[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 152008
SWODY1
SPC AC 152006

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN
PLAINS...

...CNTRL PLAINS...
LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DEEP OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVER SRN ALBERTA
WITH OCCLUDED FRONT ARCING SEWD THEN SWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TO WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE OVER NRN NEB. STALLED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD AND
BISECTS NEB...CONTINUING SWWD TO THERMAL/LEE LOW OVER SERN CO.
GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BECOME FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT AND
NEAR THE WEAK FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS NEB...WHILE STRONGLY HEATED AND
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WAS SITUATED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THERMAL LOW...AND LEE TROUGH...FROM SERN CO/WRN KS SWWD
ACROSS NM/TX. DESPITE INCREASING INSTABILITY AND BROADLY DIFFLUENT
MID LEVEL FLOW AIDING LARGE SCALE UPWARD MOTION ACROSS THE
REGION...CAPPING REMAINS QUITE PRONOUNCED NEAR THE FRONT IN NEB
GIVEN 700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 12-16C RANGE.

RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT INTENSE SURFACE HEATING AND DEEP
MIXING ACROSS ERN CO AND WRN KS HAS LOCALLY OVERCOME INHIBITION IN
THESE AREAS TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION
ROOTED ABOVE 600MB. PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EMERGENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL HIGH-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP AND VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...AND DCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

FARTHER NORTH....ACROSS NEB...SOUNDINGS FROM LBF INDICATED THAT
INHIBITION WAS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND EXPECT LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
DIABATIC FORCING TO CONTINUE TO ERODE THE CAP ACROSS THE REGION AND
SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING. LATEST RUC SUGGESTS THAT
HIGH-BASED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS NWRN KS MAY SPREAD NEWD INTO
SWRN NEB BEFORE 00Z. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED NEAR THE FRONT
AND LOW WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROMOTING UPDRAFT ROTATION/STORM
ORGANIZATION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION WITH AN MCS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING NWD/NEWD THROUGH
LATE EVENING.

...DAKOTAS...
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW EWD PROGRESS INTO STRONGER INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF ND/SD THROUGH TONIGHT. THROUGH LATE
EVENING...LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ARE WEAKER ACROSS THIS AREA THAN
FARTHER SOUTH BUT LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ON THE EDGE OF THE STRONGER
INHIBITION...FROM NCNTRL SD INTO CNTRL/ERN ND THROUGH TONIGHT.
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BUT
MORE MARGINAL ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR BENEATH WEAKER DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
WITH HAIL/WIND/TORNADO POTENTIAL IF DISCRETE STORMS CAN FORM
NEAR/ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 06/15/2006