[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 171230
SWODY1
SPC AC 171229

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...

LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...WHILE RIDGE HOLDS FIRM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.  PRIMARY REGION OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY WILL BE ALONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM TX INTO WI/MI WHERE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR AND AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE COINCIDENT.

...KS/OK/TX...
DECAYING MCS REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING...WITH MORE
ISOLATED CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER OK AND SOUTHEAST KS.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD BY LATE MORNING ALLOWING
RELATIVELY STRONG DAYTIME HEATING ALONG SURFACE DRYLINE FROM
NORTHWEST TX INTO CENTRAL KS.  MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE
DRYLINE SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
/DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG/. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS
CENTRAL NM.  THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO WEST TX/OK THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND PEAK HEATING...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES
OF 30-45 KNOTS WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS...WHILE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL.  ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHWEST TX.  ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KS/EASTERN
OK/CENTRAL TX DURING THE EVENING.

...MN/WI/MI...
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION.  POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG WEAK SURFACE
FRONT/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MN.  THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS WI AND INTO LOWER MI THIS EVENING.  DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MID LEVEL VORT MAX
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO. THIS FEATURE IS PROGD TO MOVE
QUICKLY EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY THIS AFTERNOON.  SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND STRONG HEATING WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF FEATURE.  THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN VT/NH AND WESTERN ME THIS
EVENING.  IF THEY CAN MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY...ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.  LACK OF STRONG
INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS
COULD OCCUR IN STRONGEST CELLS.

..HART/TAYLOR.. 06/17/2006