[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 231616
SWODY1
SPC AC 231614

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VALLEY ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE
NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...MID ATLANTIC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...
LOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST AHEAD OF PRIMARY SURFACE COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ME SSWWD INTO SRN NY AND CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.  WARM SECTOR REMAINS OVERLAID WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS...WHICH MAY COMPLICATE OVERALL SCENARIO THIS
AFTERNOON.  ONE SUCH BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS ERN MD INTO
CENTRAL VA IS FOCUSING A FEW STRONGER STORMS LATE THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF N-S ORIENTED FEATURE SPREADING QUICKLY EWD TOWARDS THE
CHESAPEAKE.  THOUGH AIR MASS IS ALREADY UNSTABLE...MLCAPE FROM
1500-2500 J/KG INTO SERN VA...DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON AREA VWP/S AND
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL REMAIN QUITE MARGINAL WITH SFC-6 KM
SHEAR AROUND 20 KT.  THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT FROM NRN MD INTO
PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND AS AFTERNOON HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE INTO
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE.  ACROSS THIS REGION...SHEAR WILL BE QUITE
A BIT STRONGER UNDER 30-40 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR CLOSE TO 40 KT WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO...WITH
PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS
ACTIVITY QUICKLY SPREADS TOWARDS THE COAST.

...TN VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STALLED FROM ERN OH INTO NRN KY
TODAY WITH AIR MASS BECOMING MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE TO ITS
SOUTH. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAIN IN PLACE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...THE MOST PROMINENT OF WHICH IS PUSHING
QUICKLY EWD INTO NRN AL AND MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING.  AS CAP WEAKENS
AND HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE...STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY ACROSS A LARGE AREA BY THE MID AFTERNOON.  MUCH OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT AND
LEAVE REGION WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAKLY-SHEARED REGIME.  GIVEN DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STORMS MAY BE
PRONE TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL BY THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER DARK.

...NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SSELY SURFACE WINDS AND PERSISTENT LOWER TO MID 50F SURFACE DEW
POINTS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THREAT AGAIN TODAY FROM PORTIONS OF SERN
MT ESEWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL SD/NEB.  WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS APPEAR TO
BE SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS WRN SD AND SWRN MT THIS MORNING.  TRAILING
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS SERN MT/NERN WY/WRN SD DURING PEAK
HEATING WHERE MLCAPE WILL APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY 21Z.  OTHER STORMS
MAY INCREASE ACROSS WRN NEB DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN 35-45
KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZATION INTO SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOW
ECHOES IS LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL WIND DAMAGE AND VERY LARGE HAIL. 
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO A MCS AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG
NOSE OF 30 KT SSWLY LLJ ACROSS CENTRAL NEB/SD. LARGE HAIL MAY
BECOME PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH POTENTIAL BOW ECHO MCS COULD
SUSTAIN WIND DAMAGE THREAT WELL AFTER DARK.

..EVANS/GUYER.. 06/23/2006