[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 090555
SWODY1
SPC AC 090554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN ID AND VICINITY...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS
MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE PLAINS AND FLATTENS
THE PERSISTENT RIDGE.  MEANWHILE...TROUGHS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS BOTH THE NWRN AND NERN STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...ERN U.S. COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHILE A SECOND BAROCLINIC ZONE
SETTLES SWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY...
STRONG CAPPING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BENEATH
LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE.  HOWEVER...SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ESEWD INTO ERN NEB DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP INVOF THE MID MO
VALLEY AS CAP WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN NELY
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE/ERN WY N OF SURFACE BAROCLINIC
ZONE.

WITH BELT OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW ACROSS NEB/IA...ANY STORMS
WHICH CAN DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME ORGANIZED/SEVERE -- ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION --
MAINLY N AND E OF LOW ACROSS SRN SD/IA/SRN MN -- AS LOW-LEVEL
JET/WARM ADVECTION INCREASE.  THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH TIME...POTENTIAL FOR HAIL MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.

...SRN ID AND ADJACENT AREAS...
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS
THE ROCKIES...AS AIRMASS BECOMES MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF UPPER
TROUGH.  THOUGH A FEW STRONGER/PULSE-TYPE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGE AREA...SOMEWHAT GREATER SEVERE THREAT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS SRN ID AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE SURROUNDING
STATES.  ACROSS THIS REGION...STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AROUND SRN PORTION
OF UPPER TROUGH SHOULD YIELD SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW 
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS -- ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR
HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

..GOSS.. 06/09/2006