[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 070103
SWODY1
SPC AC 070101

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN IL AND SERN WI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SABINE VLY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SCNTRL AZ DESERTS...

...UPPER MIDWEST...
TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ACROSS WI HAVE
BEEN THRIVING IN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION.  THE STORMS ARE BEING FED
BY PARCELS EMANATING FROM AN UPSTREAM STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MID-EVENING AS THEY MOVE ESEWD TO
LAKE MI AND FAR NRN IL.  VAD WIND PROFILE FROM MKX EXHIBITED A
MODEST TURNING IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.  THUS...A FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE
THEY DIMINISH.

...MID-MS VLY AND OZARKS...
ISOLD TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED UPSTREAM ACROSS SRN IA WERE DROPPING SWD
INTO NRN MO THIS EVE.  THE STORMS ARE LIKELY PEAKING IN INTENSITY
AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THEY HEAD INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE OZARKS AND ECNTRL MO LATER THIS EVE. 
UNTIL THEN...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

...SABINE RVR AREA...
MCV ROTATING SWD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX COUPLED WITH STRONG BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATING WERE LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EVOLVING TSTM
CLUSTER...NOW MOVING INTO NWRN LA.  LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
A COLD POOL WAS STRENGTHENING. DEEP NWLY FLOW REGIME AOA 45 KTS
WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE THE OUTFLOW TO ACCELERATE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...SOME SIGNIFICANT...THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SABINE VLY.

...SCNTRL/SWRN AZ DESERTS...
A LONG-LIVED SMALL TSTM CLUSTER CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NWWD ACROSS
AREAS NEAR/S OF PHX WITH ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
COCHISE COUNTY.  PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS THROUGH MID-EVENING WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE SCNTRL AZ DESERTS.  WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
COUPLED WITH SEASONABLY MOIST COLUMN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING
WINDS/DUST STORMS.  HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS. 
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 03Z.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WAS ENHANCING CONVERGENCE VCNTY THE RATON
PASS NWD TO ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN SERN CO VCNTY WALSENBURG AND
TRINIDAD.  GIVEN HOT BOUNDARY LAYER AND MARGINAL MOISTURE A FEW HIGH
BASED TSTMS HAVE FORMED THAT MAY GIVE ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
THROUGH MID-EVENING.  BUT...WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BENEATH DEEP
LAYER RIDGE WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED STORMS.

..RACY.. 06/07/2006