[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 100609
SWODY1
SPC AC 100607

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH
PLAINS ESEWD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE NERN U.S. THIS
PERIOD...WHILE MODERATELY-FAST BELT OF WNWLY/ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ESEWD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION.  


AT THE SURFACE...A GENERALLY W-E BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO
SETTLE SWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WHILE BECOMING
ALIGNED ROUGHLY N-S ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY/ERN CO. THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE -- ALONG SRN FRINGE OF FASTER FLOW ALOFT -- WILL BE
A FOCUS FOR SEVERE CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...SERN MT SEWD INTO WRN KS...
COMPLEX SERIES OF UPPER SHORT-WAVE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EWD
WITHIN BELT OF RELATIVELY FAST WLY/WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS.  A RELATIVELY SUBSTANTIAL FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN AFFECTING THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS BY MIDDAY...AS AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE UNDERWAY.  THOUGH CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING INVOF THIS FEATURE...MODELS SUGGEST EARLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SWRN SD/ERN WY/WRN
NEB AS COMBINATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY AND UPSLOPE FLOW JUST TO THE
COOL SIDE OF FRONT COMBINE TO PROVIDE A ZONE OF FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE.

THOUGH MODELS DIFFER IN DETAILS OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WIND
FIELD...ALL INDICATE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS.  ALONG WITH THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING
WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE GIVEN RELATIVELY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND SUBSTANTIAL VEERING IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD
-- PARTICULARLY JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY.

THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP/SPREAD SEWD...PERHAPS
EVOLVING INTO ONE OR MORE MCS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 
ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKEWISE SPREAD SEWD INTO KS/SRN
NEB...PERHAPS INTO THE MID MO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.


...CENTRAL AND NRN MO ESEWD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO SHARPEN BAROCLINIC ZONE
INVOF THE OH VALLEY.

THOUGH MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE
BOUNDARY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM
CENTRAL AND NRN MO ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY INTO PARTS OF IL/SRN
INDIANA AND INTO KY.  GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THE
REGION...MODERATELY-STRONG WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORMS -- WITH A FEW BOWING-TYPE CLUSTERS LIKELY.  ALONG
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...FAIRLY RAPID ESEWD STORM MOTION
ANTICIPATED WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A RELATIVELY
ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT.  GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS APPEARS TO EXIST FROM NRN AND CENTRAL MO ESEWD ACROSS SRN IL
INTO SWRN INDIANA AND PARTS OF WRN KY.

SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A LOW-END
THREAT POSSIBLY MOVING E OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO VA/THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 06/10/2006