[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 150058
SWODY1
SPC AC 150057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006

VALID 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...

...NRN PLAINS AREA...

EARLY THIS EVENING...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS CONTINUE FROM ERN MT
THROUGH WRN SD. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF LARGE
SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NNEWD THROUGH
THE NRN ROCKIES. THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE FROM WRN ND THROUGH MUCH
OF SD REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500
J/KG...BUT WITH A STRONGER CAP WITH EWD EXTENT INTO THE DAKOTAS.
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. A
COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NRN PLAINS WITHIN THE AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEWD EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CONTRIBUTING TO
STRONG STORM RELATIVE INFLOW. THESE PROCESSES WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO PERSIST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF
THE DAKOTAS NEXT FEW HOURS. FARTHER EAST OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED. DEVELOPMENT
IN THESE AREAS IS CONDITIONAL IN PART ON ABILITY OF ONGOING STORMS
TO DEVELOP A COLD POOL...IN WHICH CASE THEY MAY BE ABLE TO FORWARD
PROPAGATE INTO PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN DAKOTAS. STILL...GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY STRONG CAP...OVERALL INTENSITIES MAY GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
STORMS MAY BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME. DOMINANT STORM MODE
APPEARS TO BE TRANSITIONING TO CLUSTERS AND LINES WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL
PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OR SO...ESPECIALLY WITH MORE
DISCRETE ACTIVITY OVER SWRN ND AND NWRN SD.

..DIAL.. 06/15/2006