[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 230101
SWODY1
SPC AC 230059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN NEW ENGLAND ALONG OH VALLEY
TO NWRN TN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN CHARACTERIZES MID/UPPER LEVELS ACROSS
MOST OF N HALF OF CONUS...WITH SOME CYCLONIC FLOW OVER GREAT LAKES
IN ASSOCIATION WITH HUDSON BAY VORTEX. WEAK MEAN TROUGH AND CYCLONIC
SHEAR ZONE ALOFT IS EVIDENT FROM CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SWWD ACROSS MID
MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX REGION TO S TX. THIS INCLUDES CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION....NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY AND VWP/PROFILER DATA OVER MO. PRIMARY SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE
IS CHARACTERIZED BY EXTENSIVE COLLECTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
WRN NY...ERRATICALLY SWWD TO SRN HIGH PLAINS.

...MID-UPPER OH VALLEY...NERN CONUS...
SEVERAL BANDS OF STG-SVR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND SEWD
THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS WRN NY...PA...WV AND NRN KY. 
FOREGOING/INFLOW AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLE
BUOYANCY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN PA INTO WRN NJ WHERE MODIFIED
RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 4-5Z IN PRECONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. 
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH WEAK
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  REF WWS 541...543...546...AND RELATED MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS FOR ADDITIONAL NOWCAST INFO.  SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 4Z AMIDST WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AS BUOYANCY
BEGINS TO DIMINISH.

...OZARKS TO LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...
ORGANIZED LINEAR MCS OVER S-CENTRAL/SWRN IL...EXTREME SERN MO AND
NWRN AR HAS SHOWN WEAKENING TRENDS DURING PAST COUPLE HOURS. 
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MO SHOULD MOVE EWD UP OH VALLEY
OVERNIGHT.  ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT -- RESULTING BOTH FROM
DPVA AND LOW LEVEL WAA -- SHOULD CONTRIBUTE SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION ALOFT TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND/OR
MAINTENANCE OF ACTIVITY NOW AHEAD OF MCS ACROSS INDIANA/SERN IL AND
CENTRAL/WRN KY.  DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE IN SUFFICIENT DENSITY TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK
ACROSS THIS REGION.

...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE CONSOLIDATING ATTM FROM WRN KS AND EXTREME EWD
CO...SWD INTO NERN NM AND WRN PORTIONS TX/OK PANHANDLES.  SVR
HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS
ACTIVITY MOVES SEWD THROUGH FAVORABLY STRONG LOW LEVEL THETAE AND
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...OVERLAIN BY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. 
THIS IS EVIDENT IN MODIFIED DDC RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS.  REF
WWS 544...545...AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR ADDITIONAL
NOWCAST INFO.

AMIDST NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW...RESULTING MCS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD
ACROSS MUCH OF SWRN/S-CENTRAL KS...PORTIONS WRN/NRN OK...AND PERHAPS
TX PANHANDLE.  ALTHOUGH LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE WEAK ATTM PER
NWRN OK PROFILER DATA...STRENGTHENING LLJ SHOULD ENHANCE
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW ACROSS THIS REGION...IN ENVIRONMENT OF RICH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR PROPAGATION OF MCS MAY BE
INTO INSTABILITY AXIS EVIDENT ACROSS NRN TX/OK PANHANDLES...INTO
NWRN/W-CENTRAL OK...WHICH IS LOCATED AROUND NRN/NERN RIM OF
CENTRAL/SRN TX PANHANDLE AIR MASS THAT HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY
STABILIZED BY EARLIER ACTIVITY.  OCCASIONAL HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE.

..EDWARDS.. 06/23/2006