[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 281637
SWODY1
SPC AC 281635

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CDT WED JUN 28 2006

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN SIERRA/NRN CA INTO
SRN ORE/WRN NV...

...CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...
REFERENCE WW 558 AND ACCOMPANYING SWOMCDS FOR THE LATEST ON LOWER MI
AND VICINITY TODAY.  POTENT UPPER LOW WITH ASSOCIATED -20C MID LEVEL
COLD POCKET WILL CONTINUE FOCUSING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
SPREADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
HAIL AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE/SEVERITY AHEAD OF THIS UPPER
SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY.  APPEARS MORE CONCENTRATED COVERAGE OF
SEVERE WILL OCCUR ACROSS LOWER MI AND INTO PARTS OF NRN IND/NWRN
OH...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF UPPER LOW CIRCULATION.  SHEAR PROFILES
REMAIN QUITE WEAK...THOUGH SOME ORGANIZATION INTO LINES/CLUSTERS MAY
OCCUR GIVEN DEEP/FOCUSED ASCENT.  THEREFORE...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.

FARTHER SOUTH INTO IL/IND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/LINES
AND POSSIBLY A SUPERCELL OR TWO AS MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH CENTRAL GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION.  EXPECT
LARGE RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THIS
REGION AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW ADVANCING SSEWD ACROSS NRN
IL/NRN MO.  THOUGH LOW LEVEL FOCUS/CONVERGENCE ACROSS WARM SECTOR
WILL REMAIN WEAK...SEVERAL CLUSTERS/LINES OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS CAP WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY.  STRONGER CLUSTERS/CORES
WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...SOUTHEAST...
WEAKLY ORGANIZED STORMS WILL TEND TO CLUSTER WITHIN 20-25 KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF NRN FL/SRN GA INTO PORTIONS OF ERN
SC/SERN NC THIS AFTERNOON.  AIR MASS WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. THIS SUGGESTS DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION...
WITH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING AFTER DARK.

...NRN CA/SRN ORE/WRN NV...
STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM COASTAL CA VORT SHOULD
SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FROM THE NRN SIERRA NWD
INTO PARTS OF ORE AND NV.  INVERTED-VEE BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT
AND STRENGTHENING MEAN FLOW SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING.

...CNTRL PLNS TO LWR MO VLY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT NOW EXTENDING NW-SE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FROM ERN WY INTO SERN NEB/NERN KS.  VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL SUSTAIN A RISK FOR HIGH-BASED STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURSTS
AND HAIL...ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION OF WRN NEB/FAR
NERN CO. FARTHER E...WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA...ALONG AND N OF WRN END OF SAME COLD
FRONT AFFECTING THE OH VLY.  WHILE THIS SETUP MAY YIELD DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED
GIVEN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE WRN RIDGE.   SHOULD STORMS
FORM...A THREAT WILL EXIST FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...BUT TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TO WARRANT UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ATTM.

..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 06/28/2006