[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 101633
SWODY1
SPC AC 101632

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY....

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD OVER SW WY...AND THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE
EWD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING.  IN THE LOW
LEVELS...UPSLOPE FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE
PRESENT FROM NW KS/NE CO NWWD ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE TO ERN WY. 
DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PROFILES
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT AND MLCAPE
VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF
DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
SUPERCELLS.  CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS THIS
EVENING WHILE MOVING EWD/SEWD TOWARD SW NEB AND NW KS.

...CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER OH VALLEY...
A PRONOUNCED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NE KS EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL MO TO KY.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S/  AND MASS CONVERGENCE ARE MAXIMIZED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000
J/KG/ IS EXPECTED BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP IN SEVERAL SMALL CLUSTERS ALONG THE FRONT FROM NE
KS/NW MO EWD BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
KS/MO AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF A WEAK MID-HIGH LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING NEWD OVER THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS.  THE PHASING OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS
CONFINED TO A VERY NARROW REGION ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHERE SOME
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY BE POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY THREATS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WITH ONE OR MORE MCS/S INTO EARLY
TONIGHT.

..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 06/10/2006