[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 220114
SWODY1
SPC AC 220112

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0812 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES TO
S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL BECOME MOST
PROMINENT FEATURE ALOFT NOW THAT CYCLONE FARTHER E HAS LIFTED INTO
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  EMBEDDED IN BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW IS
WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN SHORE OF LS. 
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT ACCELERATES ENEWD ACROSS
NRN ONT.  ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN MT AND WY -- SHOULD MOVE EWD TOWARD
N-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

AT SFC...SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM E-CENTRAL UPPER MI AND
ERN LS SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL IA AND CENTRAL KS...TO NRN TX PANHANDLE
AND NERN NM.  PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES ARE
ANALYZED FROM NERN OH WWD ACROSS NRN INDIANA...WITH ANOTHER WEAK
PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NERN KS ACROSS NRN MO AND N-CENTRAL IL. 
DRYLINE INTERSECTS FRONT OVER TX/NM BORDER AND EXTENDS SSWWD ACROSS
SERN NM.

...SRN GREAT LAKES/MID/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION...
CLUSTER OF TSTMS NOW OVER NWRN OH AND ADJACENT PORTIONS LE HAS
YIELDED REPORTS OF DAMAGING WIND...HAIL...TORNADO AND FUNNEL CLOUDS.
MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES FURTHER
EWD ACROSS NRN OH AND LE SHORE DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
OCCASIONAL HAIL AND BRIEF TORNADOES POSSIBLE.  LINE OF STG-SVR STMS
ALSO IS MOVING EWD ATTM ACROSS NRN INDIANA.  AT 2251Z...SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE GUST WAS MEASURED WITH LATTER ACTIVITY ON INDIANA
LAKESHORE...AND ADDITIONAL SEVERE GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED AS THIS
CLUSTER AND/OR NWRN OH/WRN LE MCS MOVES ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH
REMAINDER EVENING.  REF WWS 530...532 AND 536...AS WELL AS
ACCOMPANYING MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS...FOR LATEST NEAR-TERM FCST INFO.


EXPECT MORE COHESIVE MCS TO CONSOLIDATE FROM THIS ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING...AND TO TURN ESEWD OR SEWD...ESPECIALLY ON ITS SWRN END. 
THIS PROCESS SHOULD RESULT FROM PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT OF MCS
MOTION...BACKBUILDING INTO 30-40 KT WLY LLJ.  MEANWHILE COLD POOL
DRIVEN VERTICAL CIRCULATION MAY DRIVE ERN PORTION OF ACTIVITY INTO
NERN OH AND WRN PA WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...BEFORE THIS
SEGMENT OF MCS MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR AND WEAKENS. ADDITIONAL
/UPSCALE COLD POOL GROWTH MAY THEN OCCUR FARTHER SW ACROSS OH
PORTION OF MCS WITH POTENTIAL MOTION ACROSS OH RIVER INTO PORTIONS
WV AND/OR NERN KY OVERNIGHT.

...CENTRAL PLAINS TO SRN HIGH PLAINS...
STG-SVR TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SEVERAL CLUSTERS ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE...FROM ERN PORTIONS KS/NEB BORDER SWWD ACROSS
TX PANHANDLE TO SERN NM.  OTHER STG-SVR TSTMS ARE EVIDENT IN
POSTFRONTAL/UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME OVER EXTREME ERN CO.  THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE INTO AREAS OF FAVORABLE BUOYANCY AND AT LEAST MRGLLY
FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR BOTH BOWS AND SUPERCELLS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD
PERSIST AND SHIFT GENERALLY EWD OVER WRN/NERN KS...S-CENTRAL
KS...ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES AND WRN/NRN OK DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH MOST SVR EVENTS CONSISTING OF HAIL AND GUSTS.  REF SPC WWS
529...531...533...535...AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS..FOR
NOWCAST INFO.  SVR POTENTIAL ON MOST OF HIGH PLAINS SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH LOSS OF SFC HEATING AND EXPANSION OF STABLE OUTFLOW
POOLS...EXCEPT ACROSS NWRN KS.

ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z OVER PORTIONS NRN
MO/SRN IA AND PERHAPS NRN IL INVOF SFC FRONTAL ZONE.  BOTH SFC-BASED
AND ELEVATED BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH
MOIST PROFILES FROM BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH 800 MB...AND ROUGHLY 8
DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...PER LATEST RAOBS.  SEVERE GUSTS AND
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

..EDWARDS.. 06/22/2006