[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 120606
SWODY1
SPC AC 120604

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS W CENTRAL FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WRN HALF
OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...AS ELONGATED UPPER LOW/TROUGH TAKES ON A
MORE NEUTRAL TILT WHILE LINGERING INVOF THE W COAST. 
MEANWHILE...RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY/EXPAND NWD
ACROSS MT AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES.

MEANWHILE...SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE T.S. ALBERTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD
ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND BEGIN TO APPROACH FL.

...ERN PORTIONS OF THE PAC NW EWD INTO NRN ID/WRN MT...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING WWD ACROSS MT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE W COAST WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL TO MODERATE AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY.  AS A RESULT...EXPECT ASSOCIATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR -- INITIALLY ACROSS
PARTS OF WA AND ORE AND THEN INTO NRN ID/WRN MT WITH TIME.  

WITH THIS REGION BENEATH MODERATELY-STRONG SSWLY/SWLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW...RESULTING VEERING/SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS.
 THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH THE
STRONGER CONVECTION -- WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AS
CONVECTION SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS NRN ID AND WRN MT.  

...ERN CO/WRN KS/OK PANHANDLE...
THOUGH RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS THIS REGION WILL RESULT IN A CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED
LATE-AFTERNOON STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN
CO/NERN NM IN PERSISTENT ESELY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.  WEAKENING
CAP/CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AIDED BY A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
FORECAST TO ROTATE EWD ACROSS THIS REGION AROUND UPPER HIGH PER
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

THOUGH MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK BENEATH UPPER
RIDGE...SELYS AT LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VEERING WITH
HEIGHT/SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WIND THREAT PERHAPS
INCREASING INTO THE EVENING AS POSSIBLE MCS EVOLVES/MOVES QUICKLY
SEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

...W CENTRAL FL...
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS FORECAST TO BEGIN APPROACHING W
CENTRAL/NWRN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA LATE IN THE PERIOD...PER
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM TPC/NHC.  AS THIS OCCURS...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR E/NE OF THE CENTER OF ROTATION MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELL WITHIN LARGER-SCALE
CIRCULATION.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS
PERIOD...AS 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING NEAR/N OF FRONT EARLY
IN THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

WITH THIS REGION ON THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...A FEW
STRONG/LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS MAY EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. 
HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES/RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD
 LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL -- AS WELL AS OVERALL STORM INTENSITY.

..GOSS/JEWELL.. 06/12/2006