[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 160549
SWODY1
SPC AC 160547

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE PLAINS
TODAY. SRN BRANCH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER CO WILL
EJECT NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ALONG NWRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
RIDGE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM ND SWWD THROUGH NERN
CO WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD. THE SRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER NERN
CO IS CURRENTLY BEING REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN A MORE RAPID SWD MOVEMENT THROUGH ERN CO AND EXTREME WRN
KS INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS AREA...

LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S WILL CHARACTERIZE THE
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. TIMING
OF SRN STREAM IMPULSE SUGGESTS STORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLY OR BE
ONGOING...ESPECIALLY IN POST FRONTAL REGION OF NERN CO INTO NWRN KS.
BEST DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FARTHER S. SWLY FLOW IN
THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. AN
AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG IS
EXPECTED FROM WRN TX NEWD THROUGH WRN KS INTO NEB AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF
WRN KS SWD THROUGH WRN TX WHERE DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
BE ENHANCED BY SRN STREAM IMPULSE. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. THE NATURE OF
THE LINEAR FORCING AND ORIENTATION OF THE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT SUGGEST SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. STORMS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
MAINTAINING MORE PERSISTENT DISCRETE STRUCTURES FARTHER SWD INTO W
TX OR IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS AS
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS. SEVERE
THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
INTENSITY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

...UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA...

ONGOING CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY SUPPORTED BY A STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET. A
RESERVOIR OF LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST IN THIS REGION. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE S OF
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY BY MID DAY. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. A 50+ KT MID LEVEL JET
ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL BE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WITH WEAK HIGH LEVEL
FLOW. THIS SUGGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY BE OUTFLOW DOMINANT WITH
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

..DIAL/GUYER.. 06/16/2006