[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 261251
SWODY1
SPC AC 261250

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2006

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR OH VLY INTO THE TN
VLY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLNS/UPR
MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
ANOMALOUS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.  SATELLITE LOOPS
SHOW WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUING TO DROP S/SW INTO MID MS VLY UPR
LOW...SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW SHOULD AMPLIFY SSEWD TODAY AS NRN
STREAM SYSTEM NOW ENTERING WRN MANITOBA CONTINUES SE INTO WRN
ONTARIO/NW MN. DEEP SLY FLOW BETWEEN MS VLY LOW AND
STRONGER-THAN-NORMAL N ATLANTIC RIDGE SHOULD ACCELERATE DISTURBANCE
NOW NEAR THE BAHAMAS N TOWARD THE CAROLINA CST TONIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY.

DESPITE AMPLIFIED PATTERN...SFC FEATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. 
WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVANCE VERY SLOWLY W/NW ACROSS THE
CNTRL/NRN APLCNS...WHILE DIFFUSE COLD FRONT EXTENDING S/SW FROM WEAK
LOW IN SE IL CONTINUES E/SEWD. WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MANITOBA
IMPULSE...NOW LOCATED N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...EXPECTED TO SETTLE
SE ACROSS MN AND THE ERN DAKOTAS LATER IN THE DAY.

...LWR OH/TN VLYS...
A SETUP SIMILAR TO THAT WHICH AFFECTED THE MID MS VLY YESTERDAY WILL
PREVAIL FROM SW MI INTO PARTS OF IL/IND/WRN KY/TN AND PERHAPS NRN MS
TODAY AS UPR LOW SETTLES S/SE TOWARD REGION.  SURFACE HEATING OF
WEAKLY CONVERGENT AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF VORT LOBE
MOVING E FROM MO SHOULD FOSTER STORM INITIATION INVOF WEAK LOW/FRONT
OVER IL BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  DEVELOPMENT SHOULD THEN EXPAND SWD AND
EWD ALONG FRONT.  ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY FORM IN POCKETS OF
RE-DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IN WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS AS
COOLING ALOFT SPREADS SEWD.  RELATIVELY WEAK/VARIABLE WIND PROFILES
SUGGEST PREDOMINANT STORM MODE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR...WITH WEAK
ORGANIZATION INTO CLUSTERS/BANDS.  THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COULD
PROMOTE SCATTERED HAIL AND STRONG WIND EVENTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.


...ERN DAKOTAS/NRN AND WRN MN...
COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING SWD WITH AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WILL
YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 1500 J PER KG/ WRN/NRN MN AND
THE ERN DAKOTAS LATER TODAY.  COUPLED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
FRONT AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MANITOBA UPR
SYSTEM...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STRONG TO 
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.  LOW LEVEL WINDS
LIKELY WILL REMAIN WEAK.  BUT 30+ KT DEEP NNWLY SHEAR WITH
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A
FEW SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND.  ASSUMING THE PRESENCE
OF DISCRETE STORMS AND FAVORABLE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT FORECAST WIND PROFILES APPEAR SIMILAR TO THOSE THAT WERE
PRESENT DURING ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO/FUNNEL EVENTS THAT HAVE
OCCURRED OVER THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY WITH SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUPS
IN THE PAST WEEK.

...CAROLINAS TO MID ATLANTIC STATES...
DEEP...VERY MOIST UNIDIRECTIONAL SLY FLOW WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
QUASI-STATIONARY BANDS OF BACK-BUILDING CONVECTION/STORMS TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE CAROLINAS N INTO PA/NJ/NY.  THE MOST
SERIOUS THREAT POSED WILL BE FLOODING...BUT A LOW PROBABILITY WILL
ALSO EXIST FOR TORNADOES.  THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST BOTH
ALONG AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM S SCNTRL PA/CNTRL
MD SSW INTO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT...AND ALONG WARM SECTOR CONVECTIVE
BANDS DEVELOPING WITH SFC HEATING.  WHILE ANY SUCH THREAT SHOULD BE
MAINLY DIURNAL...EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF 925-850 MB FLOW THIS
EVENING FROM VA NWD INTO MD/PA SUGGESTS THAT A LIMITED POTENTIAL MAY
PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT.  FARTHER S...THE THREAT MAY ALSO INCREASE
LATE IN THE PERIOD ALONG THE SC/SRN NC CSTL PLN AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING
BAHAMAS DISTURBANCE.

...ERN/SRN AZ/NM/SRN CO...
WEAK N/NELY MID LEVEL FLOW ON FRINGE OF GRT BASIN UPR RIDGE WILL
FAVOR S/SW PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NM/ERN AZ LATER TODAY.  BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS INCREASED
SOMEWHAT RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS AND THUS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY
CONTINUE TO INCREASE.  SOME OF THE STORMS MAY YIELD STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS THE GUST FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE LWR DESERTS.  BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND EXPECTED
STORM ORGANIZATION APPEAR TOO LIMITED ATTM TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.

..CORFIDI/GRAMS.. 06/26/2006