[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 191234
SWODY1
SPC AC 191232

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY
INTO NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES...INTO THE MIDWEST...

...NY/PA/NEW ENGLAND...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC
FLOW.  ONE VORT MAX IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL OH AND SHOULD TRACK
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NY BY AROUND 18Z.  EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES FROM NY/PA AND NEW ENGLAND SHOW MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TODAY.  SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THIS REGION
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. 
MINIMAL CAP AND UPWARD FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS /30-45 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW/
SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS.  LAPSE RATES ARE
RATHER POOR...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT HAIL THREAT.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL NY/PA AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE SUNSET.

...IL/IND/OH...
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE ACROSS THIS REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.  STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-10 TO -12C AT 500MB/...WILL
RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG.  WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG/FAVORABLE FOR MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF
ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS.  MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE LACK OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIKELY LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS. 
THOSE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

...MT/NERN WY/WRN DAKOTAS...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ORE/ID.  THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO MT/WY THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO INITIATE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE PLAINS OF EASTERN MT/NORTHEAST WY WILL TRANSPORT
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WESTWARD.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE EAST OF A BIL-SHR LINE. 
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STORMS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
TORNADOES.  ACTIVITY MAY MAINTAIN SEVERE INTENSITY INTO SOUTHWEST ND
AND WESTERN SD DURING THE EVENING/NIGHT AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS.

...NERN CO/SERN WY/WRN NEB...
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IS IN PLACE TODAY OVER EASTERN CO AND
SOUTHEAST WY.  STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL RESULT
IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG AND ONLY WEAK CAP.  PRESENT
INDICATION ARE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD OFF
THE FOOTHILLS/LARAMIE RANGE AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING. 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS PORTRAY VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES VERY FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELL STORMS.  40+ DEGREE T-TD SPREADS WILL LIKELY PROMOTE
HIGH-BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.  BRIEF TORNADOES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF SUFFICIENT COVERAGE OF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND
OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

...ERN SD/ERN NEB/WRN IA...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVES OUT OF SOUTHEAST MT WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO CENTRAL SD/NEB AFTER MIDNIGHT.  STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET WILL FEED THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH OTHER STORMS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF PRIMARY MCS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER CELLS IN THIS ACTIVITY.

..HART/CROSBIE.. 06/19/2006