[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 170605
SWODY1
SPC AC 170604

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF OK AND TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER ERN CO/NERN NM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE
CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER S CNTRL
CANADA WILL AMPLIFY SEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING HEIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BETWEEN THIS
FEATURE AND ERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE A CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SWD THROUGH WRN TX AND NWRN
TX AS WELL AS INTO CNTRL OK. NRN EXTENTION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK BOUNDARY MAY PERSIST FROM SRN MN NEWD
THROUGH NWRN WI.


...OK AND TX...

SEVERE THREAT IN THIS REGION WILL BE SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED BY ONGOING
STORMS. ONGOING STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY CONTINUE EWD
THROUGH OK BUT WILL LEAVE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PARTS OF OK INTO
NRN AND WRN TX. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND MODERATELY STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG IN WAKE OF
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. A SECONDARY IMPULSE MAY ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP IN VICINITY OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM PARTS OF SWRN THROUGH N CNTRL TX INTO SRN AND CNTRL
OK. A BAND OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AROUND
30 TO 35 KT WHICH WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH THE
INSTABILITY AXIS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER N IN KS ALONG SURFACE FRONT IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO VORT MAX. MUCH OF THIS AREA HAS BEEN WORKED OVER
BY OVERNIGHT STORMS. HOWEVER...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON ONCE HEATING COMMENCES ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE
TO RECOVER. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL STORMS...BUT
THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.


...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...

POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE IN WARM
SECTOR E AND S OF REMNANT OUTFLOW/SURFACE BOUNDARIES DURING THE DAY
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY POSSIBLE. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE NRN PLAINS SUPPORTING SWLY
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35 KT.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. PRIMARY STORM MODE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MULTICELLULAR WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL
THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..DIAL/TAYLOR.. 06/17/2006