[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 131230
SWODY1
SPC AC 131228

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND WRN
MT...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FL INTO SRN GA/SRN SC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL SD...

...NRN ROCKIES INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WRN MT...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS AMPLIFIED OVER THE PAC NW.  ASSOCIATED
50+ KT SLY MID LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE GREAT BASIN
AND NOSE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  LAPSE RATES
REMAIN STEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 C/KM.
 THIS WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION IN UPDRAFTS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
WITHIN MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. 
THOUGH OVERNIGHT MODELS APPEAR TOO AGGRESSIVE IN FORECASTING LOWER
60F SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO WRN MT TODAY...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS
UTILIZING MID 50F DEW POINTS STILL GENERATE 2000 J/KG MLCAPE BY 21Z.
 IN ADDITION...SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/SRN ID AND INTO WRN MT INCREASING CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR ALONG AND JUST EAST OF ITS TRACK.  APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS STORMS INCREASE BY
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL ID/WRN
MT...AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL MT THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING.  HAIL...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE QUITE LARGE...ALONG
WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALL EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS TODAY.

...WRN/CENTRAL SD...
RUC AND NAM/NAMP CONTINUE TO GENERATE CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG
HEATING ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO STALL E-W ACROSS SD
TODAY. 4KM NMM/WRF ALSO LIKES THIS SOLUTION.  APPEARS
HEATING...CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE MAY ALLOW CAP TO BREAK NEAR THE
BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS HOLD NEAR
60F JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT.  FORECAST SHEAR WILL BE
MARGINAL BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD THIS ACTIVITY
ROOT INTO ESELY SURFACE WINDS WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 35-40 KT. 
FARTHER EAST...DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE QUESTIONABLE ALONG
THE FRONT.  HOWEVER...EXIT REGION OF 30-40 KT SLY LLJ SHOULD ALLOW A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST EWD OUT OF WRN SD OR
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING INTO CENTRAL SD. 
STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE ELEVATED AFTER DARK WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL.

...FL INTO THE COASTAL SC...
T.S. ALBERTO APPEARS TO BE MAKING LANDFALL THIS MORNING NEAR THE FL
BIG BEND REGION...WITH LITTLE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION NEAR THE STORM
CENTER OVERNIGHT.  EXCEPTION IS ALONG WRN PORTION OF CIRCULATION IN
THE PAST FEW HOURS.  EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IS
OVERSPREADING NRN FL INTO SRN GA JUST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.  APPEARS
LINE OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS NOW EXTENDING FROM E-CENTRAL INTO
SWRN FL IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CONVERGENCE AXIS WITH WINDS VEERING
TO SWLY IN ITS WAKE OVER W-CENTRAL FL. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR
LOW LEVEL ROTATION MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE...PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY PERSIST INTO
NRN FL AND SRN GA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO COASTAL SC LATER THIS
MORNING SHOULD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUE AHEAD OF ALBERTO. 
HERE...LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS ENHANCED DUE TO ENELY SURFACE WINDS
NORTHEAST OF ALBERTO/S CENTER.

...NRN GREAT BASIN...
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ACROSS NRN NV LATE TODAY AND
SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD INTO NRN UT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS DEEP
ASCENT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SMALL AREA OF
MLCAPE WILL DEVELOP ABOVE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SUPPORTING 
A THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURSTS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL FROM
STRONGER CORES.

...PARTS OF SERN TX...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF SE TX THIS
PERIOD...AS WEAK VORT MAX NOW OVER NRN TX MOVES SSEWD INTO THIS
REGION.  WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE FORECAST...AND 30 TO
35 KT NLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS...LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELL OR
WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS MAY EVOLVE -- ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT
FOR HAIL OR LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS.  THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

..EVANS/JEWELL.. 06/13/2006