[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 221942
SWODY1
SPC AC 221940

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE
OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISKS FROM
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO NY...

...MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY...

TWO LONG LIVED MCS/S HAVE REINTENSIFIED OVER THE OH AND MID MS
VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON.  SEVERE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
LEAD MCS HAS EXPANDED MARKEDLY OVER NRN OH THE LAST FEW HOURS. 
ACTUAL VORT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS LOCATED OVER SRN LOWER
MI...BUT CLEARLY THE LARGE SCALE INFLUENCE STRETCHES SWD INTO OH
WHERE INSTABILITY IS QUITE HIGH WITH MODEST SWLY FLOW AT 6KM.  A
COLD POOL APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING OVER NERN IND/NWRN OH.  THIS MAY
AID DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS SQUALL LINE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED
AND RACES EWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NRN/CNTRL OH INTO WRN PA. 
ADDITIONALLY...MULTIPLE DISCRETE STORMS HAVE EVOLVED AHEAD OF THIS
DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE AND THEY WILL SPREAD INTO WRN PA A FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF DAMAGING SQUALL LINE.

UPSTREAM...ANOTHER WELL DEFINED UPPER VORT IS BECOMING WELL DEFINED
WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL MO.  NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE STRENGTHENED ACROSS MO AND APPEAR TO BE ORGANIZING INTO A
SQUALL LINE FROM EAST OF JEF TRAILING SWWD INTO NWRN AR.  VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH MLCAPES TO
3000J/KG...WHICH WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED UPWARD GROWTH OF
MCS AS IT SPREADS EWD INTO SRN IL/SRN IND.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY AS SQUALL LINE MATURES OVER MO OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS.


...SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN CO INTO NERN
NM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS
IS QUITE BUOYANT AT THIS TIME WITH CU FIELD EXPANDING AHEAD OF
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...MCS SHOULD
EVOLVE ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR FROM NORTH OF COS TO NEAR GLD.  THIS
ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD SEWD WITHIN FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
FOR MAINTAINING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN LARGER MCS-TYPE COMPLEX.
 VERY LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY
CONVECTION AS IT SPREADS TOWARD THE TX PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.

FARTHER SOUTH...STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT IS SLOWING ITS WWD PROPAGATION OVER THE TX SOUTH
PLAINS.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL MEANDER ABOUT IN THE LBB REGION...DRIVEN
BY STORM PROCESSES AS FLOW ALOFT IS MUCH WEAKER OVER THIS REGION. 
LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..DARROW.. 06/22/2006