[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 170059
SWODY1
SPC AC 170058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...

LINEAR MCS EXTENDS FROM SRN NEB SWD THROUGH W CNTRL KS AND WRN OK.
THE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. SOME INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS LIKELY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
IN EXCESS OF 45 KT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING EWD
THROUGH THE CNTR/SRN HIGH PLAINS. STORMS HAVE ORGANIZED A COLD
POOL...AND INCREASING STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE LEADING GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL
JET SHOULD HELP TO SUSTAIN A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THROUGH WRN
OK...CNTRL KS INTO PARTS OF SERN NEB. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ORIGINATING FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IS MOVING NWWD THROUGH
CNTRL OK AND MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH STORMS OVER WRN OK RESULTING
IN A DECREASE IN INTENSITY. FARTHER N ACROSS KS STORMS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST...BUT WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.


OTHER MORE DISCRETE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FARTHER S ALONG PACIFIC
FRONT/DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF WRN TX. THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY NEXT
FEW HOURS AS IT SPREADS EWD. WITH THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THIS REGION...AN OVERALL DECREASE IN THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES.

...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...

STORMS CONTINUE TRAINING NEWD ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
NWRN IA THROUGH SRN MN AND NWRN WI. LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS EMBEDDED
 STRONGER STORMS WITH BOWING STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE.
THE WARM SECTOR S OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THIS
ACTIVITY PERSISTING NEXT FEW HOURS. MODEST EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR
SUGGESTS THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY MULTICELL IN CHARACTER.
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.
REFERENCE SWOMCD 1209 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

..DIAL.. 06/17/2006