[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 101220
SWODY1
SPC AC 101218

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0718 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN\CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
MODELS IN STRONG AGREEMENT IN INCREASING STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF ERN WY AND FAR SERN MT DURING THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN ID.  SURFACE
LOW OVER N-CENTRAL WY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE
WY/MT/SD BORDER REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LEE TROUGH
TRAILING SWD ACROSS FAR ERN WY.  SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID
50S ATTM...THOUGH MIXING DUE TO STRONG HEATING MAY DROP THESE VALUES
INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON.  REGARDLESS...RUC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY / MLCAPE
AROUND 1500 JKG-1 / WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO ERN WY
WITH LITTLE OR NO INHIBITION.  THEREFORE...INCREASED DEEP ASCENT AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON OVER ERN WY/SERN MT.  FORECAST HODOGRAPHS
INDICATE SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES WITH 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND 0-1 K SRH IN EXCESS OF 100
M2/S2...ESPECIALLY IN FAR E-CENTRAL WY/WRN NEB PANHANDLE.  ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE LINES/CLUSTERS WITH STRONG TO
SEVERE MCS MOVING ESEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

...LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE OH/CUMBERLAND RIVER VALLEYS...
SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAINED STALLED ACROSS THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY
INTO ERN KY TODAY...WITH WEAK LOW CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING FRONT
SAGGING SWD INTO NERN KS/NWRN MO.  HEATING AND CONVERGENCE MAY
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS NEAR THE FRONT FROM THE OH RIVER
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE DAY AS AIR MASS
BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED WITH MLCAPE FROM
1500-2000 J/KG.  SURFACE FRONT WILL EXTEND ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF
40-50 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 25-35 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY PROVE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED LINES GIVEN GENERAL UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE. 

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER ERN CO EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE ENEWD AND SHOULD ENHANCE ASCENT INTO WRN MO
NEAR PEAK HEATING.  THIS MAY OVERCOME CAPPING WHERE CONVERGENCE AND
HEATING IS STRONGEST INVOF SURFACE FRONT AND ALLOW
VIGOROUS...SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY. 
SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL BUILD UPSCALE INTO A MCS
THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG NOSE OF INCREASING SWLY LLJ WITH PRIMARY
THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE
ESEWD TOWARDS THE MID MS/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS AND LIKELY
BACK-BUILD INTO STRONGER LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME INTO WRN MO/ERN KS
THROUGH THE EVENING.

..EVANS/JEWELL.. 06/10/2006