT APPROACHES THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. ...ARKLATEX... HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE HAS ENHANCED RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO TX THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC DEW POINTS SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST. WITH TIME...ELEVATED MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING WILL OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FARTHER INLAND AS TRAJECTORIES SHUNT THIS AIRMASS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL INITIATE OVER THIS AREA LATE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE TOWARD 12Z...HOWEVER GREATER CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY2 PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 03/15/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 16 01:37:16 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 15 Mar 2006 20:37:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060316014001.2190CD4B41@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160057 SWODY1 SPC AC 160055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST WED MAR 15 2006 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PATTERN IS EVIDENT ACROSS MOST OF CONUS. WRN STATES SYNOPTIC RIDGING INCREASES IN AMPLITUDE WITH NWD EXTENT ...THROUGH NRN ROCKIES AND INTO W-CENTRAL CANADA. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW JUST OFFSHORE WA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD...FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH NOW EVIDENT AROUND 135W-140W. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES -- WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE -- ANALYZED ATTM BETWEEN MCK-HLC -- IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS LNK AREA OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED/BRIEF THUNDER EVENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT N OF SFC LOW IN ELEVATED WAA CONVEYOR. HOWEVER...WHILE THIS WILL REMAIN A STRONG LOW-MIDLEVEL PERTURBATION...LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING WILL PRECLUDE GEN TSTM AREA. ...SRN/ERN TX TO WRN/NRN LA... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL TX IN REGIME OF ELEVATED MOISTENING AND WAA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH END OF PERIOD AS SEGMENTS OF MARGINALLY MOIST AIR IN LOW-MIDDLE LEVELS ARE LIFTED TO LFC. MUCAPES SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 500 J/KG AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES ENEWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SE TX THIS EVENING. RELATIVELY STABLE/LOW-THETAE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PRECLUDE SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR REMAINDER PERIOD. LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ABOVE THIS LAYER ARE FCST TO VEER -- SHUNTING FAVORABLE/ELEVATED RETURN FLOW MOISTURE ENEWD AND NEWD ACROSS E TX AND LA. ...COASTAL PACIFIC NW... BAND OF STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER ASCENT IS EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY ...WITH EMBEDDED TCU AND SHALLOW CB...NOW MOVING ASHORE WA AND NWRN ORE. ONCE THIS MOVE INLAND OVER COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER....DURING NEXT 3-4 HOURS...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL SET IN AND THUNDER POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH. THEN...TOWARD 16/12Z...ANOTHER AREA OF MAXIMIZED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL APCH COAST...ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH NOW AROUND 135W-140W. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSTMS. ..EDWARDS.. 03/16/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 18 05:52:36 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2006 00:52:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060318055539.391AAD4653@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180553 SWODY1 SPC AC 180551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 PM CST FRI MAR 17 2006 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN NM AND MUCH OF W TX... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES/SERN QUE REGION...RIDGE MOVING EWD FROM PLAINS STATES TOWARD MS VALLEY...AND DEEP TROUGHING OVER WRN STATES. HEIGHTS WILL FALL THROUGHOUT PERIOD ACROSS ROCKIES AND CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER BETWEEN GREAT BASIN AND NRN MEX. IN RESPONSE...VIGOROUS WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND SFC WARM FRONT NOW OVER S-CENTRAL AND FAR SW TX WILL RETREAT NWD SLOWLY. ...W TX AND SERN NM... TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE MID-LATE AFTERNOON ALONG DRYLINE FROM SW TX INTO SERN NM...MOVING NEWD OR ENEWD TOWARD WARM FRONT. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL OVER MOST OF MOIST SECTOR...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS ALSO LIKELY FROM MOST INTENSE CELLS. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED INVOF WARM FRONT...EITHER FOR 1. STORMS FORMING ALONG DRYLINE AND LATER CROSSING FRONT...OR 2. ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OF EITHER DRYLINE OR WARM FRONTAL ORIGIN THAT MOVE RIGHTWARD WITHIN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND STAY SFC-BASED. FCST SOUNDINGS ALONG WARM FRONT SUGGEST 65-75 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND HODOGRAPHS ENLARGED BY BACKED SFC WINDS...WITH 200-300 J/KG OF 0-1 KM SRH. LCL WILL LOWER WITH EWD EXTENT ALONG WARM FRONT BECAUSE OF HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT. CAPPING MAY PRECLUDE MORE THAN ONE OR TWO DOMINANT SFC-BASED STORMS...OTHERWISE SEVERE PROBABILITIES WOULD BE HIGHER. AFTER DARK...EXPECT INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW N OF WARM FRONT AND ABOVE RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. LLJ STRENGTHENING TO AS MUCH AS 50-55 KT WILL ENHANCE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW IN ELEVATED BUOYANT LAYER...RESULTING IN MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG...GENERALLY DIMINISHING WITH NWD EXTENT. EFFECTIVE SHEARS 50-60 KT INDICATE ROTATION POTENTIAL IN DISCRETE TSTMS WITH ENHANCED LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST INFLOW LAYER WILL REMAIN SFC-BASED FOR ANY TSTMS THAT CONTINUE S OF WARM FRONT...MAINTAINING SOME RISK OF ALL THREE SEVERE MODES. ...NRN NM AND S-CENTRAL CO... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND JUST E OF SANGRE DE CRISTOS...AS WELL AS WRN RATON MESA AREA...MID-LATE AFTERNOON. MRGL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL OR DAMAGING GUSTS...HOWEVER BOTH DURATION AND COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE DUE TO LACK OF MORE ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 8 DEG C/KM AND 60-70 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...BUT ALSO MLCAPES LESS THAN 300 J/KG IN MOST AREAS. ..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 03/18/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 18 06:46:59 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2006 01:46:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060318065003.B2AD0D4653@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180647 SWODY1 SPC AC 180646 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 AM CST SAT MAR 18 2006 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN NM AND MUCH OF W TX... CORRECTED CODING OF SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES/SERN QUE REGION...RIDGE MOVING EWD FROM PLAINS STATES TOWARD MS VALLEY...AND DEEP TROUGHING OVER WRN STATES. HEIGHTS WILL FALL THROUGHOUT PERIOD ACROSS ROCKIES AND CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER BETWEEN GREAT BASIN AND NRN MEX. IN RESPONSE...VIGOROUS WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND SFC WARM FRONT NOW OVER S-CENTRAL AND FAR SW TX WILL RETREAT NWD SLOWLY. ...W TX AND SERN NM... TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE MID-LATE AFTERNOON ALONG DRYLINE FROM SW TX INTO SERN NM...MOVING NEWD OR ENEWD TOWARD WARM FRONT. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL OVER MOST OF MOIST SECTOR...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS ALSO LIKELY FROM MOST INTENSE CELLS. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED INVOF WARM FRONT...EITHER FOR 1. STORMS FORMING ALONG DRYLINE AND LATER CROSSING FRONT...OR 2. ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OF EITHER DRYLINE OR WARM FRONTAL ORIGIN THAT MOVE RIGHTWARD WITHIN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND STAY SFC-BASED. FCST SOUNDINGS ALONG WARM FRONT SUGGEST 65-75 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND HODOGRAPHS ENLARGED BY BACKED SFC WINDS...WITH 200-300 J/KG OF 0-1 KM SRH. LCL WILL LOWER WITH EWD EXTENT ALONG WARM FRONT BECAUSE OF HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT. CAPPING MAY PRECLUDE MORE THAN ONE OR TWO DOMINANT SFC-BASED STORMS...OTHERWISE SEVERE PROBABILITIES WOULD BE HIGHER. AFTER DARK...EXPECT INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW N OF WARM FRONT AND ABOVE RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. LLJ STRENGTHENING TO AS MUCH AS 50-55 KT WILL ENHANCE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW IN ELEVATED BUOYANT LAYER...RESULTING IN MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG...GENERALLY DIMINISHING WITH NWD EXTENT. EFFECTIVE SHEARS 50-60 KT INDICATE ROTATION POTENTIAL IN DISCRETE TSTMS WITH ENHANCED LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST INFLOW LAYER WILL REMAIN SFC-BASED FOR ANY TSTMS THAT CONTINUE S OF WARM FRONT...MAINTAINING SOME RISK OF ALL THREE SEVERE MODES. ...NRN NM AND S-CENTRAL CO... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND JUST E OF SANGRE DE CRISTOS...AS WELL AS WRN RATON MESA AREA...MID-LATE AFTERNOON. MRGL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL OR DAMAGING GUSTS...HOWEVER BOTH DURATION AND COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE DUE TO LACK OF MORE ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 8 DEG C/KM AND 60-70 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...BUT ALSO MLCAPES LESS THAN 300 J/KG IN MOST AREAS. ..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 03/18/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 18 12:51:54 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2006 07:51:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060318125454.921BFD4702@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181252 SWODY1 SPC AC 181251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 AM CST SAT MAR 18 2006 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF W TX AND ERN NM... ...SYNOPSIS... MINIMAL LARGE SCALE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD AS DEEP VORTEX LINGERS OVER THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND WRN STATES TROUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY E INTO THE GRT BASIN. VORT MAX IN BASE OF WRN TROUGH...NOW OVER SRN CA...SHOULD LIFT NE INTO WRN CO BY EARLY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SPEED MAXIMA DROP S FROM NV/CA INTO NRN BAJA. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SRN PLNS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL FROM W TO E LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WRN TROUGH EDGES EWD. AT THE SURFACE...SHALLOW FRONT NOW EXTENDING ESE FROM N OF THE BIG BEND REGION SHOULD DRIFT SLOWLY NE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPR FLOW SLIGHTLY BACKS AND STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING TROUGH. ...W TX/SE NM... SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY IN ZONE OF LOW LVL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS W TX. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO SPREAD N/NE WITH TIME ALONG 30-40 KT SLY LLJ. THE STORMS MAY POSE AN OCCASIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL GIVEN QUALITY OF ELEVATED MOISTURE INFLOW /MIXING RATIOS AOA 13 G PER KG IN UPSTREAM LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT NEAR KDRT/. GIVEN AT LEAST MODEST SURFACE HEATING...SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE THAT SHOULD FORM OVER SW TX INTO SERN NM. A FEW SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER E/SE ALONG WARM FRONT. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH ALL OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AS DEEP SWLY SHEAR AOA 50 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...SEASONABLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW AND LARGE DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL SHEAR /ESE SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO SLY AT 850 MB/ SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ALONG WARM FRONT. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT REMAIN SURFACE-BASED AND/OR MOVE ESELY ALONG THE FRONT. CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS. CONTINUED EWD ADVANCE OF WRN U.S. TROUGH SHOULD STRENGTHEN LLJ AND ASSOCIATED ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND LOWER HEIGHTS... ACROSS TX AND OK TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD CREATE AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ELEVATED TSTMS AS MUCAPE RISES TO AOA 1500 J/KG NWD INTO OK. WITH CLOUD LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 50-60 KT...ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL APPEAR LIKELY. FARTHER S...POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR POSSIBLE SURFACE-BASED STORMS INVOF WARM FRONT ACROSS CNTRL TEXAS. ...NRN NM AND S CNTRL CO... SURFACE HEATING MAY INITIATE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND JUST E OF SANGRE DE CRISTOS MTNS...AS WELL AS OVER WRN RATON MESA AREA OF NE NM. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL OR DAMAGING GUSTS...ALTHOUGH BOTH STORM DURATION AND COVERAGE ARE QUESTIONABLE GIVEN LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FOSTERED BY STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 8 DEG C PER KM/ AND 60-70 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. ..CORFIDI.. 03/18/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 18 16:22:37 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2006 11:22:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060318162538.BCEEAD4A71@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181623 SWODY1 SPC AC 181621 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1021 AM CST SAT MAR 18 2006 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WRN INTO CENTRAL TX... ...SRN PLAINS... STRONG UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE PERIOD...MAINTAINING BROAD ZONE OF MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS REMAINS WITHIN COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER TX COAST INTO THE BIG BEND REGION/FAR SWRN TX. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON MAINTAINING A SIMILAR FRONTAL POSITION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LIMIT SURFACE MOISTURE RETURN TO THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION TODAY...WHERE LOWER TO MID 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG SLOPED/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WITH A LARGE MCS IN NCNTRL TX. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED BY MORE FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING THAN YESTERDAY. LATEST ENSEMBLE MEAN FCST INDICATES THAT MASS INFLOW ON MODEST LLJ WILL PERSIST FROM NWRN TX TO THE RED RIVER THROUGH THE DAY AS MID LEVEL FLOW AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM AMA AND MAF DISPLAYED STEEP 3-6KM LAPSE RATES OF 7.6C/KM IN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60KT. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING CONVECTION WITHIN STRENGTHENING WARM CONVEYOR...COUPLED WITH UPSTREAM LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR...THE CHANCE FOR ELEVATED AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. IN THE WAKE OF ONGOING STORMS...CLOUDS WILL HINDER SURFACE HEATING MUCH MORE THAN YESTERDAY NEAR THE NWRN EDGE OF SURFACE DEW POINT AXIS. THIS SUGGESTS AFTERNOON/EVENING DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LESS DRIVEN BY HEATING...AND MORE SUPPORTED BY WEAK DISTURBANCES EJECTING AWAY FROM BROAD WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. NOTHING IS EVIDENT IN MORNING SAT IMAGERY. HOWEVER...MORNING GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE MCSS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK IMPULSE LIFTS ENEWD INTO WRN AND CENTRAL TX. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT RENEWED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT WITH NEXT ROUND OF STORMS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. SHOULD BREAKS IN OVERCAST ALLOW AMPLE HEATING INTO FAR SWRN TX...A SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS THIS EVENING. ..EVANS/TAYLOR/CARBIN.. 03/18/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 18 19:42:32 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2006 14:42:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060318194531.35667D4AA1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181943 SWODY1 SPC AC 181942 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2006 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS... ...SRN PLAINS... LOW-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM BUBBLE HIGH OVER NWRN TX HAS MAINTAINED A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL SW INTO SWRN TX THIS AFTN. THE CAPPED WARM SECTOR HAS BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS S AND W OF KVCT-KSAT-KFST LINE. ADDITIONALLY...UNLIKE FRI...WARM CONVEYOR AND MOUNTAIN WAVE HIGH CLOUDS ARE THICKER AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAT THOSE OBSERVED FRI AFTN. AS A RESULT...SURFACE-BASED TSTM INITIATION IS IN QUESTION TODAY ACROSS SWRN TX...WITH MUCH HIGHER PROBABILITIES W/S OF THE RIO GRANDE VLY IN MEXICO. WATER VAPOR SUGGESTS THAT A JETLET WAS NOSING NEWD INTO NRN MEXICO THAT WILL TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM INTO TX THIS EVENING. AS LARGE SCALE LIFT APPROACHES THE REGION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/EXPAND FROM SWRN TX AND SERN NM NEWD INTO NCNTRL TX AND OK OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL LARGELY BE ELEVATED AND POSE MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WCNTRL-NCNTRL TX WHERE STEEPEST MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST /MIDLAND 18Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED 1017 J PER KG MUCAPE AND 66 KTS OF EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR/. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY OF A NEAR-SFC BASED STORM /DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/ ALONG THE NW-SE ORIENTED FRONT ACROSS SERN NM SEWD INTO SWRN-CNTRL TX. ..RACY.. 03/18/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 00:32:30 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2006 19:32:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060319003528.C2733D4702@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190033 SWODY1 SPC AC 190031 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0631 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2006 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX... ...TX/ERN NM/SRN OK... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. WITH A SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW OVER FAR WEST TX. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS THE MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWWD ACROSS THE SWRN TX HILL COUNTRY INTO FAR WEST TX WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F EXISTING NORTH AND EAST OF DEL RIO. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE AIRMASS MANAGED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE TODAY AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 10 IN WCNTRL TX. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE REGION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE ALONG A DIFFUSE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED NORTHEAST OF THE BIG BEND AREA. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE STORMS DRIFTING EWD INTO THE GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS WCNTRL TX. WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION SHOW VERY STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE SUGGESTING SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN SOME OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS NEWD. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SHEAR WILL MAKE LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS AND THE STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE SFC-BASED. ALTHOUGH SUPERCELLS WILL BE LESS LIKELY ACROSS NCNTRL TX...THE STRONG SHEAR AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL MAKE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER ELEVATED STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST IN THE 04Z TO 08Z TIMEFRAME EARLY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS FORECAST TO TRACK EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN TX. THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THE MCS SHOULD BECOME MARGINAL LATE TONIGHT AS THE MCS MOVES EWD AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS. ..BROYLES.. 03/19/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 06:00:00 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 01:00:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060319060257.61095D4703@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190600 SWODY1 SPC AC 190558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2006 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX AND SRN OK... ...SRN PLAINS... A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN US WILL CLOSE-OFF AND SLIDE EWD TODAY INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. A 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUNCH NEWD INTO WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NWD ACROSS WEST TX. IN SPITE OF ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SFC HEATING AND DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S F IN WEST TX SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR STORM INITIATION SHOULD BE ON THE CAPROCK WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED DUE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE IN THE EVENING WITH TWO OR THREE MCS CLUSTERS ORGANIZING AND DRIFTING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND NORTH TX DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IN WCNTRL AND SW TX WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1000 TO 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SUPERCELLS DRIFT EWD INTO THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE EVENING HOURS. STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WHERE THE STORMS HAVE ACCESS TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ALTHOUGH STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED ACROSS NORTH TX AND NEAR THE RED RIVER...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THEAT SHOULD GRADUALLY LESSEN AS THE STORMS DRIFT EWD INTO WEAKENING INSTABILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ..BROYLES/GUYER.. 03/19/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 06:11:05 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 01:11:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060319061402.C97ACD4703@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190610 SWODY1 SPC AC 190608 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX AND SRN OK... CORRECTED TO ADD THUNDER LINE ...SRN PLAINS... A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN US WILL CLOSE-OFF AND SLIDE EWD TODAY INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. A 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUNCH NEWD INTO WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NWD ACROSS WEST TX. IN SPITE OF ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SFC HEATING AND DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S F IN WEST TX SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR STORM INITIATION SHOULD BE ON THE CAPROCK WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED DUE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE IN THE EVENING WITH TWO OR THREE MCS CLUSTERS ORGANIZING AND DRIFTING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND NORTH TX DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IN WCNTRL AND SW TX WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1000 TO 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SUPERCELLS DRIFT EWD INTO THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE EVENING HOURS. STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WHERE THE STORMS HAVE ACCESS TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ALTHOUGH STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED ACROSS NORTH TX AND NEAR THE RED RIVER...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THEAT SHOULD GRADUALLY LESSEN AS THE STORMS DRIFT EWD INTO WEAKENING INSTABILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ..BROYLES.. 03/19/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 13:00:18 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 08:00:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060319130314.B6B41D4700@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191300 SWODY1 SPC AC 191259 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPR TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN GRT BASIN SHOULD EJECT E/NE TO THE CNTRL/SRN RCKYS LATER THIS PERIOD AS UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE OVER THE GULF OF AK MOVES SE TO OFF THE ORE/NRN CA COAST. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW SPEED MAXIMA CONTINUING TO DROP S ON WRN SIDE OF GRT BASIN SYSTEM. THUS...EXPECT THAT LARGE SCALE TROUGH LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLOW-MOVER UNTIL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER NRN BAJA ASSUMES A NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT UPON REACHING NM/W TX TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT SHALLOW WARM FRONT THAT NOW EXTENDS FROM N OF KDRT TO NEAR KSAT TO NEAR KHOU WILL DRIFT/REDEVELOP SLOWLY N WITH TIME. ITS MOVEMENT WILL...HOWEVER...LIKELY BE RETARDED BY CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION N OF FRONT. FARTHER N... SECONDARY BAROCLINIC ZONE/INVERTED TROUGH MAY ALSO REMAIN DISTINCT ...EXTENDING FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY ENE INTO E CNTRL/NE TX. ELONGATED LEE LOW INITIALLY OVER ERN NM SHOULD CONSOLIDATE NE INTO THE TX PANHANDLE LATER TODAY/ TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL REMOVED FROM TRUE WARM SECTOR AIR OVER S CNTRL/SE TX. ...SRN PLNS... OVERNIGHT PERSISTENCE OF TSTMS ALONG INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY ENE INTO E CNTRL/NE TX SUGGESTS THAT THIS CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH THE DAY AS DEEP/MOIST SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO IMPINGE ON BOUNDARY BENEATH WEAKLY DIFFLUENT UPR JET. THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ON N SIDE OF TROUGH. WITH TIME...HOWEVER... MODEST SURFACE HEATING MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE-BASED ACTIVITY FROM NE OF KDRT TO NEAR KCLL...WHERE SBCAPE COULD EXCEED 1000 J/KG. COUPLED WITH LOW LCLS AND 40-50 KT CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE TROUGH...SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW HP SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS ONE OR TWO TORNADOES. FARTHER W...EXPECT THAT A SECOND CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE AXIS WILL EVOLVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NE NM AND THE WRN TX PANHANDLE S/SE INTO THE TX S PLAINS/PERMIAN BASIN AS SURFACE HEATING DESTABILIZES REGION ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE. BY EVENING THIS REGION WILL ALSO COME UNDER INFLUENCE OF RAPIDLY INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL...MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH 500 MB SSWLY FLOW INCREASING TO AOA 70 KTS... EXPECT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND. WHILE STORM MODE MAY FAIRLY RAPIDLY TREND TOWARD BANDS/CLUSTERS...BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW INVOF WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SEGMENTS AND SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. THE TX STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP PRIMARILY NEWD ...POSSIBLY AFFECTING PARTS OF OK...SW AR AND LA WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND POSSIBLY HIGH WIND EARLY MONDAY. ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 03/19/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 16:20:51 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 11:20:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060319162346.32C52D45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191622 SWODY1 SPC AC 191620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF TX... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S...WITH MOIST PLUME OF SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS TX. SEVERAL EMBEDDED FEATURES IN THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY1 PERIOD. SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS MAIN SYSTEM BEGINS TO EJECT INTO REGION. ...TX... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS PRIMARY SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF DRT TO NEAR AUS. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF THIS FRONT ARE TRANSPORTING RICH GULF MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL TX /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY...BEFORE ACCELERATING NORTHWARD TONIGHT AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THIS REGION. SCATTERED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT...CONTRIBUTING TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. NORTH OF BOUNDARY...DEEP CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIP SHOULD LIMIT HEATING AND PRECLUDE SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MORNING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TX...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHEAST OF MAF INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SURFACE-BASED AND SUPERCELLULAR. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT WHERE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND DEVELOP NORTHWARD AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TX AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS TO THE WEST. ...SERN CO/ERN NM/TX PNHDL... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BACK EDGE OF CLOUD COVER EXTENDS FROM NEAR ROW TO EAST OF RTN. CLEARING SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR STRONG HEATING/DESTABILIZATION FROM SOUTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHEAST NM. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO HIGHER TERRAIN MAY HELP INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA. DESPITE WEAK CAPE...HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS. ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE BEFORE WEAKENING. ..HART/TAYLOR.. 03/19/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 19:55:12 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 14:55:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060319195807.2801DD4A94@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191955 SWODY1 SPC AC 191954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/NRN TX... ...TX... H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA APPEARS TO ALREADY BE AIDING IN LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTN. ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE BEEN INTENSIFYING FROM THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF SW TX NEWD INTO NRN TX. THIS MAY BE THE START OF A PROLONGED SEVERE EVENT ACROSS MAINLY CNTRL/NRN TX THAT WILL LAST THROUGH TONIGHT. 19Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES THE WMFNT FROM JUST S OF KFST TO KAUS-KHOU- KMSY. BINOVC OCCURRING N OF THE FRONT ACROSS CNTRL TX MAY ALLOW THE FRONT TO JUMP NWD BY THIS EVE...PARTICULARLY EAST OF KJCT. S OF THE FRONT...AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...BUT SFC BASED PARCELS WERE CAPPED. SUBSTANTIAL LARGE SCALE ASCENT/COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH DOES NOT SPREAD EWD UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. BUT...WEAK ASCENT TIED TO JETLETS EJECTING NEWD FROM MEXICO...HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT/HIGHER SW TX TERRAIN WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE SFC-BASED TSTMS MID-LATE AFTN FROM THE SRN TRANSPECOS NEWD TOWARD CNTRL TX. OTHERWISE...ELEVATED STORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NRN TX INTO OK THROUGH THE EVE. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. INITIAL SFC-BASED STORMS ACROSS SWRN TX MAY PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO. OTHERWISE...MOST STORMS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS N TX WITH A LARGE HAIL THREAT. OVERNIGHT...ALL SHORT TERM MODELS HINT THAT A SECONDARY JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP FROM CNTRL MEXICO NEWD INTO SCNTRL TX. THIS MAY AUGMENT SRN EDGE OF TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL TX AND A SEVERE MCS MAY EVOLVE ALONG/S OF THE WMFNT INTO ECNTRL TX N OF THE HOUSTON AREA BY 12Z MON. IF THIS INDEED OCCURS...INCREASING RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT AS STORM MODES TRANSITION INTO LINEAR MIXED WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ...SRN HI PLAINS... H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SW BEGINS TO BODILY EJECT ENEWD INTO THE SRN HI PLAINS THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT WITH STRONGEST LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS NRN NM...SRN CO AND THE TX/OK PNHDLS. SELY FLOW EAST OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT HAS ADVECTED MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MSTR NEWD INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND GIVEN COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AIR MASS HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY PRODUCE ISOLD LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTN/EVE GIVEN THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS LATER TONIGHT AS STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES. THESE LINE SEGMENTS WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AND MOVE EWD INTO THE OK/TX PNHDLS BY 12Z WITH PERHAPS HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ..RACY.. 03/19/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 05:55:24 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 00:55:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060320055820.EA5B8D48EB@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200556 SWODY1 SPC AC 200554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS AND AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS... ...LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY... A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ORGANIZE AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SPREAD STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS. INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT COMBINED WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THIS REGION. AN MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD NEAR THE TX-LA STATE-LINE. THIS STORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS LA AND NRN MS TODAY HELPING TO SHARPEN A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS MS...AL AND GA. THE FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM CNTRL MS EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AL BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM SHOULD BRING SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S F ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF MS AND AL. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE INITIAL MORNING MCS WILL TRACK ENEWD ALONG THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ALLOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS SCNTRL MS AND CNTRL AL BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES AND AN ASSOCIATED 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET PUNCHES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...STORM INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS SERN LA OR SWRN MS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A SEVERE MCS DEVELOPING AND MOVING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL MS AND NCNTRL AL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA TODAY WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 60-70 KT SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH STORMS THAT REMAIN DISCREET. LARGE LOOPED HODOGRAPHS DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CREATE 0-1 KM SRH VALUES AROUND 300 M2/S2 SUGGESTING SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAX FROM SCNTRL MS EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS MOST OF ERN MS INTO WRN AND NRN AL. IF MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS FORECAST...A FEW LONG TRACK STRONG TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT PARALLEL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOW ECHOES. IF CELLS GRADUALLY MERGE AND A LINEAR MCS DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD ALSO BE ENHANCED ACROSS THE REGION. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS A DRY SLOT PUNCHES EWD ACROSS THE REGION AND THE MCS MOVES AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS. ...SRN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU... A POTENT UPPER-LOW WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS TODAY. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS AR AND OK THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND WARMING SFC TEMPS WILL CREATE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD EXIST FROM FAR ERN OK ACROSS THE AR RIVER VALLEY. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 03/20/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 12:58:03 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 07:58:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060320130056.73612D4AB1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201258 SWODY1 SPC AC 201256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL MS AND EXTREME W CENTRAL AL.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM OK ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO WRN GA.... ...SYNOPSIS... COMPLEX SITUATION TODAY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY WITH MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF ONGOING CONVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS BEGINNING TO EJECT ENEWD OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. AN INITIAL BAND OF CONVECTION FROM SE AR INTO SE TX HAS PRODUCED A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL THAT HAS REINFORCED THE COOL/STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS E TX AND NW LA. SHORT TERM MODEL FORECASTS /ESPECIALLY THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM/ DO NOT REFLECT THE IMPACTS OF THIS CONVECTION PARTICULARLY WELL...WHICH AFFECTS THE TRACK OF THE INITIAL SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY LATER TODAY ACROSS NRN LA/NE TX/AR. ...CENTRAL LA/MS AREA TODAY... WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAX OVER SE TX WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL LA THIS MORNING...AND CENTRAL MS THIS AFTERNOON IF IT SURVIVES. OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE NWD RETURN OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS LA/MS THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN ESTABLISHING THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR NEAR AND S OF I-20 BY AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR /MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG/. ADDITIONALLY...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS INVOF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...WHERE RICH L0W-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THE TORNADO THREAT TODAY. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PEAK THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS AL BY EARLY TONIGHT. ...OK AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING... THE MID LEVEL COLD CORE LOW OVER ERN NM WILL ROTATE EWD TO WRN OK BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. STEEP L0W-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -25 C WILL SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DESPITE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S. GIVEN THE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE MID-UPPER JET...LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TRACK OF THE OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW. ...ARKLATEX REGION TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT... SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT AND MORNING CONVECTION. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WHAT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE THE SURFACE...ORIGINATING FROM THE STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME OVER S TX. THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AREA COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH SEVERE STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 03/20/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 16:34:12 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 11:34:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060320163702.E08F5D4700@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201632 SWODY1 SPC AC 201630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK... LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. MID LEVEL JET MAX OF 100+ KNOTS IS FORECAST TO NOSE INTO PARTS OF AR/LA THIS EVENING...PROVIDING STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM EAST TX INTO PARTS OF AL TODAY...AS WELL AS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK BENEATH COLD UPPER LOW. ...LOWER MS VALLEY... MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS PRIMARY WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF LCH INTO SOUTHERN MS. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. CURRENT VAD/PROFILER DATA ALREADY SHOW VERY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SOUTH OF FRONT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND THE THREAT OF TORNADOES. THREAT SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS SMALL POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING OCCUR AND WARM FRONT LIFTS TO NEAR I-20. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN LA AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MS. IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES. SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE AFTER DARK INTO PARTS OF AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. ...SOUTHERN OK INTO WESTERN AR... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LINE OF CLEARING SKIES DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH TX INTO SOUTHERN OK. VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHERE STRONG HEATING OCCURS...RESULTING IN MARGINAL/MODERATE INSTABILITY. ALL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST A RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. ..HART/TAYLOR.. 03/20/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 19:29:42 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 14:29:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060320193233.E0F5CD498D@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201930 SWODY1 SPC AC 201929 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARS OF S CNTRL MS INTO W CNTRL AL.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREAS ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS RED RIVER VALLEY.... CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW PATTERN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PERSISTS...PROVIDING CONTINUING LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THUS...WHILE DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE LIFTING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...THIS FEATURE SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MIGRATES ALONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 12Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAK SECONDARY SURFACE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY...AS UPPER IMPULSE IS SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...MODELS MAY BE A BIT TO FAR TO THE NORTH/WEST WITH THIS FEATURE...AS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PRECLUDING NORTHWARD RETURN OF MOIST UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NORTHWARD RETURN OF THIS AIR MASS HAS STALLED SOUTH OF JACKSON MS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND THIS FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO FORCING BENEATH DIFLUENT UPPER REGIME BETWEEN SOUTHERN POLAR JET STREAK AND ACCOMPANYING SUBTROPICAL JET. ...CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF STATES**... ALONG/SOUTH OF AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT...SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA/ MISSISSIPPI. SIMILAR MOISTENING IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS INTO THE VICINITY OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...DESPITE LACK OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHILE COLD CORE OF UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT WELL TO THE NORTH/WEST OF REGION...STRENGTHENING FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES ON ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING RISK FOR SUPERCELLS IN WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK SEEMS LOW... FORCING MAY STILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL OR TWO. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY SOUTH/EAST OF THE JACKSON MS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS INTO AREAS NORTH/WEST OF SELMA/MONTGOMERY AL THIS EVENING...WHERE LARGE CLOCKWISE TURNING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TORNADOES. ...RED RIVER VALLEY**... FRONTAL ZONE EAST OF WEAKENING SURFACE CYCLONE...FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...SEEMS LIKELY TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AIDED BY FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF 100+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK...DESTABILIZATION PROBABLY WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME HAIL BRIEFLY APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS...BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AFTER DARK. **PLEASE MONITOR FOR THE LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS...FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS. ..KERR.. 03/20/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 19:38:29 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 14:38:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060320194123.9D479D4982@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201939 SWODY1 SPC AC 201938 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0138 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARS OF S CNTRL MS INTO W CNTRL AL.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREAS ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS RED RIVER VALLEY.... CORRECTED TO CLARIFY 5% AND 2% LINES ON TORNADO PROBABILITY GRAPHIC CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW PATTERN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PERSISTS...PROVIDING CONTINUING LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THUS...WHILE DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE LIFTING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...THIS FEATURE SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MIGRATES ALONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 12Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAK SECONDARY SURFACE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY...AS UPPER IMPULSE IS SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...MODELS MAY BE A BIT TO FAR TO THE NORTH/WEST WITH THIS FEATURE...AS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PRECLUDING NORTHWARD RETURN OF MOIST UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NORTHWARD RETURN OF THIS AIR MASS HAS STALLED SOUTH OF JACKSON MS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND THIS FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO FORCING BENEATH DIFLUENT UPPER REGIME BETWEEN SOUTHERN POLAR JET STREAK AND ACCOMPANYING SUBTROPICAL JET. ...CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF STATES**... ALONG/SOUTH OF AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT...SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA/ MISSISSIPPI. SIMILAR MOISTENING IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS INTO THE VICINITY OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...DESPITE LACK OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHILE COLD CORE OF UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT WELL TO THE NORTH/WEST OF REGION...STRENGTHENING FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES ON ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING RISK FOR SUPERCELLS IN WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK SEEMS LOW... FORCING MAY STILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL OR TWO. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY SOUTH/EAST OF THE JACKSON MS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS INTO AREAS NORTH/WEST OF SELMA/MONTGOMERY AL THIS EVENING...WHERE LARGE CLOCKWISE TURNING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TORNADOES. ...RED RIVER VALLEY**... FRONTAL ZONE EAST OF WEAKENING SURFACE CYCLONE...FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...SEEMS LIKELY TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AIDED BY FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF 100+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK...DESTABILIZATION PROBABLY WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME HAIL BRIEFLY APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS...BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AFTER DARK. **PLEASE MONITOR FOR THE LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS...FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS. ..KERR.. 03/20/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 21 00:53:19 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 19:53:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060321005610.67FFCD4700@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210054 SWODY1 SPC AC 210052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AL...SRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN KS...NE OK AND FAR WRN AR... ...SRN AL/SRN GA AND FL PANHANDLE... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WHICH IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE TN VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO HELP SUPPORT A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS AL...GA AND FL PANHANDLE. LOCAL WSR-88D VWPS CURRENTLY SHOW VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 75 TO 85 KT. IN ADDITION...SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE LINE OF 60-65 F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS AS THE LINE MOVES EWD INTO SW GA AND ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE. WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NEWD INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY TONIGHT...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAKENING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO BECOME MARGINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ...SE OK/FAR WRN AR... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH A DRY SLOT PUNCHING NEWD INTO SE OK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NRN AND ERN OK DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER-LOW AND MAY AFFECT SRN KS AND NW AR THIS EVENING. THE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. DECREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID DECREASE OF THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE 03Z TO 05Z TIMEFRAME. ..BROYLES.. 03/21/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 21 12:55:22 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 21 Mar 2006 07:55:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060321125809.B0587D497E@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211256 SWODY1 SPC AC 211254 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 AM CST TUE MAR 21 2006 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS N FL AND S GA.... ...N FL/S GA AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON... A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID MS/LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS WILL MOVE EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS BY THIS EVENING AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ALONG A COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF OF SC/NC. THE OCCLUDED LOW IN NE AR WILL GRADUALLY FILL TODAY WHILE MOVING EWD...AS WILL A WEAK SECONDARY LOW ALONG AN E-W FRONT ACROSS S GA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NEWD ACROSS S GA AND SC. THE 12Z TLH SOUNDING REVEALS A MOIST WARM SECTOR ACROSS N FL WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG/ AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...AND AT LEAST ONE STORM HAS DISPLAYED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS THIS MORNING W OF TLH. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO ACROSS N FL/S GA THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THEREAFTER...LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN AND THE SEVERE STORM THREAT SHOULD DECREASE. ..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 03/21/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 21 16:23:50 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 21 Mar 2006 11:23:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060321162635.E3561D4307@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211622 SWODY1 SPC AC 211619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1019 AM CST TUE MAR 21 2006 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF GA/FL... ...GA/FL... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...WHILE MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS SLOWLY WEAKENING ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF GA/FL... MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL SLOWLY VEER LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WEAKEN CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO LESSEN THE RISK OF STRONG CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE...ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY. ..HART/GRAMS.. 03/21/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 21 19:35:26 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 21 Mar 2006 14:35:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060321193811.4040DD4307@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211936 SWODY1 SPC AC 211933 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0133 PM CST TUE MAR 21 2006 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... TO THE SOUTH OF HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN...A SIGNIFICANT BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES PERSISTS ACROSS THE U.S...FROM THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES. MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASING SHEARED IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THIS STREAM...WITHIN BROADER SCALE CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW...WILL RAPIDLY ACCELERATE EAST OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ACROSS MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSES IS STILL WELL UPSTREAM...ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY...BUT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS NOW ONGOING OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST IN RESPONSE TO FORCING AHEAD OF LEAD IMPULSE. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...AS REINFORCING COLD INTRUSION OVERSPREADS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS DIMINISHING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS. TRAILING COLD FRONT HAS YET TO ADVANCE THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA...BUT WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL INHIBITION SEEM LIKELY TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO COULD STILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OFF THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO INTO AREAS NORTH OF TAMPA...WHERE MODERATELY STRONG AND SHEARED FLOW REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION AND AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... AN ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN/ CENTRAL ROCKIES. HOWEVER...MAIN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY COLD CORE OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW BEGINNING TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING EAST OF THE RIVER...AND PERHAPS NEAR CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA...AND STRONGER FORCING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. ..KERR.. 03/21/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 22 00:29:55 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 21 Mar 2006 19:29:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060322003240.8FB53D497E@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220030 SWODY1 SPC AC 220029 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0629 PM CST TUE MAR 21 2006 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LOW OVER NRN AZ WHICH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 03/22/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 22 05:53:01 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 22 Mar 2006 00:53:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060322055544.535B6D4307@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220553 SWODY1 SPC AC 220551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 PM CST TUE MAR 21 2006 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MAKE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ESEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY...ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COASTS OF TX...LA AND MS. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND LIMITED MOISTURE. ..BROYLES.. 03/22/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 22 12:43:47 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 22 Mar 2006 07:43:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060322124628.E7ACED46C1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221244 SWODY1 SPC AC 221242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 AM CST WED MAR 22 2006 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS WILL BE DRY/STABLE TODAY AS A RESULT OF OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS...AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. OTHERWISE...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY S OF E FROM WRN NM THIS MORNING TO N TX AND OK OVERNIGHT. A CORE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ACCOMPANY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NM TODAY...WHERE SURFACE HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT. FARTHER SE...WAA AND WEAK INSTABILITY BASED NEAR 700 MB COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NW GULF COAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER SPARSE IN BOTH OUTLOOK AREAS. ..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 03/22/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 22 16:27:33 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 22 Mar 2006 11:27:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060322163018.8FC46D4982@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221628 SWODY1 SPC AC 221626 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1026 AM CST WED MAR 22 2006 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE E FROM WRN NM THIS MORNING TO N TX/SRN OK OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES FROM 7 TO 8 C/KM TO THE S OF THIS WAVE...MAY PRODUCE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG THE NW GULF COAST...A BROAD ZONE OF WARM THETA-E ADVECTION AROUND 700-600 MB WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MUCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AROUND THE COASTAL BEND OF TEXAS. ELSEWHERE...STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE A THUNDERSTORM THREAT. ..GRAMS/HART.. 03/22/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 22 19:27:48 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 22 Mar 2006 14:27:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060322193029.265BBD4307@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221928 SWODY1 SPC AC 221926 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0126 PM CST WED MAR 22 2006 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... THE LAST IN A SERIES OF SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES...ASSOCIATED WITH A POLAR JET STREAK TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES...APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS TREND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE AS SYSTEM PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. BUT...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHEARING/EASTWARD ACCELERATION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ...SOUTHERN ROCKIES... OROGRAPHY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BENEATH COLD CORE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE...BUT THREAT SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH AS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHIFTS EAST OF THE HEATED HIGHER TERRAIN. ...WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST... LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM...DOWNSTREAM OF POLAR STREAM IMPULSE...IS SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS. CAPE BASED IN MOIST LAYER AROUND 700 MB...THROUGH FAVORABLE MIXED PHASE LAYER...HAS SUPPORTED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY DEVELOP WITH FORCING EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREAFTER...AS EASTWARD PROGRESSION CONTINUES INTO EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAYER WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED...WELL ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. THUS...WHILE LIGHT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION MAY PERSIST...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH. OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM LATER TODAY/TONIGHT IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME NEAR/EAST OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...WELL ABOVE LEADING EDGE OF LOW-LEVEL COLD INTRUSION NOSING THROUGH WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS. ...SOUTH FLORIDA... WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING AND MOISTENING IS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA...IN THE WAKE OF A SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE. THIS MAY WEAKEN INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THIS REGION REMAINS MOIST NEAR FRONTAL ZONE...AND STRONG HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO DESTABILIZATION. ACTIVITY APPEARS MOST LIKELY NEAR SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS...WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ..KERR.. 03/22/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 23 00:36:56 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 22 Mar 2006 19:36:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060323003937.D2E28D473F@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230037 SWODY1 SPC AC 230035 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 PM CST WED MAR 22 2006 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GULF COAST... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT FROM THE UPPER TX COAST ACROSS SRN LA/MS WHERE MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE. LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THIS ZONE...AND ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE...SHOULD INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SRN PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST. LATEST SOUNDING INFORMATION INDICATES CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ROOTED WELL ABOVE COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK CAPE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..CARBIN.. 03/23/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 23 05:35:45 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 23 Mar 2006 00:35:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060323053925.9E910D48EB@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230536 SWODY1 SPC AC 230534 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CST WED MAR 22 2006 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE SCNTRL U.S. ON THURSDAY AS A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW CROSSING THE SRN PLAINS...MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TOWARD THE SERN STATES. UPPER RIDGE SPREADING FROM THE INTERIOR WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL MAINTAIN SUBSIDENCE OVER THESE AREAS WHILE A COMPLEX ERN PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPS SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE WEST COAST THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD. IN THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES...A COMPONENT OF THE LARGE POLAR VORTEX THAT HAS DOMINATED ERN CANADA FOR THE PAST WEEK WILL ROTATE SWD AND SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AREA THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. ...SRN FL... LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING LOWER MS VALLEY UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WEAK FRONTAL WAVE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ALONG RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC FRONT RETURNING NWD OVER SRN FL. DESPITE RECENT CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS INTRUSION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MUCH OF NRN AND CNTRL FL...65-70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE TRANSPORTED NWD/EWD WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN INCREASINGLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL FL...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER SRN FL WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AS WEAK TO MODEST WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION LEADS TO SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. A SAMPLE OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/ETA INDICATED A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY EXIST ABOVE 700MB WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT STORM UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...MESOSCALE FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR RELATIVELY STRONG SHEAR AND STORM INFLOW COULD EVOLVE NEAR THE FRONT OR LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS. THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS BRIEF LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION WITH ONE OR TWO CELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TORNADO/WATERSPOUT PROBABILITIES CURRENTLY APPEAR QUITE LOW BUT POTENTIAL WILL BE NEED TO BE MONITORED LATER TODAY AS ADDITIONAL SOUNDINGS AND ANALYSES BECOME AVAILABLE. ..CARBIN.. 03/23/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 23 12:57:08 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 23 Mar 2006 07:57:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060323125955.3953CD46C1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231257 SWODY1 SPC AC 231256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 AM CST THU MAR 23 2006 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE ARKLATEX REGION THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE EWD OVER THE GULF STATES TODAY...REACHING THE SE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY FRIDAY. CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE W. ...S FL TODAY... A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE WAKE OF A PREVIOUS SYSTEM HAS STALLED INVOF THE FL STRAITS...WITH ELY FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE KEYS AND S FL. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE NW GULF AND ABOUT 100 MI WNW OF EYW NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY REACH THE W COAST OF FL LATER TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH THE STORMS SHOULD BE MUCH WEAKER AFTER MOVING E OF THE LOOP CURRENT IN THE ERN GULF. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM KEY WEST AND MIAMI BOTH SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 F...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR /AROUND 6 C/KM/...AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK ACROSS S FL. WHILE A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY SOME MARGINAL SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS THIS AFTERNOON /NAMELY INVOF WEAK SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY ALONG SE FL COAST/...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LOW. ..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 03/23/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 23 16:21:04 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 23 Mar 2006 11:21:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060323162344.E12AED46FF@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231619 SWODY1 SPC AC 231618 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 AM CST THU MAR 23 2006 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH STRONG VORT MAX MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS AR. LARGE/DRY SURFACE RIDGE AND NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL SUPPRESS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST REGIONS. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. ...SOUTH FL... WEAK SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS ACROSS THE FL STRAITS...AND WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FL TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND POTENTIALLY AFFECT SOUTH FL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FL COAST NEAR MIA BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW THAT THE MID LEVEL INVERSION INDICATED ON 12Z RAOBS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS DAYTIME HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT OCCUR. THUS...AMPLE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR MAY DEVELOP...ENHANCING THE RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. ..HART/GRAMS.. 03/23/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 23 18:57:51 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 23 Mar 2006 13:57:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060323190026.F0BE4D4478@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231858 SWODY1 SPC AC 231856 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 PM CST THU MAR 23 2006 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA.... ...FLORIDA... SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN STRONGER POLAR STREAM IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHEARED IN CONFLUENT REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...BUT STRONGER FORCING APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER... IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM...WHICH CONTRIBUTED TO LARGE OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...NOW APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG QUASI STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WHICH EXTENDS EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA...WHERE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND BOUNDARY LAYER BASED MOISTURE RETURN IS ONGOING. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE RISING THROUGH THE LOWER/MID 60S...AND MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED 1000 J/KG WITH FURTHER HEATING. BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW...WEAK BUT VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL APPEARS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS NEXT FEW HOURS...AND HODOGRAPHS ALONG SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS...WHERE SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN A STRONGER EASTERLY COMPONENT...COULD SUPPORT A TORNADO. OTHERWISE...EXPECTED INITIATION OF WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PROVIDES POTENTIAL FOR EVOLUTION OF LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. IF THIS OCCURS...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE AS DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ENHANCES EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS. ..KERR.. 03/23/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 24 00:44:23 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 23 Mar 2006 19:44:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060324004700.0563BD46FF@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240044 SWODY1 SPC AC 240043 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0643 PM CST THU MAR 23 2006 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN FL AND SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS ACROSS FL SUGGESTS WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH DECAYING MCS AND NUMEROUS MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS SRN/SERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AS IT TRACKS NEWD OVER THE ATLANTIC AND DEVELOPMENT IS ENHANCED BY STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE NCNTRL GULF COAST. AS THE LOW MOVES NEWD AND DEEPENS EAST OF GA/SC THROUGH TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWD ACROSS FL AND INTO THE FL STRAITS BY FRIDAY MORNING. PLUME OF MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRANSPORTED NEWD FROM THE ERN GULF ACROSS SRN FL TONIGHT ON DEEP WSWLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES... AND LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT...COULD STILL PROMOTE SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. WHILE A STRONG STORM OR TWO COULD STILL OCCUR GIVEN BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND RELATIVELY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...RECENT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAKENING LAPSE RATES AND DIURNAL COOLING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DIMINISHING SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. ..CARBIN.. 03/24/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 24 12:54:07 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 24 Mar 2006 07:54:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060324125641.9BEF4D4478@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241254 SWODY1 SPC AC 241253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 AM CST FRI MAR 24 2006 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS NOAM THIS PERIOD. WRN MEMBER OF BLOCK...UPR LOW NOW CENTERED OFF THE BC COAST...LIKELY WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ROTATE ABOUT IT. LEAD IMPULSE NOW OFF THE WA COAST SHOULD MOVE N/NE ACROSS WRN WA BY LATE TODAY BEFORE CONTINUING N INTO BC TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE NOW NEAR 44N/140W SHOULD CONTINUE E/SE TO JUST OFF THE NRN CA COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. ...NW U.S... NW/SE-ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD UPR DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NNE ACROSS NW ORE/WRN WA LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MID LEVEL COOLING...COUPLED WITH MODEST SURFACE HEATING/OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT...MAY YIELD A BAND OR TWO OF THUNDER ALONG THE CASCADES AND EWD INTO THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN. MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY FORM DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON E INTO THE WA DESERTS. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH...BUT STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE TO STRONG MEAN FLOW MAY YIELD SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN SOME CELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/WEAKEN BY THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT LIFTS N INTO CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY APPROACH THE ORE/FAR NRN CA COAST AS NEXT AND POSSIBLY STRONGER IMPULSE NEARS REGION. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 03/24/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 24 16:31:32 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 24 Mar 2006 11:31:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060324163406.8F65FD4A83@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241628 SWODY1 SPC AC 241627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 AM CST FRI MAR 24 2006 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION... UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND LARGE UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY SE OUT OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THIS LOW AS WELL AS APPROACHING VORT MAX AND PATCHY SUNSHINE MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY. TO THE WEST...A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS WA AND OREGON WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TOO LOW FOR SEVERE PROBABILITIES...ALTHOUGH SMALL/SUB-SEVERE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS GIVEN VERY COLD AIR ALOFT. OVERNIGHT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OFF THE NRN CA COAST AS STRONG UPPER LOW AND JET MAX NOSE INTO THE AREA. ..JEWELL/HALES.. 03/24/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 24 19:40:02 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 24 Mar 2006 14:40:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060324194235.BFA8BD4478@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241940 SWODY1 SPC AC 241939 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 PM CST FRI MAR 24 2006 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WESTERN STATES... SEVERAL IMPULSES ARE READILY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ROTATING THROUGH A BROAD MID/UPPER CIRCULATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE...BUT SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF WASHINGTON/OREGON. WARMING ALOFT IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN OREGON IN WAKE OF IMPULSE...AND AHEAD OF A MORE VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. LATTER FEATURE IS STILL WELL WEST OF COAST AREAS...BUT STRONG FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHWEST OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS TOWARD 12Z SATURDAY. WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY UNDERWAY WHERE MID-LEVELS REMAIN COLD. WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING... DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCE SEEMS TO BE WEST OF THE CASCADES...WHERE MOIST UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW/OROGRAPHY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FORCING...BUT WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM NORTH CENTRAL/ NORTHEAST OREGON INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER DARK... BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD APPROACH SOUTHERN OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. ...EASTERN STATES... A COLD SURFACE RIDGE ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...A WEAKNESS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AS A COLD CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS IS OCCURRING ALONG A MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AXIS...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO VERY WEAK SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE RATHER SHALLOW NATURE OF CONVECTION...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXED PHASE LAYER IS RATHER LOW TO THE GROUND...AND IN CAPE BEARING LAYER...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 03/24/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 25 00:38:46 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 24 Mar 2006 19:38:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060325004118.7E238D45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250039 SWODY1 SPC AC 250037 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 PM CST FRI MAR 24 2006 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD CORE LOWS PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...AND OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH WEAK DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION HAVING OCCURRED NEAR THESE FEATURES TODAY. MOST CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DIMINISH WITH THE ONSET OF DARKNESS. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT PACIFIC IMPULSE WAS ALREADY EVIDENT AS BAROCLINIC CLOUD BAND DEVELOPS ACROSS WRN ORE. GIVEN THE FORECAST OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND LOW STATIC STABILITY ACCOMPANYING THIS DISTURBANCE ACROSS NRN CA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...A FEW TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH 25/12Z. ..CARBIN.. 03/25/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 25 05:37:20 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 25 Mar 2006 00:37:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060325054045.912FCD42B0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250537 SWODY1 SPC AC 250535 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 PM CST FRI MAR 24 2006 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEVADA...SOUTHERN IDAHO...AND NORTHWEST UTAH... ...SYNOPSIS... MORE ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE WRN STATES THIS PERIOD AS SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DEVELOPS INLAND FROM THE ERN PACIFIC...ACROSS NRN CA TODAY...AND THEN OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE... EXTENSIVE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE ROCKIES NWD TO CNTRL CANADA WILL TRANSLATE GRADUALLY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WRN GREAT LAKES AREAS WHILE OH VALLEY COLD CORE LOW DRIFTS SEWD OVER THE APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC. WHILE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE BENEATH THE COLD CORE LOW IN THE EAST...LARGER TSTM AREA AND MORE LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THE STRONG SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE WEST. ...NRN CA... PRONOUNCED COOLING ALOFT AND STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND 90-100KT MID LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS NRN CA COAST ON SATURDAY MORNING. FOCUSED ASCENT ALONG EWD ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE MAY SUPPORT A LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE DAY. DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING BENEATH MID LEVEL DRY SLOT COULD LOCALLY BOOST MUCAPE VALUES TO NEAR 500 J/KG IN THE NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED SSELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THIS AREA WILL BE TOPPED BY 40-50KT WLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS TO RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION TO BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...A FEW SEVERE HAIL EVENTS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE UNTIL INSTABILITY AND STORMS WANE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. ...NRN GREAT BASIN... MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OF 90-120M PER 12H WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE THROUGH THE MORNING AND DRIVE A STRONG FRONTAL BAND EAST INTO NRN NEVADA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS VERY GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A LOW-TOPPED SQUALL LINE WILL FORM ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT...FROM SWRN ID TO CNTRL NV...BY 21Z. INSTABILITY WITHIN AND AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK DUE TO COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...A DRY AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP CONVECTIVE COLD POOL ALONG THE ADVANCING LINE OF FORCED ASCENT. INCREASINGLY STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL LEAD TO RAPID COLD POOL MOTION AND EXPECT OCCASIONALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE AS IT SPREAD EAST ACROSS NRN NV AND NWRN UT FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 03/25/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 25 13:00:45 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 25 Mar 2006 08:00:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060325130313.B146DD49BE@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251301 SWODY1 SPC AC 251258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST SAT MAR 25 2006 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NRN AND CNTRL CA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN GRT BASIN... ...SYNOPSIS... SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW POTENT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW NEAR 41N/128W UNDERCUTTING BROADER ERN GULF OF AK TROUGH. THE IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN CA TODAY BEFORE CONTINUING E ACROSS THE NRN GRT BASIN LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...AND REACHING WRN WY EARLY SUNDAY. AT LOWER LEVELS...ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW APPROX 175 MILES WNW OF EUREKA SHOULD REFORM E OF THE NRN SIERRA LATER TODAY...AND MOVE INTO THE SNAKE RVR VLY THIS EVENING. IN THE EAST...MAIN COLD POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH OH VLY UPR LOW APPEARS TO BE ENTERING SRN WV ATTM. THE COLD POCKET SHOULD SHIFT E TO OFF THE DELMARVA CST BY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW ITSELF TRACKS E ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER. ...NRN/CNTRL CA... COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF CA LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT MAY YIELD LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH FEW SPOTS OF THUNDER ALONG FRONTAL BAND AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL TO BELOW MINUS 25C. COUPLED WITH 90-100KT MID LEVEL JET...THE CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. IN THE WAKE OF MAIN COLD FRONT...CURRENT SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST THAT A SECONDARY AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS LIKELY WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SAME REGION LATER IN THE DAY. SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS FRONTOGENETIC AREA BY AFTERNOON...WHERE POCKETS OF MODERATE SURFACE HEATING /MARCH SUN/ WILL BE AUGMENTED BY CONTINUED MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...CURRENT DATA SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE RECYCLED FROM PREFRONTAL RAIN WILL MAINTAIN AVERAGE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50. THESE FACTORS MAY BOOST SBCAPE LOCALLY TO NEAR 1000 J/KG OVER PARTS OF THE NRN SACRAMENTO VLY...WITH VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG LIKELY ALONG THE NRN CA CST. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONTOGENETIC BAND. THE MAIN MID LEVEL JET AXIS WILL SHIFT S OF THE MOST CONVECTIVELY- FAVORED AREA IN CA BY MIDDAY. BUT SUFFICIENT /50 KT/ WLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AT MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF CA AS UPR TROUGH CONTINUES INLAND. AT THE SAME TIME...EXPECTED TRACK OF SURFACE LOW LIKELY WILL MAINTAIN AN OROGRAPHICALLY-INDUCED SLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE NRN SACRAMENTO VLY. THUS...SETUP COULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH LOW LEVEL ROTATION AND TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HAIL. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNSET AS THE LOWER LEVELS COOL AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO REBOUND ALOFT. ...NRN GREAT BASIN... 120M 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS WILL CROSS THE NRN SIERRA AND NRN GRT BASIN LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS UPR TROUGH CONTINUES EWD. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN STRENGTH OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING NRN CA AS IT REDEVELOPS E OF THE SIERRA BY MIDDAY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF UPR IMPULSE WILL...HOWEVER...LIKELY MAINTAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER/POSSIBLE SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT WHICH WILL PRECLUDE STRONG LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF IT. NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF STRONG /60+ KT SW FLOW AT 500 MB/ BACKGROUND WIND FIELD WITH ADVANCING BAND OF FORCED ASCENT MAY YIELD A LINE OF CONVECTION/POSSIBLE THUNDER WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND ACROSS NRN NV/NW UT AND THE SNAKE RVR VLY OF ID FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ...SRN WV TO ATLANTIC CST... SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION/ISOLATED THUNDER EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY MID LEVEL COLD POCKET TRACKING E TOWARD THE TIDEWATER REGION LATER TODAY. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 03/25/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 25 16:31:25 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 25 Mar 2006 11:31:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060325163353.7B756D46CC@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251630 SWODY1 SPC AC 251629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST SAT MAR 25 2006 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF NRN AND CENTRAL CA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN NV ..SRN ID AND NWRN UT... SYNOPSIS VIGOROUS TROUGH/VORT MAX APPROACHING NRN CA/SRN OR BORDER AREA ATTM AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD REACHING SERN OR/NV BORDER AREA BY 00Z AND INTO WRN WY BY 12Z SUN. COLD FRONT AT 16Z CROSSING NRN/CENTRAL SIERRAS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NRN NV. 80-90KT 500MB JET NOW MOVING INLAND CENTRAL CA WILL SHIFT EWD INTO CENTRAL NV DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG ASCENT SPREADING EWD TO N OF JET AND AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. ...NRN/CENTRAL CA... STRONG MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION NOW SPREADING ACROSS NRN CA SWD TO AROUND 38N OR VICINITY SFO AREA IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WEST OF SIERRAS WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR POTENTIAL OF LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS THRU THE AFTERNOON OR UNTIL UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSES THE AREA. TYPICALLY IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN THE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR AS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOW/MID 40S IN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS. HOWEVER WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MUCAPES AS HIGH AS 500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE INCREASING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL OF A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS. MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO BE E SIDE OF SAC VALLEY WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND BRIEF TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER 00Z AS VEERING FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE OCCURS IN WAKE OF TROUGH MOVING E OF AREA. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING NRN NV WILL INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY DEVELOPS. VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION AS VIGOROUS TROUGH AND MID LEVEL JET DRIVES EWD ACROSS NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT WILL LIKELY PUSH GRADIENT SURFACE WINDS IN GUSTS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED THE STRONG ASCENT WITH THE COLD FRONT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITH THE FROPA. THUS COMBINATION OF GRADIENT AND CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTION WILL PUSH GUSTS TO POTENTIALLY ABOVE 50KTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS NRN NV AND ADJACENT BORDER AREAS OF ID THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO SERN ID AND NRN UT AFTER OOZ. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 03/25/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 25 19:52:28 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 25 Mar 2006 14:52:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060325195454.D5A1AD487F@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251953 SWODY1 SPC AC 251951 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CST SAT MAR 25 2006 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN OREGON INTO NRN NV/SRN ID/NWRN UT... ...NRN CA EWD ACROSS NRN NV/SERN ORE/SRN ID/NWRN UT... STRONG UPPER CIRCULATION NOW MOVING INTO NRN CA/SWRN ORE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS DRY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 30S. HOWEVER...LIMITED HEATING BENEATH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-28 TO -30 C AT H5 WITHIN COLD POOL/ IS CONTRIBUTING TO MINIMAL INSTABILITY -- CONFIRMED BY SCATTERED LIGHTNING STRIKES NOW OCCURRING FROM SERN ORE SWD INTO NWRN NV. STRONG /50 TO 70 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF UPPER CIRCULATION. ALONG WITH STRONG NON-CONVECTIVE WINDS -- PARTICULARLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SEVERE CONVECTIVE GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH LOOSELY-ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG COLD FRONT. GREATEST CONVECTIVE WIND THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS NRN NV AND INTO SERN ORE/SRN ID THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH THIS THREAT WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...STRONG/MAINLY NON-CONVECTIVE WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN UT TOWARD WRN WY/WRN CO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 03/25/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 26 00:27:53 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 25 Mar 2006 19:27:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060326003020.B3CD1D487F@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260028 SWODY1 SPC AC 260026 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0626 PM CST SAT MAR 25 2006 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE ASSOCIATED FRONT EARLIER ACROSS SWRN ID AND NCNTRL NV CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD. 00Z LKN/SLC RAOBS SHOW MEAGER INSTABILITY...BUT A SUBSTANTIAL DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THE FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. STRONG AMBIENT FLOW...DRY SUB-CLOUD ENVIRONMENT AND PRESENCE OF ONGOING CONVECTION WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLD THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS. HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE RVR VLY SWD INTO NRN UT THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. ..RACY.. 03/26/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 26 05:27:49 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 26 Mar 2006 00:27:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060326053013.E57FAD46FF@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260528 SWODY1 SPC AC 260526 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 PM CST SAT MAR 25 2006 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..sYNOPSIS... UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FEATURE A STRONG TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...LOW/MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE CNTRL HI PLAINS EARLY IN THE PD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER IMPULSE. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z MON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE CORN BELT. ...CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES... STRONG DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES THROUGH PEAK HEATING SUNDAY. THOUGH MSTR WILL BE LIMITED...STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AMIDST THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SHORT-LIVED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CO NWD INTO WY. ...CNTRL PLAINS... RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A NARROW RIBBON OF MODIFIED GULF MSTR NWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY EVE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH-LEVEL CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION/ELEVATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER DARK ACROSS CNTRL/ERN KS...NRN OK NEWD INTO MO. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE COLUMN WILL BEGIN TO SATURATE IN THE H85-H7 LAYER AFTER ABOUT 03Z AS STRONGER ASCENT SPREADS EWD. PARCELS SHOULD REACH THEIR LFC ACROSS CNTRL/ERN KS AND NRN OK LATE SUNDAY EVE...WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING NEWD INTO NRN/WRN MO BY 12Z MON ALONG THE NOSE OF THE 50-KT LLJ. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL OWING TO MEAGER MSTR RETURN/ELEVATED BUOYANCY. ..RACY/TAYLOR.. 03/26/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 26 12:59:22 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 26 Mar 2006 07:59:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060326130146.53E9DD46FF@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261259 SWODY1 SPC AC 261257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 AM CST SUN MAR 26 2006 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW PASSING KSLC WILL CONTINUE E INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE THIS EVENING BEFORE REACHING THE NEB/IA BORDER BY 12Z MONDAY. THE SYSTEM MAY AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE PERIOD AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE CNTRL RCKYS SWEEPS SE INTO THE LWR MO VLY AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. ...CNTRL/NRN RCKYS... STRONG DPVA AND MID LEVEL COOLING WILL SPREAD E ACROSS WY AND NRN CO TODAY. COUPLED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN... SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION/STORMS... DESPITE LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS BUT SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY BY EVENING AS UPR TROUGH CONTINUES EWD AND LOWER LEVELS COOL. ...CNTRL PLNS/LWR MO VLY... SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN CNTRL NEB AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPR TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND DEPTH TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS/MID LEVEL COOLING OVERSPREAD EXIT REGION OF SWLY LLJ. THE INFLOW AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MODIFIED POLAR IN ORIGIN. BUT STRONG/SUSTAINED LIFT AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD SCATTERED EMBEDDED STORMS ACROSS ERN NEB/CNTRL KS EWD INTO MUCH OF MO...AND POSSIBLY NE OK/NW AR. WITH ELEVATED CAPE REMAINING LIMITED BY MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN...SEVERE STORMS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 03/26/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 26 16:30:05 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 26 Mar 2006 11:30:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060326163228.A6D40D4573@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261629 SWODY1 SPC AC 261628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 AM CST SUN MAR 26 2006 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...DISCUSSION... MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE COMPACT BUT INTENSE UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF WY/CO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS ERN WY AND NRN CO NEAR THE FRONT AND GIVEN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE. IT IS NOT UNTIL THIS EVENING THAT THERE WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF KS/WRN MO/NRN OK. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EWD FROM WRN NEB/KS AT 00Z INTO WRN MO/CNTRL OK BY 12Z MON. AS THE UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE MOVES E...LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AND BRING MOISTURE NWD INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE...WHERE MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE PRESENT. THUS...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY AFTER 00Z. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TOO LOW FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE. ..JEWELL.. 03/26/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 26 20:06:00 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 26 Mar 2006 15:06:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060326200821.5212AD46DE@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 262006 SWODY1 SPC AC 262004 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CST SUN MAR 26 2006 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING WY/CO WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/TROUGH WILL LIKEWISE DRIFT EWD INTO THE PLAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTER DARK. ...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY AND VICINITY... APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH 50 KT SLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPING THIS EVENING SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK AND VICINITY AFTER DARK. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...AND THEN SHIFT EWD INTO PARTS OF MO AND VICINITY AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS OVERNIGHT. LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS. ..GOSS.. 03/26/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 27 00:38:35 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 26 Mar 2006 19:38:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060327004056.D8503D46CC@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270038 SWODY1 SPC AC 270037 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 PM CST SUN MAR 26 2006 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL PLAINS... VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH EMERGING ONTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EWD TONIGHT. STRONG SLY LLJ AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE HAS ADVECTED A NARROW RIBBON OF MODIFIED CP AIR MASS NWD INTO WRN OK AND CNTRL KS. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM DODGE CITY AND NORMAN...HOWEVER...SHOW THAT THE MEAGER MSTR ADVECTION ALONE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTION. BUT...AS STRONG DPVA AND COOLING ALOFT SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN KS AND NERN OK THIS EVE...THE COLUMN WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE FOR AN ELEVATED TSTM RISK. THIS RISK WILL SPREAD INTO MO AND NWRN AR 09-12Z. BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND NO SEVERE TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED. ..RACY.. 03/27/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 31 05:46:46 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 31 Mar 2006 00:46:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 310547 SWODY1 SPC AC 310546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO NERN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH WELL DEFINED MS VALLEY TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AHEAD OF SFC WIND SHIFT WITH TWO CONVECTIVE EPISODES POSSIBLE. LATE THIS EVENING MULTIPLE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINES HAVE PROGRESSED ACROSS IA/MO INTO IL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE EWD INTO INCREASINGLY HOSTILE BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS OVER THE OH VALLEY WHERE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE GRADUAL WEAKENING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS CONVECTION...A NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITHIN VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM SRN IL INTO SERN LOWER MI. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED...IT APPEARS STRONG HEATING MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. IF SO...ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FORECAST DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. FARTHER SOUTH...SUSTAINED MOISTENING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG TRAILING PORTIONS OF SFC FRONT. THURSDAY NIGHT CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE DAY1 FRIDAY...HOWEVER GRADUAL REINTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS FROM SRN AR INTO MIDDLE TN. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...ORGANIZED BANDS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL FROM EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM ADVECTION ATOP SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONT MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SERN OK. IF THIS EVOLVES...SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE LLJ MAY NOT STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE...STRONG HEATING ALONG WIND SHIFT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TX MAY AID WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING. CONVERGENCE/LIFT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK TO WARRANT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME. ..DARROW/GRAMS.. 03/31/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 31 12:48:09 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 31 Mar 2006 07:48:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 311249 SWODY1 SPC AC 311248 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 AM CST FRI MAR 31 2006 VALID 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID SOUTH/NERN TX... ...OH RIVER VALLEY NWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES... WELL-DEFINED UPPER SYSTEM NOW EJECTING ACROSS THE NRN/MID MS RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TRAILS SSWWD FROM LOW CENTER OVER MN INTO SERN MO AND INTO SERN OK EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED 10-15F ACROSS MUCH OF IND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/OH RIVER VALLEY...WITH 50+F SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WEAKENED OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY NNEWD INTO MI AS ACTIVITY PROGRESSED EAST OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY REMAINING NEAR THE MID MS/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS. HOWEVER...RECENT INCREASING TRENDS OVER SWRN IL INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING FROM THE MID SOUTH EWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL KY AND FAR SRN IND. SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY UNDER BROAD ZONE OF 50+ KT WLY H5 WINDS. ALONG WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EWD EARLY TODAY. MORE VIGOROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT FROM SRN LOWER MI ACROSS IND...WHERE OVERNIGHT MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN REDEVELOPING CONVECTION AROUND 21Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED LINES/SUPERCELLS WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINING QUITE STRONG DESPITE A SWLY DIRECTION TO THE SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE WILL DEVELOP INTO CENTRAL IND...WITH 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE INTO SERN LOWER MI BY 21Z. THUS THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS OH AND TOWARDS THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MID/LATE EVENING. ...MID SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NERN TX... SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL OR MOVE ONLY SLOWLY SSEWD ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF IT. THOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SHIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THIS REGION...LARGE RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL TX INTO NRN LA/SRN AR. IN ADDITION...REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER 40-50 KT WLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS PROVIDING 40+ KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR TODAY. EXPECT AREAS OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINES. LATER TONIGHT...INCREASING SSWLY H85 FLOW SHOULD FOCUS ELEVATED STORMS WITH THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL INTO PORTIONS OF ERN OK/AR INTO WRN TN/NWRN MS. ...NRN CA... PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW JUST OFF THE NRN CA/SWRN ORE COAST WILL SHIFT SLOWLY ESEWD ACROSS NRN CA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WINDS ALOFT WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG WITH 50+ KT SSWLY H5 WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF CA. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY BY 22Z. THUS...ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CORES. ..EVANS/RACY.. 03/31/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 31 16:39:43 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 31 Mar 2006 11:39:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 311640 SWODY1 SPC AC 311639 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1039 AM CST FRI MAR 31 2006 VALID 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID SOUTH/NERN TX... ...OH VALLEY NWD INTO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES... UPPER SYSTEM NOW LOCATED OVER THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. BAND OF 60+ KT WSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL EXTEND ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT TRAILED SSWWD FROM SURFACE LOW OVER NRN WI THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY INTO CENTRAL OK TO NW TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SPREAD EAST AND SOUTH TODAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... REACHING NY AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SWWD TO THE TN RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY. A NARROW AXIS OF UPPER 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAD ADVECTED INTO ERN IL TO CENTRAL IND THIS MORNING WITH 50+ VALUES EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO SRN LOWER MI AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD WITHIN ZONE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA. GENERALLY WEAK TO MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT SEVERE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF SRN LOWER MI SWD ACROSS LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...POTENTIALLY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THIS REGION. PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7+ C/KM/ WILL SPREAD EWD WITH UPPER TROUGH AND ATOP MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL LEVELS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COMBINED WITH INSOLATION IN WAKE OF MORNING CLOUDINESS/CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED MORE NORMAL TO THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT BOTH ORGANIZED LINES/SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES REMAIN QUITE STRONG FOR A TORNADO THREAT. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS OH AND TOWARDS THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MID/LATE EVENING. ...MID SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND PART OF SRN PLAINS... THE SRN EXTENT OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SSEWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND AR...STALLING LATER TODAY. SOMEWHAT MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR STORM COVERAGE FROM THE MID SOUTH SWD GIVEN RISING HEIGHTS/WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...50+ WLY MID LEVEL WINDS LOCATED ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY STORM SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. LOW-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN TODAY WITH MID/UPPER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG/ FROM NERN TX TO MS. LATER TONIGHT...INCREASING SSWLY H85 FLOW SHOULD FOCUS ELEVATED STORMS WITH THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL INTO PORTIONS OF ERN OK/AR INTO WRN TN/NWRN MS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE SUPPORTED BY A WEAK SRN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED ACROSS NWRN/WRN MEXICO...APPROACHING THE SRN PLAINS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...NRN CA... PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW JUST OFF THE NRN CA/SWRN ORE COAST WILL SHIFT SLOWLY ESEWD ACROSS NRN CA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WINDS ALOFT WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG WITH 50+ KT SSWLY H5 WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF CA. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY BY 22Z. THUS... ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CORES. ..PETERS/JEWELL.. 03/31/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 31 20:04:55 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 31 Mar 2006 15:04:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 312005 SWODY1 SPC AC 312003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0203 PM CST FRI MAR 31 2006 VALID 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID SOUTH AND ARKLATEX... ...SRN GREAT LAKES INTO OH VALLEY... STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE 50S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO DESTABILIZATION OF PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS /SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG/ THIS AFTERNOON FROM SWRN LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH WRN IND/ERN IL TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS. SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT COUPLED WITH ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NOW OVER WI WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITHIN THIS INSTABILITY AXIS. CURRENT VAD AND PROFILER DATA IN ADDITION TO RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2. GIVEN ANTICIPATED FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AND THIS SHEAR...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY THIS EVENING...PRIOR TO WEAKENING LATER TONIGHT AS AIR MASS SLOWLY STABILIZES. ...MID SOUTH INTO ARKLATEX... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MESOANALYSIS INDICATE THAT WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN MO THROUGH NRN AR INTO SERN OK. MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S/ CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DIABATIC HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A WEAKLY CAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE /SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ AIR MASS OVER THE WRN TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DIAGNOSTICS SUGGEST THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK --PERHAPS EVEN SUBSIDENT-- THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. NONETHELESS...THE WEAK CAPPING AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS FREE WARM SECTOR NWD TO FRONTAL ZONE. PRESENCE OF 40-50 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER MIDWEST LOW IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH LATE EVENING. A BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...GIVEN MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /PER OKOLONA MS PROFILER/. ...RED RIVER VALLEY... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASE ALONG AND N OF SURFACE FRONT. STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE NWD-RETURNING MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH THE BUOYANCY LAYER...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ...NRN CA... CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA SHOW PRIMARY FRONTAL CLOUD BAND FROM NWRN CA SWWD INTO THE ERN PACIFIC. WITH ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF SURFACE FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE OWING TO COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OWING TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. ...CNTRL TX... VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT AIR MASS IS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH A WEAKENING CAP ALONG A LOOSELY-DEFINED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE ACROSS REGION. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS INTO THIS EVENING. ..MEAD.. 03/31/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 1 00:42:57 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 28 Feb 2006 19:42:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060301004416.AB728D4596@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010041 SWODY1 SPC AC 010040 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2006 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN//NRN ROCKIES... UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE WEST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY WITH TIME AS IT IMPINGES UPON PERSISTENT LARGE-SCALE RIDGE. PRECIPITATION WITH LOCAL/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...THOUGH AIRMASS WILL DIURNALLY STABILIZE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THOUGH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT/STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...LITTLE IF ANY SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED. ..GOSS.. 03/01/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 1 06:09:45 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 01 Mar 2006 01:09:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060301061106.BF47DD4596@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010604 SWODY1 SPC AC 010602 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1202 AM CST WED MAR 01 2006 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE...CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS AND REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EWD...RIDGE WILL RE-AMPLIFY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF SECOND TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WHICH SHOULD REACH THE W COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER OVER PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY REGION...WHILE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO NM...AS WELL AS ALONG THE W COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...OH VALLEY REGION... MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY...AS STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER...DESPITE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL THUS SUGGESTING THAT ANY THREAT FOR MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL. ...FOUR CORNERS REGION ACROSS SRN CO/NM... A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR OVER THIS REGION AS WEAK SRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE DESERT SW. ...W COAST... A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY REACH WRN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NRN CA NWD INTO COASTAL ORE AND PERHAPS COASTAL WA LATE IN THE PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE W COAST. ..GOSS/GUYER.. 03/01/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 1 12:42:27 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 01 Mar 2006 07:42:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060301124352.3B310D41B8@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011241 SWODY1 SPC AC 011240 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 AM CST WED MAR 01 2006 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...OH VALLEY AREA TONIGHT... A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY...AND THEN ESEWD OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE CYCLONE NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER WILL DEVELOP EWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. A MODIFYING AIR MASS IS RETURNING NWD/NEWD IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS CYCLONE...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 55-60 F FROM ERN OK SWD ACROSS E TX. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NEWD TO THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION. THOUGH A PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME WILL GENERALLY INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT SW OF THE SURFACE LOW...PERSISTENT WAA/ASCENT SHOULD LEAD TO SATURATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS BY TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF IL/IN/OH. ...PAC NW COAST... A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG ROUGHLY 135 W WILL MOVE INLAND OVER NW CA AND WRN OR/WA BY LATE TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CELLULAR CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH...WHILE OCEANIC LIGHTNING DETECTION DATA INDICATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE INITIAL BAROCLINIC BAND NEAR 125 W. OFFSHORE FLOW OF A DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR MASS MAY KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LARGELY OFFSHORE WITH THE FRONT TODAY. EXPECT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS NW CA AND W OF THE CASCADES IN WA/ORE AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREAD INLAND. ...SRN ROCKIES... A SRN STREAM TROUGH...NOW NEAR 30 N AND 120 W...WILL MOVE ENEWD OVER AZ/NM BY TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW A PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING IS NECESSARY BELOW 700 MB TO SUSTAIN A THUNDERSTORM THREAT...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE ERN EXTENT OF THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS IN QUESTION...THOUGH ASCENT OVER A SWWD MOVING COLD FRONT MAY PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION TONIGHT INVOF ERN NM. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 03/01/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 1 16:30:47 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 01 Mar 2006 11:30:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060301163219.977E0D4645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011629 SWODY1 SPC AC 011628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 AM CST WED MAR 01 2006 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...OH VALLEY AREA... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE ESEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. RESULTING THETA-E ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION WITH MARGINAL MUCAPE POSSIBLE. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS...ESPECIALLY N OF E-W BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS SRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY. ...SWRN U.S.... LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF THE SRN CA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE SWRN STATES. PERSISTENT ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GRADUAL MID LEVEL MOISTENING...AND LAPSE RATES APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MARGINAL MUCAPE DESPITE VERY LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ELEVATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ...PACIFIC NW THROUGH NWRN CA... LIGHTNING DATA SHOW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION WITHIN A FRONTAL BAND FROM OFF THE WA COAST SWD TO OFF THE CA COAST. NRN PORTION OF THIS FRONTAL BAND MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS PERIOD AS LEAD IMPULSE EJECTS NWD INTO WRN CANADA. HOWEVER...SECONDARY IMPULSE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO NRN CA. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NRN CA INTO SWRN OR AS FRONTAL BAND MOVES INLAND AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING THE IMPULSE SPREADS INLAND LATER TONIGHT. ..DIAL.. 03/01/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 1 19:58:24 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 01 Mar 2006 14:58:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060301195954.374DED48E1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011956 SWODY1 SPC AC 011955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 PM CST WED MAR 01 2006 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE RIDGING IN CENTRAL CONUS AND TROUGHS OFF E AND W COASTS...WITH PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW PENETRATING MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER NRN HIGH PLAINS...AND SHOULD DEVELOP CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW TONIGHT ACROSS DAKOTAS/MN BORDER REGION BEFORE MOVING TO UPPER MS VALLEY. ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE -- NOW ANALYZED OVER NWRN MO -- IS FCST TO MOVE GENERALLY EWD OVER IL/INDIANA OVERNIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT -- NOW EXTENDING FROM LOW SWWD ACROSS TX PANHANDLE -- WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS AND MO/AR TONIGHT...REACHING WRN KY...ARKLATEX AREA...AND LOWER PECOS VALLEY REGION BY 2/12Z. MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS SHOULD FALL OVER NRN CA AS STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD TOWARD DAY-2 LANDFALL. SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SRN CA/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY REGION WILL EJECT NEWD TOWARD 4-CORNERS AREA OVERNIGHT. ...SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... INTENSIFYING AND MOISTENING SWLY/WSWLY LLJ IS FCST TONIGHT...WITH ORIGINS IN PARTIALLY MODIFIED AIR MASS TRAJECTORIES FROM WRN GULF. AS RH INCREASES IN ELEVATED LOW LEVEL AIR TONIGHT...PARCELS WILL BE ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED TO LFC WITH SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS REGION. GREATEST THUNDER PROBABILITIES SHOULD BE INVOF WNW-ESE ORIENTED 850 MB WARM FRONT. RUC/ETA SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION INDICATE UP TO ABOUT 300 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS TO 4-CORNERS REGION... POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL SHIFT FROM W-E ACROSS AREA THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. BROAD AREA OF WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS FCST TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FROM W-E ACROSS AZ AND WRN NM...THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES WILL BE AIDED BY DIABATIC SFC HEATING FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS WELL. COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF MORE ROBUST LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS ERN NM AND WRN TX PANHANDLE REGION. GRADUAL MOISTENING IN MIDLEVELS MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED MUCAPES 100-200 J/KG. ...W COAST... SCATTERED/EPISODIC TSTMS HAVE BEEN DETECTED IN PORTIONS OF BAROCLINICALLY ENHANCED CLOUD/CONVECTIVE BAND...NOW APCHG NRN CA/ORE COAST. TSTM POTENTIAL IS FCST TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NRN CA AND WRN ORE AS ENHANCED LIFT...ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL ZONE...MOVES INLAND. ..EDWARDS.. 03/01/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 4 05:51:43 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 04 Mar 2006 00:51:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060304055429.241F3D4939@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040552 SWODY1 SPC AC 040551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 PM CST FRI MAR 03 2006 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.... IN THE WAKE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST...RIDGING HAS COOLED/DRIED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS SUGGEST UPPER TROUGHING WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS TODAY...BUT MODIFICATION OF LOWER LEVELS WILL BE SLOWER TO OCCUR. ONLY THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY UNAFFECTED BY THE COLD/DRY INTRUSION...AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF RETURNING NORTHWARD... WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER TOWARD THE TEXAS BIG BEND. IN A NARROW TONGUE...THIS MOISTURE SEEMS LIKELY TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY...AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS/ STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. UPPER SYSTEM HAS LIFTED OUT OF BASE OF BROADER SCALE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH...AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY PROGRESS INTO MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION OVER THE PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST IN RESPONSE TO VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NOW DIGGING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. MID-LEVEL HEIGHT/TEMPERATURE RISES ACROSS THE WEST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THAT AREA TODAY. BUT...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUING/INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... NARROW TONGUE OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND NORTH OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH A RELATIVELY WEAK MOISTURE RETURN...MODELS SUGGEST SEASONABLY STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG DRY LINE...AND CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS WILL OCCUR BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KT. SUPPRESSION OF MID-LEVEL INHIBITION DURING/SHORTLY AFTER THE PEAK HEATING HOURS APPEARS LIKELY TO ALLOW INITIATION OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A FEW VIGOROUS STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE...INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH ENHANCED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. THREAT MAY NOT CONTINUE MUCH BEYOND 04/01-02Z...AS MID/UPPER FORCING SHIFTS ABOVE COOLER MORE STRONGLY CAPPED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED THIS FAR NORTH...BUT LAPSE RATES STEEP ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL SEEM LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE AUGMENTED BY SPEED MAXIMA IN A SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR WESTERLIES...WHICH IS PROGGED TO NOSE ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AS JET STREAK CONTINUES TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT ...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EASTWARD IN STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LACK OF BETTER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT CAPE...BUT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY/SHEAR MAY CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. ..KERR/CROSBIE.. 03/04/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 4 12:39:46 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 04 Mar 2006 07:39:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060304124230.673B7D4634@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041240 SWODY1 SPC AC 041238 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 AM CST SAT MAR 04 2006 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER SRN ID THIS AM WILL CONTINUE NEWD ACROSS ERN MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO SRN CANADA TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW WY WITH COLD FRONT SWWD INTO WRN AZ. LOW MOVES NEWD INTO WRN SD THIS AFTERNOON AND A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS IN LEE TROUGH OVER ERN CO. COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS WRN DAKOTAS DURING EVENING WITH SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE DEVELOPING SWD THRU WRN NEB/KS THEN SSWWD VICINITY ERN NM/TX BORDER. CURRENTLY STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO INCREASE GULF MOISTURE PRIMARILY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS FAR N AS SRN NE AS EVIDENCED BY ACTIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION LAST SEVERAL HOURS CENTRAL KS/SRN NE. WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW CONTINUING...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO AOA 50F AS FAR N AS WRN KS BY THIS EVENING. COOL/STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS HIGH PLAINS DURING AFTERNOON AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... HAVE INCREASED THE THREAT OF SEVERE NWD INTO WRN KS/SWRN NEB FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT NOW APPEARS THAT GIVEN THE MOISTURE RETURN AND COOLING ALOFT...SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION LIKELY VICINITY SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50KTS ALONG WITH A VEERING PROFILE SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM ROTATION...THE MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SUPPORTS PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD OVERNIGHT SRN NE/NRN KS WITH ENHANCED LIFT FROM APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT FROM THE W. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS.... WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT VICINITY ERN NM/TX BORDER FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...DEPENDENT ON SUFFICIENT HEATING TO WEAKEN THE CAP. CURRENT HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD SHIFT EWD LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR 70F ERN NM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 50S AND PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL PRIMARY THREAT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING HOURS. ..HALES.. 03/04/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 4 16:30:46 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 04 Mar 2006 11:30:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060304163339.216A8D4634@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041631 SWODY1 SPC AC 041629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST SAT MAR 04 2006 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL HI PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... COMPACT UPR LOW NOW OVER ERN ID EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NE INTO ERN MT LATER TODAY...BEFORE TURNING MORE E ACROSS ND TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN WY/CO SHOULD LIFT NE INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING. IN THE SRN STREAM...AN IMPULSE ATTM OVER THE LWR CO VLY EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE INTO CO/NM EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE CONTINUING E ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS EARLY SUNDAY. AT LWR LEVELS...LEE LOW NOW OVER SE MT WILL DRIFT NE INTO WRN ND WHILE APPROACH OF SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE INDUCES MODEST SURFACE DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEE TROUGH IN NE CO/NW KS. THE LATTER FEATURE SHOULD TRACK E/NE INTO SE NEB BY 12Z SUNDAY. ...SRN HI PLNS... MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING OVER MUCH OF THE SRN HI PLNS TODAY. BUT SOME LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR OVER PARTS OF ERN NM/W TX AND THE WRN PORTION THE TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEAR/MIX EWD. PERSISTENT SELY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP AT LEAST A MODEST SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER REGION...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 40S OR LOW 50S. WEAK UPSLOPE/CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG LEE TROUGH...AND APPROACH OF SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE...MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN NM AND PERHAPS PARTS OF SW TX LATER TODAY. WITH MLCAPE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 500 J/KG IN HEATED AREAS AND DEEP WSWLY SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS...SETUP COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ...CNTRL HI PLNS... SURFACE HEATING WILL STEEPEN LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS AND SW NEB TODAY...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED ATTM. BUT 12Z KAMA RAOB WITH +8 C DEWPOINT AND 40 KT SLY LLJ SUGGESTS THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW KS/SW NEB BY LATE TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT. COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY TAIL END OF NRN STREAM TROUGH...EXPECT THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM INVOF LEE LOW BY EARLY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY INCLUDE A FEW ROTATING STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLY HIGH WIND GIVEN 40+ KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR AND STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD E IN DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN NEB AND KS TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 03/04/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 6 05:17:51 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 06 Mar 2006 00:17:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060306052030.9A46CD4A81@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060518 SWODY1 SPC AC 060517 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 PM CST SUN MAR 05 2006 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD AS TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR ERN PACIFIC MOVES ONSHORE. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL CONCURRENTLY BUILD EWD THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY...WHILE MID/UPPER-LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY ACCELERATES SEWD TO ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTS BY TUESDAY MORNING. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM IMPULSE CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS THIS EVENING. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH FL AND THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY...INITIALLY STALLED ACROSS CNTRL TX...WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS ON BACKSIDE OF EWD-MIGRATING RIDGE AXIS. FARTHER TO THE W...PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE...EVENTUALLY PUSHING EWD INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. ...INTERMOUNTAIN W... INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND RESULTANT STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF ERN PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG COLD FRONT AND ANY OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST AS INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED. ...KS/OK... LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO INCREASING HEIGHT/PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 40-50 KT SLY LLJ TONIGHT FROM W TX TO THE DAKOTAS. IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL OCCUR ALONG RETREATING NW-SE ORIENTED 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS KS/OK WHERE A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES OF 500-700 J/KG. THIS THREAT IS TOO LIMITED ATTM TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF LOW PROBABILITIES. ...NC/SC/GA... CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS OVER TN/MS/AL WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EWD/SEWD TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. HERE TOO...IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SEVERE CONVECTION. ..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 03/06/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 6 12:49:39 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 06 Mar 2006 07:49:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060306125217.DD7B4D42E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061249 SWODY1 SPC AC 061247 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 AM CST MON MAR 06 2006 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD FROM THE THE W CST ACROSS THE GRT BASIN TO THE CNTRL/NRN RCKYS THIS PERIOD AS TROUGH NOW OFF THE CA CST MOVES ONSHORE AND ASSOCIATED UPR LOW LIFTS NE INTO BC. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE SHOULD PROGRESS FROM THE RCKYS TO THE MS VLY... WHILE UPR LOW NOW OVER WI DROPS SE TO THE NC CST. AT LWR LEVELS...LOW NOW OVER SC SHOULD MOVE E/SE OFF THE NC CST BEFORE DEEPENING LATER TONIGHT AS UPR IMPULSE ARRIVES FROM WI. TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM LOW WILL DROP SE ACROSS GA TODAY AND INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT...WHILE WRN PART BEGINS TO REFORM NWD AS A WARM FRONT IN TX/OK. FARTHER NW...LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE HI PLNS AS COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC SYSTEM REACHES THE RCKYS TUESDAY MORNING. ...INTERMOUNTAIN RGN THRU PERIOD... INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT NOW MOVING ASHORE IN NRN CA. THIS MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG BOUNDARY AS IT CONTINUES E/NE ACROSS THE GRT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY THE NRN RCKYS. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR OVER OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS IN WAKE OF FRONT OVER THE PAC NW AND THE WRN/NRN GRT BASIN. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT. ...E CNTRL INTO SE TX THIS AFTN... MODERATE INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 1000 J PER KG/ WILL DEVELOP WITH SURFACE HEATING OVER SE AND E CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG AND SW OF STALLING FRONT. SHALLOW NATURE OF FRONT...AND FACT THAT BOUNDARY WILL BE BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP N DURING THE PERIOD... SUGGEST THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG FEATURE WILL BE BOTH SHALLOW AND WEAK. IN ADDITION...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT 850-600 MB LAYER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM...LIMITING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. WHILE A FEW BUILDUPS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY FORM OVER REGION FOLLOWING MAX HEATING...AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS SHOULD MITIGATE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED TSTMS. ...NC/SC THIS EVENING... FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD TEMPORARILY WEAKEN OVER SC AND SRN NC TODAY AS SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW PASSING THE SRN APPALACHIANS CONTINUES EWD. ASCENT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS POTENT UPSTREAM SYSTEM TRACKS SE FROM WI. COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL UPLIFT ALONG COLD FRONTAL SEGMENT NEAR THE SC/NC BORDER...SETUP MAY SUPPORT POSSIBLE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG BOUNDARY EARLY TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUESDAY. ...KS/OK EARLY TUESDAY... LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN TO 40-50 KTS FROM W TX TO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE STRONGEST WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD OCCUR ALONG DEVELOPING NW/SE- ORIENTED 850 MB FRONT ACROSS KS/OK...WHERE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INFLUX MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS LATE IN THE PERIOD. SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE OF 500-700 J/KG. THIS THREAT...HOWEVER...APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 03/06/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 6 16:32:08 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 06 Mar 2006 11:32:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060306163445.C3DDCD4968@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061628 SWODY1 SPC AC 061626 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1026 AM CST MON MAR 06 2006 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PAC COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... A MID LEVEL TROUGH...WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY CENTERS NEAR 47 N / 127 W AND 36 N / 124 W...IS MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE PAC COAST FROM CENTRAL CA NWD TO WRN WA/OR THIS MORNING. LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH IS SPREADING INLAND...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY EARLY TONIGHT...WHERE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED/SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL PERSIST IN CONJUNCTION WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ...ERN OK AREA LATE TONIGHT... A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY...WHILE THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL ACROSS E TX LATER TODAY. GIVEN ONLY WEAK/SHALLOW ASCENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY...THE CAP SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS ERN OK...IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING L0W-LEVEL WAA AND WEAK INSTABILITY BASED NEAR 850 MB. ...CAROLINAS TONIGHT... A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS AS OF LATE MORNING...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING SEWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY/APPALACHIANS. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED THIS AREA...LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ASCENT WITH THE SECOND TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY TONIGHT. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 03/06/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 6 19:55:54 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 06 Mar 2006 14:55:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060306195828.D984BD4A5A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061954 SWODY1 SPC AC 061953 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CST MON MAR 06 2006 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CAROLINAS... MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE SEWD TO THE CAROLINAS BY 06Z AND OFF THE COAST BY 09Z. LEE-SFC LOW OVER UPSTATE SC WILL TRACK TO NEAR KCHS BY 03Z AND TO THE WRN ATLANTIC BASIN AFTER 06Z. SFC FLOW MAY BACK VCNTY THE LOW TO ADVECT/MAINTAIN MID 40S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS THROUGH MID-EVENING. AS H5 TEMPERATURES COOL AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE CONTRIBUTES TO MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN...A LOW TSTM PROBABILITY WILL EXIST DURING THE EVENING. ...CNTRL/ERN OK... AS THE NOCTURNAL LLJ VEERS LATER TONIGHT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS... ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES ENHANCED ALONG AN H85-H7 BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED ACROSS OK. SUFFICIENT MOISTENING IN THAT LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AND PERHAPS AN ELEVATED TSTM THREAT AFTER ABOUT 09Z. ...WRN STATES... LARGE SCALE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD INTO THE WRN STATES THIS AFTN WITH SMALLER SCALE VORTICITY CENTERS MOVING INTO WRN WA AND CNTRL CA. COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. MOST OF THE TSTM THREAT WILL BE TIED TO THE IMPULSE THAT WILL TRACK FROM CNTRL CA INTO THE NRN GRT BASIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. ..RACY.. 03/06/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 7 00:53:17 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 06 Mar 2006 19:53:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060307005553.194CAD4AA9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070053 SWODY1 SPC AC 070052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 PM CST MON MAR 06 2006 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WRN STATES... 07/00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT WEAK INSTABILITY INVOF COLD MID-LEVEL TROUGH /I.E. -28 TO -30 C AT 500 MB/ MOVING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. DESPITE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM REGION OF STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT WWD TO NEAR TROUGH AXIS. ...OK/SRN KS... SURFACE ANALYSIS AND 07/00Z FTW SOUNDING SHOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING NWD THROUGH TX WITH WEAK WARM FRONT/MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY EXTENDING FROM THE NERN TX PNHDL SEWD THROUGH SWRN OK AND INTO E-CNTRL TX. STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ OVERNIGHT FROM WRN PORTIONS OF TX/OK INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL ENHANCE NWD RETURN OF THIS MOISTURE THROUGH THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTMS WILL EXIST LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG RETREATING 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HERE...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR PARCELS ORIGINATING FROM AROUND 800 MB. ...CAROLINAS... FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW TRANSLATING SEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS IS CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS THIS EVENING OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. MORE RECENTLY...ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER N-CNTRL SC/S-CNTRL NC...TO THE N OF ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW. EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT AS THIS UPPER LOW CONTINUES SEWD THROUGH AREA. ..MEAD.. 03/07/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 7 12:59:44 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 07 Mar 2006 07:59:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060307130345.D1047D42E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071258 SWODY1 SPC AC 071257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 AM CST TUE MAR 07 2006 VALID 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD WRN U.S. TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THIS PERIOD AS STRONG UPSTREAM SYSTEM CROSSES THE GULF OF ALASKA. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM CNTRL MT TO ERN UT SHOULD MOVE NE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE PLNS TODAY...WITH TAIL END GRAZING WRN AND NRN KS. MAIN UPSTREAM IMPULSE IN THE SAME BRANCH OF FLOW IS ATTM JUST OFF THE SRN ORE/NRN CA CST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD DIG SE TO NEAR KLAS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. FARTHER S...SATELLITE DEPICTS A FAST-MOVING SRN STREAM IMPULSE ABOUT 500 MILES SW OF NRN BAJA CA. THIS FEATURE IS NOT WELL-DEPICTED IN THE MODELS BUT EXTRAPOLATION WOULD TAKE IT INTO WRN NM THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS SRN KS TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT LWR LEVELS...EXPECT THAT LEE LOW NOW OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AND CONSOLIDATE OVER NW KS WHILE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD UPR DISTURBANCE SETTLES SE ACROSS THE NRN PLNS. FARTHER S...DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH SHOULD MIX E INTO W CNTRL KS AND INTO THE ERN OK/TX PANHANDLES AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SPREADS NWD FROM THE RED RVR VLY INTO MUCH OF KS/WRN AR AND...BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...WRN MO. ...CNTRL/SRN PLNS... MORNING RAOB AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE IS RETURNING NWD ATTM IN A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED LAYER ACROSS OK AND KS. MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE NOW PRESENT S OF A KTYR/KABI LINE MAY SPREAD N OF THE RED RVR BY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE RETURN AND SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION E OF DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH IN NW TX/WRN AND CNTRL OK AND CNTRL KS TODAY... WITH MLCAPE LIKELY INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG DESPITE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUDS. CAPPING WILL...HOWEVER... LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRECLUDE SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT IN AREAS OF LOCALIZED ASCENT. WHILE BOTH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF TX/OK AND KS...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT LIKELY WILL REMAIN WEAK. THE NW HALF OF KS WILL BE GLANCED BY PASSING NRN STREAM IMPULSE THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY...BUT REGION MAY EXPERIENCE NEUTRAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LARGE SCALE UVV IN WAKE OF TROUGH. FARTHER S...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT APPEARS EVEN MORE LIMITED THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH BY EARLY EVENING THE PANHANDLES REGION MAY EXPERIENCE WEAK UPLIFT AS SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE LIMITED...DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LOCALIZED ASCENT FROM NW TX TO VICINITY OF DEEPENING LOW IN NW KS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIAL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DEVELOPMENT MAY BE IN KS...WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE LOW BENEATH COMPARATIVELY COOLER AIR ALOFT. MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM ALONG DRYLINE IN WRN OK/NW TX. DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA WILL BE MORE DEPENDENT ON STRONG HEATING AND DRYLINE CIRCULATIONS TO OVERCOME CAP. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN 45-55 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER WSWLY SHEAR...WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY MOIST...RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALSO SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN BECOME SUSTAINED/DISCRETE. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER NRN AND ERN OK AND CNTRL/ERN KS AS AFOREMENTIONED SRN BRANCH IMPULSE CONTINUES NE AND LLJ/MOISTURE INFLOW FURTHER STRENGTHEN. WHILE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME ELEVATED AND WILL EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AS THE STORMS MOVE/ DEVELOP NE INTO PARTS OF MO/NW AR. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 03/07/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 7 16:45:18 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 07 Mar 2006 11:45:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060307164803.2AF90D4968@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071642 SWODY1 SPC AC 071641 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 AM CST TUE MAR 07 2006 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM WRN OK INTO CENTRAL/SE KS.... ...KS/OK AREA THROUGH TONIGHT... AN INITIAL LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS. A DEVELOPING WAA REGIME WILL SUPPORT WEAK INSTABILITY BASED IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...AND AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM ERN KS/WRN MO NWD AND NEWD IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING MID LEVEL WAVE. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY POSE A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WRN MO INTO IA. FARTHER S...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS SPREADING NWD FROM TX ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN OK TO SRN KS. BY LATE AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS OF 56-60 F AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 78-82 F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE FROM NW TX ACROSS WRN OK INTO S CENTRAL KS. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SOME WARMING WILL OCCUR IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER ABOVE THE DEVELOPING MOISTURE AXIS...AND THAT SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE IN KS/OK. LOCAL DRYLINE CIRCULATIONS AND DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL BE THE ONLY APPRECIABLE SUPPORTING FACTORS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION...GIVEN THAT THE HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PASS LARGELY N OF THE UNSTABLE SURFACE WARM SECTOR BY MID AFTERNOON. A GREATER CHANCE STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED BY LATE EVENING INTO TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL KS SWD INTO NRN OK IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NOCTURNAL LLJ...AND AS A WEAK SUBTROPICAL WAVE /NOW NEAR BAJA CA/ APPROACHES FROM THE SW IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGER SCALE HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH WIND PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL AS A PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT EVOLVE OVERNIGHT. THE TORNADO THREAT IS IN QUESTION GIVEN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL L0W-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE NOCTURNAL AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 03/07/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 7 19:56:09 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 07 Mar 2006 14:56:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060307195839.7729AD42E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071956 SWODY1 SPC AC 071955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... N-S BANDS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VLY AHEAD OF A WEAK LEAD MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MIGRATING THROUGH THE PLAINS. ISOLD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS ACROSS NRN MO OR SRN IA THROUGH LATE AFTN...BUT IT APPEARS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION HAS DECREASED. ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE HEART OF THE PLAINS. GIVEN PASSAGE OF THE LEAD WAVE...UVV WAS WEAKENING ACROSS THE DRYLINE SITUATED FROM CNTRL KS SWWD TO ALONG THE OK/PNHDL TX BORDER AT 18Z. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT HEATING AND DRYLINE CIRCULATION WILL BE NEEDED FOR TSTM INITIATION. INSOLATION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED OWING TO A STANDING WAVE CI CANOPY. STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE OVER SWRN-CNTRL OK AWAY FROM THE DRYLINE. THERE ARE CONFLICTING MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION. BEST AGREEMENT IS FOR TSTMS TO INITIATE BY EARLY EVE ACROSS SCNTRL-ERN KS WHERE CINH WILL WEAKEN THE FASTEST AND WHERE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE STILL OCCURRING. BUT... WRF-NMM AND NAM-PARALLEL RUNS SUGGEST TSTMS WILL DEVELOP FARTHER S IN OK 03-06Z IN ADDITION TO THE EARLIER TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER SCNTRL KS. GIVEN THAT THE NEXT LOW-AMPLITUDE SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSE IS NOT PROGD TO ARRIVE IN THE TX PNHDL UNTIL AFTER 06Z...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE TSTM THREAT INTO WRN OK WILL REMAIN ISOLD AT BEST. IT IS ALSO REASONABLE TO EXPECT TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN SCNTRL KS THIS EVE AND EXPAND NEWD INTO PARTS OF WRN MO OVERNIGHT AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE APPROACHES. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL ANYWHERE STORMS FORM ACROSS KS/OK. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLD TORNADO ACROSS SCNTRL KS OR EXTREME NCNTRL OK THIS EVENING...BUT LESS-THAN IDEAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROFILES WOULD ARGUE AGAINST TORNADOES. MOREOVER...TSTMS SHOULD BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME OVERNIGHT MAINTAINING A HAIL THREAT. ..RACY.. 03/07/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 8 00:56:32 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 07 Mar 2006 19:56:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060308005901.7F7C4D45E5@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080057 SWODY1 SPC AC 080055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN KS...WRN MO AND NERN OK... ...KS/MO... EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING OBSERVED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A SECONDARY...WEAKER IMPULSE ALSO APPEARS TO BE PRESENT OVER CNTRL NM...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEWD OVERNIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WAS ORGANIZING OVER ERN CO WITH INVERTED FRONT EXTENDING NEWD TO SECONDARY SURFACE LOW OVER ERN SD. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED SEWD THROUGH ERN NEB AND THEN EWD THROUGH CNTRL MO...WHILE DRYLINE STRETCHED FROM CNTRL KS TO FAR WRN OK INTO SWRN TX. IT APPEARS THAT SEVERAL CONTRIBUTING FACTORS HAVE INHIBITED SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG OK/KS DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE FACTORS INCLUDE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL RIDGING...CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH-CLOUDINESS AND THE RESULTANT MAINTENENCE OF A STRONG CAP ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS /REFERENCE 08/00Z OUN/FWD SOUNDINGS/. THIS CAP WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY WITH NEWD EXTENT INTO NERN KS WHERE TOP SOUNDING INDICATED LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH A MUCAPE OF 1000 J/KG FOR A PARCEL BASED AROUND 850 MB. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MAINLY ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BETWEEN 03-06Z OVER ERN KS INTO WRN MO...PERHAPS AS SWLY LLJ RE-FOCUSES WWD OVER OK/KS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING WEAKER DISTURBANCE LIFTING NEWD OUT OF NM. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OBSERVED ON REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ...SWRN TX... TSTM WHICH DEVELOPED OVER PECOS COUNTY EARLIER HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR...LIKELY AS IT MOVED E OF THE LOCAL AREA THAT SUPPORTED IT/S INITIATION. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF RATHER STEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE 08/00Z DRT SOUNDING SHOWED A CONSIDERABLE CAP AROUND 780 MB...WHICH IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS STORM/S DEMISE. NO ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED OWING TO THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THEREFORE...NO THUNDER PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED. ..MEAD.. 03/08/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 8 05:54:25 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2006 00:54:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060308055912.3F65AD4A6C@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080554 SWODY1 SPC AC 080552 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MO/OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... DYNAMIC...MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING SEWD INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE SEWD TODAY THROUGH AZ/NM AND NRN MEXICO...PRIOR TO SHIFTING MORE EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT. ACCOMPANYING MID AND HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS WILL GRADUALLY PROPAGATE THROUGH THE TROUGH BASE INTO NRN/CNTRL TX WITH STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOPING FROM NM INTO CNTRL TX TONIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL KS WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT...EVENTUALLY REACHING NRN IL BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE OK/TX PNHDLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO INTENSE HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING OVER NM. THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY EWD OR ESEWD ACROSS OK OVERNIGHT AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO TX. SURFACE DRYLINE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED TODAY FROM INTERSECTION WITH COLD OR STATIONARY FRONT OVER CNTRL KS SWD THROUGH WRN OK INTO W-CNTRL TX. ...KS/MO/IL... CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER PORTIONS OF ERN KS...MO INTO IL WITHIN ZONE OF ENHANCED WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURRING ON NOSE OF 45-55 KT SWLY LLJ. THIS BRANCH OF THE LLJ WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE NEWD TODAY IN ADVANCE OF WEAK IMPULSE /NOW OVER THE TX PNHDL/...MAINTAINING A BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INVOF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEWD ALONG WARM FRONT OVER NERN KS INTO NWRN MO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AREA INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS GIVEN POTENTIAL MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ AND 50-60 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MOREOVER...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE LOCALLY AUGMENTED AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE LOW...SUGGESTING A THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER. WITH TIME...EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP SWD/SWWD ALONG FRONT TO IT/S INTERSECTION WITH DRYLINE OVER S-CNTRL KS. HERE TOO...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MCS OR LARGE STORM CLUSTERS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH A DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT SPREADING EWD INTO MO. ...OK/TX/AR/LA... 08/00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT ONLY A MODESTLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS /I.E. MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 10-11 G/KG/ EXISTS FROM THE TX COAST INTO OK GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES OBSERVED AT THE BASE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 1500 J/KG/...THIS CAP WILL LIKELY INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. RAPID CHANGES IN THE VERTICAL STRATIFICATION OF THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ARE FORECAST ALONG DRYLINE AFTER 09/00Z OWING TO STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING/HEIGHT FALLS WHICH WILL AID IN CAP REMOVAL AND FURTHER STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS THIS OCCURS...STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BETWEEN 09/00-03Z ALONG OR JUST TO THE W OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN OK AND N TX. GIVEN THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN AMBIENT WIND FIELDS...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY MERGE INTO CLUSTERS OR A MCS AS THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN OK INTO AR AND N-CNTRL AND NERN TX. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS N-CNTRL INTO SERN OK/NERN TX OVERNIGHT INDICATE VERY STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES DEVELOPING WITHIN INSTABILITY AXIS AHEAD OF ANTICIPATED ONGOING TSTMS. IF STORMS CAN REMAIN SURFACE-BASED AND SOMEWHAT DISCRETE...A DISTINCT...NOCTURNAL TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP FROM SERN OK/NERN TX TOWARD THE ARKLATEX LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SERN CO... INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS /WEAK OROGRAPHIC FORCING/ WITHIN IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...SOME THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 03/08/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 8 13:05:54 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2006 08:05:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060308130826.08CECD42E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081305 SWODY1 SPC AC 081304 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0704 AM CST WED MAR 08 2006 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR MO VLY INTO THE SRN PLNS AND OZARKS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPR TROUGH NOW OVER THE LWR CO VLY APPEARS TO HAVE NEARLY REACHED MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE. IT SHOULD TURN MORE E/SE ACROSS AZ/NM TODAY BEFORE ENTERING THE SRN PLNS EARLY THURSDAY. WHILE THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE TROUGH WILL REACH THE SRN PLNS LATE TONIGHT/ EARLY THURSDAY...EWD PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM AND THERMAL GRADIENT AHEAD OF IT SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST MODEST MID LEVEL COOLING WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT KS/OK AND WRN/NRN TX BY AFTERNOON. AT LWR LVLS...LOW NOW OVER CNTRL KS SHOULD MOVE NE TO NEAR KCHI BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER SE CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPR TROUGH. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY E/SE ACROSS OK TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE LOW...EXPECT DRY LINE TO MIX WELL E ACROSS SRN KS AND INTO CNTRL OK TODAY... BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR KCNU TO KOKC TO KSPS THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SE INTO CNTRL OK AND NW TX THURSDAY MORNING. ...MO/IL/IND... CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE ON NOSE OF 45-55 KT SWLY LLJ. THIS JET SHOULD DEVELOP ENEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...AHEAD OF WEAK IMPULSE NOW OVER CNTRL KS. ASSOCIATED TONGUE OF STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN THE STRONGER CELLS. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY MO/SRN IA AND IL TODAY...AND IND/SRN OH EARLY THURSDAY. ...EXTREME NE KS/NRN MO SWWD INTO OK/NW AR AND NRN TX... MOISTURE AVAILABILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN COMPARATIVELY MODEST IN WARM SECTOR N OF THE RED RIVER THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD..WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING IN THE UPR 50S IN ERN KS/WRN MO...AND THE LOW 60S IN SE OK. NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING... WEAK MID LVL COOLING...AND CONVERGENCE INVOF KS SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CAP AND SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NW MO OR EXTREME NE KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM BY EARLY EVENING SWD ALONG TRAILING DRY LINE/TROUGH INTO SE KS/CNTRL OK AND POSSIBLY NW TX. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J PER KG/ AND 50-60 KT DEEP SHEAR. ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY ENHANCE TORNADO THREAT INVOF KS/MO SURFACE WAVE. STRENGTH OF DEEP SHEAR MAY ALSO SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF STORM DEVELOPMENT IN OK/NW TX. BACKING MID LVL FLOW AND RAPID INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE QUASILINEAR CLUSTERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY OVER CNTRL/SRN MO...ERN OK AND NW AR. WITH DEEP LAYER SWLY SHEAR INCREASING TO AOA 60 KTS...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS LIKELY WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS...HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. FARTHER S...A LOW PROBABILITY WILL EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FROM SE MO/NE AR SWWD INTO NE TX...IN ZONE OF INCREASING LOW LVL CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. VERY STRONG /60 KT/ DEEP SWLY SHEAR AND PRESENCE OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER N /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/ SUGGEST A THREAT FOR EARLY MORNING TORNADOES...IF STORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP IN MODERATELY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. IF THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SUCH DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MORE CERTAIN LATER TODAY...PARTS OF ERN OK/AR AND PERHAPS NE TX MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS. ...SE CO/SW KS/OK-TX PNHDL RGN... MID LVL COOLING/FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH E/NELY LOW LVL WINDS/WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IN IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS OVER SRN PARTS OF THE CNTRL HI PLNS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP SE INTO WRN/CNTRL OK AND NW TX THURSDAY MORNING. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 03/08/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 8 16:26:15 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2006 11:26:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060308162844.91F32D4A5A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081626 SWODY1 SPC AC 081624 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1024 AM CST WED MAR 08 2006 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF ERN OK/WRN AR/NERN TX AND NWRN LA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS NEWD INTO MID MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AS A POTENT S/WV TROUGH AND STRONG JET MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES THIS AM OUT INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TONIGHT. CURRENTLY SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KS WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING WSWWD INTO SRN CO. DRY LINE FROM SURFACE LOW TRAILS SWWD INTO WRN OK AND SWRN TX. SRN ROCKIES TROUGH ENTERS PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PROVIDING INCREASING LARGE SCALE UPWARD MOTION AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS. CURRENT SURFACE LOW KS CONTINUES ENEWD ALONG STALLED FRONTAL ZONE THRU MID MS VALLEY WHILE A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT ACROSS SRN OK IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF STRONG TROUGH. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD E OF DRY LINE THRU SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VALLEY NWD TO MID MS VALLEY. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD ACROSS WARM SECTOR WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AS WELL AS PROVIDING A CAP ON SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY. COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO AS CURRENT ACTIVE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MID MS VALLEY WILL STEADILY EVOLVE INTO MORE SURFACE BASED STORMS ALONG AND JUST S OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000 J/KG OR GREATER FROM MO SWWD INTO NRN TX DURING AFTERNOON ALONG WITH FAVORABLY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES FOR ROTATING STORMS...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS CAP WEAKENS...PARTICULARLY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND VICINITY DRY LINE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE GREATEST POTENTIAL INITIALLY...HOWEVER GIVEN SHEAR ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AS VERY POTENT LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS/KINEMATICS SET UP AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SRN OK. WITH LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO 60 PLUS KTS ERN TX INTO AR...80-100KT MID LEVEL JET ROTATING EWD ACROSS TX...SHEAR PROFILES BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTENSE SQUALL LINE PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z FROM ERN OK INTO N TX. SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INTENSE WIND PROFILES AND AVAILABILITY OF RICH GULF AIR MASS. ADDITIONALLY A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE WITH POTENTIAL OF STRONG TORNADOES. ERN PORTIONS OF SRN PLAINS HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO MDT RISK...PRIMARILY FOR THE ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR LATER TONIGHT AND INTO DAY 2. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 03/08/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 8 20:04:53 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2006 15:04:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060308200718.29FA0D4565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 082002 SWODY1 SPC AC 082001 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0201 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...OZARKS AND MID MS VALLEY... ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY... A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL DEEPEN AND AMPLIFY...MOVING EWD INTO THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A LEAD SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WEST TX WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES ACROSS OK AND ERN KS AHEAD OF A DRYLINE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. PROFILERS FROM CNTRL OK TO ERN KS CURRENTLY SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 60 TO 70 KT WHICH COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REMAIN DISCREET HAVING A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. THE BAND OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...RESULTING IN RAPID INITIATION OF STORMS AS THE DRYLINE SWEEPS EWD INTO ERN OK...NE TX AND WRN AR. SEVERE EVENT COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME WITH A LINEAR MCS DEVELOPING. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS MO AND IL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE IN THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE LIKELY THREATS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST ESPECIALLY NEAR OR AHEAD OF A SFC LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN MO AND IL OVERNIGHT. ...CO/NE NM/OK PANHANDLE... A FEW STORMS MAY INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN CO AND NE NM LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG THE AXIS OF A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL. THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE AREA. ...PACIFIC NW COAST... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL AMPLIFY AND APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL FORECASTS STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL AREAS. ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL SEVERE STORM MAY DEVELOP...COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK AREA ATTM. ..BROYLES.. 03/08/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 00:58:35 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2006 19:58:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060309010100.F1B7FD4A79@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090058 SWODY1 SPC AC 090057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN TX...ERN/SRN OK EXTREME SERN KS/NWRN AR AND SWRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY... ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS NEWD INTO MID MS VALLEY... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ERN CO INTO SRN NM AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE ESEWD INTO WRN OK/TX BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EJECTING NEWD OUT OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS WRN TX THIS EVENING. A 90-100 KT MID LEVEL JET... ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...IS PROGGED TO MOVE FROM SWRN TX INTO ERN OK OVERNIGHT. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER SWRN TX ARE LIKELY REFLECTIVE OF THE STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADING INTO THAT REGION. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED FROM NRN TX NEWD INTO IA AND THESE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN NUMBER AND STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET MAX EJECT NEWD. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 55-75 KT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AFTER O3Z ACROSS NRN TX/ERN OK/SERN KS AND MO AS LARGE SCALE LIFTING STRENGTHENS AS A DRYLINE/ COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM ERN KS SWWD INTO WRN TX... BEGINS MOVING EWD. STRONG VEERING WINDS IN THE LOWER 1 TO 3 KM WOULD SUPPORT TORNADOES IN CELLULAR STORMS...AND ONE OR TWO OF THE TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN OK AND INTO EXTREME NWRN AR AND SWRN MO. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE FORCING BECOMES MORE LINEAR LATER TONIGHT AS THE WINDS ALOFT BACK AND BECOME MORE SLY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN STORMS EVOLVING INTO A LINE AND THEN MOVING RAPIDLY ENEWD AS A LINEAR MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY AFTER 06Z. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED IN THE ERN HALF OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA. FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS SERN IA AND IL...50-60 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET LIFTING NWD OVER A WARM FRONT IN NRN MO/SRN IL MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL. ..IMY.. 03/09/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 06:00:48 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 01:00:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060309060316.B5DBAD4A79@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090600 SWODY1 SPC AC 090559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA...SRN AR...MS..WRN TN...WRN KY AND NWRN AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THAT SURROUNDS THE MODERATE RISK FROM ERN TX NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...SWD INTO AL AND GA... SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE TODAY AND THIS EVENING ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE EJECTED FROM WRN TX NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AS A 100-110 KT MID LEVEL JET MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...RESULTING IN THE SYSTEM TO BECOME STRONGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED. ...LOWER AND MID MS/TN VALLEY REGION... NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS TX/OK WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY NEWD INTO AR/MO/ERN OK BY MORNING. FAVORABLE STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT ONGOING SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE STORMS DEVELOP/SHIFT NEWD THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. STRONGER CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN TX AS MID LEVEL SPEED MAX AND STRONG THERMAL TROUGH PUNCH RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY...PLUS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO LIFT NEGATIVELY TILTED INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY SHOULD RESULT IN STORMS TO INTENSIFY ACROSS LA BY MIDDAY AND THEN SPREAD RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS MS/AR/AL/TN/SERN MO/WRN KY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE BACKING WINDS ALOFT AND PRONOUNCED THERMAL TROUGH...ESPECIALLY FROM AR/NRN MS NEWD SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS IN THIS AREA SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A FAST MOVING LINE. THE EXTREMELY STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS...70 KT AT 850 MB AND 110 KT AT 500 MB...AND THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. AS THE SRN END OF THE TROUGH LIFTS NEWD FROM LA NEWD ACROSS MS AND INTO NWRN AL...MORE CELLULAR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IF THE STORMS CAN REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED...INTENSE LOW/DEEP LEVEL SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT TORNADOES...SOME WHICH MAY BE QUITE STRONG. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE THE GREATEST FROM SERN AR/LA NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF MS AND NWRN AL BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z. AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT...THE STRONGER FORCING WILL BECOME MORE REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. STORMS WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT WILL SPREAD EWD INTO INTO ERN KY SWD INTO WRN GA...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. ..IMY.. 03/09/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 16:36:00 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 11:36:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060309163837.BAC0CD46A3@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091636 SWODY1 SPC AC 091635 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1035 AM CST THU MAR 09 2006 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... MORNING MODELS AND ONGOING OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO ONGOING OUTLOOK/SCENARIO ATTM. STRONG MID/UPPER SYSTEM EJECTING AS A FAST-MOVING...NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL JET MAX WITH H5 WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 KT WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE LOWER/MID MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. ...LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY INTO LOWER/MID MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS... ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING WITH DRY SLOT ALREADY SPREADING THROUGH EASTERN TX AND WESTERN AR. SUFFICIENT MOMENTUM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEHIND THUNDERSTORM LINES...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF SYSTEM...AND STRONG SHEAR WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE MULTIPLE LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINES. SHEAR IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH AREA VWP/S AND PROFILERS INDICATING 0-1/0-2 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 AND SFC-6 KM SHEAR EXCEEDING 80 KT. LIMITING FACTOR ATTM IS LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF LINE. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW DISCRETE CELLS AND A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES AHEAD AND/OR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE...HOWEVER DONT EXPECT THIS TO BE WIDESPREAD. STRONG FORCING AND STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST MULTIPLE LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE DUE TO UPPER LEVEL MOMENTUM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH QUICK MOVING STORMS. AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT...THE STRONGER FORCING WILL BECOME MORE REMOVED FROM THE INSTABILITY. STORMS WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT WILL SPREAD EWD INTO ERN KY SWD INTO WRN GA...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. ...LOWER OH/MID MS RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY MORNING STORMS CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING COOL BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WRN KY INTO CENTRAL AR. HOWEVER AS LOW CENTER DEEPENS ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...INSTABILITY AND SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES AS SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES. ..AFWA.. 03/09/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 17:12:37 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 12:12:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060309171651.38BBDD4977@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091710 SWODY1 SPC AC 091635 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1035 AM CST THU MAR 09 2006 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... MORNING MODELS AND ONGOING OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO ONGOING OUTLOOK/SCENARIO ATTM. STRONG MID/UPPER SYSTEM EJECTING AS A FAST-MOVING...NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL JET MAX WITH H5 WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 KT WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE LOWER/MID MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. ...LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY INTO LOWER/MID MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS... ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING WITH DRY SLOT ALREADY SPREADING THROUGH EASTERN TX AND WESTERN AR. SUFFICIENT MOMENTUM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEHIND THUNDERSTORM LINES...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF SYSTEM...AND STRONG SHEAR WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE MULTIPLE LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINES. SHEAR IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH AREA VWP/S AND PROFILERS INDICATING 0-1/0-2 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 AND SFC-6 KM SHEAR EXCEEDING 80 KT. LIMITING FACTOR ATTM IS LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF LINE. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW DISCRETE CELLS AND A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES AHEAD AND/OR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE...HOWEVER DONT EXPECT THIS TO BE WIDESPREAD. STRONG FORCING AND STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST MULTIPLE LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE DUE TO UPPER LEVEL MOMENTUM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH QUICK MOVING STORMS. AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT...THE STRONGER FORCING WILL BECOME MORE REMOVED FROM THE INSTABILITY. STORMS WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT WILL SPREAD EWD INTO ERN KY SWD INTO WRN GA...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. ...LOWER OH/MID MS RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY MORNING STORMS CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING COOL BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WRN KY INTO CENTRAL AR. HOWEVER AS LOW CENTER DEEPENS ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...INSTABILITY AND SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES AS SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES. ..AFWA.. 03/09/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 20:07:16 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 15:07:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060309201050.67C33D4939@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 092007 SWODY1 SPC AC 092006 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 0206 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LWR/MID MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTL GULF COAST NORTH INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY... ...LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY INTO LOWER/MID MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS... EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE ONGOING AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MDT RISK WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST. A WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS POSITIONED JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE...AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT S/W TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS GOING INTO THE EVENING. DESPITE VERY FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES...EVIDENT BY LARGE LOW LVL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE/0-1KM SRH GRTR THAN 300 M2 S-2/AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 60 KTS...THE TORNADO THREAT HAS BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR DUE TO THE LINEAR MODE OF CONVECTION OVER THE MDT RISK. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS LEWP/BOWING STRUCTURES WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK OF TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...MORE DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER SOUTHER/EASTERN LA DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND THESE STORMS MAY POSE A TORNADO RISK AS WELL. OTHERWISE...STRONG LOW/MID LVL WIND FIELDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN ENHANCED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...S/W TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY EJECT TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN SVR WX THREAT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ...EASTERN OK/NORTHERN AR/SOUTHERN MO... SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S AND STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD MID LVL AIRMASS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOP CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT AN ORGANIZED SVR RISK IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELLS OVER THIS REGION. ..AFWA.. 03/09/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 10 01:00:23 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 20:00:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060310010300.6C0F9D4964@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100100 SWODY1 SPC AC 100058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS SWD INTO AL/GA... ...TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS SWD INTO AL AND GA... AT 0030Z...SQUALL LINE WAS MOVING EWD AT 50-55 KT THROUGH KY/ERN TN AND ERN AL. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY PER EVENING SOUNDINGS... STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW LOCATED IN SRN MO...PLUS EXTREMELY INTENSE WIND FIELDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE ALONG THE FAST MOVING LINE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER... THE WIND THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND THE FORCED LINE MOVES INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. UNDER THE MO UPPER LOW...500 MB TEMPERATURES FROM -20C TO 22C AND DAYTIME HEATING PROVIDED FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG LOW LEVEL VEERING WIND PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH SEVERE HAIL...WIND AND A TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS SERN MO/WRN KY NWRN TN/SRN IL THIS EVENING... REFERENCE WW 54. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG FORCING...ACCOMPANYING PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MAINTENANCE OF A MOIST BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A WIND THREAT...AND POSSIBLY A SMALL TORNADO THREAT...AS FAR NORTHEAST AS SWRN OH BY LATE TONIGHT. ..IMY.. 03/10/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 10 16:44:22 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 10 Mar 2006 11:44:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060310164640.1CA63D4977@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101644 SWODY1 SPC AC 101642 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1042 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2006 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA... ONGOING BAND OF TSTMS CONTINUES AT MIDDAY WITHIN A SOUTHWEST- NORTHEAST ORIENTED AXIS...ALONG EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FROM SOUTH/EAST OF MOBILE AL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL GA. WHILE SOME ISOLD SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST WITH THESE ONGOING TSTMS...PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ACTIVITY WITHIN PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION/GULF MOISTURE INFLUX REGIME FROM SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AL WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT/THREAT WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAREST THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON...NAMELY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF AL/MS AND ERN LA...WITH DEVELOPMENT NORTHWARD ACROSS REMAINDER OF AL/MS AND AR INTO TONIGHT. KINEMATICS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ISOLD TORNADOES POSSIBLE GIVEN THE RATHER MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ...OZARKS AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY... ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS EVENING INVOF THE OZARKS REGION...AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY VIA BROAD 50 KT SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CORES. ..GUYER/THOMPSON.. 03/10/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 10 20:06:27 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 10 Mar 2006 15:06:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060310200851.B2125D45A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 102006 SWODY1 SPC AC 102005 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU... ...OZARKS/MID MS VALLEY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS REGION WITH A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT OVER WCNTRL TX. MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F ARE ADVECTING NWD ACROSS ECNTRL TX AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE MOISTURE MOVES INTO NE TX AND SE OK THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NE TX THIS EVENING SHOW MUCAPE VALUES INCREASING INTO THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KT. THIS WOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE AND TRACK NEWD ACROSS THE REGION AS THE NEW MODEL RUNS SUGGEST. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS. THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS AN MCS DEVELOPS AND EXPANDS NEWD. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF HAIL REPORTS APPEAR MOST LIKELY ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM FORT WORTH TX ACROSS CNTRL AR INTO FAR SE MO. ...TN VALLEY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS EAST TX. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS LA...MS AND AL TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND MOISTURE ADVECTS NWD ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 03Z TO 06Z SHOW MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG IN CNTRL MS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 60 KT. THIS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH DISCRETE STORMS ALTHOUGH MULTICELLS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY AS AN MCS DEVELOPS AND MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE MCS MOVES NEWD AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN THE 07Z TO 09Z TIMEFRAME. ...CA COAST/SACRAMENTO VALLEY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST COAST. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SPREADING SEWD ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...STEEP LAPSE MID LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT MAY RESULT IN A FEW HAIL STORMS BEFORE CONVECTION WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 03/10/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 01:01:30 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 10 Mar 2006 20:01:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060311010348.DB75CD4964@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110101 SWODY1 SPC AC 110059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SERN OK AND NERN TX INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY... ...LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY THROUGH WRN TN VALLEY... A WARM FRONT MARKED BY A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT EXTENDS FROM S CNTRL AL WWD THROUGH CNTRL MS...NRN LA AND INTO NERN TX WHERE IT INTERSECTS A DRYLINE. S OF THE WARM FRONT DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL ADVECT NWD TONIGHT WITH MOST PRONOUNCED THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECTED INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN TO 50+ KT. A FEW STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE ZONE OF THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG MOISTURE GRADIENT FROM S CNTRL MS EWD INTO W CNTRL AL. HOWEVER...EXPECT STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP FARTHER W INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...AND THETA-E ADVECTION AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...NERN TX AND SERN OK... AN ISOLATED STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE RED RIVER ALONG THE TX/OK BORDER JUST NE OF GAINSVILLE. THIS STORM HAS DEVELOPED WHERE MIXING HAS WEAKENED THE CAP ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S. STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THIS AREA WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OR SO WITH A THREAT OF PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO DECOUPLE AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES IT MAY BECOME DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN SURFACE BASED STORMS. ..DIAL.. 03/11/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 05:56:54 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 00:56:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060311055909.3CC53D4565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110557 SWODY1 SPC AC 110555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH PARTS OF THE MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN THIRD. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE NEWD ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH...PRIMARILY THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY THIS PERIOD. ONE SUCH IMPULSE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO MN SATURDAY. COLD FRONT TO SHIFT SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID/UPPER MS VALLEY IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. THE DRYLINE WILL PERSIST FROM CNTRL TX NWD THROUGH E CNTRL OK AND INTO SERN KS WHERE IT WILL INTERSECT WITH THE SEWD ADVANCING FRONT. ...ERN PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES AREAS... STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY SATURDAY RESULTING IN RAPID ADVECTION OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY THIS PERIOD. ONE BRANCH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT NWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY WITH SOME THREAT FOR HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS...DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECT NWD UNDERNEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES. MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY. STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP ALONG SEWD ADVANCING FRONT AS WELL AS ALONG DRYLINE FROM PARTS OF IA SWWD INTO ERN OK AND NERN TX. OTHER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AS CAP WEAKENS. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES WITH VERY LARGE HAIL LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE LOW JET STRENGTHENS AND ENHANCES LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. TORNADO THREAT COULD ALSO BE ENHANCED BY ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY LEFT OVER FROM MORNING STORMS. ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS IT ADVANCES EWD WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE OH VALLEY. PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...CNTRL THROUGH SRN CA... COLD AIR ALOFT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH SRN CA THROUGH SATURDAY UNDERNEATH LARGE UPPER TROUGH. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE...AND AS AFTERNOON HEATING COMMENCES...MUCAPES TO 500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH SATURDAY. SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST OVER SRN CA ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH FOR A THREAT OF LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..DIAL/GRAMS.. 03/11/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 12:28:06 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 07:28:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060311123021.E5B18D4712@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111228 SWODY1 SPC AC 111226 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0626 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FAR ERN OK/NERN TX ACROSS MUCH OF AR... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN SRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY EWD INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN CA... ...ERN SRN PLAINS/MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE U.S. WILL REMAIN DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AHEAD OF WHICH A LARGE SWATH OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SWLY WINDS HAS OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL U.S.. SEVERAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT NEWD AWAY FROM THIS FEATURE AND ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS BROAD WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THESE FEATURES WELL THE PAST DAY OR SO...BUT THESE COULD IMPACT HOW SEVERE THREAT UNFOLDS TODAY. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE HAS ENHANCED ONGOING STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER THE MID SOUTH INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LIFTING NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF KY/IND/OH THROUGH THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN COMPLICATED BY EARLIER CONVECTION... THOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MID MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME BETTER FOCUSED ESEWD FROM A LOW CENTER NEAR THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY MAY DELAY OR RE-FOCUS THIS FEATURE FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IL/SRN IA. ANOTHER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN AR INTO SWRN MO THROUGH THE DAY. THOUGH THESE FEATURES MAY INHIBIT ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN NORTH OF OZARKS/MID MS RIVER VALLEY...RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH OVER ERN OK INTO THE MID SOUTH WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 65F. REGARDLESS...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR MODEST INSTABILITY AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MID WEST INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY LATER TODAY. CAPPING MAY BE PROBLEMATIC OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY UNDER A RELATIVELY STRONG ELEVATED-MIXED LAYER NOW IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF HEATING AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 18Z-21Z ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHEAR WILL REMAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS AND LINES AS ACTIVITY INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SEVERE THREAT SPREADING EWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE MOST INTENSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REMAIN CONFINED TO GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FROM FAR ERN/SERN OK AND POSSIBLY NERN TX ACROSS AR...AND WE HAVE PLACED GREATEST SEVERE RISK AND HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACCORDINGLY. HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD A DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF CAPE AND SHEAR /MLCAPE GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KT/...WHICH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT TORNADIC SUPERCELLS SHOULD CAP BREAK AS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DISCRETE WITH SUBSEQUENT ENHANCED RISK OF TORNADOES GIVEN FORECAST 200+ M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS. ...SRN CA... VERY COLD STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES EXPECTED NEAR THE SRN CA COAST. STORMS PRODUCED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO ON FRIDAY. INSTABILITY MAY BE GREATER TODAY...AND THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD WITH STRONGER CORES PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS/TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ..EVANS/GRAMS.. 03/11/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 16:24:04 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 11:24:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060311162616.D3D99D4712@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111624 SWODY1 SPC AC 111622 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1022 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN OK...MUCH OF AR NEWD INTO SRN/ERN MO SRN IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO NRN MS VALLEY AND WRN OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS COASTAL AREAS OF SRN CA... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE COLD TROUGH OVER WRN U.S. WITH A VERY STRONG POLAR JET EXTENDING AROUND TROUGH FROM SRN CA ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES. EMBEDDED FAST MOVING S/WV TROUGHS MOVING ALONG THE JET WITH ONE EXITING NEWD THRU NRN MS VALLEY...ANOTHER WEAKER IMPULSE SRN HIGH PLAINS WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AMPLIFIES FURTHER OVER SWRN U.S. AT THE SURFACE...LOW IN MN MOVES NEWD INTO WRN ONTARIO WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT THRU ERN KS THEN WSWWD INTO TX PANHANDLE. FRONT MOVES INTO WRN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WHILE WRN PORTION STALLS AS PRESSURES FALL AGAIN LEE OF CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF MAJOR WRN TROUGH. DRY LINE INITIALLY ERN KS CENTRAL OK/NRN TX WILL MIX A LITTLE E BY THIS AFTERNOON. RICH GULF AIR MASS HAS BEEN SURGING NWD OVERNIGHT THRU ERN SRN PLAINS/LWR/MID MS VALLEY AND COMBINED WITH WARM ADVECTION ON STRONG LLJ...PRODUCED LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER OH VALLEY. ...CENTRAL U.S... WITH LEAD TROUGH MOVING NEWD INTO SRN CANADA...NO STRONG UPPER IMPULSE TO KEY ON TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL BE RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING. HOWEVER THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE VIGOROUS POLAR JET DOES SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE AREA E OF COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE BEGINNING BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH MID/UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS SURGING NWD INTO MID MS/LWR OH VALLEYS BY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 7 C/KM PLUS LAPSE RATES...MLCAPES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1500 J/KG MID MS VALLEY TO ABOVE 2000 J/KG AR SWD THRU LOWER MS VALLEY/ERN SRN PLAINS. THE WEAK IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF TX COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING AND GENERALLY WEAK CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS STORM INITIATION WILL OCCUR VICINITY COLD FRONT AND DOWN DRY LINE FROM MO INTO ERN OK BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 50KT WITH LOW LEVEL ENHANCED SHEAR PARTICULARLY VICINITY THE SUBTLE WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIE ACROSS MID MS VALLEY. WHILE VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE MOST COMMON THREAT...THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALSO SUPPORT TORNADOS WITH POSSIBLY OF A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES BY THIS EVENING. HAVE EXPANDED THE MDT RISK NWD INTO MID MS VALLEY BASED ON EXPECTED GREATER DESTABILIZATION INTO THIS AREA THAN ORIGINALLY FORECASTED. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AFTER DARK SPREADING EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY WITH SLOW LESSENING OF POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE STABILIZATION. ...SRN CA... THE VERY COLD STORM SYSTEM REMAINS ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES EXPECTED NEAR THE SRN CA COAST. SMALL SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY TO FORM OVER RELATIVELY WARMER OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE INSTABILITY IS THE GREATEST AND THEN MOVE ONSHORE...PARTICULARLY ORANGE/SAN DIEGO COUNTIES WHERE STORMS WILL HAVE GREATEST OVERWATER TRAJECTORY. IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...WATERSPOUTS AND BRIEF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE MINI-SUPERCELLS. ..HALES/GUYER.. 03/11/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 20:01:15 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 15:01:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060311200326.CEADBD4968@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 112000 SWODY1 SPC AC 111959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK...AR...MO AND IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN CA... ...MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN OK. THIS FEATURE WILL FOCUS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AS IT MOVES NEWD ACROSS ERN OK...NW AR AND MO LATE THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING STORM COVERAGE TO QUICKLY EXPAND. A LARGE MCS ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A BROAD WARM SECTOR EXISTS ACROSS THE ERN PART OF THE SRN PLAINS EXTENDING NNEWD ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU AND LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY. THE AIRMASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES GENERALLY RANGING FROM 50 KT ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU TO 70 KT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. THIS SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH STORMS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE. AS STORM COVERAGE EXPANDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BOW ECHOES AND MULTICELLS WILL BECOME LIKELY WITH LINEAR STORM CLUSTERS. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS MO...ERN OK...WRN AR AND NE TX WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE. A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE WILL EXPAND EWD AS A LARGE LINEAR MCS DEVELOPS THIS EVENING AND MOVES ACROSS MO...IL AND WRN AR. A FEW SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS AND/OR WITH THE STRONGER BOW ECHOES EMBEDDED IN OR AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE IN THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME EXTENDING NEWD FROM NRN AR ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN MO INTO THE ST. LOUIS AREA. THE BROAD WARM SECTOR SUGGESTS A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LINEAR MCS AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND NEARS THE MS RIVER LATE TONIGHT. ...CALIFORNIA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ORE COAST WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSEWD ALONG THE CA COAST. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH THE TROUGH WILL MAKE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY TO THE LA BASIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH 500 MB TEMPS FROM -30 TO -35 C. THIS SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS SRN CA WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 40 KT. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. ..BROYLES.. 03/11/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 01:08:18 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 20:08:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060312011030.AC2EED4932@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120108 SWODY1 SPC AC 120107 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0707 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR NRN AR/SRN-ERN MO/CENTRAL-SRN IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN OK NEWD TO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...ERN SRN PLAINS/MS RIVER VALLEY INTO OH RIVER VALLEY... VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WRN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS ONTARIO. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WAS ANALYZED AT 00Z TRAILING SWD THROUGH WI TO WRN IL AND THEN SWWD THROUGH MO TO ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. THE NRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...REACHING LOWER MI TO NWRN IND BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT EXTENDED WITH THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY. LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NEXT UPSTREAM SPEED MAX CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE SRN PLAINS. SSWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT TO 50 KT WILL ALLOW MOISTURE RETURN TO CONTINUE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS REACHING WRN OH BY 12Z SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG THE LLJ AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF ERN OK/CENTRAL-NRN AR/SRN MO NEWD TO WRN OH. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS STRONG OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SLIGHT/MODERATE RISK AREAS FOR SUPERCELLS. FAIRLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT... ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO REMAIN A THREAT. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER INTO IND/OH OVERNIGHT...STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG MOISTURE RETURN WITH LLJ NOSING INTO WRN OH LATE TONIGHT MAY ALLOW SEVERE STORMS TO REACH THIS REGION. ...SRN CA... OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING/ OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. ..PETERS.. 03/12/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 06:05:38 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 01:05:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060312060749.3BB7BD46A8@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120605 SWODY1 SPC AC 120603 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN MO INTO SERN IA AND PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL IL... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM AR NWD TO SRN IA AND EWD INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM NERN TX TO THE MID MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS AND SRN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MO AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS... STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH 100+ KT MID LEVEL JET... CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...WILL TRACK NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TODAY REACHING THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z MONDAY. 60-120 METER HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED WITH THIS TROUGH AS IT TRACKS NEWD WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG SSWLY LLJ /50+ KT/ FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER STRENGTHENING /60-80 KT/ OF THIS LLJ IS EXPECTED SECOND HALF OF FORECAST PERIOD AS IT VEERS TO SWLY FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY/ LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY EXTEND FROM LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TO OK...AND THEN WNWWD TO A SURFACE LOW OVER ERN CO. THIS BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT TODAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS TRANSLATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK EWD ACROSS NRN KS REACHING FAR NRN MO BY 00Z...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN PARTS OF IL/IN/OH. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SWD ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRY LINE ACROSS FAR ERN PARTS OF KS/OK INTO NERN TX ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD ZONE OF RICH MOISTURE RETURN...ALREADY UNDERWAY AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NWD TODAY FROM THE SERN PLAINS/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S SHOULD REACH AS FAR NORTH AS SERN MO/PARTS OF SRN IL...WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY EWD TO WRN PA. WHILE CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SRN PLAINS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY...MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY FREE OF CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION. WITH INSOLATION...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON NOSE OF RETURNING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG IN SURFACE WARM SECTOR. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY LIKELY BEING DISCRETE FROM THE SURFACE LOW SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE. STRONG LLJ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTING TORNADOES...SOME STRONG TO SIGNIFICANT ACROSS CENTRAL/ NRN MO INTO SERN IA AND WRN/CENTRAL IL. IN ADDITION...GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. INITIAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE THIS EVENING SPREADING EWD FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE OH RIVER VALLEY WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE GREATER THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO IND/WRN KY. ..PETERS/GRAMS.. 03/12/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 12:31:22 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 07:31:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060312123334.CC581D4249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121231 SWODY1 SPC AC 121229 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0629 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NRN/CENTRAL MO...FAR SERN IA INTO W-CENTRAL IL... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID SOUTH/OH RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE NATION/S MID SECTION... ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK STILL ANTICIPATED TODAY... OVERNIGHT MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SLOWING DOWN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. 06Z NAM AND GFS ALONG WITH 09Z RUC DEVELOP SURFACE LOW INTO NWRN KS THRU 21Z...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS NWRN MO EARLY THIS EVENING AND INTO SRN WI OVERNIGHT. THUS WILL SHIFT SEVERE THREAT AREAS A BIT WEST AS COMPARED TO EARLIER OUTLOOK. ELEVATED SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN KS THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG LLJ AXIS. LARGE HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE VERY LARGE...MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. THE EARLY DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE DRY LINE RAISES SOME CONCERN ABOUT QUALITY OF AIR MASS AVAILABLE FOR LATER SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...AIR MASS WILL RECOVER QUICKLY EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MO RIVER VALLEY BY 21Z...AS WRN END OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY NEAR THE OZARKS ERODES. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...SRN AND ERN MOST STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE BASED DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTO SERN KS/NERN OK ALONG DRY LINE. LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MORE THAN OPTIMAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HODOGRAPHS. THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACK TORNADOES WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS MUCH OF MO/POSSIBLY FAR SERN IA AND INTO WRN IL THROUGH THE EVENING. MOST LIKELY AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NWD AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW CENTER TO NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER BY THIS EVENING. HERE LOW LEVEL SSELY WINDS WILL BE MAXIMIZED...AND AN OUTBREAK OF DAMAGING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IS MORE LIKELY. AS STORMS CROSS THE WARM FRONT AND DEVELOP NWD WITHIN ENHANCED ASCENT INTO MORE OF IA...EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS ENHANCING THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT EWD ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF TORNADOES WHERE STORMS CAN ROOT NEAR THE SURFACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. FARTHER SOUTH INTO ERN OK AND NERN TX...INITIATION SHOULD BE DRIVEN BY HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF DRY LINE AS CAPPING HOLDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THOUGH THIS REGION WILL REMAIN REMOVED FROM GREATEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY VOLATILE COMBINATION OF 2000+ J/KG MLCAPES AND 50+ KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. IN ADDITION...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN DISCRETE. THEREFORE...TORNADIC SUPERCELL THREAT...INCLUDING THE THREAT OF LONG-LIVED TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL SPREAD ACROSS SRN MO/AR AND INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY WELL AFTER DARK. ..EVANS/GRAMS.. 03/12/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 17:13:35 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 12:13:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060312171543.E17C2D4968@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121710 SWODY1 SPC AC 121708 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS...MUCH OF MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST IOWA...AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS..ARKANSAS..MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA...ILLINOIS...INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL SHIFT ENEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY THIS PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD /H5 JET 100 TO 120 KT/. AT THE SURFACE...WELL-DEVELOPED LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ENEWD OUT OF ERN CO...WHILE WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDING W-E ACROSS SRN KS/SRN MO MOVES NWD WITH TIME. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH DRYLINE ALSO FORECAST TO ACT AS A CONVECTIVE FOCUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MIXES EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTO ERN OK/SERN KS. ...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS... VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES -- 8 TO 8.5 C/KM IN THE 850 TO 500 LAYER ACCORDING TO MORNING RAOBS -- WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS A MOIST WARM SECTOR /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S/ THIS PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL JET ADVECTING WARM/MOIST AIR ISENTROPICALLY NWD INTO NRN KS/NRN MO COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES HAS YIELDED A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED SUPERCELLS...WHICH HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. SUPERCELLS/SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST/SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ALONG AND N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK MOVES EWD INTO THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE...DRYLINE NOW LYING ACROSS WRN OK/WRN N TX WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT MIXES EWD ACROSS N TX/OK/SERN KS INTO DESTABILIZING AIRMASS /1500 TO 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/. THOUGH WARM SECTOR AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED ATTM...DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR BY 20-21Z. AS STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLYS SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR ABOVE 35 TO 50 KT SLY/SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET...VERY FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT INTENSE SUPERCELLS -- PARTICULARLY GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. ATTM...AREA OF MAXIMUM SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST FROM ERN KS ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN MO INTO SERN IA/W CENTRAL AND NWRN IL. WITH SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO SHIFT ENEWD WITH TIME ACROSS THIS REGION...BACKING LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR -- AND ELY WINDS N OF WARM FRONT -- WILL YIELD VERY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF VIOLENT/LONG-TRACK TORNADOES ALONG A BROAD AXIS ON EITHER SIDE OF WARM FRONT. ALONG WITH TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MORE SLY -- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW LESS INTENSE -- FURTHER S ACROSS ERN OK AND INTO N TX...SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS. GIVEN DEGREE OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONG/DAMAGING TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED...ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. EXPECT STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE...EVOLVING INTO ONE OR MORE SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS. ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT AS FAR E AS SRN LOWER MI/NRN OH. FURTHER S...DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS MO/ERN OK/NERN TX THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT SHOULD OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MO...WHERE SQUALL LINE SHOULD EVOLVE. ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR VERY STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS LIKELY. A MORE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EWD OVERNIGHT FROM ERN OK AND NERN TX ACROSS AR/NRN LA AND TO THE MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 03/12/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 20:07:09 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 15:07:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060312200916.99CD5D43A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 122006 SWODY1 SPC AC 122004 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS..MUCH OF MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST IOWA..AND WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA..FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS..ARKANSAS..SOUTHEAST MISSOURI..EASTERN/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS..INDIANA..AND NORTH CENTRAL/WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES... ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE US IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD AS VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAK WILL RESULT IN AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO NWRN KS THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING ENEWD ACROSS IA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WELL-DEFINED DRY LINE CURRENTLY EXTENDING NORTH/SOUTH FROM ERN KS ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO WRN PARTS OF CENTRAL WILL MIX EWD THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY A FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD TONIGHT REACHING A CENTRAL IL/CENTRAL AR/SOUTH CENTRAL TX LINE BY 13/12Z. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE LOW EWD ACROSS NRN KS AND NRN MO WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NWD IN ADVANCE OF THE...ALTHOUGH NWD PROGRESS MAY BE INITIALLY SLOWED BY COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER IA. ...ERN PART OF CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS ACROSS MID MS VALLEY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO OK SHORTLY. 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDINGS AT OUN AND SGF SHOW MOIST LAYER AROUND 1 KM DEEP WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700-750 MB...CONTRIBUTING TO UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. MINIMAL CAP ON THE SOUNDINGS INDICATES STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN RESPONSE TO INSOLATION AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ON THE DRY LINE. VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /50-60 KT OVER THE LOWEST 6 KM/ ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS. STRONG LOW LEVEL SRH OF 150-300 MS/S2 COUPLED WITH FAVORABLY LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...INCLUDING THREAT FOR SEVERAL LONG-TRACK STRONG-VIOLENT TORNADOES. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. FARTHER NORTH...CLOUDS ARE DIMINISHING ALONG THE WARM FRONT FROM NERN KS INTO WEST CENTRAL MO INDICATING HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ARE INCREASING OVER THIS AREA. THIS WILL SPREAD INTO NRN MO AND PERHAPS SRN IA/WEST CENTRAL IL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS ALONG/NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE FURTHER ENHANCING SHEAR/HELICITY MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP. ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL INTERACTING WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT /INCLUDING A FEW SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES/ IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FROM THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE BANDS OR CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS THEY MOVE EWD TOWARD THE MS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT MAY TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AFTER 06Z...THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY SUGGESTS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH BOWS OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS. ..WEISS.. 03/12/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 01:03:29 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 20:03:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060313010537.04251D4249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130103 SWODY1 SPC AC 130101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0701 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS...MUCH OF MISSOURI...EXTREME SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS...ARKANSAS...AND SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA FROM EASTERN KANSAS TO WESTERN INDIANA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA FROM THE SERN PLAINS NEWD TO THE SRN GREAT LAKES/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY... ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT... STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH ASSOCIATED 100+ KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX EXTENDING FROM ERN NM TO IA WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE NEWD OVERNIGHT TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS TROUGH/WITHIN EXIT REGION OF JET WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER MN BY 12Z MONDAY. SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL-NERN KS...IS PROGGED TO TRACK/REDEVELOP ENEWD AND STRENGTHEN SOME REACHING NRN IL TO SRN LAKE MI BY 12Z MONDAY. WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT NWD TOWARD THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW SPREADS EWD OVERTAKING THE DRY LINE WHICH EXTENDED SWD FROM ERN KS TO CENTRAL OK/TX. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NRN IL THROUGH ERN MO TO NERN TX BY 12Z MONDAY. STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS ACROSS FAR ERN KS/SERN IA THROUGH MUCH OF MO/IL AND INTO WRN IND. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY...INCLUDING A THREAT FOR SEVERAL LONG TRACK STRONG-VIOLENT TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE HIGH RISK AREA. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MODERATE/HIGH RISK AREAS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUING TO SPREAD ENEWD OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO AID IN THE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE THROUGH ERN OK TO NERN TX THIS EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING NEWD ACROSS AR/SRN MO TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT. EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES RANGING FROM 150-300 M2/S2 SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...A FEW STRONG. IN ADDITION...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE BANDS OR CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS THEY MOVE EWD TOWARD THE MS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT MAY TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AFTER 06Z...THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY SUGGESTS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH BOWS OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS. ..PETERS.. 03/13/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 06:15:47 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 01:15:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060313061843.69B34D43A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130614 SWODY1 SPC AC 130613 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF INDIANA...SRN LOWER MICHIGAN...KENTUCKY...OHIO...EXTREME NRN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WRN WEST VIRGINIA AND WRN PENNSYLVANIA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS/TN RIVER VALLEYS TO LOWER MI AND EWD TO MUCH OF NY/PA/NJ/DE/MD... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH WITH CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED TODAY AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO ERN ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 120-130 KT SWLY MID-UPPER LEVEL JET EXPECTED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER NRN IL REGION AT 12Z TODAY WILL UNDERGO STRONG DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NEWD ACROSS LOWER MI...AND THEN OCCLUDING OVER SWRN QUEBEC BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW ALONG COASTAL MA/ME AT END OF FORECAST PERIOD. ...OH RIVER VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES AND PART OF NORTHEAST STATES... COLD FRONT TRAILING SSWWD FROM THE NRN IL SURFACE LOW INTO SERN MO TO ERN TX WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEYS TODAY...REACHING WRN NEW ENGLAND SWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SWWD THROUGH SERN STATES TO NRN GULF BY 12Z TUESDAY. DESPITE SOME QUESTION WITH REGARDS TO SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY TODAY GIVEN EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS DUE TO ONGOING STORMS ATTM ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY SPREADING EWD...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN ONGOING LINE OF STORMS TO TRACK EWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES/OH RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...WITH SECONDARY LINE OF STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD AS NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF INITIAL ACTIVITY. 00Z WRF-NMM SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE STORMS WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY INTO SRN LOWER MI INTO THE AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...BUT THE GREATEST THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. 50-60 KT SWLY LLJ ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING INTO CENTRAL PA WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS EXISTS INTO PARTS OF NY AFTER DARK GIVEN SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. ...ERN PA TO PARTS OF DELMARVA... WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT NWD INTO UPSTATE NY TO OFF THE MA COAST BY 00Z...WITH A SECOND WARM FRONT/SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS NRN TO ERN PA TO NJ LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE INTERSECTION OF THIS LATTER BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN PA WITH A LEE TROUGH MAY SUPPORT A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...GIVEN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES ENHANCING THE TORNADO POTENTIAL. ...TN/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEYS INTO SRN APPALACHIANS... ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATED STRONGER MASS FIELDS WILL BE FOCUSED FARTHER TO THE NORTH...GREATER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED FROM TN SWD GIVEN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE TN/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEYS. ..PETERS/GRAMS.. 03/13/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 13:03:44 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 08:03:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060313130639.29AFED42D3@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131300 SWODY1 SPC AC 131258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND LWR GREAT LAKES REGION...FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A CONTINUING SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE NRN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... A BROAD COLD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF THE WESTERN STATES. THE POLAR TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM...AND PROGRESS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK HAS LIFTED OUT OF THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE... INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE NOW APPROACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER UPSTREAM IMPULSE ALREADY APPEARS TO LIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD...IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO EASTERN ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. WHILE FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION ...UNCERTAINTIES ARE ARISING WHICH COULD POSSIBLY LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. A RETURN FLOW OF 60F+ DEW POINTS IS OCCURRING OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH ANOTHER RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES. HOWEVER...COLD CORE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LAG WARM SECTOR THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FROM THE PLATEAU REGION IS BEING SUPPRESSED. FURTHER COMPLICATING MATTERS...CLOUD COVER FROM WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY RESTRICT INSOLATION. ALL OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT PEAK MIXED LAYER CAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG IN A CORRIDOR AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCING TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS JUST SOUTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES. THOUGH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG... STRENGTHENING FLOW/SHEAR IN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...JUST EAST OF 100+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK SHIFTING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ...GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY... THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LIKELY TO EXIST WITH ONGOING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE NOW ADVANCING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF A 50+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL PROVIDE LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTING CONTINUING RISK FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING...ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY/OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. BEST CHANCE FOR REDEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IS EXPECTED IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE CYCLONE...ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...WHERE ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. AS COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...FORCING COULD SUPPORT SOLIDIFYING CONVECTIVE LINE WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA. ...NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES... RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG HEATING IN THE LEE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHERE SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALREADY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WELL AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER SYSTEM. AIDED BY BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE ATLANTIC...STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GULF STATES... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT GREATER THAN AREAS FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...IN NARROW PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...OVERALL POTENTIAL SEEMS LIMITED AS LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS SLOW TO WEAKEN WITH MAIN UPPER FORCING SHIFTING TO NORTH OF REGION. ..KERR/GRAMS.. 03/13/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 16:41:59 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 11:41:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060313164453.69D16D4A76@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131642 SWODY1 SPC AC 131640 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN LOWER MI..ERN INDIANA..CENTRAL/ERN KY..OH..WRN NY..WRN PA..AND WRN WV.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK EAST OF THE MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY AND NEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND ERN NY.... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS LOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ENEWD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TODAY REACHING ERN ONTARIO TONIGHT...AS 120 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK ROTATES FROM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER SRN WI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AS IT LIFTS NEWD TOWARD ERN LAKE SUPR/NRN LAKE MI THIS AFTERNOON TO NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EWD REACHING WRN LAKE ERIE/N CENTRAL KY/NRN MS/SWRN LA LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEW ENGLAND/DELMARVA/UPSTATE SC/NWRN FL LINE BY 14/12Z...AS THE NRN PART OF THE FRONT SURGES EWD MORE RAPIDLY. A WARM FRONT FROM THE DELMARVA INTO WRN NY WILL MOVE SLOWLY NWD. ...GREAT LAKES INTO OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES... MORNING CONVECTION IS CONTINUING FROM NY INTO SRN LOWER MI AND SWWD INTO THE MID SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THIS HAS SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY...WHICH WILL LIKELY INHIBIT STRONG DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 55-60F RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH A NARROW AXIS OF LOW 60S DEW POINTS MAY BE LOCATED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODEST AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY GREATER INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP ALONG/IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE A NARROW ZONE OF CLEAR SKIES AND ENHANCED INSOLATION ARE LOCATED. WINDS ALOFT ARE VERY STRONG ACROSS THE REGION WITH 12Z RAOBS AND CURRENT VWPS INDICATING 50 KT FLOW AS LOW AS 500-1000 M AGL. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG WITH 50-60 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM WHICH WILL ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. VERY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND CLOCKWISE TURNING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES... ESPECIALLY FOR ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT MAY DEVELOP. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLEX THIS AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE BANDS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE FROM RUC/ETA/AND PARALLEL NAM-WRF ALL INDICATE REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM SRN LOWER MI SSWWD INTO THE MID SOUTH DURING THE MID AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ACCELERATE EWD AS THE FRONT SURGES EWD THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS TO OCCUR AS THE MULTIPLE BANDS MOVE RAPIDLY EWD/NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION...IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE TORNADOES AND HAIL. GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION MAY SPREAD EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF A LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...TN VALLEY/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO SERN STATES... ALTHOUGH PRIMARY FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL MOVE FARTHER NORTH...THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY WARM...SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50 KT OR GREATER WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ..WEISS/GUYER.. 03/13/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 14 00:59:58 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 19:59:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060314010254.71003D48EB@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140100 SWODY1 SPC AC 140058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES NEWD TO UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY AND MUCH OF PA/SRN NY... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH TROUGH EXTENDING INTO MID MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AS IT TRACKS NEWD TOWARD SWRN QUEBEC/UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN DYNAMIC WITH STRONG WINDS AT ALL LEVELS AS 200-300 METER HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD DOWNSTREAM JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW... CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER FAR ERN U.P. OF MI...SHOULD BEGIN TO OCCLUDE OVER ERN ONTARIO TOWARD 12Z...WITH EVENTUAL COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ME COAST DURING EARLY DAY 2 PERIOD. COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD FROM THE MI LOW THROUGH ERN MI/WRN OH TO MIDDLE TN AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT REACHING THE HUDSON VALLEY SWD TO MID ATLANTIC STATES AND NERN GULF BY 12Z. ...TN VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... NWD TRANSPORT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO THE UPPER TN RIVER VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO OFFSET THE LOSS OF INSOLATION TO MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH 0-3 KM SRH VALUES RANGING FROM 200-300 M2/S2 FROM CENTRAL AL-ERN TN WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN GA...GIVEN A MORE STABLE AIR MASS PER ATL 00Z SOUNDING WHICH DETECTED A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP. FARTHER S ACROSS THE SRN PARTS OF MS/AL...WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS INDICATED ON THE SLIDELL LA 00Z SOUNDING WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH SWD EXTENT THIS EVENING. ...UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES... WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDED FROM ERN VA/MD NWD INTO ERN PA EARLY THIS EVENING AND COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A PRIMARILY ELEVATED LINE OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS EWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND NJ THIS EVENING. DOWNSTREAM SOUNDINGS AT ALB/ NYC INDICATED A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC INVERSION SUGGESTING THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED. GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS TRANSLATING EWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS PENETRATE TO THE SURFACE. FARTHER W...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...GIVEN A NARROW AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG/E OF COLD FRONT AIDING IN THIS POTENTIAL. ..PETERS.. 03/14/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 14 05:44:33 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 14 Mar 2006 00:44:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060314054727.8D1BCD4A71@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140545 SWODY1 SPC AC 140544 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE ERN U.S. TODAY. OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW AND VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED OVER SERN CANADA TODAY. SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS PROGGED ALONG THE ME COAST THIS MORNING...WITH THIS LOW BECOMING THE PRIMARY LOW AS IT DEEPENS NEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TRAILING COLD FRONT...INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SWD TO NJ AND THEN SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL NC/SC/GA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WILL PROGRESS EWD OFF THE ERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SWD THROUGH FL AFTER 00Z. IN THE WEST...A COLD UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE NRN CA/PACIFIC NW COAST...WILL DE-AMPLIFY TODAY AS IT MOVES INLAND. ...NC/SC... SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...AND THEN OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC/SERN STATES BY 12Z TODAY MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. COLDER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO LAG THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN MODEST LAPSE RATES ALONG THE COAST. DESPITE THESE LIMITING FACTORS...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE CAROLINAS AND SOME SURFACE HEATING SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 500 TO NEAR 1000 J/KG/ AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. VEERING WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TEND TO MINIMIZE CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...GIVEN HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH... FORCING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. THIS COULD ENHANCE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 40-50+ KT MEAN FLOW REGIME...CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS. ...WRN STATES... MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND OVER CENTRAL CA/SRN NV DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...REACHING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. NORTH OF THE JET AXIS...COLD-MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /SUB -30 C AT 500 MB/ WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL CA... ESPECIALLY IF PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS. COLD...STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT FAVORS HAIL WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS...BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ANYTHING LARGER THAN MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. ..PETERS/GRAMS.. 03/14/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 14 12:55:15 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 14 Mar 2006 07:55:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060314125808.DA216D48EB@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141255 SWODY1 SPC AC 141254 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 AM CST TUE MAR 14 2006 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SWRN QUEBEC WILL MOVE NEWD TODAY...WHILE A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INLAND...BUT WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. ...NC/SC/GA... AROUND SUNRISE...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR DAN TO DHN AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY OFFSHORE BY 18Z. DESPITE MORNING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S... 12Z OBSERVED AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY MINIMAL INSTABILITY...MUCAPE VALUES FROM 100 TO 300 J/KG...WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES. SINCE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING ...DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD NOT DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. ALSO...OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE VEERED TO WLY...INDICATING CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT IS WEAK. THEREFORE... EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS MINIMAL. ...NRN/CENTRAL CA... A 70 KT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL SHIFT EWD FROM CENTRAL CA INTO NV TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND. NORTH OF THE JET AXIS ...500 MB TEMPERATURES FROM -28C TO -30C WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL CA. THESE STEEP LAPSE COMBINED WITH MUCAPES FROM 200-300 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30 KT MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WITH HAIL. ..IMY/GRAMS.. 03/14/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 14 16:18:09 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 14 Mar 2006 11:18:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060314162104.6DBB5D4A8A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141617 SWODY1 SPC AC 141616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1016 AM CST TUE MAR 14 2006 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MAJOR TROUGH MOVES OFF E COAST BY THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM DEEP LOW OVER QUEBEC SWD THRU SRN NEW ENGLAND THEN SWWD FROM ERN CAROLINAS INTO NERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WRN U.S. A COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND LATE TODAY WITH SOME WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS ACROSS INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TONIGHT. WELL DEFINED COMMA CLOUD NOTED IN W/V IMAGERY OFF CA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ...NRN/CENTRAL CA... WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBS OF HAIL IN NRN/CENTRAL CA W OF SIERRAS THRU THIS EVENING GIVEN THE APPROACH OF THE VORT/SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AIR MASS IS COLD WITH 7-8C/KM LAPSE RATES. ONLY MINIMAL CAPE EXPECTED TODAY GIVEN THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS...HOWEVER WITH SOME HEATING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE NOW CROSSING THE SIERRAS...200-300 J/KG COULD DEVELOP SACRAMENTO/NRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS BY MID DAY. ADDITIONALLY SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS WOULD BE HAIL GIVEN THE VERY LOW FREEZING LEVELS. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 03/14/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 14 19:47:49 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 14 Mar 2006 14:47:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060314195040.4AA4BD4A7D@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141948 SWODY1 SPC AC 141946 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0146 PM CST TUE MAR 14 2006 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA... LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS EVIDENT BY PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE VALLEY AND THICKER CONVEYOR SHIFTING ACROSS THE SIERRAS INTO WRN NV. BENEATH THE WEAK UPPER VORT...SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. COLD THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HAIL WILL BE COMMON WITHIN DEEPER CLOUD ELEMENTS...HOWEVER HAIL SIZES SHOULD REMAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE AT BEST DUE TO MEAGER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OBSERVED. STRONG UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST AT ROUGHLY 30 KT AND WILL APPROACH THE COAST BY 00Z. THIS MAY INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF JET AXIS. ...SERN U.S... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALL BUT MOVED OFF THE NC COAST...WHILE TRAILING CONVECTION ALONG THE WIND SHIFT IS SHALLOW...PARTIALLY DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE AMID POOR LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS ALL BUT ENDED ACROSS THIS REGION. ..DARROW.. 03/14/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 15 00:41:15 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 14 Mar 2006 19:41:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060315004407.E911FD4A71@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150041 SWODY1 SPC AC 150040 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 PM CST TUE MAR 14 2006 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN/CENTRAL CA... THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING /02-03Z/ ACROSS PARTS OF NRN/CENTRAL CA. THUS...THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES. DESPITE A COLD SURFACE AIR MASS...COLD UPPER TROUGH /500 MB TEMPERATURES AOB -30 C/ TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS CA INTO NV OVERNIGHT WILL MAINTAIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT OVER CA THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG. ALTHOUGH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE NRN SIERRA MOUNTAINS...NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL CA THIS EVENING. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS SECOND IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...WHILE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BACKED WITHIN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR VALUES FOR A FEW LOW-TOPPED STORMS WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT. THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS EXPECTED TO WANE AFTER SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES REDUCING POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY. ..PETERS.. 03/15/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 15 05:56:36 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 15 Mar 2006 00:56:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060315055925.8F2EDD4645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150557 SWODY1 SPC AC 150556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 PM CST TUE MAR 14 2006 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEPART THE ERN U.S. TODAY WITHIN PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES. UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON TRANSLATING ENEWD TOWARD THE ERN DAKOTAS/MID MO RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS... SURFACE LOW WILL EMERGE FROM ERN CO TRACKING INTO KS THIS AFTERNOON. TRAILING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SPREAD EWD...EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE LOW IN SRN IA SWWD ACROSS NWRN MO TO CENTRAL OK AND NWRN TX BY 12Z THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY APPROACHING NRN BAJA...IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR EWD REACHING THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES TONIGHT. ...SRN/ERN TX AND LA... ALTHOUGH STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS AND BROAD ZONE OF WAA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL U.S. STORM SYSTEM...DESTABILIZATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS FAR NORTH. FARTHER S... MOISTURE RETURN...ALREADY UNDERWAY ALONG THE LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY...WILL SPREAD NNEWD ACROSS SRN TX TODAY...REACHING INTO ERN TX/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. SECONDARY LLJ MAX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL TX INTO NRN LA/AR TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WITH SRN STREAM IMPULSE RESULTING IN STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ATOP COOL LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS...BUT SHOULD NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE THREAT. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW COAST TODAY. VERY COLD...STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...SUGGESTS CONVECTION IS LIKELY...BUT LIGHTNING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE MARINE LAYER WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. ..PETERS/JEWELL.. 03/15/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 15 13:02:16 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 15 Mar 2006 08:02:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060315130502.68316D466B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151302 SWODY1 SPC AC 151300 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 AM CST WED MAR 15 2006 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL DRIFT SLOWLY E TO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE TODAY AS UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN MOVES E INTO NEB EARLY THURSDAY. IN THE SRN STREAM...IMPULSE NOW APPROACHING NRN BAJA SHOULD SHEAR E ACROSS SRN AZ/NM AND REACH CNTRL/N TX EARLY THURSDAY. AT LWR LVLS...LEE LOW NOW FORMING OVER THE NRN HI PLNS SHOULD REDEVELOP E/SE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS LATER TODAY...BEFORE REACHING SRN IA EARLY THURSDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW SHOULD EXTEND THROUGH SW MO...ERN OK AND W CNTRL TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...SRN/ERN TX AND LA... WARM ADVECTION/SLIGHTLY ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN WILL INCREASE OVER SRN TX TODAY...AND ACROSS E TX AND THE LWR MS VLY TONIGHT. SECONDARY LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE WILL ENHANCE UPLIFT/ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF TX AND NRN/WRN LA EARLY THURSDAY. THIS MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT YIELD A FEW AREAS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION LATER IN THE PERIOD. BUT GIVEN LIMITED STRENGTH OF FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE SRN STREAM...STRONG CAP THAT WILL BE PRESENT...AND FACT THAT PRIMARY LOW LVL MASS FLUX WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM CROSSING THE CNTRL PLNS...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER APPEARS LIMITED. ...PAC NW... SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A STRONG SPEED MAX ATTM MOVING S FROM VICINITY OF 47N/158W. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TURN E TOWARD ORE LATER TODAY...AND SHOULD NEAR THE ORE CST BY 12Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT CSTL SECTIONS OF ORE/WA TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 03/15/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 15 15:48:22 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 15 Mar 2006 10:48:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060315155115.78FA5D4A8B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151547 SWODY1 SPC AC 151546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0946 AM CST WED MAR 15 2006 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC CANADA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN IT/S WAKE...A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS A RESULT OF THIS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FURTHER WEST...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD TOWARDS THE WEST COAST LATE TONIGHT. ...PAC NW... COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT STEEP LAPSE RATES. COMBINED WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS AND CYCLONIC LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW...THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISO-SCT CONVECTION OFFSHORE OF THE ORE/WA COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL RANGES...AS BANDS OF CONVECTION BEHIND THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN WITH ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT. ...SERN TX/WRN LA... WAA WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS REGION COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRENGTHENING RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM CRP/DRT SHOW PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 700 MB. THIS WILL ACT TO INHIBIT DEEP/MOIST CONVECTION OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD DESPITE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. SUBTLE MID LEVEL COOLING/HEIGHT FALLS ON SRN EXTENT OF CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH /PER COMPARISON OF 00Z AND 12Z TUS SOUNDINGS AND 12Z ELP AND DRT SOUNDINGS/ SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT /09-12Z/ OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF A GENERAL THUNDER AREA ATTM. ..CROSBIE/HALES.. 03/15/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 15 19:51:08 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 15 Mar 2006 14:51:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060315195423.EE958D4B0C@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151952 SWODY1 SPC AC 151950 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0150 PM CST WED MAR 15 2006 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WA/ORE COAST... LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUGGEST LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE INLAND...MAINLY ALONG THE WA COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. APPARENT WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...128W...IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY TEMPORARILY SUPPRESS TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET AND STRONGER REGION OF ASCENT APPROACHES THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. ...ARKLATEX... HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE HAS ENHANCED RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO TX THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC DEW POINTS SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST. WITH TIME...ELEVATED MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING WILL OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FARTHER INLAND AS TRAJECTORIES SHUNT THIS AIRMASS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL INITIATE OVER THIS AREA LATE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE TOWARD 12Z...HOWEVER GREATER CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY2 PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 03/15/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 16 01:37:16 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 15 Mar 2006 20:37:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060316014001.2190CD4B41@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160057 SWODY1 SPC AC 160055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST WED MAR 15 2006 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PATTERN IS EVIDENT ACROSS MOST OF CONUS. WRN STATES SYNOPTIC RIDGING INCREASES IN AMPLITUDE WITH NWD EXTENT ...THROUGH NRN ROCKIES AND INTO W-CENTRAL CANADA. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW JUST OFFSHORE WA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD...FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH NOW EVIDENT AROUND 135W-140W. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES -- WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE -- ANALYZED ATTM BETWEEN MCK-HLC -- IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS LNK AREA OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED/BRIEF THUNDER EVENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT N OF SFC LOW IN ELEVATED WAA CONVEYOR. HOWEVER...WHILE THIS WILL REMAIN A STRONG LOW-MIDLEVEL PERTURBATION...LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING WILL PRECLUDE GEN TSTM AREA. ...SRN/ERN TX TO WRN/NRN LA... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL TX IN REGIME OF ELEVATED MOISTENING AND WAA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH END OF PERIOD AS SEGMENTS OF MARGINALLY MOIST AIR IN LOW-MIDDLE LEVELS ARE LIFTED TO LFC. MUCAPES SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 500 J/KG AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES ENEWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SE TX THIS EVENING. RELATIVELY STABLE/LOW-THETAE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PRECLUDE SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR REMAINDER PERIOD. LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ABOVE THIS LAYER ARE FCST TO VEER -- SHUNTING FAVORABLE/ELEVATED RETURN FLOW MOISTURE ENEWD AND NEWD ACROSS E TX AND LA. ...COASTAL PACIFIC NW... BAND OF STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER ASCENT IS EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY ...WITH EMBEDDED TCU AND SHALLOW CB...NOW MOVING ASHORE WA AND NWRN ORE. ONCE THIS MOVE INLAND OVER COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER....DURING NEXT 3-4 HOURS...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL SET IN AND THUNDER POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH. THEN...TOWARD 16/12Z...ANOTHER AREA OF MAXIMIZED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL APCH COAST...ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH NOW AROUND 135W-140W. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSTMS. ..EDWARDS.. 03/16/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 18 05:52:36 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2006 00:52:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060318055539.391AAD4653@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180553 SWODY1 SPC AC 180551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 PM CST FRI MAR 17 2006 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN NM AND MUCH OF W TX... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES/SERN QUE REGION...RIDGE MOVING EWD FROM PLAINS STATES TOWARD MS VALLEY...AND DEEP TROUGHING OVER WRN STATES. HEIGHTS WILL FALL THROUGHOUT PERIOD ACROSS ROCKIES AND CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER BETWEEN GREAT BASIN AND NRN MEX. IN RESPONSE...VIGOROUS WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND SFC WARM FRONT NOW OVER S-CENTRAL AND FAR SW TX WILL RETREAT NWD SLOWLY. ...W TX AND SERN NM... TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE MID-LATE AFTERNOON ALONG DRYLINE FROM SW TX INTO SERN NM...MOVING NEWD OR ENEWD TOWARD WARM FRONT. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL OVER MOST OF MOIST SECTOR...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS ALSO LIKELY FROM MOST INTENSE CELLS. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED INVOF WARM FRONT...EITHER FOR 1. STORMS FORMING ALONG DRYLINE AND LATER CROSSING FRONT...OR 2. ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OF EITHER DRYLINE OR WARM FRONTAL ORIGIN THAT MOVE RIGHTWARD WITHIN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND STAY SFC-BASED. FCST SOUNDINGS ALONG WARM FRONT SUGGEST 65-75 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND HODOGRAPHS ENLARGED BY BACKED SFC WINDS...WITH 200-300 J/KG OF 0-1 KM SRH. LCL WILL LOWER WITH EWD EXTENT ALONG WARM FRONT BECAUSE OF HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT. CAPPING MAY PRECLUDE MORE THAN ONE OR TWO DOMINANT SFC-BASED STORMS...OTHERWISE SEVERE PROBABILITIES WOULD BE HIGHER. AFTER DARK...EXPECT INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW N OF WARM FRONT AND ABOVE RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. LLJ STRENGTHENING TO AS MUCH AS 50-55 KT WILL ENHANCE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW IN ELEVATED BUOYANT LAYER...RESULTING IN MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG...GENERALLY DIMINISHING WITH NWD EXTENT. EFFECTIVE SHEARS 50-60 KT INDICATE ROTATION POTENTIAL IN DISCRETE TSTMS WITH ENHANCED LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST INFLOW LAYER WILL REMAIN SFC-BASED FOR ANY TSTMS THAT CONTINUE S OF WARM FRONT...MAINTAINING SOME RISK OF ALL THREE SEVERE MODES. ...NRN NM AND S-CENTRAL CO... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND JUST E OF SANGRE DE CRISTOS...AS WELL AS WRN RATON MESA AREA...MID-LATE AFTERNOON. MRGL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL OR DAMAGING GUSTS...HOWEVER BOTH DURATION AND COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE DUE TO LACK OF MORE ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 8 DEG C/KM AND 60-70 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...BUT ALSO MLCAPES LESS THAN 300 J/KG IN MOST AREAS. ..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 03/18/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 18 06:46:59 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2006 01:46:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060318065003.B2AD0D4653@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180647 SWODY1 SPC AC 180646 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 AM CST SAT MAR 18 2006 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN NM AND MUCH OF W TX... CORRECTED CODING OF SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES/SERN QUE REGION...RIDGE MOVING EWD FROM PLAINS STATES TOWARD MS VALLEY...AND DEEP TROUGHING OVER WRN STATES. HEIGHTS WILL FALL THROUGHOUT PERIOD ACROSS ROCKIES AND CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER BETWEEN GREAT BASIN AND NRN MEX. IN RESPONSE...VIGOROUS WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND SFC WARM FRONT NOW OVER S-CENTRAL AND FAR SW TX WILL RETREAT NWD SLOWLY. ...W TX AND SERN NM... TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE MID-LATE AFTERNOON ALONG DRYLINE FROM SW TX INTO SERN NM...MOVING NEWD OR ENEWD TOWARD WARM FRONT. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL OVER MOST OF MOIST SECTOR...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS ALSO LIKELY FROM MOST INTENSE CELLS. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED INVOF WARM FRONT...EITHER FOR 1. STORMS FORMING ALONG DRYLINE AND LATER CROSSING FRONT...OR 2. ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OF EITHER DRYLINE OR WARM FRONTAL ORIGIN THAT MOVE RIGHTWARD WITHIN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND STAY SFC-BASED. FCST SOUNDINGS ALONG WARM FRONT SUGGEST 65-75 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND HODOGRAPHS ENLARGED BY BACKED SFC WINDS...WITH 200-300 J/KG OF 0-1 KM SRH. LCL WILL LOWER WITH EWD EXTENT ALONG WARM FRONT BECAUSE OF HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT. CAPPING MAY PRECLUDE MORE THAN ONE OR TWO DOMINANT SFC-BASED STORMS...OTHERWISE SEVERE PROBABILITIES WOULD BE HIGHER. AFTER DARK...EXPECT INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW N OF WARM FRONT AND ABOVE RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. LLJ STRENGTHENING TO AS MUCH AS 50-55 KT WILL ENHANCE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW IN ELEVATED BUOYANT LAYER...RESULTING IN MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG...GENERALLY DIMINISHING WITH NWD EXTENT. EFFECTIVE SHEARS 50-60 KT INDICATE ROTATION POTENTIAL IN DISCRETE TSTMS WITH ENHANCED LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST INFLOW LAYER WILL REMAIN SFC-BASED FOR ANY TSTMS THAT CONTINUE S OF WARM FRONT...MAINTAINING SOME RISK OF ALL THREE SEVERE MODES. ...NRN NM AND S-CENTRAL CO... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND JUST E OF SANGRE DE CRISTOS...AS WELL AS WRN RATON MESA AREA...MID-LATE AFTERNOON. MRGL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL OR DAMAGING GUSTS...HOWEVER BOTH DURATION AND COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE DUE TO LACK OF MORE ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 8 DEG C/KM AND 60-70 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...BUT ALSO MLCAPES LESS THAN 300 J/KG IN MOST AREAS. ..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 03/18/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 18 12:51:54 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2006 07:51:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060318125454.921BFD4702@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181252 SWODY1 SPC AC 181251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 AM CST SAT MAR 18 2006 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF W TX AND ERN NM... ...SYNOPSIS... MINIMAL LARGE SCALE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD AS DEEP VORTEX LINGERS OVER THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND WRN STATES TROUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY E INTO THE GRT BASIN. VORT MAX IN BASE OF WRN TROUGH...NOW OVER SRN CA...SHOULD LIFT NE INTO WRN CO BY EARLY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SPEED MAXIMA DROP S FROM NV/CA INTO NRN BAJA. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SRN PLNS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL FROM W TO E LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WRN TROUGH EDGES EWD. AT THE SURFACE...SHALLOW FRONT NOW EXTENDING ESE FROM N OF THE BIG BEND REGION SHOULD DRIFT SLOWLY NE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPR FLOW SLIGHTLY BACKS AND STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING TROUGH. ...W TX/SE NM... SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY IN ZONE OF LOW LVL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS W TX. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO SPREAD N/NE WITH TIME ALONG 30-40 KT SLY LLJ. THE STORMS MAY POSE AN OCCASIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL GIVEN QUALITY OF ELEVATED MOISTURE INFLOW /MIXING RATIOS AOA 13 G PER KG IN UPSTREAM LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT NEAR KDRT/. GIVEN AT LEAST MODEST SURFACE HEATING...SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE THAT SHOULD FORM OVER SW TX INTO SERN NM. A FEW SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER E/SE ALONG WARM FRONT. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH ALL OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AS DEEP SWLY SHEAR AOA 50 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...SEASONABLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW AND LARGE DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL SHEAR /ESE SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO SLY AT 850 MB/ SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ALONG WARM FRONT. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT REMAIN SURFACE-BASED AND/OR MOVE ESELY ALONG THE FRONT. CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS. CONTINUED EWD ADVANCE OF WRN U.S. TROUGH SHOULD STRENGTHEN LLJ AND ASSOCIATED ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND LOWER HEIGHTS... ACROSS TX AND OK TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD CREATE AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ELEVATED TSTMS AS MUCAPE RISES TO AOA 1500 J/KG NWD INTO OK. WITH CLOUD LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 50-60 KT...ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL APPEAR LIKELY. FARTHER S...POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR POSSIBLE SURFACE-BASED STORMS INVOF WARM FRONT ACROSS CNTRL TEXAS. ...NRN NM AND S CNTRL CO... SURFACE HEATING MAY INITIATE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND JUST E OF SANGRE DE CRISTOS MTNS...AS WELL AS OVER WRN RATON MESA AREA OF NE NM. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL OR DAMAGING GUSTS...ALTHOUGH BOTH STORM DURATION AND COVERAGE ARE QUESTIONABLE GIVEN LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FOSTERED BY STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 8 DEG C PER KM/ AND 60-70 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. ..CORFIDI.. 03/18/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 18 16:22:37 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2006 11:22:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060318162538.BCEEAD4A71@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181623 SWODY1 SPC AC 181621 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1021 AM CST SAT MAR 18 2006 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WRN INTO CENTRAL TX... ...SRN PLAINS... STRONG UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE PERIOD...MAINTAINING BROAD ZONE OF MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS REMAINS WITHIN COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER TX COAST INTO THE BIG BEND REGION/FAR SWRN TX. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON MAINTAINING A SIMILAR FRONTAL POSITION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LIMIT SURFACE MOISTURE RETURN TO THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION TODAY...WHERE LOWER TO MID 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG SLOPED/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WITH A LARGE MCS IN NCNTRL TX. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED BY MORE FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING THAN YESTERDAY. LATEST ENSEMBLE MEAN FCST INDICATES THAT MASS INFLOW ON MODEST LLJ WILL PERSIST FROM NWRN TX TO THE RED RIVER THROUGH THE DAY AS MID LEVEL FLOW AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM AMA AND MAF DISPLAYED STEEP 3-6KM LAPSE RATES OF 7.6C/KM IN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60KT. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING CONVECTION WITHIN STRENGTHENING WARM CONVEYOR...COUPLED WITH UPSTREAM LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR...THE CHANCE FOR ELEVATED AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. IN THE WAKE OF ONGOING STORMS...CLOUDS WILL HINDER SURFACE HEATING MUCH MORE THAN YESTERDAY NEAR THE NWRN EDGE OF SURFACE DEW POINT AXIS. THIS SUGGESTS AFTERNOON/EVENING DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LESS DRIVEN BY HEATING...AND MORE SUPPORTED BY WEAK DISTURBANCES EJECTING AWAY FROM BROAD WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. NOTHING IS EVIDENT IN MORNING SAT IMAGERY. HOWEVER...MORNING GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE MCSS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK IMPULSE LIFTS ENEWD INTO WRN AND CENTRAL TX. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT RENEWED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT WITH NEXT ROUND OF STORMS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. SHOULD BREAKS IN OVERCAST ALLOW AMPLE HEATING INTO FAR SWRN TX...A SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS THIS EVENING. ..EVANS/TAYLOR/CARBIN.. 03/18/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 18 19:42:32 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2006 14:42:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060318194531.35667D4AA1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181943 SWODY1 SPC AC 181942 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2006 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS... ...SRN PLAINS... LOW-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM BUBBLE HIGH OVER NWRN TX HAS MAINTAINED A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL SW INTO SWRN TX THIS AFTN. THE CAPPED WARM SECTOR HAS BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS S AND W OF KVCT-KSAT-KFST LINE. ADDITIONALLY...UNLIKE FRI...WARM CONVEYOR AND MOUNTAIN WAVE HIGH CLOUDS ARE THICKER AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAT THOSE OBSERVED FRI AFTN. AS A RESULT...SURFACE-BASED TSTM INITIATION IS IN QUESTION TODAY ACROSS SWRN TX...WITH MUCH HIGHER PROBABILITIES W/S OF THE RIO GRANDE VLY IN MEXICO. WATER VAPOR SUGGESTS THAT A JETLET WAS NOSING NEWD INTO NRN MEXICO THAT WILL TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM INTO TX THIS EVENING. AS LARGE SCALE LIFT APPROACHES THE REGION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/EXPAND FROM SWRN TX AND SERN NM NEWD INTO NCNTRL TX AND OK OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL LARGELY BE ELEVATED AND POSE MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WCNTRL-NCNTRL TX WHERE STEEPEST MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST /MIDLAND 18Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED 1017 J PER KG MUCAPE AND 66 KTS OF EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR/. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY OF A NEAR-SFC BASED STORM /DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/ ALONG THE NW-SE ORIENTED FRONT ACROSS SERN NM SEWD INTO SWRN-CNTRL TX. ..RACY.. 03/18/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 00:32:30 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2006 19:32:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060319003528.C2733D4702@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190033 SWODY1 SPC AC 190031 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0631 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2006 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX... ...TX/ERN NM/SRN OK... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. WITH A SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW OVER FAR WEST TX. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS THE MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWWD ACROSS THE SWRN TX HILL COUNTRY INTO FAR WEST TX WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F EXISTING NORTH AND EAST OF DEL RIO. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE AIRMASS MANAGED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE TODAY AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 10 IN WCNTRL TX. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE REGION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE ALONG A DIFFUSE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED NORTHEAST OF THE BIG BEND AREA. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE STORMS DRIFTING EWD INTO THE GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS WCNTRL TX. WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION SHOW VERY STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE SUGGESTING SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN SOME OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS NEWD. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SHEAR WILL MAKE LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS AND THE STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE SFC-BASED. ALTHOUGH SUPERCELLS WILL BE LESS LIKELY ACROSS NCNTRL TX...THE STRONG SHEAR AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL MAKE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER ELEVATED STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST IN THE 04Z TO 08Z TIMEFRAME EARLY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS FORECAST TO TRACK EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN TX. THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THE MCS SHOULD BECOME MARGINAL LATE TONIGHT AS THE MCS MOVES EWD AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS. ..BROYLES.. 03/19/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 06:00:00 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 01:00:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060319060257.61095D4703@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190600 SWODY1 SPC AC 190558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2006 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX AND SRN OK... ...SRN PLAINS... A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN US WILL CLOSE-OFF AND SLIDE EWD TODAY INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. A 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUNCH NEWD INTO WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NWD ACROSS WEST TX. IN SPITE OF ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SFC HEATING AND DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S F IN WEST TX SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR STORM INITIATION SHOULD BE ON THE CAPROCK WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED DUE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE IN THE EVENING WITH TWO OR THREE MCS CLUSTERS ORGANIZING AND DRIFTING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND NORTH TX DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IN WCNTRL AND SW TX WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1000 TO 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SUPERCELLS DRIFT EWD INTO THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE EVENING HOURS. STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WHERE THE STORMS HAVE ACCESS TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ALTHOUGH STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED ACROSS NORTH TX AND NEAR THE RED RIVER...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THEAT SHOULD GRADUALLY LESSEN AS THE STORMS DRIFT EWD INTO WEAKENING INSTABILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ..BROYLES/GUYER.. 03/19/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 06:11:05 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 01:11:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060319061402.C97ACD4703@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190610 SWODY1 SPC AC 190608 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX AND SRN OK... CORRECTED TO ADD THUNDER LINE ...SRN PLAINS... A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN US WILL CLOSE-OFF AND SLIDE EWD TODAY INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. A 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUNCH NEWD INTO WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NWD ACROSS WEST TX. IN SPITE OF ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SFC HEATING AND DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S F IN WEST TX SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR STORM INITIATION SHOULD BE ON THE CAPROCK WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED DUE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE IN THE EVENING WITH TWO OR THREE MCS CLUSTERS ORGANIZING AND DRIFTING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND NORTH TX DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IN WCNTRL AND SW TX WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1000 TO 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SUPERCELLS DRIFT EWD INTO THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE EVENING HOURS. STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WHERE THE STORMS HAVE ACCESS TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ALTHOUGH STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED ACROSS NORTH TX AND NEAR THE RED RIVER...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THEAT SHOULD GRADUALLY LESSEN AS THE STORMS DRIFT EWD INTO WEAKENING INSTABILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ..BROYLES.. 03/19/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 13:00:18 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 08:00:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060319130314.B6B41D4700@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191300 SWODY1 SPC AC 191259 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPR TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN GRT BASIN SHOULD EJECT E/NE TO THE CNTRL/SRN RCKYS LATER THIS PERIOD AS UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE OVER THE GULF OF AK MOVES SE TO OFF THE ORE/NRN CA COAST. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW SPEED MAXIMA CONTINUING TO DROP S ON WRN SIDE OF GRT BASIN SYSTEM. THUS...EXPECT THAT LARGE SCALE TROUGH LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLOW-MOVER UNTIL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER NRN BAJA ASSUMES A NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT UPON REACHING NM/W TX TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT SHALLOW WARM FRONT THAT NOW EXTENDS FROM N OF KDRT TO NEAR KSAT TO NEAR KHOU WILL DRIFT/REDEVELOP SLOWLY N WITH TIME. ITS MOVEMENT WILL...HOWEVER...LIKELY BE RETARDED BY CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION N OF FRONT. FARTHER N... SECONDARY BAROCLINIC ZONE/INVERTED TROUGH MAY ALSO REMAIN DISTINCT ...EXTENDING FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY ENE INTO E CNTRL/NE TX. ELONGATED LEE LOW INITIALLY OVER ERN NM SHOULD CONSOLIDATE NE INTO THE TX PANHANDLE LATER TODAY/ TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL REMOVED FROM TRUE WARM SECTOR AIR OVER S CNTRL/SE TX. ...SRN PLNS... OVERNIGHT PERSISTENCE OF TSTMS ALONG INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY ENE INTO E CNTRL/NE TX SUGGESTS THAT THIS CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH THE DAY AS DEEP/MOIST SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO IMPINGE ON BOUNDARY BENEATH WEAKLY DIFFLUENT UPR JET. THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ON N SIDE OF TROUGH. WITH TIME...HOWEVER... MODEST SURFACE HEATING MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE-BASED ACTIVITY FROM NE OF KDRT TO NEAR KCLL...WHERE SBCAPE COULD EXCEED 1000 J/KG. COUPLED WITH LOW LCLS AND 40-50 KT CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE TROUGH...SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW HP SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS ONE OR TWO TORNADOES. FARTHER W...EXPECT THAT A SECOND CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE AXIS WILL EVOLVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NE NM AND THE WRN TX PANHANDLE S/SE INTO THE TX S PLAINS/PERMIAN BASIN AS SURFACE HEATING DESTABILIZES REGION ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE. BY EVENING THIS REGION WILL ALSO COME UNDER INFLUENCE OF RAPIDLY INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL...MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH 500 MB SSWLY FLOW INCREASING TO AOA 70 KTS... EXPECT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND. WHILE STORM MODE MAY FAIRLY RAPIDLY TREND TOWARD BANDS/CLUSTERS...BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW INVOF WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SEGMENTS AND SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. THE TX STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP PRIMARILY NEWD ...POSSIBLY AFFECTING PARTS OF OK...SW AR AND LA WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND POSSIBLY HIGH WIND EARLY MONDAY. ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 03/19/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 16:20:51 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 11:20:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060319162346.32C52D45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191622 SWODY1 SPC AC 191620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF TX... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S...WITH MOIST PLUME OF SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS TX. SEVERAL EMBEDDED FEATURES IN THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY1 PERIOD. SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS MAIN SYSTEM BEGINS TO EJECT INTO REGION. ...TX... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS PRIMARY SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF DRT TO NEAR AUS. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF THIS FRONT ARE TRANSPORTING RICH GULF MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL TX /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY...BEFORE ACCELERATING NORTHWARD TONIGHT AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THIS REGION. SCATTERED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT...CONTRIBUTING TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. NORTH OF BOUNDARY...DEEP CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIP SHOULD LIMIT HEATING AND PRECLUDE SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MORNING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TX...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHEAST OF MAF INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SURFACE-BASED AND SUPERCELLULAR. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT WHERE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND DEVELOP NORTHWARD AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TX AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS TO THE WEST. ...SERN CO/ERN NM/TX PNHDL... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BACK EDGE OF CLOUD COVER EXTENDS FROM NEAR ROW TO EAST OF RTN. CLEARING SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR STRONG HEATING/DESTABILIZATION FROM SOUTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHEAST NM. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO HIGHER TERRAIN MAY HELP INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA. DESPITE WEAK CAPE...HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS. ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE BEFORE WEAKENING. ..HART/TAYLOR.. 03/19/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 19:55:12 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 14:55:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060319195807.2801DD4A94@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191955 SWODY1 SPC AC 191954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/NRN TX... ...TX... H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA APPEARS TO ALREADY BE AIDING IN LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTN. ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE BEEN INTENSIFYING FROM THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF SW TX NEWD INTO NRN TX. THIS MAY BE THE START OF A PROLONGED SEVERE EVENT ACROSS MAINLY CNTRL/NRN TX THAT WILL LAST THROUGH TONIGHT. 19Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES THE WMFNT FROM JUST S OF KFST TO KAUS-KHOU- KMSY. BINOVC OCCURRING N OF THE FRONT ACROSS CNTRL TX MAY ALLOW THE FRONT TO JUMP NWD BY THIS EVE...PARTICULARLY EAST OF KJCT. S OF THE FRONT...AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...BUT SFC BASED PARCELS WERE CAPPED. SUBSTANTIAL LARGE SCALE ASCENT/COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH DOES NOT SPREAD EWD UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. BUT...WEAK ASCENT TIED TO JETLETS EJECTING NEWD FROM MEXICO...HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT/HIGHER SW TX TERRAIN WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE SFC-BASED TSTMS MID-LATE AFTN FROM THE SRN TRANSPECOS NEWD TOWARD CNTRL TX. OTHERWISE...ELEVATED STORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NRN TX INTO OK THROUGH THE EVE. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. INITIAL SFC-BASED STORMS ACROSS SWRN TX MAY PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO. OTHERWISE...MOST STORMS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS N TX WITH A LARGE HAIL THREAT. OVERNIGHT...ALL SHORT TERM MODELS HINT THAT A SECONDARY JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP FROM CNTRL MEXICO NEWD INTO SCNTRL TX. THIS MAY AUGMENT SRN EDGE OF TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL TX AND A SEVERE MCS MAY EVOLVE ALONG/S OF THE WMFNT INTO ECNTRL TX N OF THE HOUSTON AREA BY 12Z MON. IF THIS INDEED OCCURS...INCREASING RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT AS STORM MODES TRANSITION INTO LINEAR MIXED WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ...SRN HI PLAINS... H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SW BEGINS TO BODILY EJECT ENEWD INTO THE SRN HI PLAINS THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT WITH STRONGEST LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS NRN NM...SRN CO AND THE TX/OK PNHDLS. SELY FLOW EAST OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT HAS ADVECTED MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MSTR NEWD INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND GIVEN COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AIR MASS HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY PRODUCE ISOLD LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTN/EVE GIVEN THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS LATER TONIGHT AS STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES. THESE LINE SEGMENTS WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AND MOVE EWD INTO THE OK/TX PNHDLS BY 12Z WITH PERHAPS HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ..RACY.. 03/19/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 05:55:24 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 00:55:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060320055820.EA5B8D48EB@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200556 SWODY1 SPC AC 200554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS AND AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS... ...LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY... A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ORGANIZE AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SPREAD STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS. INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT COMBINED WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THIS REGION. AN MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD NEAR THE TX-LA STATE-LINE. THIS STORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS LA AND NRN MS TODAY HELPING TO SHARPEN A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS MS...AL AND GA. THE FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM CNTRL MS EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AL BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM SHOULD BRING SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S F ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF MS AND AL. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE INITIAL MORNING MCS WILL TRACK ENEWD ALONG THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ALLOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS SCNTRL MS AND CNTRL AL BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES AND AN ASSOCIATED 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET PUNCHES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...STORM INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS SERN LA OR SWRN MS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A SEVERE MCS DEVELOPING AND MOVING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL MS AND NCNTRL AL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA TODAY WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 60-70 KT SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH STORMS THAT REMAIN DISCREET. LARGE LOOPED HODOGRAPHS DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CREATE 0-1 KM SRH VALUES AROUND 300 M2/S2 SUGGESTING SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAX FROM SCNTRL MS EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS MOST OF ERN MS INTO WRN AND NRN AL. IF MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS FORECAST...A FEW LONG TRACK STRONG TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT PARALLEL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOW ECHOES. IF CELLS GRADUALLY MERGE AND A LINEAR MCS DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD ALSO BE ENHANCED ACROSS THE REGION. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS A DRY SLOT PUNCHES EWD ACROSS THE REGION AND THE MCS MOVES AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS. ...SRN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU... A POTENT UPPER-LOW WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS TODAY. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS AR AND OK THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND WARMING SFC TEMPS WILL CREATE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD EXIST FROM FAR ERN OK ACROSS THE AR RIVER VALLEY. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 03/20/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 12:58:03 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 07:58:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060320130056.73612D4AB1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201258 SWODY1 SPC AC 201256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL MS AND EXTREME W CENTRAL AL.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM OK ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO WRN GA.... ...SYNOPSIS... COMPLEX SITUATION TODAY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY WITH MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF ONGOING CONVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS BEGINNING TO EJECT ENEWD OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. AN INITIAL BAND OF CONVECTION FROM SE AR INTO SE TX HAS PRODUCED A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL THAT HAS REINFORCED THE COOL/STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS E TX AND NW LA. SHORT TERM MODEL FORECASTS /ESPECIALLY THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM/ DO NOT REFLECT THE IMPACTS OF THIS CONVECTION PARTICULARLY WELL...WHICH AFFECTS THE TRACK OF THE INITIAL SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY LATER TODAY ACROSS NRN LA/NE TX/AR. ...CENTRAL LA/MS AREA TODAY... WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAX OVER SE TX WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL LA THIS MORNING...AND CENTRAL MS THIS AFTERNOON IF IT SURVIVES. OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE NWD RETURN OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS LA/MS THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN ESTABLISHING THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR NEAR AND S OF I-20 BY AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR /MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG/. ADDITIONALLY...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS INVOF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...WHERE RICH L0W-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THE TORNADO THREAT TODAY. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PEAK THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS AL BY EARLY TONIGHT. ...OK AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING... THE MID LEVEL COLD CORE LOW OVER ERN NM WILL ROTATE EWD TO WRN OK BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. STEEP L0W-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -25 C WILL SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DESPITE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S. GIVEN THE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE MID-UPPER JET...LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TRACK OF THE OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW. ...ARKLATEX REGION TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT... SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT AND MORNING CONVECTION. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WHAT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE THE SURFACE...ORIGINATING FROM THE STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME OVER S TX. THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AREA COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH SEVERE STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 03/20/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 16:34:12 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 11:34:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060320163702.E08F5D4700@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201632 SWODY1 SPC AC 201630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK... LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. MID LEVEL JET MAX OF 100+ KNOTS IS FORECAST TO NOSE INTO PARTS OF AR/LA THIS EVENING...PROVIDING STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM EAST TX INTO PARTS OF AL TODAY...AS WELL AS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK BENEATH COLD UPPER LOW. ...LOWER MS VALLEY... MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS PRIMARY WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF LCH INTO SOUTHERN MS. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. CURRENT VAD/PROFILER DATA ALREADY SHOW VERY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SOUTH OF FRONT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND THE THREAT OF TORNADOES. THREAT SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS SMALL POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING OCCUR AND WARM FRONT LIFTS TO NEAR I-20. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN LA AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MS. IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES. SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE AFTER DARK INTO PARTS OF AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. ...SOUTHERN OK INTO WESTERN AR... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LINE OF CLEARING SKIES DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH TX INTO SOUTHERN OK. VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHERE STRONG HEATING OCCURS...RESULTING IN MARGINAL/MODERATE INSTABILITY. ALL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST A RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. ..HART/TAYLOR.. 03/20/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 19:29:42 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 14:29:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060320193233.E0F5CD498D@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201930 SWODY1 SPC AC 201929 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARS OF S CNTRL MS INTO W CNTRL AL.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREAS ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS RED RIVER VALLEY.... CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW PATTERN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PERSISTS...PROVIDING CONTINUING LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THUS...WHILE DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE LIFTING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...THIS FEATURE SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MIGRATES ALONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 12Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAK SECONDARY SURFACE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY...AS UPPER IMPULSE IS SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...MODELS MAY BE A BIT TO FAR TO THE NORTH/WEST WITH THIS FEATURE...AS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PRECLUDING NORTHWARD RETURN OF MOIST UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NORTHWARD RETURN OF THIS AIR MASS HAS STALLED SOUTH OF JACKSON MS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND THIS FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO FORCING BENEATH DIFLUENT UPPER REGIME BETWEEN SOUTHERN POLAR JET STREAK AND ACCOMPANYING SUBTROPICAL JET. ...CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF STATES**... ALONG/SOUTH OF AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT...SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA/ MISSISSIPPI. SIMILAR MOISTENING IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS INTO THE VICINITY OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...DESPITE LACK OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHILE COLD CORE OF UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT WELL TO THE NORTH/WEST OF REGION...STRENGTHENING FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES ON ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING RISK FOR SUPERCELLS IN WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK SEEMS LOW... FORCING MAY STILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL OR TWO. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY SOUTH/EAST OF THE JACKSON MS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS INTO AREAS NORTH/WEST OF SELMA/MONTGOMERY AL THIS EVENING...WHERE LARGE CLOCKWISE TURNING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TORNADOES. ...RED RIVER VALLEY**... FRONTAL ZONE EAST OF WEAKENING SURFACE CYCLONE...FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...SEEMS LIKELY TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AIDED BY FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF 100+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK...DESTABILIZATION PROBABLY WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME HAIL BRIEFLY APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS...BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AFTER DARK. **PLEASE MONITOR FOR THE LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS...FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS. ..KERR.. 03/20/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 19:38:29 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 14:38:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060320194123.9D479D4982@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201939 SWODY1 SPC AC 201938 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0138 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARS OF S CNTRL MS INTO W CNTRL AL.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREAS ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS RED RIVER VALLEY.... CORRECTED TO CLARIFY 5% AND 2% LINES ON TORNADO PROBABILITY GRAPHIC CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW PATTERN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PERSISTS...PROVIDING CONTINUING LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THUS...WHILE DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE LIFTING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...THIS FEATURE SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MIGRATES ALONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 12Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAK SECONDARY SURFACE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY...AS UPPER IMPULSE IS SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...MODELS MAY BE A BIT TO FAR TO THE NORTH/WEST WITH THIS FEATURE...AS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PRECLUDING NORTHWARD RETURN OF MOIST UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NORTHWARD RETURN OF THIS AIR MASS HAS STALLED SOUTH OF JACKSON MS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND THIS FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO FORCING BENEATH DIFLUENT UPPER REGIME BETWEEN SOUTHERN POLAR JET STREAK AND ACCOMPANYING SUBTROPICAL JET. ...CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF STATES**... ALONG/SOUTH OF AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT...SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA/ MISSISSIPPI. SIMILAR MOISTENING IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS INTO THE VICINITY OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...DESPITE LACK OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHILE COLD CORE OF UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT WELL TO THE NORTH/WEST OF REGION...STRENGTHENING FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES ON ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING RISK FOR SUPERCELLS IN WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK SEEMS LOW... FORCING MAY STILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL OR TWO. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY SOUTH/EAST OF THE JACKSON MS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS INTO AREAS NORTH/WEST OF SELMA/MONTGOMERY AL THIS EVENING...WHERE LARGE CLOCKWISE TURNING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TORNADOES. ...RED RIVER VALLEY**... FRONTAL ZONE EAST OF WEAKENING SURFACE CYCLONE...FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...SEEMS LIKELY TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AIDED BY FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF 100+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK...DESTABILIZATION PROBABLY WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME HAIL BRIEFLY APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS...BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AFTER DARK. **PLEASE MONITOR FOR THE LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS...FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS. ..KERR.. 03/20/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 21 00:53:19 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 19:53:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060321005610.67FFCD4700@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210054 SWODY1 SPC AC 210052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AL...SRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN KS...NE OK AND FAR WRN AR... ...SRN AL/SRN GA AND FL PANHANDLE... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WHICH IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE TN VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO HELP SUPPORT A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS AL...GA AND FL PANHANDLE. LOCAL WSR-88D VWPS CURRENTLY SHOW VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 75 TO 85 KT. IN ADDITION...SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE LINE OF 60-65 F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS AS THE LINE MOVES EWD INTO SW GA AND ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE. WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NEWD INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY TONIGHT...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAKENING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO BECOME MARGINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ...SE OK/FAR WRN AR... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH A DRY SLOT PUNCHING NEWD INTO SE OK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NRN AND ERN OK DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER-LOW AND MAY AFFECT SRN KS AND NW AR THIS EVENING. THE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. DECREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID DECREASE OF THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE 03Z TO 05Z TIMEFRAME. ..BROYLES.. 03/21/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 21 12:55:22 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 21 Mar 2006 07:55:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060321125809.B0587D497E@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211256 SWODY1 SPC AC 211254 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 AM CST TUE MAR 21 2006 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS N FL AND S GA.... ...N FL/S GA AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON... A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID MS/LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS WILL MOVE EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS BY THIS EVENING AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ALONG A COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF OF SC/NC. THE OCCLUDED LOW IN NE AR WILL GRADUALLY FILL TODAY WHILE MOVING EWD...AS WILL A WEAK SECONDARY LOW ALONG AN E-W FRONT ACROSS S GA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NEWD ACROSS S GA AND SC. THE 12Z TLH SOUNDING REVEALS A MOIST WARM SECTOR ACROSS N FL WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG/ AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...AND AT LEAST ONE STORM HAS DISPLAYED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS THIS MORNING W OF TLH. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO ACROSS N FL/S GA THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THEREAFTER...LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN AND THE SEVERE STORM THREAT SHOULD DECREASE. ..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 03/21/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 21 16:23:50 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 21 Mar 2006 11:23:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060321162635.E3561D4307@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211622 SWODY1 SPC AC 211619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1019 AM CST TUE MAR 21 2006 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF GA/FL... ...GA/FL... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...WHILE MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS SLOWLY WEAKENING ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF GA/FL... MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL SLOWLY VEER LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WEAKEN CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO LESSEN THE RISK OF STRONG CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE...ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY. ..HART/GRAMS.. 03/21/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 21 19:35:26 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 21 Mar 2006 14:35:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060321193811.4040DD4307@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211936 SWODY1 SPC AC 211933 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0133 PM CST TUE MAR 21 2006 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... TO THE SOUTH OF HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN...A SIGNIFICANT BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES PERSISTS ACROSS THE U.S...FROM THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES. MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASING SHEARED IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THIS STREAM...WITHIN BROADER SCALE CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW...WILL RAPIDLY ACCELERATE EAST OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ACROSS MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSES IS STILL WELL UPSTREAM...ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY...BUT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS NOW ONGOING OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST IN RESPONSE TO FORCING AHEAD OF LEAD IMPULSE. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...AS REINFORCING COLD INTRUSION OVERSPREADS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS DIMINISHING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS. TRAILING COLD FRONT HAS YET TO ADVANCE THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA...BUT WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL INHIBITION SEEM LIKELY TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO COULD STILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OFF THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO INTO AREAS NORTH OF TAMPA...WHERE MODERATELY STRONG AND SHEARED FLOW REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION AND AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... AN ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN/ CENTRAL ROCKIES. HOWEVER...MAIN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY COLD CORE OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW BEGINNING TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING EAST OF THE RIVER...AND PERHAPS NEAR CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA...AND STRONGER FORCING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. ..KERR.. 03/21/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 22 00:29:55 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 21 Mar 2006 19:29:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060322003240.8FB53D497E@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220030 SWODY1 SPC AC 220029 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0629 PM CST TUE MAR 21 2006 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LOW OVER NRN AZ WHICH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 03/22/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 22 05:53:01 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 22 Mar 2006 00:53:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060322055544.535B6D4307@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220553 SWODY1 SPC AC 220551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 PM CST TUE MAR 21 2006 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MAKE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ESEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY...ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COASTS OF TX...LA AND MS. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND LIMITED MOISTURE. ..BROYLES.. 03/22/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 22 12:43:47 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 22 Mar 2006 07:43:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060322124628.E7ACED46C1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221244 SWODY1 SPC AC 221242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 AM CST WED MAR 22 2006 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS WILL BE DRY/STABLE TODAY AS A RESULT OF OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS...AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. OTHERWISE...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY S OF E FROM WRN NM THIS MORNING TO N TX AND OK OVERNIGHT. A CORE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ACCOMPANY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NM TODAY...WHERE SURFACE HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT. FARTHER SE...WAA AND WEAK INSTABILITY BASED NEAR 700 MB COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NW GULF COAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER SPARSE IN BOTH OUTLOOK AREAS. ..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 03/22/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 22 16:27:33 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 22 Mar 2006 11:27:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060322163018.8FC46D4982@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221628 SWODY1 SPC AC 221626 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1026 AM CST WED MAR 22 2006 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE E FROM WRN NM THIS MORNING TO N TX/SRN OK OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES FROM 7 TO 8 C/KM TO THE S OF THIS WAVE...MAY PRODUCE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG THE NW GULF COAST...A BROAD ZONE OF WARM THETA-E ADVECTION AROUND 700-600 MB WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MUCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AROUND THE COASTAL BEND OF TEXAS. ELSEWHERE...STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE A THUNDERSTORM THREAT. ..GRAMS/HART.. 03/22/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 22 19:27:48 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 22 Mar 2006 14:27:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060322193029.265BBD4307@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221928 SWODY1 SPC AC 221926 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0126 PM CST WED MAR 22 2006 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... THE LAST IN A SERIES OF SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES...ASSOCIATED WITH A POLAR JET STREAK TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES...APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS TREND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE AS SYSTEM PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. BUT...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHEARING/EASTWARD ACCELERATION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ...SOUTHERN ROCKIES... OROGRAPHY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BENEATH COLD CORE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE...BUT THREAT SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH AS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHIFTS EAST OF THE HEATED HIGHER TERRAIN. ...WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST... LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM...DOWNSTREAM OF POLAR STREAM IMPULSE...IS SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS. CAPE BASED IN MOIST LAYER AROUND 700 MB...THROUGH FAVORABLE MIXED PHASE LAYER...HAS SUPPORTED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY DEVELOP WITH FORCING EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREAFTER...AS EASTWARD PROGRESSION CONTINUES INTO EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAYER WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED...WELL ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. THUS...WHILE LIGHT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION MAY PERSIST...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH. OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM LATER TODAY/TONIGHT IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME NEAR/EAST OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...WELL ABOVE LEADING EDGE OF LOW-LEVEL COLD INTRUSION NOSING THROUGH WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS. ...SOUTH FLORIDA... WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING AND MOISTENING IS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA...IN THE WAKE OF A SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE. THIS MAY WEAKEN INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THIS REGION REMAINS MOIST NEAR FRONTAL ZONE...AND STRONG HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO DESTABILIZATION. ACTIVITY APPEARS MOST LIKELY NEAR SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS...WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ..KERR.. 03/22/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 23 00:36:56 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 22 Mar 2006 19:36:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060323003937.D2E28D473F@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230037 SWODY1 SPC AC 230035 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 PM CST WED MAR 22 2006 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GULF COAST... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT FROM THE UPPER TX COAST ACROSS SRN LA/MS WHERE MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE. LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THIS ZONE...AND ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE...SHOULD INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SRN PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST. LATEST SOUNDING INFORMATION INDICATES CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ROOTED WELL ABOVE COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK CAPE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..CARBIN.. 03/23/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 23 05:35:45 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 23 Mar 2006 00:35:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060323053925.9E910D48EB@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230536 SWODY1 SPC AC 230534 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CST WED MAR 22 2006 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE SCNTRL U.S. ON THURSDAY AS A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW CROSSING THE SRN PLAINS...MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TOWARD THE SERN STATES. UPPER RIDGE SPREADING FROM THE INTERIOR WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL MAINTAIN SUBSIDENCE OVER THESE AREAS WHILE A COMPLEX ERN PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPS SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE WEST COAST THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD. IN THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES...A COMPONENT OF THE LARGE POLAR VORTEX THAT HAS DOMINATED ERN CANADA FOR THE PAST WEEK WILL ROTATE SWD AND SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AREA THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. ...SRN FL... LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING LOWER MS VALLEY UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WEAK FRONTAL WAVE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ALONG RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC FRONT RETURNING NWD OVER SRN FL. DESPITE RECENT CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS INTRUSION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MUCH OF NRN AND CNTRL FL...65-70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE TRANSPORTED NWD/EWD WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN INCREASINGLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL FL...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER SRN FL WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AS WEAK TO MODEST WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION LEADS TO SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. A SAMPLE OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/ETA INDICATED A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY EXIST ABOVE 700MB WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT STORM UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...MESOSCALE FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR RELATIVELY STRONG SHEAR AND STORM INFLOW COULD EVOLVE NEAR THE FRONT OR LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS. THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS BRIEF LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION WITH ONE OR TWO CELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TORNADO/WATERSPOUT PROBABILITIES CURRENTLY APPEAR QUITE LOW BUT POTENTIAL WILL BE NEED TO BE MONITORED LATER TODAY AS ADDITIONAL SOUNDINGS AND ANALYSES BECOME AVAILABLE. ..CARBIN.. 03/23/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 23 12:57:08 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 23 Mar 2006 07:57:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060323125955.3953CD46C1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231257 SWODY1 SPC AC 231256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 AM CST THU MAR 23 2006 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE ARKLATEX REGION THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE EWD OVER THE GULF STATES TODAY...REACHING THE SE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY FRIDAY. CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE W. ...S FL TODAY... A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE WAKE OF A PREVIOUS SYSTEM HAS STALLED INVOF THE FL STRAITS...WITH ELY FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE KEYS AND S FL. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE NW GULF AND ABOUT 100 MI WNW OF EYW NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY REACH THE W COAST OF FL LATER TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH THE STORMS SHOULD BE MUCH WEAKER AFTER MOVING E OF THE LOOP CURRENT IN THE ERN GULF. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM KEY WEST AND MIAMI BOTH SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 F...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR /AROUND 6 C/KM/...AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK ACROSS S FL. WHILE A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY SOME MARGINAL SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS THIS AFTERNOON /NAMELY INVOF WEAK SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY ALONG SE FL COAST/...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LOW. ..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 03/23/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 23 16:21:04 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 23 Mar 2006 11:21:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060323162344.E12AED46FF@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231619 SWODY1 SPC AC 231618 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 AM CST THU MAR 23 2006 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH STRONG VORT MAX MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS AR. LARGE/DRY SURFACE RIDGE AND NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL SUPPRESS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST REGIONS. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. ...SOUTH FL... WEAK SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS ACROSS THE FL STRAITS...AND WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FL TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND POTENTIALLY AFFECT SOUTH FL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FL COAST NEAR MIA BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW THAT THE MID LEVEL INVERSION INDICATED ON 12Z RAOBS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS DAYTIME HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT OCCUR. THUS...AMPLE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR MAY DEVELOP...ENHANCING THE RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. ..HART/GRAMS.. 03/23/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 23 18:57:51 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 23 Mar 2006 13:57:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060323190026.F0BE4D4478@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231858 SWODY1 SPC AC 231856 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 PM CST THU MAR 23 2006 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA.... ...FLORIDA... SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN STRONGER POLAR STREAM IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHEARED IN CONFLUENT REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...BUT STRONGER FORCING APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER... IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM...WHICH CONTRIBUTED TO LARGE OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...NOW APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG QUASI STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WHICH EXTENDS EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA...WHERE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND BOUNDARY LAYER BASED MOISTURE RETURN IS ONGOING. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE RISING THROUGH THE LOWER/MID 60S...AND MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED 1000 J/KG WITH FURTHER HEATING. BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW...WEAK BUT VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL APPEARS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS NEXT FEW HOURS...AND HODOGRAPHS ALONG SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS...WHERE SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN A STRONGER EASTERLY COMPONENT...COULD SUPPORT A TORNADO. OTHERWISE...EXPECTED INITIATION OF WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PROVIDES POTENTIAL FOR EVOLUTION OF LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. IF THIS OCCURS...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE AS DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ENHANCES EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS. ..KERR.. 03/23/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 24 00:44:23 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 23 Mar 2006 19:44:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060324004700.0563BD46FF@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240044 SWODY1 SPC AC 240043 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0643 PM CST THU MAR 23 2006 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN FL AND SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS ACROSS FL SUGGESTS WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH DECAYING MCS AND NUMEROUS MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS SRN/SERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AS IT TRACKS NEWD OVER THE ATLANTIC AND DEVELOPMENT IS ENHANCED BY STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE NCNTRL GULF COAST. AS THE LOW MOVES NEWD AND DEEPENS EAST OF GA/SC THROUGH TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWD ACROSS FL AND INTO THE FL STRAITS BY FRIDAY MORNING. PLUME OF MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRANSPORTED NEWD FROM THE ERN GULF ACROSS SRN FL TONIGHT ON DEEP WSWLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES... AND LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT...COULD STILL PROMOTE SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. WHILE A STRONG STORM OR TWO COULD STILL OCCUR GIVEN BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND RELATIVELY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...RECENT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAKENING LAPSE RATES AND DIURNAL COOLING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DIMINISHING SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. ..CARBIN.. 03/24/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 24 12:54:07 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 24 Mar 2006 07:54:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060324125641.9BEF4D4478@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241254 SWODY1 SPC AC 241253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 AM CST FRI MAR 24 2006 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS NOAM THIS PERIOD. WRN MEMBER OF BLOCK...UPR LOW NOW CENTERED OFF THE BC COAST...LIKELY WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ROTATE ABOUT IT. LEAD IMPULSE NOW OFF THE WA COAST SHOULD MOVE N/NE ACROSS WRN WA BY LATE TODAY BEFORE CONTINUING N INTO BC TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE NOW NEAR 44N/140W SHOULD CONTINUE E/SE TO JUST OFF THE NRN CA COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. ...NW U.S... NW/SE-ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD UPR DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NNE ACROSS NW ORE/WRN WA LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MID LEVEL COOLING...COUPLED WITH MODEST SURFACE HEATING/OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT...MAY YIELD A BAND OR TWO OF THUNDER ALONG THE CASCADES AND EWD INTO THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN. MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY FORM DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON E INTO THE WA DESERTS. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH...BUT STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE TO STRONG MEAN FLOW MAY YIELD SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN SOME CELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/WEAKEN BY THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT LIFTS N INTO CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY APPROACH THE ORE/FAR NRN CA COAST AS NEXT AND POSSIBLY STRONGER IMPULSE NEARS REGION. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 03/24/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 24 16:31:32 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 24 Mar 2006 11:31:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060324163406.8F65FD4A83@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241628 SWODY1 SPC AC 241627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 AM CST FRI MAR 24 2006 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION... UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND LARGE UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY SE OUT OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THIS LOW AS WELL AS APPROACHING VORT MAX AND PATCHY SUNSHINE MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY. TO THE WEST...A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS WA AND OREGON WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TOO LOW FOR SEVERE PROBABILITIES...ALTHOUGH SMALL/SUB-SEVERE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS GIVEN VERY COLD AIR ALOFT. OVERNIGHT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OFF THE NRN CA COAST AS STRONG UPPER LOW AND JET MAX NOSE INTO THE AREA. ..JEWELL/HALES.. 03/24/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 24 19:40:02 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 24 Mar 2006 14:40:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060324194235.BFA8BD4478@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241940 SWODY1 SPC AC 241939 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 PM CST FRI MAR 24 2006 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WESTERN STATES... SEVERAL IMPULSES ARE READILY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ROTATING THROUGH A BROAD MID/UPPER CIRCULATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE...BUT SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF WASHINGTON/OREGON. WARMING ALOFT IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN OREGON IN WAKE OF IMPULSE...AND AHEAD OF A MORE VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. LATTER FEATURE IS STILL WELL WEST OF COAST AREAS...BUT STRONG FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHWEST OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS TOWARD 12Z SATURDAY. WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY UNDERWAY WHERE MID-LEVELS REMAIN COLD. WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING... DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCE SEEMS TO BE WEST OF THE CASCADES...WHERE MOIST UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW/OROGRAPHY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FORCING...BUT WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM NORTH CENTRAL/ NORTHEAST OREGON INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER DARK... BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD APPROACH SOUTHERN OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. ...EASTERN STATES... A COLD SURFACE RIDGE ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...A WEAKNESS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AS A COLD CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS IS OCCURRING ALONG A MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AXIS...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO VERY WEAK SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE RATHER SHALLOW NATURE OF CONVECTION...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXED PHASE LAYER IS RATHER LOW TO THE GROUND...AND IN CAPE BEARING LAYER...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 03/24/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 25 00:38:46 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 24 Mar 2006 19:38:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060325004118.7E238D45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250039 SWODY1 SPC AC 250037 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 PM CST FRI MAR 24 2006 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD CORE LOWS PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...AND OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH WEAK DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION HAVING OCCURRED NEAR THESE FEATURES TODAY. MOST CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DIMINISH WITH THE ONSET OF DARKNESS. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT PACIFIC IMPULSE WAS ALREADY EVIDENT AS BAROCLINIC CLOUD BAND DEVELOPS ACROSS WRN ORE. GIVEN THE FORECAST OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND LOW STATIC STABILITY ACCOMPANYING THIS DISTURBANCE ACROSS NRN CA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...A FEW TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH 25/12Z. ..CARBIN.. 03/25/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 25 05:37:20 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 25 Mar 2006 00:37:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060325054045.912FCD42B0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250537 SWODY1 SPC AC 250535 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 PM CST FRI MAR 24 2006 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEVADA...SOUTHERN IDAHO...AND NORTHWEST UTAH... ...SYNOPSIS... MORE ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE WRN STATES THIS PERIOD AS SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DEVELOPS INLAND FROM THE ERN PACIFIC...ACROSS NRN CA TODAY...AND THEN OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE... EXTENSIVE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE ROCKIES NWD TO CNTRL CANADA WILL TRANSLATE GRADUALLY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WRN GREAT LAKES AREAS WHILE OH VALLEY COLD CORE LOW DRIFTS SEWD OVER THE APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC. WHILE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE BENEATH THE COLD CORE LOW IN THE EAST...LARGER TSTM AREA AND MORE LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THE STRONG SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE WEST. ...NRN CA... PRONOUNCED COOLING ALOFT AND STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND 90-100KT MID LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS NRN CA COAST ON SATURDAY MORNING. FOCUSED ASCENT ALONG EWD ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE MAY SUPPORT A LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE DAY. DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING BENEATH MID LEVEL DRY SLOT COULD LOCALLY BOOST MUCAPE VALUES TO NEAR 500 J/KG IN THE NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED SSELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THIS AREA WILL BE TOPPED BY 40-50KT WLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS TO RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION TO BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...A FEW SEVERE HAIL EVENTS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE UNTIL INSTABILITY AND STORMS WANE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. ...NRN GREAT BASIN... MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OF 90-120M PER 12H WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE THROUGH THE MORNING AND DRIVE A STRONG FRONTAL BAND EAST INTO NRN NEVADA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS VERY GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A LOW-TOPPED SQUALL LINE WILL FORM ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT...FROM SWRN ID TO CNTRL NV...BY 21Z. INSTABILITY WITHIN AND AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK DUE TO COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...A DRY AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP CONVECTIVE COLD POOL ALONG THE ADVANCING LINE OF FORCED ASCENT. INCREASINGLY STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL LEAD TO RAPID COLD POOL MOTION AND EXPECT OCCASIONALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE AS IT SPREAD EAST ACROSS NRN NV AND NWRN UT FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 03/25/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 25 13:00:45 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 25 Mar 2006 08:00:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060325130313.B146DD49BE@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251301 SWODY1 SPC AC 251258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST SAT MAR 25 2006 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NRN AND CNTRL CA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN GRT BASIN... ...SYNOPSIS... SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW POTENT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW NEAR 41N/128W UNDERCUTTING BROADER ERN GULF OF AK TROUGH. THE IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN CA TODAY BEFORE CONTINUING E ACROSS THE NRN GRT BASIN LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...AND REACHING WRN WY EARLY SUNDAY. AT LOWER LEVELS...ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW APPROX 175 MILES WNW OF EUREKA SHOULD REFORM E OF THE NRN SIERRA LATER TODAY...AND MOVE INTO THE SNAKE RVR VLY THIS EVENING. IN THE EAST...MAIN COLD POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH OH VLY UPR LOW APPEARS TO BE ENTERING SRN WV ATTM. THE COLD POCKET SHOULD SHIFT E TO OFF THE DELMARVA CST BY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW ITSELF TRACKS E ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER. ...NRN/CNTRL CA... COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF CA LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT MAY YIELD LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH FEW SPOTS OF THUNDER ALONG FRONTAL BAND AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL TO BELOW MINUS 25C. COUPLED WITH 90-100KT MID LEVEL JET...THE CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. IN THE WAKE OF MAIN COLD FRONT...CURRENT SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST THAT A SECONDARY AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS LIKELY WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SAME REGION LATER IN THE DAY. SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS FRONTOGENETIC AREA BY AFTERNOON...WHERE POCKETS OF MODERATE SURFACE HEATING /MARCH SUN/ WILL BE AUGMENTED BY CONTINUED MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...CURRENT DATA SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE RECYCLED FROM PREFRONTAL RAIN WILL MAINTAIN AVERAGE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50. THESE FACTORS MAY BOOST SBCAPE LOCALLY TO NEAR 1000 J/KG OVER PARTS OF THE NRN SACRAMENTO VLY...WITH VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG LIKELY ALONG THE NRN CA CST. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONTOGENETIC BAND. THE MAIN MID LEVEL JET AXIS WILL SHIFT S OF THE MOST CONVECTIVELY- FAVORED AREA IN CA BY MIDDAY. BUT SUFFICIENT /50 KT/ WLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AT MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF CA AS UPR TROUGH CONTINUES INLAND. AT THE SAME TIME...EXPECTED TRACK OF SURFACE LOW LIKELY WILL MAINTAIN AN OROGRAPHICALLY-INDUCED SLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE NRN SACRAMENTO VLY. THUS...SETUP COULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH LOW LEVEL ROTATION AND TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HAIL. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNSET AS THE LOWER LEVELS COOL AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO REBOUND ALOFT. ...NRN GREAT BASIN... 120M 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS WILL CROSS THE NRN SIERRA AND NRN GRT BASIN LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS UPR TROUGH CONTINUES EWD. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN STRENGTH OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING NRN CA AS IT REDEVELOPS E OF THE SIERRA BY MIDDAY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF UPR IMPULSE WILL...HOWEVER...LIKELY MAINTAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER/POSSIBLE SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT WHICH WILL PRECLUDE STRONG LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF IT. NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF STRONG /60+ KT SW FLOW AT 500 MB/ BACKGROUND WIND FIELD WITH ADVANCING BAND OF FORCED ASCENT MAY YIELD A LINE OF CONVECTION/POSSIBLE THUNDER WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND ACROSS NRN NV/NW UT AND THE SNAKE RVR VLY OF ID FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ...SRN WV TO ATLANTIC CST... SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION/ISOLATED THUNDER EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY MID LEVEL COLD POCKET TRACKING E TOWARD THE TIDEWATER REGION LATER TODAY. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 03/25/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 25 16:31:25 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 25 Mar 2006 11:31:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060325163353.7B756D46CC@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251630 SWODY1 SPC AC 251629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST SAT MAR 25 2006 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF NRN AND CENTRAL CA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN NV ..SRN ID AND NWRN UT... SYNOPSIS VIGOROUS TROUGH/VORT MAX APPROACHING NRN CA/SRN OR BORDER AREA ATTM AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD REACHING SERN OR/NV BORDER AREA BY 00Z AND INTO WRN WY BY 12Z SUN. COLD FRONT AT 16Z CROSSING NRN/CENTRAL SIERRAS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NRN NV. 80-90KT 500MB JET NOW MOVING INLAND CENTRAL CA WILL SHIFT EWD INTO CENTRAL NV DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG ASCENT SPREADING EWD TO N OF JET AND AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. ...NRN/CENTRAL CA... STRONG MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION NOW SPREADING ACROSS NRN CA SWD TO AROUND 38N OR VICINITY SFO AREA IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WEST OF SIERRAS WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR POTENTIAL OF LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS THRU THE AFTERNOON OR UNTIL UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSES THE AREA. TYPICALLY IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN THE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR AS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOW/MID 40S IN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS. HOWEVER WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MUCAPES AS HIGH AS 500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE INCREASING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL OF A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS. MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO BE E SIDE OF SAC VALLEY WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND BRIEF TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER 00Z AS VEERING FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE OCCURS IN WAKE OF TROUGH MOVING E OF AREA. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING NRN NV WILL INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY DEVELOPS. VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION AS VIGOROUS TROUGH AND MID LEVEL JET DRIVES EWD ACROSS NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT WILL LIKELY PUSH GRADIENT SURFACE WINDS IN GUSTS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED THE STRONG ASCENT WITH THE COLD FRONT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITH THE FROPA. THUS COMBINATION OF GRADIENT AND CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTION WILL PUSH GUSTS TO POTENTIALLY ABOVE 50KTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS NRN NV AND ADJACENT BORDER AREAS OF ID THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO SERN ID AND NRN UT AFTER OOZ. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 03/25/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 25 19:52:28 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 25 Mar 2006 14:52:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060325195454.D5A1AD487F@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251953 SWODY1 SPC AC 251951 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CST SAT MAR 25 2006 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN OREGON INTO NRN NV/SRN ID/NWRN UT... ...NRN CA EWD ACROSS NRN NV/SERN ORE/SRN ID/NWRN UT... STRONG UPPER CIRCULATION NOW MOVING INTO NRN CA/SWRN ORE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS DRY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 30S. HOWEVER...LIMITED HEATING BENEATH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-28 TO -30 C AT H5 WITHIN COLD POOL/ IS CONTRIBUTING TO MINIMAL INSTABILITY -- CONFIRMED BY SCATTERED LIGHTNING STRIKES NOW OCCURRING FROM SERN ORE SWD INTO NWRN NV. STRONG /50 TO 70 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF UPPER CIRCULATION. ALONG WITH STRONG NON-CONVECTIVE WINDS -- PARTICULARLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SEVERE CONVECTIVE GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH LOOSELY-ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG COLD FRONT. GREATEST CONVECTIVE WIND THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS NRN NV AND INTO SERN ORE/SRN ID THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH THIS THREAT WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...STRONG/MAINLY NON-CONVECTIVE WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN UT TOWARD WRN WY/WRN CO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 03/25/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 26 00:27:53 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 25 Mar 2006 19:27:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060326003020.B3CD1D487F@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260028 SWODY1 SPC AC 260026 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0626 PM CST SAT MAR 25 2006 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE ASSOCIATED FRONT EARLIER ACROSS SWRN ID AND NCNTRL NV CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD. 00Z LKN/SLC RAOBS SHOW MEAGER INSTABILITY...BUT A SUBSTANTIAL DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THE FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. STRONG AMBIENT FLOW...DRY SUB-CLOUD ENVIRONMENT AND PRESENCE OF ONGOING CONVECTION WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLD THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS. HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE RVR VLY SWD INTO NRN UT THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. ..RACY.. 03/26/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 26 05:27:49 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 26 Mar 2006 00:27:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060326053013.E57FAD46FF@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260528 SWODY1 SPC AC 260526 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 PM CST SAT MAR 25 2006 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..sYNOPSIS... UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FEATURE A STRONG TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...LOW/MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE CNTRL HI PLAINS EARLY IN THE PD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER IMPULSE. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z MON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE CORN BELT. ...CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES... STRONG DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES THROUGH PEAK HEATING SUNDAY. THOUGH MSTR WILL BE LIMITED...STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AMIDST THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SHORT-LIVED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CO NWD INTO WY. ...CNTRL PLAINS... RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A NARROW RIBBON OF MODIFIED GULF MSTR NWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY EVE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH-LEVEL CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION/ELEVATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER DARK ACROSS CNTRL/ERN KS...NRN OK NEWD INTO MO. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE COLUMN WILL BEGIN TO SATURATE IN THE H85-H7 LAYER AFTER ABOUT 03Z AS STRONGER ASCENT SPREADS EWD. PARCELS SHOULD REACH THEIR LFC ACROSS CNTRL/ERN KS AND NRN OK LATE SUNDAY EVE...WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING NEWD INTO NRN/WRN MO BY 12Z MON ALONG THE NOSE OF THE 50-KT LLJ. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL OWING TO MEAGER MSTR RETURN/ELEVATED BUOYANCY. ..RACY/TAYLOR.. 03/26/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 26 12:59:22 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 26 Mar 2006 07:59:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060326130146.53E9DD46FF@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261259 SWODY1 SPC AC 261257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 AM CST SUN MAR 26 2006 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW PASSING KSLC WILL CONTINUE E INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE THIS EVENING BEFORE REACHING THE NEB/IA BORDER BY 12Z MONDAY. THE SYSTEM MAY AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE PERIOD AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE CNTRL RCKYS SWEEPS SE INTO THE LWR MO VLY AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. ...CNTRL/NRN RCKYS... STRONG DPVA AND MID LEVEL COOLING WILL SPREAD E ACROSS WY AND NRN CO TODAY. COUPLED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN... SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION/STORMS... DESPITE LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS BUT SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY BY EVENING AS UPR TROUGH CONTINUES EWD AND LOWER LEVELS COOL. ...CNTRL PLNS/LWR MO VLY... SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN CNTRL NEB AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPR TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND DEPTH TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS/MID LEVEL COOLING OVERSPREAD EXIT REGION OF SWLY LLJ. THE INFLOW AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MODIFIED POLAR IN ORIGIN. BUT STRONG/SUSTAINED LIFT AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD SCATTERED EMBEDDED STORMS ACROSS ERN NEB/CNTRL KS EWD INTO MUCH OF MO...AND POSSIBLY NE OK/NW AR. WITH ELEVATED CAPE REMAINING LIMITED BY MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN...SEVERE STORMS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 03/26/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 26 16:30:05 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 26 Mar 2006 11:30:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060326163228.A6D40D4573@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261629 SWODY1 SPC AC 261628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 AM CST SUN MAR 26 2006 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...DISCUSSION... MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE COMPACT BUT INTENSE UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF WY/CO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS ERN WY AND NRN CO NEAR THE FRONT AND GIVEN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE. IT IS NOT UNTIL THIS EVENING THAT THERE WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF KS/WRN MO/NRN OK. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EWD FROM WRN NEB/KS AT 00Z INTO WRN MO/CNTRL OK BY 12Z MON. AS THE UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE MOVES E...LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AND BRING MOISTURE NWD INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE...WHERE MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE PRESENT. THUS...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY AFTER 00Z. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TOO LOW FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE. ..JEWELL.. 03/26/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 26 20:06:00 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 26 Mar 2006 15:06:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060326200821.5212AD46DE@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 262006 SWODY1 SPC AC 262004 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CST SUN MAR 26 2006 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING WY/CO WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/TROUGH WILL LIKEWISE DRIFT EWD INTO THE PLAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTER DARK. ...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY AND VICINITY... APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH 50 KT SLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPING THIS EVENING SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK AND VICINITY AFTER DARK. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...AND THEN SHIFT EWD INTO PARTS OF MO AND VICINITY AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS OVERNIGHT. LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS. ..GOSS.. 03/26/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 27 00:38:35 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 26 Mar 2006 19:38:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1 Message-ID: <20060327004056.D8503D46CC@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270038 SWODY1 SPC AC 270037 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 PM CST SUN MAR 26 2006 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL PLAINS... VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH EMERGING ONTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EWD TONIGHT. STRONG SLY LLJ AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE HAS ADVECTED A NARROW RIBBON OF MODIFIED CP AIR MASS NWD INTO WRN OK AND CNTRL KS. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM DODGE CITY AND NORMAN...HOWEVER...SHOW THAT THE MEAGER MSTR ADVECTION ALONE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTION. BUT...AS STRONG DPVA AND COOLING ALOFT SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN KS AND NERN OK THIS EVE...THE COLUMN WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE FOR AN ELEVATED TSTM RISK. THIS RISK WILL SPREAD INTO MO AND NWRN AR 09-12Z. BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND NO SEVERE TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED. ..RACY.. 03/27/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 31 05:46:46 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 31 Mar 2006 00:46:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 310547 SWODY1 SPC AC 310546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO NERN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH WELL DEFINED MS VALLEY TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AHEAD OF SFC WIND SHIFT WITH TWO CONVECTIVE EPISODES POSSIBLE. LATE THIS EVENING MULTIPLE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINES HAVE PROGRESSED ACROSS IA/MO INTO IL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE EWD INTO INCREASINGLY HOSTILE BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS OVER THE OH VALLEY WHERE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE GRADUAL WEAKENING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS CONVECTION...A NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITHIN VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM SRN IL INTO SERN LOWER MI. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED...IT APPEARS STRONG HEATING MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. IF SO...ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FORECAST DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. FARTHER SOUTH...SUSTAINED MOISTENING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG TRAILING PORTIONS OF SFC FRONT. THURSDAY NIGHT CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE DAY1 FRIDAY...HOWEVER GRADUAL REINTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS FROM SRN AR INTO MIDDLE TN. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...ORGANIZED BANDS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL FROM EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM ADVECTION ATOP SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONT MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SERN OK. IF THIS EVOLVES...SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE LLJ MAY NOT STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE...STRONG HEATING ALONG WIND SHIFT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TX MAY AID WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING. CONVERGENCE/LIFT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK TO WARRANT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME. ..DARROW/GRAMS.. 03/31/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 31 12:48:09 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 31 Mar 2006 07:48:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 311249 SWODY1 SPC AC 311248 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 AM CST FRI MAR 31 2006 VALID 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID SOUTH/NERN TX... ...OH RIVER VALLEY NWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES... WELL-DEFINED UPPER SYSTEM NOW EJECTING ACROSS THE NRN/MID MS RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TRAILS SSWWD FROM LOW CENTER OVER MN INTO SERN MO AND INTO SERN OK EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED 10-15F ACROSS MUCH OF IND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/OH RIVER VALLEY...WITH 50+F SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WEAKENED OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY NNEWD INTO MI AS ACTIVITY PROGRESSED EAST OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY REMAINING NEAR THE MID MS/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS. HOWEVER...RECENT INCREASING TRENDS OVER SWRN IL INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING FROM THE MID SOUTH EWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL KY AND FAR SRN IND. SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY UNDER BROAD ZONE OF 50+ KT WLY H5 WINDS. ALONG WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EWD EARLY TODAY. MORE VIGOROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT FROM SRN LOWER MI ACROSS IND...WHERE OVERNIGHT MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN REDEVELOPING CONVECTION AROUND 21Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED LINES/SUPERCELLS WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINING QUITE STRONG DESPITE A SWLY DIRECTION TO THE SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE WILL DEVELOP INTO CENTRAL IND...WITH 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE INTO SERN LOWER MI BY 21Z. THUS THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS OH AND TOWARDS THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MID/LATE EVENING. ...MID SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NERN TX... SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL OR MOVE ONLY SLOWLY SSEWD ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF IT. THOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SHIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THIS REGION...LARGE RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL TX INTO NRN LA/SRN AR. IN ADDITION...REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER 40-50 KT WLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS PROVIDING 40+ KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR TODAY. EXPECT AREAS OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINES. LATER TONIGHT...INCREASING SSWLY H85 FLOW SHOULD FOCUS ELEVATED STORMS WITH THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL INTO PORTIONS OF ERN OK/AR INTO WRN TN/NWRN MS. ...NRN CA... PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW JUST OFF THE NRN CA/SWRN ORE COAST WILL SHIFT SLOWLY ESEWD ACROSS NRN CA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WINDS ALOFT WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG WITH 50+ KT SSWLY H5 WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF CA. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY BY 22Z. THUS...ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CORES. ..EVANS/RACY.. 03/31/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 31 16:39:43 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 31 Mar 2006 11:39:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 311640 SWODY1 SPC AC 311639 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1039 AM CST FRI MAR 31 2006 VALID 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID SOUTH/NERN TX... ...OH VALLEY NWD INTO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES... UPPER SYSTEM NOW LOCATED OVER THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. BAND OF 60+ KT WSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL EXTEND ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT TRAILED SSWWD FROM SURFACE LOW OVER NRN WI THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY INTO CENTRAL OK TO NW TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SPREAD EAST AND SOUTH TODAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... REACHING NY AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SWWD TO THE TN RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY. A NARROW AXIS OF UPPER 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAD ADVECTED INTO ERN IL TO CENTRAL IND THIS MORNING WITH 50+ VALUES EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO SRN LOWER MI AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD WITHIN ZONE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA. GENERALLY WEAK TO MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT SEVERE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF SRN LOWER MI SWD ACROSS LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...POTENTIALLY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THIS REGION. PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7+ C/KM/ WILL SPREAD EWD WITH UPPER TROUGH AND ATOP MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL LEVELS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COMBINED WITH INSOLATION IN WAKE OF MORNING CLOUDINESS/CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED MORE NORMAL TO THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT BOTH ORGANIZED LINES/SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES REMAIN QUITE STRONG FOR A TORNADO THREAT. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS OH AND TOWARDS THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MID/LATE EVENING. ...MID SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND PART OF SRN PLAINS... THE SRN EXTENT OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SSEWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND AR...STALLING LATER TODAY. SOMEWHAT MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR STORM COVERAGE FROM THE MID SOUTH SWD GIVEN RISING HEIGHTS/WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...50+ WLY MID LEVEL WINDS LOCATED ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY STORM SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. LOW-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN TODAY WITH MID/UPPER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG/ FROM NERN TX TO MS. LATER TONIGHT...INCREASING SSWLY H85 FLOW SHOULD FOCUS ELEVATED STORMS WITH THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL INTO PORTIONS OF ERN OK/AR INTO WRN TN/NWRN MS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE SUPPORTED BY A WEAK SRN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED ACROSS NWRN/WRN MEXICO...APPROACHING THE SRN PLAINS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...NRN CA... PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW JUST OFF THE NRN CA/SWRN ORE COAST WILL SHIFT SLOWLY ESEWD ACROSS NRN CA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WINDS ALOFT WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG WITH 50+ KT SSWLY H5 WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF CA. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY BY 22Z. THUS... ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CORES. ..PETERS/JEWELL.. 03/31/2006  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 31 20:04:55 2006 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 31 Mar 2006 15:04:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 312005 SWODY1 SPC AC 312003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0203 PM CST FRI MAR 31 2006 VALID 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID SOUTH AND ARKLATEX... ...SRN GREAT LAKES INTO OH VALLEY... STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE 50S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO DESTABILIZATION OF PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS /SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG/ THIS AFTERNOON FROM SWRN LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH WRN IND/ERN IL TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS. SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT COUPLED WITH ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NOW OVER WI WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITHIN THIS INSTABILITY AXIS. CURRENT VAD AND PROFILER DATA IN ADDITION TO RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2. GIVEN ANTICIPATED FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AND THIS SHEAR...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY THIS EVENING...PRIOR TO WEAKENING LATER TONIGHT AS AIR MASS SLOWLY STABILIZES. ...MID SOUTH INTO ARKLATEX... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MESOANALYSIS INDICATE THAT WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN MO THROUGH NRN AR INTO SERN OK. MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S/ CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DIABATIC HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A WEAKLY CAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE /SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ AIR MASS OVER THE WRN TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DIAGNOSTICS SUGGEST THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK --PERHAPS EVEN SUBSIDENT-- THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. NONETHELESS...THE WEAK CAPPING AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS FREE WARM SECTOR NWD TO FRONTAL ZONE. PRESENCE OF 40-50 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER MIDWEST LOW IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH LATE EVENING. A BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...GIVEN MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /PER OKOLONA MS PROFILER/. ...RED RIVER VALLEY... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASE ALONG AND N OF SURFACE FRONT. STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE NWD-RETURNING MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH THE BUOYANCY LAYER...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ...NRN CA... CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA SHOW PRIMARY FRONTAL CLOUD BAND FROM NWRN CA SWWD INTO THE ERN PACIFIC. WITH ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF SURFACE FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE OWING TO COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OWING TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. ...CNTRL TX... VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT AIR MASS IS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH A WEAKENING CAP ALONG A LOOSELY-DEFINED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE ACROSS REGION. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS INTO THIS EVENING. ..MEAD.. 03/31/2006