[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 181239
SWODY1
SPC AC 181238

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 AM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NEB/IA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID MS
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE MID MS VALLEY THIS
MORNING.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...MAIN SURFACE FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM WI INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT...AS WELL AS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ACROSS
PARTS OF NEB/IA. 

...TX COAST THIS MORNING...
REMNANT NOCTURNAL MCS IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND AFFECTING THE TX
GULF COAST.  RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT AHEAD OF
STORMS...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED INTENSE CELLS
AHEAD OF LEADING EDGE OF MCS.  VERTICAL WIND PROFILES IN THIS REGION
ARE RATHER WEAK...SUGGESTING MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS
ARE THE MAIN THREAT.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
MORNING. 

...MI/OH/IND...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS AR/WESTERN TN.  THE FEATURE WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES STATES THIS AFTERNOON. 
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.  MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS
AREA SUGGEST ONLY MINIMAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES BELOW 1000
J/KG/ DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER.
 HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL WINDS /AS STRONG AS 50 KNOTS AT
500MB/ AND APPROACHING TROUGH MAY ENHANCE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.  

...KY/TN/AR/TX...
ANOTHER AREA OF CONCENTRATED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM WESTERN KY SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHEAST TX.  MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL ROTATE ACROSS THIS REGION
TODAY...FURTHER AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND ORGANIZATION. 
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STEEP. 
HOWEVER...AMPLE MOISTURE AND STRONGER HEATING THAN FARTHER NORTH
WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE OVER 1500 J/KG.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP 21-00Z FROM NORTHERN AR INTO SOUTHEAST MO. 
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

...NEB/IA...
ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN WY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY BY 00Z.  RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS WEAK IN THIS REGION.  HOWEVER...STRONG UPPER
FORCING AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY ALLOW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BEFORE 00Z.  SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..HART/TAYLOR.. 06/18/2006