[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 130604
SWODY1
SPC AC 130602

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN PORTIONS OF THE PAC NW INTO
WRN MT...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRL AND NRN FL INTO SERN
GA/ERN SC...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED/SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA THIS PERIOD.  TROUGH/ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED INVOF THE
W COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD AND TAKE ON
A MORE NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME.  DOWNSTREAM...A
LARGE/HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO NWD
ACROSS THE ERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE.  IN
THE EAST...TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA IS FORECAST TO EXPAND SWD ACROSS
THE ERN U.S. AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY APPROACHING THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES DIVES SEWD INTO THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION. 
FINALLY...T.S. ALBERTO -- INITIALLY OVER THE NERN GULF -- IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD TO SRN SC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD -- PER
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM TPC/NHC.

...ERN PORTIONS OF THE PAC NW EWD INTO MT/THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM ERN
PORTIONS OF THE PAC NW EWD INTO WRN MT...AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR E AS
SD...THOUGH STRONG CAP FROM CENTRAL/ERN MT EWD WILL TEND TO HINDER
STORM DEVELOPMENT.

GREATEST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF WRN MT --
WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST AS RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER ADVECTS EWD BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES.  DEGREE OF SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE.

MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS MAY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS PARTS OF MT AND INTO
SD OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS -- POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A
LOW-END SEVERE THREAT.

...CENTRAL AND NRN FL INTO SERN GA/SRN SC...
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES WITHIN STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF T.S.
ALBERTO.  ONE AREA OF ENHANCED THREAT MAY OCCUR ACROSS ERN
SC...WHERE THIS SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE
WHICH SHOULD BE LYING ACROSS SC/GA.  THREAT SHOULD SHIFT NNEWD OUT
OF FL WITH TIME...AS ALBERTO SHIFTS NEWD TOWARD SC.

...PARTS OF SERN TX...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF SE TX THIS
PERIOD...AS WEAK VORT MAX NOW OVER WRN N TX MOVES SEWD INTO THIS
REGION.  WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE FORECAST...AND 30 TO
35 KT NLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS...LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELL OR
WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS MAY EVOLVE -- ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT
FOR HAIL OR LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS.  THREAT SHOULD DIMINSH
THROUGH THE EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

..GOSS.. 06/13/2006