[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 180100
SWODY1
SPC AC 180058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE MID MO VALLEY
INTO TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES...

...TX...

MCS IS RAPIDLY EVOLVING THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NWRN...W-CNTRL
AND N-CNTRL TX AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD
TOWARD BASE OF MEAN TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.  INFLOW
AIR MASS OVER CNTRL TX IS HOT AND MOIST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S AND 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.  WHEN
COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG.

EXPECT FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH OF MCS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
ALONG ORGANIZING COLD POOL AS COMPLEX CONTINUES SEWD TOWARD CNTRL
TX.  CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...THOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OWING TO THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.

...NEB/KS/OK...

LINE OF TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
FROM SERN NEB INTO S-CNTRL KS AHEAD OF PRIMARY VORTICITY MAXIMUM
SHIFTING EWD THROUGH N-CNTRL KS/S-CNTRL NEB.  PRIOR CONVECTION HAS
EFFECTIVELY STABILIZED AIR MASS ACROSS MO INTO FAR ERN KS...THUS
THERE APPEARS TO BE ONLY A NARROW SPATIAL CORRIDOR AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WHERE AIR MASS REMAINS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG --REFERENCE 00Z OAX/TOP SOUNDINGS--.  MERIDIONAL
HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG ACROSS THIS AREA WITHIN
ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND
THIS SHEAR IN CONJUNCTION WITH RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER FORCING
SHOULD MAINTAIN A THREAT OF HIGH WINDS/HAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS ERN KS TOWARD THE MID MO VALLEY.

FARTHER S OVER OK...OUTFLOW FROM PRIOR CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED
MUCH OF REGION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD THROUGH THE NWRN
PART OF THE STATE.  HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY
MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH SOME THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES SEWD AND
INTERACTS WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

...WRN GREAT LAKES...

A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXISTS THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD INTO WRN WI WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500
J/KG.  THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...IT IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS UPPER JET STREAK DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION.  INTENSIFYING SWLY LLJ SHOULD MAINTAIN CLUSTERS OF TSTMS
OVERNIGHT WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS FROM WI NEWD INTO THE UP MI. 
A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS.

...LOWER AND MID MS INTO TN VALLEYS...

A CONVECTIVE LINE HAS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING FROM WRN TN SWD INTO
CNTRL MS AHEAD OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM LIFTING NEWD THROUGH AR.  THOUGH
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...00Z JAN SOUNDING
INDICATED THAT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WERE CONTRIBUTING TO
MLCAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG.  THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PARTICULARLY
FROM CNTRL/NRN MS ACROSS WRN TN INTO WRN KY.

..MEAD.. 06/18/2006