[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 220604
SWODY1
SPC AC 220602

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN NEE ENGLAND TO SRN/CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
BASIC UPPER AIR PATTERN IS FCST TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL ACROSS
NRN HALF OF CONUS...AS CANADIAN MARITIMES TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
AWAY FROM AREA.  SRN RIM OF CYCLONIC FLOW -- ORBITING HUDSON BAY LOW
-- WILL COVER PORTIONS GREAT LAKES BUT REMAIN LARGELY N OF SFC
FRONTAL ZONE.  FRONT ITSELF IS PROGGED TO BE QUASISTATIONARY OVER
MOST OF ITS LENGTH AND TO EXTEND FROM ERN GREAT LAKES WSWWD ACROSS
IL...MO...INTO NRN TX PANHANDLE OR OK PANHANDLE...AND SERN CO. 
HOWEVER...ACTUAL POSITION OF SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE SHUNTED
FARTHER S IN MANY AREAS BY NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

TWO PRIMARY SEVERE AREAS WOULD BE FAVORED PURELY BY PATTERN
RECOGNITION -- NERN CONUS AND CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS -- HOWEVER...THESE
ALSO ARE BEING MOST STRONGLY AFFECTED ATTM BY LARGE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES.  MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES PREDOMINATE ATTM WITH STRONG
CONDITIONAL DEPENDENCE OF SVR POTENTIAL ON BOUNDARY
CHARACTER/ORIENTATION. WILL MAINTAIN BROAD AREA OF ESSENTIALLY
CONSTANT PROBABILITIES ATTM...THOUGH A FEW RELATIVELY DENSE
CONCENTRATIONS OF SVR ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THIS BROAD
CORRIDOR.

...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN ARE EVIDENT JUST IN THIS REGION WITH
SOME SPATIAL OVERLAP...

1. INITIAL UPSLOPE RELATED DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN CO/NERN NM THAT MAY
RESULT IN ONE OR TWO SEVERE MCS FROM WRN KS INTO TX PANHANDLE AND
PERHAPS WRN OK OVERNIGHT.  SIGNIFICANT ELY/UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD CONTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANTLY TO SHEAR...BOTH
IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP-LAYER BULKS
SHEAR...FAVORING AFTERNOON SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.  STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE BUOYANCY
ALSO.  THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS STRONG ENOUGH IN POTENTIAL FOR
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO INTRODUCE SIGNIFICANT-HAIL
PROBABILITIES...THOUGH MESOSCALE FACTORS MAY WARRANT EXTENSION SEWD
INTO LOW PLAINS IN LATER OUTLOOKS.  PRIMARY POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT
FROM DUAL HAIL/WIND THREAT TO MOSTLY WIND AS RESULTING MCS MOVES
SEWD ACROSS HIGH PLAINS.

2. FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RELATED DEVELOPMENT FROM TX PANHANDLE
ENEWD ACROSS OK...SRN KS...AND MO.  AMBIENT AIR MASS -- UNDISTURBED
BY PRIOR CONVECTION -- WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY 8-9 DEG C/KM
LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...RICH SFC-850 MOIST LAYER AND AT LEAST
MRGLLY FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOW
ECHOES.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES LOCALLY SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG
ZONALLY ORIENTED OR NW-SE BOUNDARIES...HELPING TO COUNTERACT WEAK
MIDLEVEL WINDS.  MCV -- NOW EVIDENT OVER S-CENTRAL KS...ALSO MAY
PROVIDE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT TO VERTICAL SHEAR AND TO LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...AS INDICATED BY BOTH MAN-WRF AND SPECTRAL MODELS.

...OH VALLEY TO NERN CONUS...
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS
CORRIDOR AS EARLY AS MID-LATE MORNING...AND CONTINUING EPISODICALLY
INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS.  MESOSCALE BOUNDARY UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE
SIGNIFICANT-SVR AREA OR LARGER MODAL PROBABILITIES...HOWEVER ONE OR
TWO SVR MCS MAY DEVELOP FROM EARLY ACTIVITY.  ALTHOUGH HAIL IS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITH DISCRETE CELLS...PRIND MORE
LONG-LASTING SEVERE MODE WOULD BE DAMAGING GUSTS...GIVEN NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL CHARACTER OF DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELDS.  RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM WSW AND W...AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AWAY
FROM BOUNDARIES...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG IN SOME
AREAS. BUOYANCY MAY BE EVEN STRONGER OVER PORTIONS
INDIANA/IL...HOWEVER WEAKER CONVERGENCE ALSO IS EXPECTED INVOF
FRONTAL ZONE.

..EDWARDS/CROSBIE.. 06/22/2006