[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 142000
SWODY1
SPC AC 141959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/ROCKIES
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME ERN NC...

...ERN DAKOTAS...
18Z SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A STRONG INVERSION LOCATED BETWEEN 700- 850
MB ON THE BIS AND ABR 18Z SOUNDINGS...TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING W-E ACROSS SRN SD. LIFT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TODAY HAS
BEEN PROVIDED BY WARM ADVECTION...CENTERED AROUND 700 MB...AND LIFT
FROM THE EXIT REGION OF A NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES JET MAX AND THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET MAX MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 18Z
ABR SOUNDING INDICATED LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...BUT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS STRONGER INSTABILITY
IS LOCATED SOUTH AND WEST OF ABERDEEN. ALTHOUGH THE LIFT FROM THE
COUPLED JETS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE OH VALLEY JET MAX MOVES
FURTHER SEWD...THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 55 KT
OVERNIGHT. THE NET RESULT IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF ELEVATED SEVERE
STORMS SPREADING NWD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM ERN SD INTO ERN
ND...WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.

...NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...
A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN MT/WRN WY WILL SHIFT EWD
INTO ERN MT/WRN ND BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN NERN WY...WITH A N-S ORIENTED COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THE LOW AND FRONT ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY MORNING. STRONG FORCING WAS
EVIDENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS PORTIONS OF WY/MT WITH A BAND OF
STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY ONGOING...SEE WW/S 480 AND 481.
THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD/EWD TONIGHT WITH THE SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTING SEVERE STORMS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES. THE STRONG FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET MAY AID THE STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MCS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WRN SD/ND TONIGHT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE
GREATER THREAT AT THAT TIME.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
FORCING FROM NRN ROCKIES TROUGH WILL BE WEAKER ACROSS THIS AREA THAN
THE NRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING OF A RELATIVELY DRY AIR
MASS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES TO REACH THE
LFC...AROUND 600 MB. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHEAR
PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND THE DEEP MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATES DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

...ERN NC...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ALBERTO...LOCATED NEAR ECG...
SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BETWEEN 22-00Z. UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
ATLANTIC...THE SHEAR AND UPPER 70 TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS.

..IMY.. 06/14/2006