[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 270056
SWODY1
SPC AC 270054

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2006

VALID 270100Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL/SRN ATLANTIC COAST...

00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS E OF THE CNTRL/SRN
APPALACHIANS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F.  EXPECT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF SUB-TROPICAL WAVE
/CURRENTLY OFF THE NERN FL COAST/ WHICH WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY
ABSORBED IN DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW REGIME IN PLACE OVER THE PIEDMONT
AND COAST PLAIN.  NAM/RUC GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP NWD ALONG THE GA/SC COASTS TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS UPPER WAVE...MAINTAINING BACKED SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE CNTRL
INTO SRN ATLANTIC COAST.  THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST
/25-30 KTS THROUGH 0-6 KM AGL/...LOCALLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE LOW AND THE MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS
INDICATE A LOW THREAT OF A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO...AND PERHAPS A FEW
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...OH VALLEY...

OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOW A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE/HEIGHT
SYSTEM OVER IL...WHICH IS MAINTAINING ACTIVE CONVECTION FROM
VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER OVER CNTRL INTO SERN IL...EWD ALONG WEAK
ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL IND INTO WRN KY. 00Z
SOUNDINGS AND VWPS/PROFILES INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS
QUITE WEAK INVOF THIS LOW...HOWEVER MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES OF AROUND -14 C AT 500 MB ARE RESULTING
IN WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN ONGOING STORMS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  SOME HAIL/LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD
THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
TSTMS ONGOING OVER CNTRL MN INTO WRN WI AND NERN SD.  00Z MSP
SOUNDING INDICATES THAT RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COUPLED WITH THE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ARE LARGELY SUPPORTING THIS DEEP CONVECTION.  ACTIVITY HAS TENDED TO
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR...AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN. 
ISOLATED HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS THROUGH 02-03Z.

...AZ/NM...

CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING OVER NRN NM AND
PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN AZ WITHIN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  00Z ABQ INDICATES
SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO NWLY IN THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS WITH
30-35 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...WHICH IS SUPPORTING SOME MID-LEVEL
ROTATION IN SOME OF THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL
AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY
THROUGH 02-03Z INTO CNTRL NM...PRIOR TO STORMS WEAKENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  

OVER SRN AZ...VERTICAL SHEAR IS MUCH WEAKER THOUGH A CONSIDERABLY
DEEPER BOUNDARY-LAYER AND DRY SUB CLOUD CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE
STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH A THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS.

..MEAD.. 06/27/2006