[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 061957
SWODY1
SPC AC 061955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWD
INTO THAT ARKLATEX REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN AZ...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF CO AND
NRN NM...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NC AND NERN SC...

...WRN GREAT LAKES INTO LOWER MO VALLEY...
UPPER VORTICITY MAX APPROACHING WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ESEWD TOWARD NRN LAKE MI/NRN LOWER MI BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
 A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM EXTREME WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SWD INTO WRN
WI/ERN IA AND NWRN MO IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD/SEWD THROUGH TONIGHT. 
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BANDS FROM WI AND WRN LOWER MI SWD INTO
CENTRAL IL HAS LIMITED HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR A NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE
FRONT. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM NWRN
WI INTO ERN IA...AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY FROM WI INTO
NRN IL...MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM
SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

GREATER INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FROM ERN IA SWWD INTO NWRN MO AND
SOUTH CENTRAL/ERN KS WHERE MLCAPE RANGES TO 2500 J/KG. CAP APPEARS
TO BE WEAKENING FROM IA INTO EXTREME NERN KS WHERE STRONG HEATING IS
OCCURRING...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.  MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP.

...ERN OK/WRN AR/NERN TX/NWRN LA...
MCV OVER EXTREME ERN OK IS CONTINUING TO MOVE SEWD THIS AFTERNOON. 
PRIMARY AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FROM ERN OK SWD INTO ERN
TX...AND SATELLITE/RADAR/LIGHTNING DATA HAVE INDICATED MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
MCV.  IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL NWLY WINDS HAVE BEEN CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCV...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT
SHEAR TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THIS REGION.

...SRN AZ...
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A DEEP WELL-MIXED
LAYER HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SRN AZ.  LTG DATA INDICATE A FEW
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH OF FHU INTO EXTREME SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ AND ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF SERN AZ.  25-35 KT SELY MID LEVEL WINDS NOTED ON 12Z
TUS SOUNDING AND LATEST EMX VAD PROFILE INDICATE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND PERMIT STORMS TO SPREAD
NWWD WITH TIME.  DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS...AND WE WILL BE MONITORING THIS AREA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MORE ORGANIZED MCS DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...FRONT RANGE FROM NORTH CENTRAL CO INTO NRN NM...
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER NERN NM AND SERN CO COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING
WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A DEEP
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CENTRAL NM AND SOUTH CENTRAL CO. 
ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE WEAK WITHIN UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR PULSE SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

...ERN NC INTO NERN SC...
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN COLD CORE /-19C AT 500
MB/ OF UPPER LOW LOCATED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.  THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE GENERALLY SWD THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF STRONG
WIND GUSTS.  SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING.

..WEISS.. 06/06/2006