[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 160101
SWODY1
SPC AC 160059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
THROUGH NRN PLAINS...

...CNTRL THROUGH NRN PLAINS...

THIS EVENING A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL ND SWD THROUGH
N CNTRL NEB THEN SWWD INTO NERN CO. AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG EXISTS IN
VICINITY OF THE FRONT FROM NEB NEWD THROUGH ND. A LINE OF SCATTERED
HIGH BASED STORMS PERSISTS FROM WRN KS NEWD INTO S CNTRL NEB. THIS
ACTIVITY DEVELOPED WHERE STRONG MIXING AND HEATING WAS SUFFICIENT TO
WEAKEN THE CAP. THE ATMOSPHERE IS STRONGLY CAPPED EAST OF THESE
STORMS AND SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP MUCH FARTHER
E...BUT MAY CONTINUE TO TRAIN FROM SW TO NE. PRIMARY FOCUS MAY SHIFT
FARTHER N ACROSS CNTRL NEB IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHERE LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS INCREASING DOWNSTREAM FROM A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTING NEWD OUT OF CO. THIS ALONG WITH INTENSIFYING LOW
LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT NEXT FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AS IT
SPREADS NEWD INTO PARTS OF SD. SWLY EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40
TO 45 KT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE WITH
BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WIND AND VERY
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.  

CONVECTION ALSO APPEARS TO BE INCREASING FARTHER N FROM N CNTRL SD
INTO CNTRL ND WITHIN ZONE OF WEAKER ASCENT IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED...AND IT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE WHERE
THESE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO FULLY TAP INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER GIVEN
INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT THAN
FARTHER S. NEVERTHELESS...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE MUCAPE AND STEEP LAPSE APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF
STORMS MANAGE TO EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS LATER THIS EVENING.

..DIAL.. 06/16/2006