[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 281258
SWODY1
SPC AC 281256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT WED JUN 28 2006

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPR GRT LKS INTO THE
OH VLY/CNTRL APLCNS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/NRN SIERRA INTO
SRN ORE/WRN NV...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE S ATLANTIC CST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH
PATTERN EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.  AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN RECENT
DAYS...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING S/SE AROUND
WRN AND SRN SIDES OF GRT LKS/OH VLY TROUGH.  THOSE THIS MORNING
INCLUDING APPARENT IMPULSES NOW OVER IL/WRN KY...NE WI...NRN MN AND
WRN SD.

IN THE WEST...UPR VORT NOW NEAR PT CONCEPTION SHOULD CONTINUE NW AND
LATER NE AROUND FRINGE OF GRT BASIN RIDGE..REACHING SE ORE EARLY
THURSDAY.

...UPR GRT LKS INTO OH VLY/CNTRL APLCNS...
UNUSUALLY STRONG/COOL UPR TROUGH LIKELY WILL YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE GRT LKS/OH VLY AND APLCNS.  LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
REMAIN WEAK...BUT PERHAPS STRONGEST INVOF WEAK COLD FRONT NOW
EXTENDING FROM NRN LWR MI SW INTO NRN MO.  BUT COUPLED WITH SURFACE
HEATING... REGIONAL DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S...COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODEST DEEP SHEAR...SETUP SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
SUPPORT SHORT BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.  THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MOST CONCENTRATED INVOF PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED UPR
IMPULSES...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING HAIL.  WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF OH VLY IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT
CONTINUED EWD DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS INTO THE CNTRL APLCNS BY THIS
EVENING.

...NRN CA/SRN ORE/WRN NV...
STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM COASTAL CA VORT SHOULD
SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FROM THE NRN SIERRA NWD
INTO PARTS OF ORE AND NV.  INVERTED-VEE BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT
AND STRENGTHENING MEAN FLOW SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING.

...S ATLANTIC CST...
AN AXIS OF RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F/ WILL
PERSIST ALONG THE S ATLANTIC CST IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SUBTROPICAL
LOW.  WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...REGION MAY
BE PERIPHERALLY AFFECTED BY AREA OF UPR DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
OH VLY SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  COUPLED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH...SETUP SHOULD
SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE PULSE STORMS.  MERGING COLD POOLS
MAY YIELD A DAMAGING WIND THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

...CNTRL PLNS TO LWR MO VLY...
A CHANCE WILL EXIST FOR HIGH-BASED MICROBURST-PRODUCING STORMS ALONG
SEGMENT OF LEE TROUGH OVER ERN NEB/NE CO/NW KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 
FARTHER E...WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA...ALONG AND N OF WRN END OF SAME COLD FRONT
AFFECTING THE OH VLY.  WHILE THIS SETUP MAY YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO WHETHER
OR NOT SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED GIVEN
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE WRN RIDGE. SHOULD STORMS FORM...A
THREAT WILL EXIST FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...BUT TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TO WARRANT UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ATTM.

..CORFIDI.. 06/28/2006