[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 140610
SWODY1
SPC AC 140609

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN MT/NRN WY INTO THE
NRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE/AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS
PERIOD...AS WRN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE PLAINS. 
DOWNSTREAM...CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS
TOWARD THE MS VALLEY...WHILE MAIN AXIS OF ERN TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE/SRN ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS
SD.  COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NRN PLAINS/CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL/ERN SD
BY 15/12Z.

FURTHER E...ALBERTO IS FORECAST BY NHC/TPC TO MOVE FROM ERN SC NEWD
ACROSS ERN NC...AND THEN OFF THE NERN NC COAST AROUND 15/OOZ.

...NRN WY/CENTRAL AND ERN MT EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS/PARTS OF NEB...
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD INVOF UPPER TROUGH...WHILE STRONGLY-CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MT AND INTO THE
NRN PLAINS BENEATH STRONG UPPER RIDGE.

WARM SECTOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL MT/NRN WY AS CAP WEAKENS NEAR SURFACE
LOW/AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...WITHIN DESTABILIZING AIRMASS.  THOUGH
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE MERIDIONAL/SLY...SELY FLOW AT LOW
LEVELS COMBINED WITH INCREASING WIND SPEED WITH HEIGHT WILL YIELD
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.

RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED/ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF WRN SD BY LATE AFTERNOON INVOF WARM FRONT -- AND
INVOF THE BLACK HILLS...WHERE PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL UVV SHOULD
LOCALLY WEAKEN CAP.  CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME INTO THE
EVENING...AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. 
AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADS EWD...THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WILL
INCREASE...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT.  SEVERE POTENTIAL
SHOULD CONTINUE/SPREAD EWD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...REACHING THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS/NEB BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...ERN CAROLINAS...
ALBERTO -- INITIALLY PROGGED OVER ERN SC -- WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NEWD WITH TIME...AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE NC COAST DURING THE EVENING.
 PRIOR TO THIS...MOIST/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THIS
REGION COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR E/NE OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION SUGGESTS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

..GOSS.. 06/14/2006