[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 161228
SWODY1
SPC AC 161227

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS
STATES...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES....WITH A LARGE RIDGE DOMINATING THE
WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND SOUTHEAST REGION.  TWO
FEATURES ARE EVIDENT IN FLOW FIELD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS. 
THESE SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER
MUCH OF THE PLAINS STATES TODAY.

...NEB/KS INTO TX...
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH
 OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS WEAKENING AND SHOULD DEPART REGION BY LATE
MORNING.  THIS WILL ALLOW SEVERAL HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING FROM THE
TX PANHANDLE INTO NEB. REMNANT WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY
BE THE FOCUS FOR RENEWED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THIS REGION.  AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.  MODEL
SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW A DEEP-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL. THIS WILL AID IN VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS
ONCE THE CAP IS BREACHED THROUGH DAYTIME HEATING.  SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAINS
THREAT.

...SD/ND/MN...
ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY IS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST REGION.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DEPICTED OVER SD/NEB WILL
ROTATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...HELPING TO ELIMINATE
CAPPING INVERSION AND AIDING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 
PRIMARY AXIS OF SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIE ROUGHLY
ALONG A GLD-HSI-FRM LINE TODAY. STRONG HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH APPROACHING TROUGH...SHOULD HELP TO
ELIMINATE CAP LEADING TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS.  VERTICAL SHEAR
IN THIS REGION SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY
OCCUR FARTHER WEST ALONG THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN MN/EASTERN SD.

..HART/GUYER.. 06/16/2006