[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 060604
SWODY1
SPC AC 060602

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN
HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ON TUE. ERN STATES
UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD TO THE COAST AS THE LARGE HIGH
BUILDS NEWD THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.  MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY EARLY TUE WILL TURN
SEWD INTO THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION/UPPER MIDWEST BY TUE NIGHT. 
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SPEED MAX OFF THE ORE COAST WILL SHEAR NEWD INTO
THE PAC NW.

AT THE SURFACE...DIFFUSE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...AS TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS
THE LWR MO VLY AND SWWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.

...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS...
A COUPLE OF MCS/S ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...ONE OVER THE WRN GRTLKS REGION AND ANOTHER OVER PARTS OF
ERN OK/WRN AR. ISOLD LARGE HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS MIGHT OCCUR EARLY
TUE MORNING...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE AS THE LLJ WEAKENS AND THE
CONVECTION MOVES EWD INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS.

IN WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION...THE AIR MASS SHOULD BEGIN TO
RECOVER AS LOW-MID 60S DEW POINTS ARE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
PRIMARY COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT. STRONGEST HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE
ALONG WRN EXTENTS OF THE FRONT IN THE SRN PLAINS.  BUT...MODEST
HEATING AND STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM INITIATION OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VLY
EARLY TUE AFTN.  ACTIVITY SHOULD BACKBUILD SWWD INTO THE INSTABILITY
AXIS ACROSS ERN IA...NRN/CNTRL MO AND POSSIBLY SERN KS DURING THE
LATE AFTN.

NWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS OF 30-40 KT ACROSS THIS REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY FROM NRN/CNTRL MO NEWD INTO SRN WI.
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO SPREAD EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY LATER AT NIGHT.

...SRN PLAINS...
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE SWD INTO AT LEAST SRN OK
AND THE TX S PLAINS BY EARLY TUE AFTN. ELY FLOW N OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL MAINTAIN LOW TO MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. 
HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE AND ANTICIPATED SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD TSTM INITIATION LATE IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVE
ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK INTO NWRN TX/TX S PLAINS.  GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE
OF INSTABILITY AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ISOLD SEVERE STORMS
MAY OCCUR.  PRIMARY RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NWWD INTO PARTS OF NERN NM...ERN
CO AND SERN WY AS SELY UPSLOPE FLOW BECOMES ENHANCED N OF THE SRN
PLAINS FRONT TUE AFTN. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FAVOR HIGH-BASED STORMS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
BY LATE AFTN.  GIVEN WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...PULSE MULTICELL STORM
STRUCTURES ARE EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL. 
ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP NEWD ONTO THE ADJACENT WY/WRN NEB/WRN KS PLAINS
TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED AS A SELY LLJ BECOMES ENHANCED BY A MID-LEVEL
JETSTREAK OVER CANADA.

...SRN PLATEAU...
LOW/MID-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE AZ
DESERTS...AS COLLAPSING MCS/S ACROSS SONORA STATE SEND OUTFLOWS NWWD
LATE MON INTO TUE.  THIS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PLATEAU REGION. SELY
MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INCREASE ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF THE H7 RIDGE
AND FAVOR A PROPAGATION OF STORMS INTO THE LWR DESERTS TUE EVENING
WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..RACY/TAYLOR.. 06/06/2006