[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 191946
SWODY1
SPC AC 191944

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE OH
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO
THE MID MO VALLEY...

...NERN U.S...

AN ELONGATED SQUALL LINE HAS DEVELOPED FROM NRN VT...SWWD INTO ERN
PA...MOVING EAST AT ROUGHLY 35KT.  STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAS
PROVEN INSTRUMENTAL IN SQUALL LINE INTENSIFICATION AS LOWEST 3KM
LAPSE RATES ARE NOW ROUGHLY 8C/KM OVER MOST OF NEW ENGLAND. 
ADDITIONALLY...CONTINUED SUNSHINE AND 40KT MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW
SHOULD FORCE THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH STRONG
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY.  CONVECTION MAY APPROACH COASTAL
ME/NH/MA BY 00Z GIVEN THE CURRENT SPEED/MOVEMENT.  ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS MAY EVOLVE AHEAD OF THIS LINE IT APPEARS THE GREATEST
RISK OF SEVERE WILL BE NOTED WITH THE MCS.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...

TWO SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE EVOLVING ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON.  NRN MOST ORGANIZED
CLUSTER IS CURRENTLY OVER SRN ONTARIO BUT WILL SOON SPREAD ACROSS
LAKE ERIE INTO PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NY...SWWD ALONG THE OH SHORELINE.
 AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING BOW ECHO OVER WRN LAKE ERIE...ALTHOUGH EXTENT OF LAKE
INFLUENCES HAVE YET TO BE DETERMINED.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD
INTO THE CLEVELAND METRO AREA BY 21Z.  STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO SPREAD
INTO THE BUF REGION NEAR 21Z AS WELL GIVEN THE ORGANIZED NATURE OF
THIS ACTIVITY OVER ONTARIO.

FARTHER SOUTH...A SEVERE CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
CNTRL IND...SPREADING SEWD TOWARD THE OH RIVER AS UPPER FLOW VEERS
WITH TROUGH PASSAGE.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD APPROACH LUK OVER THE
NEXT HOUR WITH THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.

...NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...

STRONG HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN HAS FINALLY FORCED PARCELS TO
THEIR LFC FROM SWRN MT INTO NWRN WY....AND SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL
ROCKIES FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE INTO CNTRL CO.  NRN MOST ACTIVITY IS
AIDED BY A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY
ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM EXPANSION THIS EVENING AS STORMS SPREAD OFF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO MORE FAVORABLE...YET RECOVERING...BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS.  RAPID LLJ INTENSIFICATION FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO SERN
MT SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE THE UPWARD EVOLVING MCS CLUSTERS AS THEY
SPREAD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS.  INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS MAY ALSO GENERATE ELEVATED...POTENTIALLY
SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB INTO THE
MID MO VALLEY REGION.

..DARROW.. 06/19/2006