[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 111237
SWODY1
SPC AC 111235

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
CAROLINA COAST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...OZARKS TO THE CAROLINAS...
EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED E-W FROM CENTRAL/NRN NC INTO SRN MO TODAY.  ONGOING MCS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUES ESEWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY EARLY
TODAY AND MAY INCREASE ON ITS SRN/ERN EDGE AS
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AHEAD OF LEADING OUTFLOW. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED EWD ALONG THE FRONT AND INVOF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS FROM KY/ERN TN INTO NC AS CAP WEAKENS AND AIR MASS
BECOMES MARGINAL TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THE MID AFTERNOON.  DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINAL BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH SFC-6 KM SHEAR OF 20-25 KT
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AS
ACTIVITY MOVES ESEWD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO SRN KS...
SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE SSELY OVER WRN KS/ERN CO
INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE/SERN WY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW
LOWER TO MID 50F SURFACE DEW POINTS TO REMAIN IN PLACE/ADVECT NWWD
AND SUPPORT AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER THAN SATURDAY...BUT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KT SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS AS STORMS INCREASE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN INTO SERN WY/NERN
CO AND THE NEB PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  STORMS SHOULD
AGAIN ORGANIZE INTO A MCS AND MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS BEFORE WEAKENING LATE IN THE EVENING.

A SEPARATE CLUSTER OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z OVER
SRN KS/FAR NRN OK AS 25-35 KT SSWLY LLJ IMPINGES ON E-W ORIENTED
SURFACE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN 2000 + J/KG MUCAPE AND
25-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WHICH WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS FROM THIS OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY.

...FL...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS NOW OVER THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO...THOUGH THE
SYSTEM REMAINED WEAKLY ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT WITH APPARENT CENTER WELL
WEST OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SYSTEM MAY STILL INTENSIFY
INTO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY NWD INTO THE ERN GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY/TONIGHT.  THUS WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES
OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING
SHEAR/BANDS OF STORMS NEARING THE FL COAST LATER TONIGHT IN
ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE FROM TPC.

...PAC NW...
UNUSUAL UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION AS WELL DEFINED
MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES SWWD ACROSS SRN BC AND INTO NWRN WA...WHILE
STRONGER UPPER LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY NEWD TOWARDS THE SWRN ORE/NRN CA
COAST. INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING IMPULSE SHOULD
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NEAR THE CASCADES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS SBCAPE APPROACHES 1000-1500 J/KG. THOUGH SHEAR WILL BE
WEAK...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY
SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CORES.

..EVANS/JEWELL.. 06/11/2006