[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 231258
SWODY1
SPC AC 231256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VLY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST / NORTHEAST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER WRN PARTS OF THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPR LOW WILL LINGER OVER ERN HUDSON BAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS GRT
BASIN RIDGE BUILDS N INTO THE PACIFIC NW.  SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES EVIDENT IN SATELLITE LOOPS FROM ALBERTA SEWD INTO MT
AND THE WRN DAKOTAS SHOULD AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO
THEIR WEST.  IN THE EAST...SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES REMAIN SOMEWHAT
MASKED BY MCS DEBRIS.  APPARENT SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND/OR MCVS
DO...HOWEVER...APPEAR ATTM OVER IL/IND...AND OVER SRN WV.

...TN VLY TO NEW ENG...
THIS MORNING'S SURFACE DATA SHOW EVIDENCE OF YESTERDAY'S WIDESPREAD
STORMS FROM THE OH VLY TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH DEWPOINTS SOMEWHAT
DEPRESSED IN THAT REGION RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER S ACROSS VA/NC. 
SURFACE HEATING OF DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT LIKELY WILL RESULT IN
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS ALONG A
BROAD CORRIDOR FROM KY/TN NEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN NEW ENG.

WEAK COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM UPSTATE NY INTO THE LWR OH VLY
MAY SERVE AS FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION AS
THE BOUNDARY SETTLES VERY SLOWLY SEWD. MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY SHOULD
FORM INVOF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN CNTRL VA AND SRN
KY/MIDDLE TN....WHERE HEATING WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE GREATEST.

MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW LIKELY WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN PA/NY AND NEW ENG.  FARTHER S...SLIGHTLY
GREATER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY COMPENSATE FOR WEAKER SHEAR TO
SUPPORT MORE CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY IN THE ERN HALF OF TN...NRN/WRN
NC AND CNTRL/ERN VA.  DESPITE ORGANIZATION INTO CLUSTERS...MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE RATHER DIURNAL...WITH WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET.
 

...NRN/CNTRL PLNS...
SERIES OF IMPULSES DROPPING SE ACROSS THE NRN HI PLNS WILL ENHANCE
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE ACROSS WRN/CNTRL SD AND NW NEB 
TODAY/TONIGHT. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
/DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50/...HEATING BENEATH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE BLACK
HILLS BY MID AFTERNOON.  MORE WIDELY SCATTERED/HIGHER-BASED STORMS
MAY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN W INTO SRN MT/NRN WY. MODERATE
/35+ KT/ DEEP WNWLY SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. THESE STORMS
SHOULD MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE SMALL CLUSTERS THAT MOVE GENERALLY SE
INTO THE WRN HALF OF NEB AND NW KS LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

...SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY...
WEAKLY SHEARED/MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS FOLLOWING MAX
HEATING TODAY FROM PARTS OF TX INTO MS.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 06/23/2006