From swody1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 6 06:06:28 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 06 Jun 2006 02:06:28 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 060604 SWODY1 SPC AC 060602 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ON TUE. ERN STATES UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD TO THE COAST AS THE LARGE HIGH BUILDS NEWD THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY EARLY TUE WILL TURN SEWD INTO THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION/UPPER MIDWEST BY TUE NIGHT. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SPEED MAX OFF THE ORE COAST WILL SHEAR NEWD INTO THE PAC NW. AT THE SURFACE...DIFFUSE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AS TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE LWR MO VLY AND SWWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. ...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS... A COUPLE OF MCS/S ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...ONE OVER THE WRN GRTLKS REGION AND ANOTHER OVER PARTS OF ERN OK/WRN AR. ISOLD LARGE HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS MIGHT OCCUR EARLY TUE MORNING...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE AS THE LLJ WEAKENS AND THE CONVECTION MOVES EWD INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. IN WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION...THE AIR MASS SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER AS LOW-MID 60S DEW POINTS ARE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT. STRONGEST HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG WRN EXTENTS OF THE FRONT IN THE SRN PLAINS. BUT...MODEST HEATING AND STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM INITIATION OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VLY EARLY TUE AFTN. ACTIVITY SHOULD BACKBUILD SWWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS ERN IA...NRN/CNTRL MO AND POSSIBLY SERN KS DURING THE LATE AFTN. NWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS OF 30-40 KT ACROSS THIS REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY FROM NRN/CNTRL MO NEWD INTO SRN WI. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO SPREAD EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY LATER AT NIGHT. ...SRN PLAINS... CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE SWD INTO AT LEAST SRN OK AND THE TX S PLAINS BY EARLY TUE AFTN. ELY FLOW N OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN LOW TO MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE AND ANTICIPATED SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD TSTM INITIATION LATE IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK INTO NWRN TX/TX S PLAINS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ISOLD SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR. PRIMARY RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NWWD INTO PARTS OF NERN NM...ERN CO AND SERN WY AS SELY UPSLOPE FLOW BECOMES ENHANCED N OF THE SRN PLAINS FRONT TUE AFTN. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FAVOR HIGH-BASED STORMS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE AFTN. GIVEN WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...PULSE MULTICELL STORM STRUCTURES ARE EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL. ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP NEWD ONTO THE ADJACENT WY/WRN NEB/WRN KS PLAINS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED AS A SELY LLJ BECOMES ENHANCED BY A MID-LEVEL JETSTREAK OVER CANADA. ...SRN PLATEAU... LOW/MID-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE AZ DESERTS...AS COLLAPSING MCS/S ACROSS SONORA STATE SEND OUTFLOWS NWWD LATE MON INTO TUE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PLATEAU REGION. SELY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INCREASE ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF THE H7 RIDGE AND FAVOR A PROPAGATION OF STORMS INTO THE LWR DESERTS TUE EVENING WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..RACY/TAYLOR.. 06/06/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 6 12:47:50 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 06 Jun 2006 08:47:50 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 061245 SWODY1 SPC AC 061243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPR MS VLY TO THE OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL/SRN RCKYS AND ADJACENT HI PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... SWRN STATES RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD NE ACROSS THE RCKYS THIS PERIOD IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS. DEEP UPR LOW SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY E ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...MAINTAINING DEEP NLY COMPONENT TO FLOW OVER THE MS VLY/ERN PLNS. AT THE SURFACE...DIFFUSE LOW WILL EDGE SLOWLY E INTO WRN ONTARIO AS TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY E/SE ACROSS THE UPR MS/LWR MO VLYS...AND S ACROSS THE SRN PLNS. ...UPR MS VLY TO OZARKS... COLD FRONT EXTENDING S AND SW FROM ONTARIO LOW EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE UPR MS VLY TO THE OZARKS AND ERN PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS. MODERATE /30-40 KT/ WNW TO NNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO BOUNDARY WILL SUPPLY SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED ACTIVITY/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. COLDER AIR ALOFT AND DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW SUGGEST THAT THE DEVELOPMENT WILL FIRST OCCUR OVER UPR MI/WI. LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION IN WAKE OF ON-GOING ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN FOSTER INITIATION SWD ACROSS ERN IA/NW IL AND NRN MO. HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. DEPENDING ON STORM MODE...DEGREE OF DEEP DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT SETUP MAY... HOWEVER...ALSO BECOME MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES IN ERN IA/SW WI/NW IL. FARTHER S ALONG FRONT...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER IN WAKE OF APPARENT MCV NOW OVER NE OK. THE MCV SHOULD CONTINUE SE INTO AR AS AMPLIFYING RIDGE EDGES E INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLNS. SURFACE HEATING WILL...HOWEVER...CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /SBCAPE AOA 2500 J PER KG/ IN MOIST AXIS ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER PARTS OF OK/SE KS AND THE WRN OZARKS. SHOULD FRONTAL UPLIFT BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CAP...RESULTING STORMS COULD FORM A SMALL CLUSTER YIELDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND. ...CNTRL/SRN RCKYS AND ADJACENT HI PLNS... AS COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE SRN PLNS...AXIS OF MOIST POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL SPREAD W TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CNTRL RCKYS. COUPLED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT...STORMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY SSE TO THE WRN EDGE OF THE HI PLNS. WEAK DEEP SHEAR NEAR UPR RIDGE AXIS SHOULD FAVOR PULSE/MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND/HAIL. FARTHER S...WEAKENING FRONT AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW MAY ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED HIGH-BASED STORMS WITH HIGH WIND POTENTIAL IN THE IN ERN NM AND THE TX S PLNS. ...SRN PLATEAU... MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NRN SONORA MCS WILL SPREAD NW ACROSS MUCH OF AZ AND WRN PARTS OF THE SRN PLATEAU TODAY AS LOW LEVEL STORM OUTFLOW REACHES THE AZ DESERTS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASED DIURNAL STORM COVERAGE OVER THE REGION. MODERATE SELY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR NWD PROPAGATION AND POSSIBLE UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OF NRN MEXICAN MOUNTAIN STORMS INTO THE LWR DESERTS OF AZ THIS EVENING...WHERE RESULTING CLUSTER COULD YIELD ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 06/06/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 6 16:29:59 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 06 Jun 2006 12:29:59 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 061627 SWODY1 SPC AC 061626 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN GREAT LAKES SWD TO ERN PORTIONS OF SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHERN AZ... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF ERN CO/NERN NM... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE WRN RIDGE BUILDS NWD INTO NRN ROCKIES WITH CENTER OF CIRCULATION REMAINING OVER SRN CO. COLD UPPER LOW CAROLINA COAST MOVES SLOWLY EWD WHILE A WEAK LOW OFF BAJA CONTINUES TO DRIFT NNWWD TO SW OF SAN BY WED AM. S/WV TROUGH INITIALLY MN CONTINUES EWD ACROSS WRN LAKES WHILE ERN PAC S/W TROUGH APPROACHES PAC NW LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A FRONTAL SYSTEM FOLLOWED BY MUCH DRIER AIR EXTENDS FROM NEAR MN/WI BORDER SWWD INTO CENTRAL KS. A PRONOUNCED BUT RELATIVELY NARROW N/S MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS FROM OK NNEWD INTO WRN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF FRONT. OVERNIGHT ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS WORKED INTO SRN AZ AS UNDER A MDT SELY WIND REGIME. ...WRN GREAT LAKES SWD THRU LOWER MO VALLEY INTO ERN PORTION SRN PLAINS... LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS FORECASTED TO WEAKEN MUCH OF THIS REGION DURING AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. HOWEVER FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY MAX HEATING FROM WI SWD INTO MO. WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO AOA 2000 J/K G AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM THRU THE 80S... ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KT...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE BY MID AFTERNOON. MODE SHOULD BE PRIMARILY MULTICELL GIVEN WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR...HOWEVER WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED WET MICRO BURST WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL. WELL DEFINED MCV NERN OK MOVING SWD AROUND 25KT AND WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD TAP INTO BOUNDARY LAYER BY MID AFTERNOON SERN OK. WITH MLCAPES ABOVE 2000 J/KG THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASED SEVERE THREAT SWD INTO NERN TX/NWRN LA PRIOR TO WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET. ...SRN AZ... MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED SRN HALF OF AZ OVERNIGHT AS SELY FLOW REGIME IS WELL ESTABLISHED TO SW OF CO UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. STEEP LAPSE RATES REMAIN AND WITH STRONG HEATING MLCAPES WILL CLIMB BY MIDAFTERNOON TO AOA 1000 J/KG S OF CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WITH HIGH BASED CONVECTION...DOWNDRAFT CAPES ABOVE 1500 J/KG ARE INDICATED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE BY MID AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER TERRAIN SRN AZ. AND THEN WITH 30-35 KT SELY 500MB FLOW...STORMS WILL QUICKLY PROPAGATE INTO ADJACENT DESERT VALLEYS. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED HABOOB INTO SCENTRAL DESERTS VALLEYS BY THIS EVENING. ...ESLOPES CENTRAL ROCKIES... ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS UPPER HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD...THE LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW IS MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WWD TO FRONT RANGE. STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN A DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG AND JUST E OF FRONT RANGE BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH PRIMARILY A PULSE SEVERE THREAT DEVELOPING. HIGH BASED STORMS WILL INCLUDE NOT ONLY LARGE HAIL BUT A MICRO BURST THREAT UNTIL SUNSET. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY CLOSE TO HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH IN ERN CO AND NERN NM WITH THE VERY WEAK STEERING WINDS. ..HALES/GUYER.. 06/06/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 6 19:59:14 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 06 Jun 2006 15:59:14 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 061957 SWODY1 SPC AC 061955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THAT ARKLATEX REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN AZ... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF CO AND NRN NM... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NC AND NERN SC... ...WRN GREAT LAKES INTO LOWER MO VALLEY... UPPER VORTICITY MAX APPROACHING WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD TOWARD NRN LAKE MI/NRN LOWER MI BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM EXTREME WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SWD INTO WRN WI/ERN IA AND NWRN MO IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD/SEWD THROUGH TONIGHT. PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BANDS FROM WI AND WRN LOWER MI SWD INTO CENTRAL IL HAS LIMITED HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR A NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE FRONT. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM NWRN WI INTO ERN IA...AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY FROM WI INTO NRN IL...MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. GREATER INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FROM ERN IA SWWD INTO NWRN MO AND SOUTH CENTRAL/ERN KS WHERE MLCAPE RANGES TO 2500 J/KG. CAP APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING FROM IA INTO EXTREME NERN KS WHERE STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. ...ERN OK/WRN AR/NERN TX/NWRN LA... MCV OVER EXTREME ERN OK IS CONTINUING TO MOVE SEWD THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FROM ERN OK SWD INTO ERN TX...AND SATELLITE/RADAR/LIGHTNING DATA HAVE INDICATED MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MCV. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL NWLY WINDS HAVE BEEN CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCV...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THIS REGION. ...SRN AZ... ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A DEEP WELL-MIXED LAYER HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SRN AZ. LTG DATA INDICATE A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH OF FHU INTO EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL AZ AND ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SERN AZ. 25-35 KT SELY MID LEVEL WINDS NOTED ON 12Z TUS SOUNDING AND LATEST EMX VAD PROFILE INDICATE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND PERMIT STORMS TO SPREAD NWWD WITH TIME. DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...AND WE WILL BE MONITORING THIS AREA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE ORGANIZED MCS DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...FRONT RANGE FROM NORTH CENTRAL CO INTO NRN NM... UPSLOPE FLOW OVER NERN NM AND SERN CO COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A DEEP WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CENTRAL NM AND SOUTH CENTRAL CO. ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE WEAK WITHIN UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PULSE SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ...ERN NC INTO NERN SC... STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN COLD CORE /-19C AT 500 MB/ OF UPPER LOW LOCATED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE GENERALLY SWD THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING. ..WEISS.. 06/06/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 7 01:06:16 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 06 Jun 2006 21:06:16 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 070103 SWODY1 SPC AC 070101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN IL AND SERN WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SABINE VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SCNTRL AZ DESERTS... ...UPPER MIDWEST... TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ACROSS WI HAVE BEEN THRIVING IN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION. THE STORMS ARE BEING FED BY PARCELS EMANATING FROM AN UPSTREAM STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MID-EVENING AS THEY MOVE ESEWD TO LAKE MI AND FAR NRN IL. VAD WIND PROFILE FROM MKX EXHIBITED A MODEST TURNING IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THUS...A FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE THEY DIMINISH. ...MID-MS VLY AND OZARKS... ISOLD TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED UPSTREAM ACROSS SRN IA WERE DROPPING SWD INTO NRN MO THIS EVE. THE STORMS ARE LIKELY PEAKING IN INTENSITY AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THEY HEAD INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE OZARKS AND ECNTRL MO LATER THIS EVE. UNTIL THEN...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. ...SABINE RVR AREA... MCV ROTATING SWD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX COUPLED WITH STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WERE LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EVOLVING TSTM CLUSTER...NOW MOVING INTO NWRN LA. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT A COLD POOL WAS STRENGTHENING. DEEP NWLY FLOW REGIME AOA 45 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE THE OUTFLOW TO ACCELERATE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...SOME SIGNIFICANT...THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE VLY. ...SCNTRL/SWRN AZ DESERTS... A LONG-LIVED SMALL TSTM CLUSTER CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NWWD ACROSS AREAS NEAR/S OF PHX WITH ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY. PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS THROUGH MID-EVENING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SCNTRL AZ DESERTS. WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH SEASONABLY MOIST COLUMN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS/DUST STORMS. HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... ELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WAS ENHANCING CONVERGENCE VCNTY THE RATON PASS NWD TO ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN SERN CO VCNTY WALSENBURG AND TRINIDAD. GIVEN HOT BOUNDARY LAYER AND MARGINAL MOISTURE A FEW HIGH BASED TSTMS HAVE FORMED THAT MAY GIVE ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH MID-EVENING. BUT...WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BENEATH DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED STORMS. ..RACY.. 06/07/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 7 05:50:22 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 07 Jun 2006 01:50:22 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 070548 SWODY1 SPC AC 070546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 AM CDT WED JUN 07 2006 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST SWD INTO THE TN VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EWD TO THE NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ON WED. THE ERN MEAN TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES SEWD TOWARD THE OH VLY. THE DOWNSTREAM CAROLINAS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. IN THE WEST...A LARGE UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS AS A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES TOWARD THE PAC NW COAST. IN THE LWR LVLS...A WEAK LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRTLKS UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SEWD INTO OH WITH ANOTHER SPOT LOW LIKELY FORMING UPSTREAM ACROSS SRN IND. MEANWHILE...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD REACHING A WRN OH/WRN TN/CNTRL TX LINE DURING WED EVE. A SECOND FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM ONT AND LKSUP WWD ACROSS SD INTO A LOW OVER NRN ID AREA...AND A PAC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF WA/ORE/ID/WRN MT DURING THE PD. ...MIDWEST SWD TO THE TN VLY... A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GRTLKS AND OH VLY REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS MAY RETARD STRONG INSOLATION AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION DOWNSTREAM DURING PEAK HEATING. BUT...SIMILAR TO TUE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A ZONE OF AIR MASS RECOVERY ALONG/IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT FROM IND SWWD INTO WRN TN BY TUE AFTN. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL GRTLKS EARLY IN THE DAY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE SPREADS SEWD. OTHER TSTMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AXIS LATER IN THE AFTN FROM PARTS OF IND...SERN IL AND FAR W KY. INCREASING NWLY FLOW BENEATH THE BASE OF THE UPPER IMPULSE WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR AND SUBSEQUENT STORM ORGANIZATION WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. BUT...TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN IND...WRN KY AND PARTS OF MIDDLE TN WHERE WSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES COINCIDENT WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP A SUFFICIENT COLD POOL DURING THE EVENING TO SUSTAIN A SEVERE THREAT INTO SCNTRL KY AND MIDDLE TN UNTIL LATE EVENING. BUT...STRENGTH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY FOLLOW THE DIURNAL CURVE WITH A DECREASING SEVERE THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS... AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL IN THE NWRN STATES...ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TEND TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ADVECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WWD AND BENEATH THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...ENHANCING THE INSTABILITY. UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS TRAVERSING THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AID IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVE FROM SRN MT/NRN WY EWD INTO THE BLACK HILLS AND NWRN NEB. THE ESELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ONE OR MORE MCS/S ARE LIKELY TO EVOLVE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ MAX AND TO THE N OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NRN NEB AND WRN/CNTRL SD. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL MOVE INLAND ON WED. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED NWD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH. THIS INCREASE IN PW AND PRESENCE OF PRE-EXISTING STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1700 J/KG WED AFTN. AS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SPREAD ATOP THIS INSTABILITY AXIS...TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND VCNTY THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER ERN ORE/EXTREME SERN WA NEWD INTO NRN/CNTRL ID AND WRN MT BY WED MID-AFTN. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. ...SRN PLATEAU... PW VALUES CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SWRN STATES OWING TO ACTIVE CONVECTION ON TUE AND DEEP SLY FLOW. THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL SPREAD NWWD INTO THE GRT BASIN ON WED AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NV AND UT WED AFTN. EARLY DAY CLOUDS MAY DELAY CONVECTION ACROSS SERN AZ UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. ENHANCED TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SRN CO AND THE UPPER LOW OVER BAJA NORTE WILL LIKELY ENCOURAGE STORMS TO QUICKLY PROPAGATE NWWD. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS WILL INCREASE THE RISKS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY HAIL. ...SRN MS VLY... REMNANT MCV WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE SRN LA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN WED. IF CLOUD DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS DOES NOT CONTAMINATE THE HEATING PROCESS...THERE WILL BE A LOW RISK OF ORGANIZED TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE EVE. ..RACY/GRAMS.. 06/07/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 9 05:57:46 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 01:57:46 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 090555 SWODY1 SPC AC 090554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN ID AND VICINITY... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE PLAINS AND FLATTENS THE PERSISTENT RIDGE. MEANWHILE...TROUGHS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS BOTH THE NWRN AND NERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE...ERN U.S. COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE CAROLINA COASTLINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHILE A SECOND BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTLES SWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY... STRONG CAPPING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BENEATH LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ESEWD INTO ERN NEB DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP INVOF THE MID MO VALLEY AS CAP WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN NELY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE/ERN WY N OF SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE. WITH BELT OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW ACROSS NEB/IA...ANY STORMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME ORGANIZED/SEVERE -- ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION -- MAINLY N AND E OF LOW ACROSS SRN SD/IA/SRN MN -- AS LOW-LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION INCREASE. THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME...POTENTIAL FOR HAIL MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING. ...SRN ID AND ADJACENT AREAS... WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AS AIRMASS BECOMES MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. THOUGH A FEW STRONGER/PULSE-TYPE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGE AREA...SOMEWHAT GREATER SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN ID AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE SURROUNDING STATES. ACROSS THIS REGION...STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AROUND SRN PORTION OF UPPER TROUGH SHOULD YIELD SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS -- ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ..GOSS.. 06/09/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 9 12:33:53 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 08:33:53 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 091230 SWODY1 SPC AC 091227 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 AM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NRN/MID MS RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS IA... SURFACE LOW OVER SD EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ESEWD THROUGH THE DAY ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER INTO THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS LOW MOVES ESEWD...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SSWWD INTO ERN WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE. CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN GREATEST NEAR THE LOW CENTER WHERE MODELS MAINTAIN 30-35 KT SSWLY LLJ THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...CAPPING WILL INHIBIT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION FOR MOST OF THE DAY. CONVERGENCE AND ROBUST HEATING MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT/LOW CENTER FROM NERN NEB INTO WRN IA LATE TODAY...WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 50 KT ACROSS THIS REGION WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HIGH-BASED WITH 30 DEGREE T-TD SPREADS MITIGATING TORNADO THREAT...THOUGH DISCRETE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND BUILD INTO A MCS THROUGH THE EVENING WITHIN EXIT REGION OF LLJ ALONG AND NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/BECOMES CAPPED WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...ORIENTATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY RELATIVE TO WNWLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY MAINTAIN A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WELL AFTER DARK SEWD ACROSS IA AND POSSIBLY NERN MO/NWRN IL. FARTHER WEST...UPSLOPE FLOW AND SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 50F SHOULD PREVAIL INTO ERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE AND SWRN SD LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPARENT ON WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING OVER UT SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NEAR PEAK HEATING. INCREASING ASCENT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL WY/NRN CO AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS STRONGER CELLS OVERSPREAD THE HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. OTHER ISOLATED...HIGH-BASED DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR DUE TO STRONG MIXING/HEATING ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FROM WRN KS INTO CENTRAL NEB. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING SHEAR ALONG PERIPHERY OF STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL SUSTAIN A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY. APPEARS STORMS WILL STRENGTHEN BY THE MID AFTERNOON OVER A LARGE PART OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WITHIN FAVORABLE DEEP ASCENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT WHICH WILL SUPPORT STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION... INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS...INCREASING THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. ...PA ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... COLD MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ATOP 50-60F SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD SUPPORT AN AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION TODAY. STRONGER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND NEAR SEVERE LEVELS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY WEAKENING QUICKLY AFTER DARK. ..EVANS/GRAMS.. 06/09/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 9 16:31:14 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 12:31:14 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 091628 SWODY1 SPC AC 091627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM ERN WY EWD TO IA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NE NV...NW UT...SRN ID.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN PA.... ...CENTRAL PLAINS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT... A REMNANT LEE CYCLONE OVER N CENTRAL NEB THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TOWARD SE NEB BY LATE TONIGHT...ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE MO RIVER. MORNING SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES REVEAL A CONTINUATION OF THE RELATIVELY POOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH A SKIN LAYER 60-64 F DEWPOINTS IN A NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS MO/ERN KS. 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE MINIMIZED FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF 95-100 F IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO DECREASE INTO THE 40S AND 50S IN AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES GET THIS WARM AND DEEP MIXING OCCURS. THE POOR MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG/ IN THE DEEPLY MIXED WARM SECTOR...AND SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY IN AREAS N OF THE SURFACE FRONT THAT ARE SHELTERED FROM DEEP MIXING /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG/. THE MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT IN EXTREME NE NEB/SE SD WHERE INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE INITIAL CONVECTION...AND STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO AN MCS TONIGHT ACROSS IA IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG WAA N OF THE SURFACE FRONT. A TORNADO COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH THE INITIAL STORMS...BUT THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS SHOULD BE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FARTHER W...THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF ERN WY...IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING ENEWD FROM SW WY AND WRN CO. CONVECTION FORMING IN THIS AREA MAY PERSIST AND MOVE E WITHIN THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AXIS TO THE N OF THE SFC FRONT...INTO WRN AND NRN NEB. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT EWD SLOWLY OVER WA...WHILE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE EWD FROM ORE TOWARD WRN ID...AND NEWD FROM NV TOWARD NW UT AND SRN ID. RELATIVELY MOIST PROFILES IN 12Z SOUNDINGS AND ONGOING CONVECTION SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. STILL...CLOUD BREAKS ACROSS SRN/SERN ID MAY ALLOW SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION FOR A ISOLATED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...CENTRAL/ERN PA AREA THIS AFTERNOON... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ACROSS CENTRAL PA AS OF MIDDAY. THIS AREA IS DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER WRN PA...WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK ASCENT WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 06/09/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 9 20:11:45 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 16:11:45 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 092005 SWODY1 SPC AC 092004 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN PA AND NJ... ...CENTRAL PLAINS REGION... A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED N CENTRAL NEB EAST OF ANW AT 19Z AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SERN NEB BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SLOWLY SWD TO THE WEST OF THE LOW. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS MEAGER...WITH DEEPER GULF MOISTURE RESTRICTED OFF THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT MLCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THOUGH LESS MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND ERN WY AS LARGE SCALE FORCING HAS INCREASED IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS SRN WY. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT...REFERENCE WW 454. CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN NE NEB/SE SD/NWRN IA/SWRN MN WHERE LIFT WILL BE ACCENTUATED BY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVER SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE FORECAST OF STRONG VEERING WIND PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE INITIAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...TORNADO PROBABILITIES APPEAR LOW DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE STORM BASES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD AID THE STORMS EVOLVING INTO AN MCS TONIGHT...AND THEN SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS IA AND INTO IL AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS. THE MAIN THREAT INITIALLY MAY BE HAIL...BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE OF A WIND THREAT AS THE OUTFLOWS CONSOLIDATE INTO A STRONG COLD POOL. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WA...WHILE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE MOVING NEWD INTO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT FROM NV NEWD INTO WRN MT. MOIST VERTICAL PROFILES WERE RESULTING IN MUCAPES FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AND WHEN COMBINED WITH 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...REFERENCE WW 453 AND 455. THESE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARD MID EVENING AS STORM OUTFLOWS STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ...SERN PA AND NJ... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED WITH THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT. WEAK ASCENT WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL 00Z...WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT IN A FEW STORMS. ...ERN NM NEWD INTO ERN CO AND WRN KS... VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO NEAR 550 MB. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MIX PARCELS TO LFC AND RESULT IN HIGH BASED CONVECTION. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK... THE 45-55F SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..IMY.. 06/09/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 10 01:03:28 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 21:03:28 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 100100 SWODY1 SPC AC 100059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN UT/SERN ID EWD INTO SWRN MN/IA/PARTS OF NWRN IL... ...ERN WY/SRN SD/NEB INTO IA AND VICINITY... POST-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN SD AND INTO ERN WY/THE NEB PANHANDLE...WHERE NELY UPSLOPE FLOW IS SUPPORTING PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITHIN SUFFICIENTLY-UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH DEGREE OF SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS...POST-FRONT/ELEVATED NATURE OF CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT HAIL SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT -- PARTICULARLY AFTER DARK. FURTHER E...STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NERN NEB AND INTO FAR SERN SD/NWRN IA...WHERE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THOUGH GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN N OF SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE -- I.E. ACROSS NERN NEB...SERN SD...AND THE NERN HALF OF IA. AGAIN -- GIVEN MAINLY ELEVATED NATURE OF CONVECTION...EXPECT MAIN THREAT TO BE HAIL...THOUGH LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LESS ELEVATED STORMS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE FRONT. ...NRN UT/SERN ID/PARTS OF MT... THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED VORT MAX CENTERED OVER NRN UT ATTM. COMBINATION OF MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SUGGESTS THAT STRONG/LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THOUGH THREAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT TO LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN WY AND VICINITY. ..GOSS.. 06/10/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 10 06:12:12 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2006 02:12:12 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 100609 SWODY1 SPC AC 100607 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0107 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS ESEWD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE NERN U.S. THIS PERIOD...WHILE MODERATELY-FAST BELT OF WNWLY/ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ESEWD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A GENERALLY W-E BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE SWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WHILE BECOMING ALIGNED ROUGHLY N-S ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY/ERN CO. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE -- ALONG SRN FRINGE OF FASTER FLOW ALOFT -- WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SEVERE CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...SERN MT SEWD INTO WRN KS... COMPLEX SERIES OF UPPER SHORT-WAVE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EWD WITHIN BELT OF RELATIVELY FAST WLY/WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. A RELATIVELY SUBSTANTIAL FEATURE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS BY MIDDAY...AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WILL BE UNDERWAY. THOUGH CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INVOF THIS FEATURE...MODELS SUGGEST EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SWRN SD/ERN WY/WRN NEB AS COMBINATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY AND UPSLOPE FLOW JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF FRONT COMBINE TO PROVIDE A ZONE OF FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THOUGH MODELS DIFFER IN DETAILS OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD...ALL INDICATE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. ALONG WITH THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE GIVEN RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND SUBSTANTIAL VEERING IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD -- PARTICULARLY JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP/SPREAD SEWD...PERHAPS EVOLVING INTO ONE OR MORE MCS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKEWISE SPREAD SEWD INTO KS/SRN NEB...PERHAPS INTO THE MID MO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...CENTRAL AND NRN MO ESEWD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO SHARPEN BAROCLINIC ZONE INVOF THE OH VALLEY. THOUGH MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE BOUNDARY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL AND NRN MO ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY INTO PARTS OF IL/SRN INDIANA AND INTO KY. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION...MODERATELY-STRONG WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS -- WITH A FEW BOWING-TYPE CLUSTERS LIKELY. ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...FAIRLY RAPID ESEWD STORM MOTION ANTICIPATED WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A RELATIVELY ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO EXIST FROM NRN AND CENTRAL MO ESEWD ACROSS SRN IL INTO SWRN INDIANA AND PARTS OF WRN KY. SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A LOW-END THREAT POSSIBLY MOVING E OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO VA/THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 06/10/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 10 12:23:21 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2006 08:23:21 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 101220 SWODY1 SPC AC 101218 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0718 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 VALID 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN\CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... MODELS IN STRONG AGREEMENT IN INCREASING STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF ERN WY AND FAR SERN MT DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN ID. SURFACE LOW OVER N-CENTRAL WY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE WY/MT/SD BORDER REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LEE TROUGH TRAILING SWD ACROSS FAR ERN WY. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S ATTM...THOUGH MIXING DUE TO STRONG HEATING MAY DROP THESE VALUES INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY / MLCAPE AROUND 1500 JKG-1 / WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO ERN WY WITH LITTLE OR NO INHIBITION. THEREFORE...INCREASED DEEP ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON OVER ERN WY/SERN MT. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES WITH 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND 0-1 K SRH IN EXCESS OF 100 M2/S2...ESPECIALLY IN FAR E-CENTRAL WY/WRN NEB PANHANDLE. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE LINES/CLUSTERS WITH STRONG TO SEVERE MCS MOVING ESEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE OH/CUMBERLAND RIVER VALLEYS... SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAINED STALLED ACROSS THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY INTO ERN KY TODAY...WITH WEAK LOW CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING FRONT SAGGING SWD INTO NERN KS/NWRN MO. HEATING AND CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS NEAR THE FRONT FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE DAY AS AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. SURFACE FRONT WILL EXTEND ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF 40-50 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 25-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED LINES GIVEN GENERAL UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE. WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER ERN CO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE ENEWD AND SHOULD ENHANCE ASCENT INTO WRN MO NEAR PEAK HEATING. THIS MAY OVERCOME CAPPING WHERE CONVERGENCE AND HEATING IS STRONGEST INVOF SURFACE FRONT AND ALLOW VIGOROUS...SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY. SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL BUILD UPSCALE INTO A MCS THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG NOSE OF INCREASING SWLY LLJ WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE ESEWD TOWARDS THE MID MS/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS AND LIKELY BACK-BUILD INTO STRONGER LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME INTO WRN MO/ERN KS THROUGH THE EVENING. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 06/10/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 10 16:36:09 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2006 12:36:09 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 101633 SWODY1 SPC AC 101632 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.... ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD OVER SW WY...AND THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE EWD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. IN THE LOW LEVELS...UPSLOPE FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE PRESENT FROM NW KS/NE CO NWWD ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE TO ERN WY. DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT AND MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING WHILE MOVING EWD/SEWD TOWARD SW NEB AND NW KS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER OH VALLEY... A PRONOUNCED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NE KS EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MO TO KY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/ AND MASS CONVERGENCE ARE MAXIMIZED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ IS EXPECTED BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN SEVERAL SMALL CLUSTERS ALONG THE FRONT FROM NE KS/NW MO EWD BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS KS/MO AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF A WEAK MID-HIGH LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING NEWD OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE PHASING OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS CONFINED TO A VERY NARROW REGION ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHERE SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WITH ONE OR MORE MCS/S INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 06/10/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 10 20:00:06 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2006 16:00:06 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 101957 SWODY1 SPC AC 101956 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.... ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD THROUGH SRN WY AND HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WY/EXTREME WRN NEB...REFERENCE WW 457. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AND THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS FROM 45-50 HAS RESULTED IN MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ARE RESULTING IN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...INVERTED-V PROFILES IN THE LOWER 300 MB SUGGEST DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...WHILE THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO SUPPORT HAIL. OUTFLOWS ARE LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE ESEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS. ...ERN KS EWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... AT 19Z...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL KS EWD ACROSS NRN MO...THEN SEWD THROUGH KY INTO NC. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT WEST OF HUT...WHILE WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NERN KS AND NRN MO. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MASS CONVERGENCE ARE ALSO MAXIMIZED NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND MLCAPES SOUTH OF THE ELEVATED CONVECTION ARE NEARING 2000 J/KG. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ROOTED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...OR IF STORMS WILL DEVELOP ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION WHERE CONVERGENCE WOULD BE THE STRONGEST DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. IN EITHER CASE...SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KS/NRN MO BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN WRN KS...EVIDENT ON THE WV IMAGERY...MOVES ESEWD INTO THE AREA. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL... THOUGH THE WIND THREAT SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE DOWNDRAFTS CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS AND TRACK SEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FROM SRN IL SEWD INTO ERN TN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KT AND MLCAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS. ..IMY.. 06/10/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 01:05:24 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2006 21:05:24 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 110102 SWODY1 SPC AC 110100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE S CNTRL APPALACHIANS.... ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EVIDENT IN SURFACE ANALYSIS...EXTENDING IN EAST-WEST FASHION ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S...FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS FEATURE HAS BECOME THE FOCUS FOR MODERATE TO STRONG CONDITIONAL AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY... BENEATH A BELT OF MODERATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES. AIDED BY MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS...SCATTERED AREAS OF ONGOING VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EVOLVING UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE PROGRESSING EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND STRONGEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERLY CENTRAL PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR WEST OF TOPEKA INTO THE RUSSELL KS AREA...WHERE NEW STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE BY 02-03Z. CONVECTION SPREADING EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BEFORE BULK OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON NOSE OF VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET. HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AIR /1.50 TO 1.75 IN/ IS CONCENTRATED ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THIS REGION...AND IS CONTRIBUTING TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 2000 TO 4000 J/KG. THIS WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH HEAVY RAIN...AND...THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT EXCESSIVELY STEEP...RISK OF AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. UNSATURATED LOW/MID-LEVELS EVIDENT IN EVENING RAOBS ALSO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE COLD POOL WITH DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS MISSOURI...NEAR/SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A HAIL/GUSTY WIND THREAT AS THEY DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD IN CONFLUENT REGIME ALONG FRONTAL ZONE INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA AND KENTUCKY. SEVERE EVENTS MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THAN FARTHER UPSTREAM...AS ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REMAINS A BIT DRIER/LESS UNSTABLE. ..KERR.. 06/11/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 05:59:05 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2006 01:59:05 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 110556 SWODY1 SPC AC 110555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...SRN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO THE LEE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES.... AS A JET STREAK CONTINUES TO DIG AROUND THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND ALONG AN AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CANADIAN BORDER. DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION WILL GRADUALLY FOLLOW SUITE...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINNING TO DIG TOWARD NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF SEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE FRONT TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ...INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES. THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY...PARTICULARLY TO THE EAST OF THE OZARKS. ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...INITIATION OF STORMS IS MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL INHIBITION...BUT FORCING ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FARTHER NORTH/WEST...WHILE ONE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ACCELERATES OUT OF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST STATES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ...ANOTHER TROUGH IS ROTATING WESTWARD AROUND THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST RIDGE. MID-LEVEL COOLING WITH UPPER FEATURE COULD AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ...OZARKS INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST... BROADLY CYCLONIC 30-40 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONTAL ZONE. CONVECTION COULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM PARTS OF THE OZARKS INTO KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND IT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH OF A STABILIZING INFLUENCE THIS WILL HAVE LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG HEATING APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND FORCING ALONG THE LEE SLOPES COULD AIDE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW DOWNBURSTS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG FRONTAL ZONE INTO COASTAL AREAS BY THE MID EVENING HOURS. ...ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS... FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED HAIL/WIND THREAT MOST AREAS EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER SHEAR PROFILES...SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...SHOULD EXIST IN MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT...ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO EASTERN WYOMING. MODELS SUGGEST STORMS COULD BECOME RELATIVELY NUMEROUS ACROSS THIS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING ACCOMPANYING A WEAK IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF WESTERN TROUGH TOWARD CREST OF BUILDING CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE. ...FLORIDA... LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES COULD STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA GULF COAST FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BETTER POTENTIAL SHOULD AWAIT APPROACH OF DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ..KERR/JEWELL.. 06/11/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 12:41:12 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2006 08:41:12 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 111237 SWODY1 SPC AC 111235 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CAROLINA COAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...OZARKS TO THE CAROLINAS... EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED E-W FROM CENTRAL/NRN NC INTO SRN MO TODAY. ONGOING MCS WILL LIKELY CONTINUES ESEWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY EARLY TODAY AND MAY INCREASE ON ITS SRN/ERN EDGE AS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AHEAD OF LEADING OUTFLOW. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED EWD ALONG THE FRONT AND INVOF THE SRN APPALACHIANS FROM KY/ERN TN INTO NC AS CAP WEAKENS AND AIR MASS BECOMES MARGINAL TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THE MID AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINAL BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH SFC-6 KM SHEAR OF 20-25 KT INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AS ACTIVITY MOVES ESEWD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO SRN KS... SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE SSELY OVER WRN KS/ERN CO INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE/SERN WY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWER TO MID 50F SURFACE DEW POINTS TO REMAIN IN PLACE/ADVECT NWWD AND SUPPORT AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER THAN SATURDAY...BUT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KT SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AS STORMS INCREASE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN INTO SERN WY/NERN CO AND THE NEB PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. STORMS SHOULD AGAIN ORGANIZE INTO A MCS AND MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BEFORE WEAKENING LATE IN THE EVENING. A SEPARATE CLUSTER OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z OVER SRN KS/FAR NRN OK AS 25-35 KT SSWLY LLJ IMPINGES ON E-W ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN 2000 + J/KG MUCAPE AND 25-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WHICH WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS FROM THIS OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. ...FL... TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS NOW OVER THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO...THOUGH THE SYSTEM REMAINED WEAKLY ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT WITH APPARENT CENTER WELL WEST OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SYSTEM MAY STILL INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY NWD INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY/TONIGHT. THUS WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING SHEAR/BANDS OF STORMS NEARING THE FL COAST LATER TONIGHT IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE FROM TPC. ...PAC NW... UNUSUAL UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION AS WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES SWWD ACROSS SRN BC AND INTO NWRN WA...WHILE STRONGER UPPER LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY NEWD TOWARDS THE SWRN ORE/NRN CA COAST. INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING IMPULSE SHOULD INCREASE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NEAR THE CASCADES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SBCAPE APPROACHES 1000-1500 J/KG. THOUGH SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CORES. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 06/11/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 16:39:28 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2006 12:39:28 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 111636 SWODY1 SPC AC 111634 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM SE KS/NE OK EWD TO NC.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SE KS/NE OK EWD TO THE CAROLINAS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT... THE BELT OF LARGELY ZONAL FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION INVOF THE OH VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER SRN MN/IA WILL MOVE ESEWD TOWARD INDIANA BY LATE TONIGHT WHILE A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM EJECTS EWD FROM IL TO KY THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING NC OVERNIGHT. THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT...REPRESENTING A COMBINATION OF THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SEVERAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...EXTENDS FROM NRN OK/AR ENEWD INTO CENTRAL KY...AND THEN ESEWD TO NE NC. A SEPARATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND NEAR THE MCV MOVING TOWARD KY THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG ALONG THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES AOA 90 F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LARGELY N OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE MULTICELL CLUSTERS. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT IN NC WHICH WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE SRN FRINGE OF THE 30-40 KT MIDLEVEL WNWLY FLOW...WHERE MARGINAL SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS MAY OCCUR. DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS FROM MID-LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE WWD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS LESS CERTAIN ACROSS KS/OK DUE TO STRONGER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO/WY...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES OVER THIS AREA...CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE TIED STRONGLY TO THE FRONT IN CO...AND PERHAPS THE CHEYENNE AND PALMER RIDGES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS /STRONGER WITH NWD EXTENT FROM CO INTO WY/ AND A RELATIVELY DEEP SURFACE MIXED LAYER...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. STORMS MAY PROPAGATE EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH CONVECTION AIDED BY A WEAK SLY/SELY LLJ. ..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 06/11/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 20:00:40 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2006 16:00:40 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 111957 SWODY1 SPC AC 111956 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SE KS/NE OK EWD TO CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER ROCKIES AS TROUGH DEEPENS OFF W COAST. DOWNSTREAM S/WV TROUGH CROSSING MID MS RIVER VALLEY PRECEEDED BY MCV NEAR EVV. BAND OF MDT WLYS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS MID MS RIVER TO MID ATLANTIC COAST. COMBINATION OF BAROCLINIC AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXTENDS FROM VICINITY NC/VA BORDER WNWWD ACROSS KY AND THEN WWD TO ALONG OK/KS BORDER. VERY WARM AND MDTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING TO S OF BOUNDARIES WITH LITTLE REMAINING CIN E OF MS RIVER. ...TN VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC STATES... THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ALONG AND S OF BOUNDARIES FROM NC TO KY REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. GENERALLY 30-40KT OF SHEAR THIS REGION COUPLED WITH MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND/HAIL WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP. MORE CONCENTRATED SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS JUST AHEAD OF THE MCV NOW MOVING ESEWD ACROSS WRN KY WHERE SHEAR IS GREATEST AND SHORT LINES/BOWS COULD DEVELOP. ...MID MS VALLEY WWD TO SRN KS/NERN OK... E/W BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCUS FOR INITIATION OF AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. SOMEWHAT WEAKER BUT SUFFICIENT SHEAR ALONG THIS PORTION OF BOUNDARIES FOR PRIMARILY MULTI-CELL STORMS. WITH MOISTURE POOLING VICINITY BOUNDARY MLCAPES CLIMBING ABOVE 2000 J/KG. WEAKENING CAP FOR NEAR SURFACE BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 21Z WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... UPSLOPE E/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ERN CO/SERN WY. STRONG HEATING HAS ABOUT ELIMINATED CIN ALONG AND JUST E OF HIGHER TERRAIN CO/SERN WY. WITH 35-40KT OF SHEAR SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY AS STORMS PROPAGATE E/SE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN. LARGE HAIL/DOWNBURSTS WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT UNTIL LATE EVENING...AFTER WHICH DIURNAL COOLING WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING TREND. ..HALES.. 06/11/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 00:33:55 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2006 20:33:55 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 120031 SWODY1 SPC AC 120029 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0729 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VALLEY EWD TO COASTAL NC... ...ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ATTM FROM ERN WY SWD INTO NERN NM...WITHIN ZONE OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /1000 TO 1500 J/KG CAPE/ COMBINED WITH SHEAR MARGINALLY-SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS SUGGESTS THAT THREAT FOR HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE. THREAT MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS INTENSIFYING SELY LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS EVENING...THOUGH ERN EXTENT OF THREAT INTO THE PLAINS WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK OF INSTABILITY FROM N CENTRAL KS NWWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. ...TN VALLEY EWD TO THE NC COAST... TWO MAIN CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS -- ONE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND THE OTHER OVER CENTRAL AND ERN NC -- ARE ONGOING ATTM...WITHIN BELT OF MODERATE WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. STORMS OVER KY APPEAR TO BE BUILDING WWD INTO WRN TN...WITHIN ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE FRONT. AMPLE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE -- POSSIBLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD WANE WITH TIME LATER THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE THREAT ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. ...SRN ID AND VICINITY... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SRN ID...IN MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE/MODERATELY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH SHORT-WAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THIS REGION OVERNIGHT...A STRONGER STORM OR TWO -- AND ASSOCIATED LOCAL SEVERE THREAT -- MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ..GOSS.. 06/12/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 05:57:31 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 01:57:31 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 120554 SWODY1 SPC AC 120553 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS W CENTRAL FL... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...AS ELONGATED UPPER LOW/TROUGH TAKES ON A MORE NEUTRAL TILT WHILE LINGERING INVOF THE W COAST. MEANWHILE...RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY/EXPAND NWD ACROSS MT AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. MEANWHILE...SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE T.S. ALBERTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND BEGIN TO APPROACH FL. ...ERN PORTIONS OF THE PAC NW EWD INTO NRN ID/WRN MT... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING WWD ACROSS MT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE W COAST WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL TO MODERATE AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ASSOCIATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR -- INITIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF WA AND ORE AND THEN INTO NRN ID/WRN MT WITH TIME. WITH THIS REGION BENEATH MODERATELY-STRONG SSWLY/SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...RESULTING VEERING/SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS. THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION -- WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AS CONVECTION SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS NRN ID AND WRN MT. ...ERN CO/WRN KS/OK PANHANDLE... THOUGH RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS THIS REGION WILL RESULT IN A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED LATE-AFTERNOON STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN CO/NERN NM IN PERSISTENT ESELY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. WEAKENING CAP/CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AIDED BY A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO ROTATE EWD ACROSS THIS REGION AROUND UPPER HIGH PER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THOUGH MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK BENEATH UPPER RIDGE...SELYS AT LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VEERING WITH HEIGHT/SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WIND THREAT PERHAPS INCREASING INTO THE EVENING AS POSSIBLE MCS EVOLVES/MOVES QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. ...W CENTRAL FL... TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS FORECAST TO BEGIN APPROACHING W CENTRAL/NWRN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA LATE IN THE PERIOD...PER LATEST GUIDANCE FROM TPC/NHC. AS THIS OCCURS...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR E/NE OF THE CENTER OF ROTATION MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELL WITHIN LARGER-SCALE CIRCULATION. ...COASTAL CAROLINAS... COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS PERIOD...AS 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING NEAR/N OF FRONT EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS REGION ON THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...A FEW STRONG/LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS MAY EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES/RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL -- AS WELL AS OVERALL STORM INTENSITY. ..GOSS/JEWELL.. 06/12/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 06:09:06 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 02:09:06 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 120606 SWODY1 SPC AC 120604 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS W CENTRAL FL... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...AS ELONGATED UPPER LOW/TROUGH TAKES ON A MORE NEUTRAL TILT WHILE LINGERING INVOF THE W COAST. MEANWHILE...RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY/EXPAND NWD ACROSS MT AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. MEANWHILE...SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE T.S. ALBERTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND BEGIN TO APPROACH FL. ...ERN PORTIONS OF THE PAC NW EWD INTO NRN ID/WRN MT... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING WWD ACROSS MT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE W COAST WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL TO MODERATE AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ASSOCIATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR -- INITIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF WA AND ORE AND THEN INTO NRN ID/WRN MT WITH TIME. WITH THIS REGION BENEATH MODERATELY-STRONG SSWLY/SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...RESULTING VEERING/SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS. THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION -- WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AS CONVECTION SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS NRN ID AND WRN MT. ...ERN CO/WRN KS/OK PANHANDLE... THOUGH RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS THIS REGION WILL RESULT IN A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED LATE-AFTERNOON STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN CO/NERN NM IN PERSISTENT ESELY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. WEAKENING CAP/CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AIDED BY A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO ROTATE EWD ACROSS THIS REGION AROUND UPPER HIGH PER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THOUGH MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK BENEATH UPPER RIDGE...SELYS AT LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VEERING WITH HEIGHT/SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WIND THREAT PERHAPS INCREASING INTO THE EVENING AS POSSIBLE MCS EVOLVES/MOVES QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. ...W CENTRAL FL... TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS FORECAST TO BEGIN APPROACHING W CENTRAL/NWRN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA LATE IN THE PERIOD...PER LATEST GUIDANCE FROM TPC/NHC. AS THIS OCCURS...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR E/NE OF THE CENTER OF ROTATION MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELL WITHIN LARGER-SCALE CIRCULATION. ...COASTAL CAROLINAS... COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS PERIOD...AS 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING NEAR/N OF FRONT EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS REGION ON THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...A FEW STRONG/LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS MAY EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES/RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL -- AS WELL AS OVERALL STORM INTENSITY. ..GOSS/JEWELL.. 06/12/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 12:35:23 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 08:35:23 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 121232 SWODY1 SPC AC 121231 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NWRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES... STRONG SLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE PAC NW TODAY...EAST OF THE CASCADES...AS 50+ KT MID LEVEL JET ROTATES AROUND UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE NRN CA COAST. DEEP ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL OVERSPREAD A SURFACE FRONT/LOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER ERN ORE/WA THROUGH THE DAY. AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES OF WRN MT. STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH FORECAST SFC-6 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND FROM 40-45 KT ACROSS WRN MT. THIS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND FAST MOVING LINES THROUGH THE EVENING. ...FL... STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. ALBERTO IS ALREADY OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE SRN/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREA VWP/S INDICATING 2KM WINDS NEAR 30 KT. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO HEAT ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF ALBERTO/S CLOUD CANOPY WITH MID/UPPER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF SRN AND CENTRAL FL. GIVEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS TODAY. IN ADDITION...SURFACE THETA-E GRADIENT WAS EVIDENT EXTENDING FROM W-CENTRAL INTO NERN FL THIS MORNING WHICH MAY INCREASE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND ANY TORNADO POTENTIAL IF IT SURVIVES DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS PRIMARY CIRCULATION CENTER BECOMES BETTER DEFINED AND APPROACHES THE BIG BEND REGION AS FORECAST BY LATEST TPC GUIDANCE. ...CAROLINAS... STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SAGGING SSEWD ACROSS NC AND THE SRN APPALACHIANS TODAY WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING STRONG HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. REGION REMAINS UNDER SRN FRINGE OF MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAINING 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THIS WILL PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINES AND CLUSTERS OF STORMS...AND POSSIBLY A SUPERCELL OR TWO...AS ACTIVITY INCREASES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS AS THEY TRACK EWD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS TODAY AS MID/UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL LIMIT ASCENT AND WEAKEN SHEAR AS COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ADEQUATE FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AS SSELY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN 25-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME ORGANIZATION TO STORMS AS THEY DRIFT SSEWD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 06/12/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 16:39:10 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 12:39:10 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 121636 SWODY1 SPC AC 121635 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR NW/NRN ROCKIES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/N FL.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SC/NC.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS ERN CO/NE NM.... ...INTERIOR NW/NRN ROCKIES AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT... A DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE PAC COAST...WITH EMBEDDED LOWS NEAR VANCOUVER AND WSW OF SFO...WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW WITH ONLY SLOW EWD PROGRESS. THE VANCOUVER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SWWD AND THE LOW WSW OF SFO SHOULD EVOLVE INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE WITH TIME. E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A BELT OF 45-60 KT SLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA WILL SPREAD NWD FROM CENTRAL CA TO ERN WA/ORE AND ID BY LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW AND N-S BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN ORE/WA NWD INTO THE ID PANHANDLE AND WRN MT. SURFACE ANALYSES AND 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG SLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR TO SUPPORT LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AND OBSERVED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES ALSO SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...FL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT... TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO MAY REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL TOMORROW ALONG THE FL BIG BEND /SEE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM NHC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION/. E OF THE CYCLONE CENTER...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /WITH 76-78 F DEWPOINTS/ IS OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL AND SRN FL PENINSULA. THIS MOISTURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR CELLULAR STORMS OVER CENTRAL FL...WHILE LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG OVER CENTRAL AND W CENTRAL FL /0-3 KM SRH OF 250-300 M2/S2/. THE RICHER MOISTURE AND STRONGER SHEAR SHOULD DEVELOP SLOWLY NWD WITH TIME...WITH THE THREAT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL FL TODAY AND POTENTIALLY INTO N FL OVERNIGHT. ...CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON... A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ESEWD FROM THE OH VALLEY/APPALACHIANS TOWARD VA/NC. ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONT ACROSS NC...WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT WHERE THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WILL OVERLAP THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. ...ERN CO AREA... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BACKED WWD INTO ERN CO IN A POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE...LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES CONTINUE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM FROM THE DEEP PAC COAST TROUGH. A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN UT/NRN AZ SHOULD REACH THE FRONT RANGE OF CO BY EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD BE TIED STRONGLY TO THE W EDGE OF THE MOISTURE AND THE HIGH TERRAIN. FORECAST WIND PROFILES/VERTICAL SHEAR APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW STRONG/DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS WITH STORMS MOVING SLOWLY SSEWD. ..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 06/12/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 20:02:12 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 16:02:12 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 121959 SWODY1 SPC AC 121958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTERIOR PACIFIC NW... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FL... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WRN U.S. AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHARPEN JUST OFFSHORE WITH RIDGE BUILDING NWD THRU ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM ONE S/WV TROUGH EXITS MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES SEWD INTO UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS SEWD THRU CENTER OF CONUS SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM CENTRAL NC WWD ACROSS NRN AR TO OK CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY SWD. TRACK OF INTENSIFYING T.S. ALBERTO WILL TAKE THE CENTER INLAND POSSIBLY BY EARLY TUE NERN GULF COAST. ...CAROLINAS WWD ACROSS GA/AL... THUNDERSTORMS SOME SEVERE HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN REGION OF MDTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN E OF APPALACHIANS WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30KT ON SRN FRINGE OF WLYS SUPPORTS MULTICELL STORM MODE. PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE ELY FLOW OF MOISTURE PERSISTS ERN CO/NERN NM. DEEP LAYER VEERING SHEAR PROFILES AND MLCAPES RISING TO 1500 J/KG WILL FUEL A FEW SUPERCELLS AS STORMS PROPAGATE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN INTO PLAINS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DOWNBURSTS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...PAC NW... WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS INTERIOR PAC NW...CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY SPREADING NWD THRU ERN WA/OR IS SLOWLY THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS. THUNDERSTORMS OVER OR CASCADES WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP/PROPAGATE NEWD ACROSS ERN OR INTO SERN WA. ADDITIONAL STORMS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ERN OR WILL BE IN FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM ROTATION. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH ANY SUPERCELL ALTHOUGH BRIEF TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. WITH AIRMASS DESTABILIZING FURTHER BY LATE AFTERNOON SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS ERN WA AND WRN MT. ...SERN U.S... WITH T.S. ALBERTO INTENSIFYING AND HEADING FOR THE GULF COAST OF NRN FL...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND POSSIBLY INCREASE TONIGHT. FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE ATTM WRN FL EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT AS T.S. ALBERTO APPROACHES THE COAST BETWEEN TPA AND TLH. ..HALES.. 06/12/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 00:57:52 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 20:57:52 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 130054 SWODY1 SPC AC 130052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF WA/ORE INTO WRN MT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FL... ...PARTS OF THE PAC NW INTO NRN AND CENTRAL ID/WRN MT... A FEW STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE FROM PARTS OF ERN OREGON NEWD INTO WRN MT...WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VEERING/SHEARED FLOW WITH HEIGHT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. THOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SEVERE THREAT WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. ...HIGH PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM NERN WY SSWWD INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...WITHIN MARGINALLY- TO MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS. DESPITE THE FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A 30 KT SLY/SELY LOW-LEVEL JET THIS EVENING...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL NOT INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE SLOWLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...FL... ALBERTO IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE ERN GULF OFF THE NW FL COAST...WITH STRONGER BAND OF CONVECTION STILL W OF THE FL W COAST. A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED W OF MLB...AND N OF TPA...SO A SLIGHTLY GREATER THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SEEMS TO BE EVOLVING. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN FL. ...PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INVOF COLD FRONT FROM THE CAROLINAS WSWWD TO SERN LA. CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY BEGUN A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY...AND EXPECT THIS GENERAL TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE. IN THE MEAN TIME...EXPECT A FEW STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION...WITHIN MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. ..GOSS.. 06/13/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 06:06:58 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 02:06:58 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 130604 SWODY1 SPC AC 130602 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN PORTIONS OF THE PAC NW INTO WRN MT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRL AND NRN FL INTO SERN GA/ERN SC... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED/SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD. TROUGH/ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED INVOF THE W COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD AND TAKE ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME. DOWNSTREAM...A LARGE/HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO NWD ACROSS THE ERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE. IN THE EAST...TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA IS FORECAST TO EXPAND SWD ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY APPROACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DIVES SEWD INTO THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION. FINALLY...T.S. ALBERTO -- INITIALLY OVER THE NERN GULF -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD TO SRN SC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD -- PER LATEST GUIDANCE FROM TPC/NHC. ...ERN PORTIONS OF THE PAC NW EWD INTO MT/THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE PAC NW EWD INTO WRN MT...AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR E AS SD...THOUGH STRONG CAP FROM CENTRAL/ERN MT EWD WILL TEND TO HINDER STORM DEVELOPMENT. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF WRN MT -- WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST AS RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ADVECTS EWD BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES. DEGREE OF SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS MAY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS PARTS OF MT AND INTO SD OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS -- POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT. ...CENTRAL AND NRN FL INTO SERN GA/SRN SC... STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITHIN STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF T.S. ALBERTO. ONE AREA OF ENHANCED THREAT MAY OCCUR ACROSS ERN SC...WHERE THIS SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH SHOULD BE LYING ACROSS SC/GA. THREAT SHOULD SHIFT NNEWD OUT OF FL WITH TIME...AS ALBERTO SHIFTS NEWD TOWARD SC. ...PARTS OF SERN TX... THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF SE TX THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK VORT MAX NOW OVER WRN N TX MOVES SEWD INTO THIS REGION. WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE FORECAST...AND 30 TO 35 KT NLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS...LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELL OR WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS MAY EVOLVE -- ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL OR LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THREAT SHOULD DIMINSH THROUGH THE EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ..GOSS.. 06/13/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 12:33:40 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 08:33:40 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 131230 SWODY1 SPC AC 131228 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND WRN MT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FL INTO SRN GA/SRN SC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL SD... ...NRN ROCKIES INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WRN MT... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS AMPLIFIED OVER THE PAC NW. ASSOCIATED 50+ KT SLY MID LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE GREAT BASIN AND NOSE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 C/KM. THIS WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION IN UPDRAFTS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WITHIN MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH OVERNIGHT MODELS APPEAR TOO AGGRESSIVE IN FORECASTING LOWER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO WRN MT TODAY...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS UTILIZING MID 50F DEW POINTS STILL GENERATE 2000 J/KG MLCAPE BY 21Z. IN ADDITION...SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN ID AND INTO WRN MT INCREASING CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG AND JUST EAST OF ITS TRACK. APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS STORMS INCREASE BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL ID/WRN MT...AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL MT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. HAIL...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE QUITE LARGE...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALL EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS TODAY. ...WRN/CENTRAL SD... RUC AND NAM/NAMP CONTINUE TO GENERATE CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG HEATING ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO STALL E-W ACROSS SD TODAY. 4KM NMM/WRF ALSO LIKES THIS SOLUTION. APPEARS HEATING...CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE MAY ALLOW CAP TO BREAK NEAR THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS HOLD NEAR 60F JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. FORECAST SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD THIS ACTIVITY ROOT INTO ESELY SURFACE WINDS WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 35-40 KT. FARTHER EAST...DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE QUESTIONABLE ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...EXIT REGION OF 30-40 KT SLY LLJ SHOULD ALLOW A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST EWD OUT OF WRN SD OR DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING INTO CENTRAL SD. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE ELEVATED AFTER DARK WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. ...FL INTO THE COASTAL SC... T.S. ALBERTO APPEARS TO BE MAKING LANDFALL THIS MORNING NEAR THE FL BIG BEND REGION...WITH LITTLE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION NEAR THE STORM CENTER OVERNIGHT. EXCEPTION IS ALONG WRN PORTION OF CIRCULATION IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IS OVERSPREADING NRN FL INTO SRN GA JUST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. APPEARS LINE OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS NOW EXTENDING FROM E-CENTRAL INTO SWRN FL IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CONVERGENCE AXIS WITH WINDS VEERING TO SWLY IN ITS WAKE OVER W-CENTRAL FL. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR LOW LEVEL ROTATION MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY PERSIST INTO NRN FL AND SRN GA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO COASTAL SC LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUE AHEAD OF ALBERTO. HERE...LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS ENHANCED DUE TO ENELY SURFACE WINDS NORTHEAST OF ALBERTO/S CENTER. ...NRN GREAT BASIN... HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ACROSS NRN NV LATE TODAY AND SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD INTO NRN UT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS DEEP ASCENT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SMALL AREA OF MLCAPE WILL DEVELOP ABOVE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SUPPORTING A THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURSTS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL FROM STRONGER CORES. ...PARTS OF SERN TX... THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF SE TX THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK VORT MAX NOW OVER NRN TX MOVES SSEWD INTO THIS REGION. WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE FORECAST...AND 30 TO 35 KT NLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS...LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELL OR WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS MAY EVOLVE -- ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL OR LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 06/13/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 16:39:42 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 12:39:42 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 131636 SWODY1 SPC AC 131634 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR NRN ID AND WRN MT THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR ERN NV/WRN UT.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR WRN SD.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SE ATLANTIC COAST.... ...NRN ID/WRN MT TODAY INTO TONIGHT... ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING INVOF THE ID PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NWD MOVING MID LEVEL SPEED MAX AND A N-S BAROCLINIC ZONE. GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO THE E OF THE ONGOING STORMS IN THE RELATIVELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NRN ID AND WRN MT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL RESULT IN MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SLY SHEAR...WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WITHIN A BROKEN N-S BAND ACROSS ID/WRN MT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. ...SE ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... T.S. ALBERTO IS MAKING LANDFALL IN APALACHEE BAY AND WILL CONTINUE NEWD ACROSS SE GA INTO SC BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP DRY INTRUSION S THROUGH E OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THIS DRYING HAS LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER NE FL/SE GA. THE MORE INTENSE STORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE NOSE OF THE DRY SLOT NEAR THE SE GA COAST...IN THE AREA OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION INLAND ACROSS SE GA/SC TO SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALONG AND S OF THE SEPARATE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN SC. ...WRN SD AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT... SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW STALLED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN SD NEAR I-90...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY. THE 12Z RAPID CITY SOUNDING WAS STRONGLY CAPPED WITH A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 90S...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW AND SURFACE HEATING OVER THE BLACK HILLS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL DRIFT EWD/SEWD INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG/ AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ...ERN NV/WRN UT THIS AFTERNOON... THE LOW LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY ACROSS ERN NV AND UT /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S/...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NNEWD OVER SRN NV IN ADVANCE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING NNEWD FROM CA. MID LEVEL CONVECTION IS ONGOING WITHIN THIS PLUME...AND THE CONVECTION MAY BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILES AND STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STORMS IN A BAND ACROSS EXTREME ERN NV INTO W CENTRAL AND NW UT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY. ...SE TX THIS AFTERNOON... A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING SWD FROM ERN OK/AR TOWARD E TX AND LA. AT THE SURFACE...A NW-SE ORIENTED COLD FRONT HAS BACKED SWWD INTO N CENTRAL AND SE TX. CONVERGENCE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE SWWD. A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/OUTFLOW WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ..THOMPSON/PETERS.. 06/13/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 20:08:04 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 16:08:04 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 132005 SWODY1 SPC AC 132003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 VALID 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST AND NRN ROCKIES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF SD... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ... ...INTERIOR NORTHWEST/NRN ROCKIES... VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 60-70KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX WERE SPREADING NEWD ACROSS SRN GREAT BASIN ATTM. FORCING AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ACT ON INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS ID/MT TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP SLY SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE STORMS SHOULD EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN MT WHERE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW HAS BROUGHT GREATER MOISTURE WWD...AND STRONG HEATING WILL BOOST CAPE VALUES AHEAD OF THE STRONGER FORCING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH...BAND OF ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE HAS INDUCED MID-LEVEL CONVECTION ACROSS ERN NV. LIGHTNING DATA SUGGESTS THAT CG STRIKES HAVE RECENTLY TAPERED OFF WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVER SRN NV. HOWEVER...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE CLOUD BAND...COUPLED WITH HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE APPROACHING IMPULSE...SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING NORTH THROUGH EVENING. GIVEN STRONG WIND FIELDS ALREADY PRODUCING SFC GUSTS AROUND 40KT...EVEN WEAK INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DOWNBURST GUSTS NEARING 50KT. ...SD... ISOLATED STORMS...PROBABLY ROOTED AROUND 700MB...HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED ACROSS NERN SD. SLOPED ASCENT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID LEVEL JET STREAK WAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS DEVELOPMENT WHERE LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR HAIL. FARTHER SOUTHWEST... LATEST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INHIBITION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ALONG INVERTED TROUGH AND LEE TROUGH WHERE HEATING AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE SURFACE-BASED STORMS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS...AND WITHIN DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS ACROSS ERN WY...AND THEN MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING TO SUSTAIN MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY APPEARS LIMITED...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND STRENGTH OF SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NUMBER OF INTENSE AND ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS LIKELY FROM THIS ACTIVITY. A SMALL MCS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE AND SPREAD ESEWD ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ...SOUTHEAST COAST... KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITHIN NERN QUADRANT OF ALBERTO CIRCULATION REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS. A COUPLE OF BRIEF BUT DAMAGING TORNADOES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED NEAR THE COAST AND THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD PERSIST ALONG THE COAST OF SERN GA AND SC THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT UNTIL WIND FIELD WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM SLOWLY SLACKENS. ...SERN TX... CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAK WIND SHIFT SETTLING SWWD ACROSS ERN TX WAS AIDING ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF HOU ATTM. MEANWHILE... A 40-50KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX WAS SPREADING SWD ATOP THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR. EXPECT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A CHANCE FOR DAMAGING MICROBURSTS AND HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 06/13/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 01:07:00 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 21:07:00 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 140104 SWODY1 SPC AC 140102 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ID/WRN MT AND VICINITY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN SD... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE SERN U.S. COAST... ...ID/WRN MT AND VICINITY... STRONG /AROUND 70 KT/ SSWLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK CONTINUES SPREADING ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. DEGREE OF SHEAR HAS SUPPORTED ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...WITH THREAT LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST OVER NWRN MT...WHERE NUMEROUS STORMS ARE ONGOING WITHIN MODERATELY-UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. ALONG WITH THREAT FOR HAIL...LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. EWD EXTENT OF THREAT INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF MT WILL LIKELY BE HINDERED BY A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT SOME ENEWD EXPANSION OF CONVECTION --ACROSS ERN ID/NWRN WY AND INTO W CENTRAL MT -- IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. ...WRN SD... AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES ATTM OVER SWRN SD...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT STILL HINDERED BY CAPPING INVERSION. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AMPLE SHEAR SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR MAINLY HAIL WITH ANY ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. ...NERN FL NNEWD TO PARTS OF SRN AND ERN NC... A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUES WITHIN CIRCULATION OF ALBERTO -- PARTICULARLY FROM PARTS OF SERN GA NNEWD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THREAT SHOULD SPREAD AS FAR N AS SRN NC LATE...AS ALBERTO CONTINUES MOVING NNEWD. ...MIDDLE TX COAST... A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AHEAD OF SWD-MOVING VORT MAX NOW OVER E CENTRAL TX...WITHIN AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR. THOUGH SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS EVENING...A LOCAL SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ..GOSS.. 06/14/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 06:15:23 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 02:15:23 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 140610 SWODY1 SPC AC 140609 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN MT/NRN WY INTO THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SYNOPSIS... SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE/AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS WRN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM...CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY...WHILE MAIN AXIS OF ERN TROUGH MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE/SRN ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SD. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NRN PLAINS/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL/ERN SD BY 15/12Z. FURTHER E...ALBERTO IS FORECAST BY NHC/TPC TO MOVE FROM ERN SC NEWD ACROSS ERN NC...AND THEN OFF THE NERN NC COAST AROUND 15/OOZ. ...NRN WY/CENTRAL AND ERN MT EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS/PARTS OF NEB... CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD INVOF UPPER TROUGH...WHILE STRONGLY-CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MT AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BENEATH STRONG UPPER RIDGE. WARM SECTOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL MT/NRN WY AS CAP WEAKENS NEAR SURFACE LOW/AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...WITHIN DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. THOUGH FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE MERIDIONAL/SLY...SELY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS COMBINED WITH INCREASING WIND SPEED WITH HEIGHT WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED/ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WRN SD BY LATE AFTERNOON INVOF WARM FRONT -- AND INVOF THE BLACK HILLS...WHERE PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL UVV SHOULD LOCALLY WEAKEN CAP. CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME INTO THE EVENING...AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADS EWD...THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE/SPREAD EWD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...REACHING THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS/NEB BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...ERN CAROLINAS... ALBERTO -- INITIALLY PROGGED OVER ERN SC -- WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEWD WITH TIME...AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE NC COAST DURING THE EVENING. PRIOR TO THIS...MOIST/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THIS REGION COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR E/NE OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION SUGGESTS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..GOSS.. 06/14/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 12:35:11 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 08:35:11 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 141232 SWODY1 SPC AC 141230 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0730 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FAR NERN SC ACROSS ERN NC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...ERN NC/FAR NERN SC... REMNANTS OF ALBERTO REMAIN CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SC THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD INTO NERN NC. 12Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES PRESSURE RISES HAVE INCREASED IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THIS SUGGESTS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ACCELERATING NEWD THROUGH THE MORNING INTO REGION OF STRONG PRESSURE FALLS NOW EVIDENT NEAR FAY. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER/S TRACK WITH 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2. PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET TRANSLATING NEWD THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIKELY ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR FURTHER NEAR THE WARM FRONT. MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION HAS BECOME WELL WRAPPED AROUND ALBERTO AND LIES ATOP VERY MOIST/MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS...WHICH MAY BOOST INSTABILITY WITHIN WARM SECTOR. THUS...WITH HEATING THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON... CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SMALL SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES AS BANDS OF STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND LIFT N-NEWD ACROSS ERN NC. ...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ONGOING MCS WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG/SEVERE CORES WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO DIMINISH ALONG NOSE OF STRONG LLJ AND INVOF WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MID MORNING AS IT SPREADS/DEVELOPS ACROSS ERN ND/NERN SD AND INTO WRN MN/IA. OVERNIGHT MODELS CONSISTENT IN DEEPENING SURFACE LOW /NOW OVER FAR N-CENTRAL WY/ OVER FAR SERN MT THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. THOUGH SHEAR WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...AND BECOME ENHANCED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW...REGION WILL REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM FAR NRN IA WNWWD TO FAR SRN MT. EXPECT STRONG HEATING SOUTH OF THIS FRONT AND DEEP ASCENT WILL ALLOW STORMS TO FORM OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN MT/NRN WY AND NEAR THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS AS THEY SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH THREATS OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES ACROSS MUCH OF ERN MT INTO NWRN SD/SWRN ND. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE LARGE CLUSTERS DURING THE EVENING AND MAINTAIN THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL INTO ND LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS COULD BECOME PREVALENT WITH THIS MCS SHOULD DEEP ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF EWD MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT MAINTAIN NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORMS. FARTHER SOUTH...HIGH-BASED STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP WITHIN DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING FROM PARTS OF WRN SD INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS IT SPREADS EWD AND SLOWLY DIMINISHES OVER WRN NEB/WRN KS LATER THIS EVENING. ...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY... INTENSE CLUSTER OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL VORT MAX MOVING SSWWD OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY. 12Z SOUNDING FROM BRO INDICATES AIR MASS WILL BECOME VERY WEAKLY CAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 80S. GIVEN SFC-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT...A FEW GUSTS/HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STORMS SPREADING GENERALLY SWWD ACROSS THE SRN TIP OF TX THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 06/14/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 16:37:53 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 12:37:53 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 141635 SWODY1 SPC AC 141633 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS REGION.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NC.... ...ERN DAKOTAS/IA TODAY... STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING FROM S CENTRAL ND TO SW MN AND ERN IA. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE BASED NEAR 700 MB...AND IS BEING SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL WAA AND A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE /BETWEEN THE EXIT REGION OF THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS JET AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK MOVING SEWD OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY/. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT... A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER SE ID/NRN UT WILL MOVE NEWD TO ERN MT/WRN ND BY LATE TONIGHT. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER EXTREME SE MT AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIFT NWD FROM SD INTO SW ND AND ERN MT. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY THE EJECTING MID LEVEL WAVE. RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN A LARGELY N-S BAND FROM NRN WY/S CENTRAL MT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...EITHER AS A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING ERN ID STORMS...OR AS NEW DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND NOW OVER WRN WY/S CENTRAL MT. THE CONVECTION SHOULD THEN SPREAD NEWD ACROSS ERN MT LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO WRN ND TONIGHT. L0W-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE NRN PLAINS HAS BEEN LIMITED BY SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS...AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 56-60 F ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INVOF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IN THE WARM SECTOR TO THE S. ADDITIONALLY...A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS OVERSPREADING THE NRN PLAINS AND PROVIDING A SUBSTANTIAL CAP. THE MARGINAL MOISTURE AND WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SUGGEST THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 95-100 F WILL BE NECESSARY TO MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND THAT ANY WARM SECTOR CONVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED. MEANWHILE...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WITHIN THE LARGER CONVECTIVE BAND...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY FAVORING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS MORE QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINEAR CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...AND THE MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. FARTHER S...ISOLATED HIGH-BASED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS WRN NEB INTO NE CO/NW KS. ANY STORMS THAT FORM COULD DEVELOP SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AND BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...ERN NC THIS AFTERNOON... THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ALBERTO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AND OFFSHORE NEAR ECG BY THIS EVENING. IN THE INTERIM PERIOD...AN INFLUX OF LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS...SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS...AND STRONG L0W-LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ACROSS ERN NC. ..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 06/14/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 20:04:16 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 16:04:16 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 142000 SWODY1 SPC AC 141959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME ERN NC... ...ERN DAKOTAS... 18Z SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A STRONG INVERSION LOCATED BETWEEN 700- 850 MB ON THE BIS AND ABR 18Z SOUNDINGS...TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING W-E ACROSS SRN SD. LIFT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TODAY HAS BEEN PROVIDED BY WARM ADVECTION...CENTERED AROUND 700 MB...AND LIFT FROM THE EXIT REGION OF A NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES JET MAX AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET MAX MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 18Z ABR SOUNDING INDICATED LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS STRONGER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED SOUTH AND WEST OF ABERDEEN. ALTHOUGH THE LIFT FROM THE COUPLED JETS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE OH VALLEY JET MAX MOVES FURTHER SEWD...THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 55 KT OVERNIGHT. THE NET RESULT IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS SPREADING NWD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM ERN SD INTO ERN ND...WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. ...NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN MT/WRN WY WILL SHIFT EWD INTO ERN MT/WRN ND BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN NERN WY...WITH A N-S ORIENTED COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THE LOW AND FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY MORNING. STRONG FORCING WAS EVIDENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS PORTIONS OF WY/MT WITH A BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY ONGOING...SEE WW/S 480 AND 481. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD/EWD TONIGHT WITH THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTING SEVERE STORMS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. THE STRONG FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MAY AID THE STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN SD/ND TONIGHT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE GREATER THREAT AT THAT TIME. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... FORCING FROM NRN ROCKIES TROUGH WILL BE WEAKER ACROSS THIS AREA THAN THE NRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING OF A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES TO REACH THE LFC...AROUND 600 MB. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND THE DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATES DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. ...ERN NC... THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ALBERTO...LOCATED NEAR ECG... SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BETWEEN 22-00Z. UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC...THE SHEAR AND UPPER 70 TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS. ..IMY.. 06/14/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 15 01:01:33 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 21:01:33 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 150058 SWODY1 SPC AC 150057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS AREA... EARLY THIS EVENING...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS CONTINUE FROM ERN MT THROUGH WRN SD. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NNEWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE FROM WRN ND THROUGH MUCH OF SD REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG...BUT WITH A STRONGER CAP WITH EWD EXTENT INTO THE DAKOTAS. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NRN PLAINS WITHIN THE AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEWD EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG STORM RELATIVE INFLOW. THESE PROCESSES WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO PERSIST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE DAKOTAS NEXT FEW HOURS. FARTHER EAST OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED. DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS IS CONDITIONAL IN PART ON ABILITY OF ONGOING STORMS TO DEVELOP A COLD POOL...IN WHICH CASE THEY MAY BE ABLE TO FORWARD PROPAGATE INTO PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN DAKOTAS. STILL...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG CAP...OVERALL INTENSITIES MAY GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND STORMS MAY BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME. DOMINANT STORM MODE APPEARS TO BE TRANSITIONING TO CLUSTERS AND LINES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OR SO...ESPECIALLY WITH MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY OVER SWRN ND AND NWRN SD. ..DIAL.. 06/15/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 15 06:01:38 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 15 Jun 2006 02:01:38 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 150558 SWODY1 SPC AC 150556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CDT THU JUN 15 2006 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY AREA AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH INCLUDING ONE THAT WILL CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A SECONDARY IMPULSE WILL EJECT INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...NERN CO...NWRN KS...WRN AND CNTRL NEB AND ERN SD... A RESERVOIR OF WARM MID LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML WITH 17+ C TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS WILL SERVE TO CAP THE ATMOSPHERE TO SURFACE BASED STORMS OVER THIS AREA MUCH OF THE DAY. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL CHARACTERIZE THE HIGH PLAINS WARM SECTOR. N OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF ND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S MAY PERSIST. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE AROUND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD THROUGH CO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED STORMS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGION OF NERN CO AND SERN WY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40 TO 50 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AS IT SPREADS NEWD. CAP WILL BE STRONGER WITH EWD EXTENT INTO THE PLAINS AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN STRONG STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT ACTIVITY MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. ... ERN ND THROUGH NWRN MN... LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS COULD SLOW HEATING IN THIS AREA...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY IN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. OVERALL THREAT IN THIS AREA COULD BE LIMITED BY WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER COULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL/GUYER.. 06/15/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 15 12:37:51 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 15 Jun 2006 08:37:51 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 151233 SWODY1 SPC AC 151231 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 AM CDT THU JUN 15 2006 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NRN PLAINS... ...CENTRAL/ERN ND INTO NERN SD EWD ACROSS WRN MN... STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING EWD ACROSS WRN ND WILL BECOME FOCUS FOR RENEWED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CAPPING WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONG FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE. HOWEVER....FORCED ASCENT AND STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING WITHIN LOWER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY 21Z AS AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 35-40 KT SUGGESTING MORE DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR...THOUGH OVERALL EVOLUTION INTO LINES/CLUSTERS ALONG EWD MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. HOWEVER...SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN INTO NERN SD/SERN ND LATER THIS EVENING AND LCLS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LOW FOR A FEW TORNADOES. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO SD... A RESERVOIR OF WARM MID LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH 17+ C TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS WILL SERVE TO CAP THE ATMOSPHERE TO SURFACE BASED STORMS OVER THIS AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. DUE TO DEEP MIXING...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL CHARACTERIZE THE HIGH PLAINS WARM SECTOR. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD THROUGH CO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED STORMS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGION OF NERN CO AND SERN WY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40 TO 50 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AS IT SPREADS QUICKLY NEWD...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF LINES/BOW ECHOES. EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS...AS STORMS OVERSPREAD DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE INVOF STALLED FRONT EXTENDING NNEWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEB WELL INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING. ONCE CAPPING BEGINS INHIBITING STRONG SURFACE DOWNDRAFTS OVERNIGHT...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO LARGE HAIL AS MCS MOVES TOWARDS ERN SD/SWRN MN. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 06/15/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 15 16:36:46 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 15 Jun 2006 12:36:46 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 151633 SWODY1 SPC AC 151631 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CDT THU JUN 15 2006 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS.... ...CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT... A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY EWD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE NRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW OVER NW MT/SRN ALBERTA...WHILE A SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD FROM THE SRN GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM ERN CO TO NW KS/CENTRAL NEB AND THE WRN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD/SEWD TODAY. A SURFACE CYCLONE ALONG THE FRONT IN N CENTRAL NEB THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL ACROSS SE CO/NE NM IN RESPONSE TO THE WAVE APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE ANALYSES AND 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL RATHER POOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING NWWD ACROSS TX...BUT IT APPEARS THAT VERTICAL MIXING WILL PARTIALLY COUNTERACT ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...AND THE 60+ DEWPOINTS APPEAR UNLIKELY TO REACH THE LEE TROUGH AND BAROCLINIC ZONE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. INSTEAD...SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 95-100 F AND ASCENT ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL WEAKEN THE CAP AND HELP INITIATE HIGH-BASED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A DEEP/DRY SUB CLOUD MIXED LAYER WILL PROMOTE DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH OF THE STORMS/COLD POOLS INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S BY EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS NW KS/NEB. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...NAMELY EARLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORMS DURING THE EVENING. ...CENTRAL/ERN DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... A MID LEVEL TROUGH...ENHANCED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...IS MOVING NEWD FROM NE SD/SE ND TO WRN MN. CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S E OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO WEAKEN IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL MID LEVEL WAVE...LEAVING THE STRONGER FLOW/HEIGHT GRADIENTS W OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE AN ENVIRONMENT WITH POTENTIALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR THAT SHOULD BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. CONVECTION MAY FORM FIRST ALONG THE BOUNDARY FIRST IN SD...AND THEN SPREAD NNEWD INTO ND BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. ..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 06/15/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 15 20:10:46 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 15 Jun 2006 16:10:46 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 152008 SWODY1 SPC AC 152006 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS... ...CNTRL PLAINS... LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DEEP OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVER SRN ALBERTA WITH OCCLUDED FRONT ARCING SEWD THEN SWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TO WEAK FRONTAL WAVE OVER NRN NEB. STALLED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD AND BISECTS NEB...CONTINUING SWWD TO THERMAL/LEE LOW OVER SERN CO. GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BECOME FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT AND NEAR THE WEAK FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS NEB...WHILE STRONGLY HEATED AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WAS SITUATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERMAL LOW...AND LEE TROUGH...FROM SERN CO/WRN KS SWWD ACROSS NM/TX. DESPITE INCREASING INSTABILITY AND BROADLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW AIDING LARGE SCALE UPWARD MOTION ACROSS THE REGION...CAPPING REMAINS QUITE PRONOUNCED NEAR THE FRONT IN NEB GIVEN 700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 12-16C RANGE. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT INTENSE SURFACE HEATING AND DEEP MIXING ACROSS ERN CO AND WRN KS HAS LOCALLY OVERCOME INHIBITION IN THESE AREAS TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION ROOTED ABOVE 600MB. PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EMERGENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL HIGH-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP AND VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...AND DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND WITH THIS ACTIVITY. FARTHER NORTH....ACROSS NEB...SOUNDINGS FROM LBF INDICATED THAT INHIBITION WAS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND EXPECT LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DIABATIC FORCING TO CONTINUE TO ERODE THE CAP ACROSS THE REGION AND SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING. LATEST RUC SUGGESTS THAT HIGH-BASED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS NWRN KS MAY SPREAD NEWD INTO SWRN NEB BEFORE 00Z. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED NEAR THE FRONT AND LOW WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROMOTING UPDRAFT ROTATION/STORM ORGANIZATION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WITH AN MCS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING NWD/NEWD THROUGH LATE EVENING. ...DAKOTAS... OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW EWD PROGRESS INTO STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF ND/SD THROUGH TONIGHT. THROUGH LATE EVENING...LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ARE WEAKER ACROSS THIS AREA THAN FARTHER SOUTH BUT LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ON THE EDGE OF THE STRONGER INHIBITION...FROM NCNTRL SD INTO CNTRL/ERN ND THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BUT MORE MARGINAL ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR BENEATH WEAKER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/WIND/TORNADO POTENTIAL IF DISCRETE STORMS CAN FORM NEAR/ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 06/15/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 16 01:05:06 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 15 Jun 2006 21:05:06 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 160101 SWODY1 SPC AC 160059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL THROUGH NRN PLAINS... ...CNTRL THROUGH NRN PLAINS... THIS EVENING A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL ND SWD THROUGH N CNTRL NEB THEN SWWD INTO NERN CO. AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG EXISTS IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT FROM NEB NEWD THROUGH ND. A LINE OF SCATTERED HIGH BASED STORMS PERSISTS FROM WRN KS NEWD INTO S CNTRL NEB. THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPED WHERE STRONG MIXING AND HEATING WAS SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN THE CAP. THE ATMOSPHERE IS STRONGLY CAPPED EAST OF THESE STORMS AND SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP MUCH FARTHER E...BUT MAY CONTINUE TO TRAIN FROM SW TO NE. PRIMARY FOCUS MAY SHIFT FARTHER N ACROSS CNTRL NEB IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHERE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS INCREASING DOWNSTREAM FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD OUT OF CO. THIS ALONG WITH INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEXT FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AS IT SPREADS NEWD INTO PARTS OF SD. SWLY EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40 TO 45 KT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE WITH BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WIND AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. CONVECTION ALSO APPEARS TO BE INCREASING FARTHER N FROM N CNTRL SD INTO CNTRL ND WITHIN ZONE OF WEAKER ASCENT IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED...AND IT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE WHERE THESE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO FULLY TAP INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER GIVEN INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT THAN FARTHER S. NEVERTHELESS...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE MUCAPE AND STEEP LAPSE APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS MANAGE TO EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS LATER THIS EVENING. ..DIAL.. 06/16/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 16 05:52:08 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 01:52:08 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 160549 SWODY1 SPC AC 160547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE PLAINS TODAY. SRN BRANCH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER CO WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ALONG NWRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM ND SWWD THROUGH NERN CO WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD. THE SRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER NERN CO IS CURRENTLY BEING REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE RAPID SWD MOVEMENT THROUGH ERN CO AND EXTREME WRN KS INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS AREA... LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S WILL CHARACTERIZE THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. TIMING OF SRN STREAM IMPULSE SUGGESTS STORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLY OR BE ONGOING...ESPECIALLY IN POST FRONTAL REGION OF NERN CO INTO NWRN KS. BEST DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FARTHER S. SWLY FLOW IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG IS EXPECTED FROM WRN TX NEWD THROUGH WRN KS INTO NEB AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF WRN KS SWD THROUGH WRN TX WHERE DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ENHANCED BY SRN STREAM IMPULSE. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. THE NATURE OF THE LINEAR FORCING AND ORIENTATION OF THE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT SUGGEST SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. STORMS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF MAINTAINING MORE PERSISTENT DISCRETE STRUCTURES FARTHER SWD INTO W TX OR IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS. SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ...UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA... ONGOING CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY SUPPORTED BY A STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET. A RESERVOIR OF LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST IN THIS REGION. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE S OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY MID DAY. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. A 50+ KT MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WITH WEAK HIGH LEVEL FLOW. THIS SUGGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY BE OUTFLOW DOMINANT WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL/GUYER.. 06/16/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 16 12:32:06 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 08:32:06 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 161228 SWODY1 SPC AC 161227 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS STATES... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES....WITH A LARGE RIDGE DOMINATING THE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND SOUTHEAST REGION. TWO FEATURES ARE EVIDENT IN FLOW FIELD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS. THESE SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS STATES TODAY. ...NEB/KS INTO TX... SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS WEAKENING AND SHOULD DEPART REGION BY LATE MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SEVERAL HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NEB. REMNANT WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR RENEWED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW A DEEP-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL. THIS WILL AID IN VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS ONCE THE CAP IS BREACHED THROUGH DAYTIME HEATING. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAINS THREAT. ...SD/ND/MN... ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY IS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DEPICTED OVER SD/NEB WILL ROTATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...HELPING TO ELIMINATE CAPPING INVERSION AND AIDING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARY AXIS OF SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIE ROUGHLY ALONG A GLD-HSI-FRM LINE TODAY. STRONG HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH APPROACHING TROUGH...SHOULD HELP TO ELIMINATE CAP LEADING TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS. VERTICAL SHEAR IN THIS REGION SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR FARTHER WEST ALONG THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN MN/EASTERN SD. ..HART/GUYER.. 06/16/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 16 16:18:54 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 12:18:54 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 161615 SWODY1 SPC AC 161614 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS STATES TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR DEPICTS WELL THE VORT CENTER NRN NM ROTATING THRU THE BOTTOM OF ROCKIES TROUGH. LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT WITH VORT NOW ACROSS ERN NM NWD INTO SERN CO AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD ENHANCING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG BOTH THE FRONTAL ZONE KS/CO BORDER AND THE DRY LINE THAT WILL EXTEND SWD THRU THE TX PANHANDLE BY MID AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NWD E OF DRY LINE AND FRONT WHICH COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTS THE AIR MASS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE BY MID-AFTERNOON. WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO 2500 J/KG AND THE CAP WEAKENING...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM WRN KS POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS PERMIAN BASIN OF SWRN TX. WHILE THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARGUE FOR SUPERCELLS...THE EXPECTED HIGH BASES AND THE STRONG SLY COMPONENT WILL LIMIT VEERING POTENTIAL...SUGGEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIMITED AND LIKELY IN EARLY STAGES OF ANY SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. STORMS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND PROPAGATE EWD REACHING MAX INTENSITY LATE EVENING CENTRAL KS/WRN OK...PRIOR TO DIURNAL WEAKENING LATER TONIGHT. WITH DCAPES AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG...DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANT THREAT THRU LATE EVENING. ...UPPER MID WEST... SYNOPTIC FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED FROM NWRN MN/ND BORDER SSWWD TO SWRN NEB. CLOUDINESS FROM THE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS SLOWED SURFACE HEATING...HOWEVER MUCH OF CLOUDINESS WILL DISSIPATE AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE THRU THE 80S MUCH OF AREA FROM NEB TO SRN MN/WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MID/UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AS FAR E OF FRONT AS WI/IA...AIR MASS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO BECOME MDTLY TO VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES 2000 J/KG OR GREATER FROM NEB NEWD TO SRN MN/WRN WI. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT ONLY 6-7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES...SUGGEST STORM MODE THIS AREA MOSTLY MULTICELL/OUTFLOW DOMINATED...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS/S. HOWEVER GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY VICINITY SURFACE BOUNDARIES. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THREAT DIMINISHING BY LATE EVENING WHEN COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. ..HALES/GRAMS.. 06/16/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 16 20:03:50 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 16:03:50 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 161959 SWODY1 SPC AC 161958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF WRN KS...OK PANHANDLE AND NRN TX PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS STATES TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUED TO DEPICT VORTICITY CENTER WITHIN BASE OF ROCKIES TROUGH WAS NOW LOCATED OVER SERN CO/NERN NM. THIS IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD AS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ASCENT SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH ATOP DESTABILIZING AIR MASS ALONG/E OF LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE WILL WEAKEN INHIBITION FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING FROM W TX NNEWD INTO CENTRAL/ERN NEB. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000+ J/KG/ AND SLY WINDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WITH SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL TEND TO FAVOR LINES/BOWING SEGMENTS. HOWEVER...IN ADDITION TO HAIL...SOME VERY LARGE...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BULK SHEAR VALUES UP TO 45-65 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THUS...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY PRIMARILY FROM SWRN NEB SWD TO THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST. STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD OVER THIS REGION SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S WITH CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT INTO THE LATE EVENING FROM CENTRAL NEB TO WRN OK. ...NEB NEWD TO UPPER MIDWEST... A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER WRN NEB IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN MN BY LATE THIS EVENING. ASCENT WITH THIS IMPULSE IS AIDING A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM SERN SD /W OF FSD/ SWD INTO ERN NEB. ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM ERN NEB INTO WI AS SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTES TO MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500-2000 J/KG. ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD MAINTAINING ONGOING SERN SD/ERN NEB COMPLEX AS IT TRACKS NEWD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING. ..PETERS.. 06/16/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 01:03:03 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 21:03:03 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 170059 SWODY1 SPC AC 170058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... LINEAR MCS EXTENDS FROM SRN NEB SWD THROUGH W CNTRL KS AND WRN OK. THE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS LIKELY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN IN EXCESS OF 45 KT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING EWD THROUGH THE CNTR/SRN HIGH PLAINS. STORMS HAVE ORGANIZED A COLD POOL...AND INCREASING STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP TO SUSTAIN A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THROUGH WRN OK...CNTRL KS INTO PARTS OF SERN NEB. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ORIGINATING FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IS MOVING NWWD THROUGH CNTRL OK AND MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH STORMS OVER WRN OK RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN INTENSITY. FARTHER N ACROSS KS STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST...BUT WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. OTHER MORE DISCRETE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FARTHER S ALONG PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF WRN TX. THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT SPREADS EWD. WITH THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THIS REGION...AN OVERALL DECREASE IN THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES. ...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA... STORMS CONTINUE TRAINING NEWD ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NWRN IA THROUGH SRN MN AND NWRN WI. LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS WITH BOWING STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE. THE WARM SECTOR S OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THIS ACTIVITY PERSISTING NEXT FEW HOURS. MODEST EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY MULTICELL IN CHARACTER. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. REFERENCE SWOMCD 1209 FOR MORE INFORMATION. ..DIAL.. 06/17/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 06:09:24 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 02:09:24 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 170605 SWODY1 SPC AC 170604 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF OK AND TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER ERN CO/NERN NM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER S CNTRL CANADA WILL AMPLIFY SEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING HEIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND ERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SWD THROUGH WRN TX AND NWRN TX AS WELL AS INTO CNTRL OK. NRN EXTENTION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK BOUNDARY MAY PERSIST FROM SRN MN NEWD THROUGH NWRN WI. ...OK AND TX... SEVERE THREAT IN THIS REGION WILL BE SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED BY ONGOING STORMS. ONGOING STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY CONTINUE EWD THROUGH OK BUT WILL LEAVE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PARTS OF OK INTO NRN AND WRN TX. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG IN WAKE OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. A SECONDARY IMPULSE MAY ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP IN VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM PARTS OF SWRN THROUGH N CNTRL TX INTO SRN AND CNTRL OK. A BAND OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AROUND 30 TO 35 KT WHICH WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH THE INSTABILITY AXIS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER N IN KS ALONG SURFACE FRONT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO VORT MAX. MUCH OF THIS AREA HAS BEEN WORKED OVER BY OVERNIGHT STORMS. HOWEVER...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ONCE HEATING COMMENCES ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL STORMS...BUT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA... POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE IN WARM SECTOR E AND S OF REMNANT OUTFLOW/SURFACE BOUNDARIES DURING THE DAY WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY POSSIBLE. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE NRN PLAINS SUPPORTING SWLY VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35 KT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. PRIMARY STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE MULTICELLULAR WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL/TAYLOR.. 06/17/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 12:33:46 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 08:33:46 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 171230 SWODY1 SPC AC 171229 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0729 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...WHILE RIDGE HOLDS FIRM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. PRIMARY REGION OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY WILL BE ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM TX INTO WI/MI WHERE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE COINCIDENT. ...KS/OK/TX... DECAYING MCS REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING...WITH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER OK AND SOUTHEAST KS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD BY LATE MORNING ALLOWING RELATIVELY STRONG DAYTIME HEATING ALONG SURFACE DRYLINE FROM NORTHWEST TX INTO CENTRAL KS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG/. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS CENTRAL NM. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO WEST TX/OK THIS AFTERNOON AROUND PEAK HEATING...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES OF 30-45 KNOTS WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS...WHILE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHWEST TX. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KS/EASTERN OK/CENTRAL TX DURING THE EVENING. ...MN/WI/MI... MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG WEAK SURFACE FRONT/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MN. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS WI AND INTO LOWER MI THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. ...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MID LEVEL VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO. THIS FEATURE IS PROGD TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND STRONG HEATING WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF FEATURE. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN VT/NH AND WESTERN ME THIS EVENING. IF THEY CAN MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR IN STRONGEST CELLS. ..HART/TAYLOR.. 06/17/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 16:26:21 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 12:26:21 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 171623 SWODY1 SPC AC 171621 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... UPPER LOW LOCATED SWRN NEB/KS BORDER WITH TROUGH AND COLDER AIR ALOFT EXTENDING SSWWD INTO SWRN TX. LOW OPENING UP AS TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FURTHER N S/WV TROUGH IN FASTER WESTERLIES ALONG CANADIAN BORDER MOVES EWD FROM CURRENT LOCATION MT/ND AREA ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF PLAINS HAS SLOWED HEATING OF THE STILL VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY QUITE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ONGOING MCS ERN TX MOVING INTO VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE LOWER MS VALLEY. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING COUPLED WITH COOLING ALOFT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE AIRMASS FROM SRN KS SWD INTO NCENTRAL/NWRN TX. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL WEAKEN WITH APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE AIR MASS BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE ON THE WRN EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE WRN OK INTO NWRN TX. WITH MLCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG...STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM AND 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON. GREATEST THREAT WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL...BUT WITH DCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ALSO EXPECTED. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...HOWEVER MARGINAL SHEAR SUGGESTS ANY OCCURRENCE WILL BE SHORT LIVED. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE WELL AFTER DARK...PARTICULARLY CENTRAL TX WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST. ...ERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY... ONGOING FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS ERN TX EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF MCS WITH CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR AT MID/UPPER LEVELS. WITH HEATING MLCAPES ARE ALREADY ABOVE 2500 J/KG...THUS WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD RAMP UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS MCS MOVES INTO LA. ... MN/WI/MI... A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS SERN MN/WI INTO UPPER MI. ONGOING HEATING WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN CIN AND ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON EAST OF THE THICK CLOUD COVER OVER WRN AND NRN MN. WITH MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG...30-40 KT OF PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...MULTICELLULAR SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH DOWNBURST WIND AND LARGE HAIL. STORMS SHOULD PROPAGATE E/NEWD ACROSS WI/UPR MI PRIOR TO WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING. ..HALES/GRAMS.. 06/17/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 20:05:38 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 16:05:38 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 172001 SWODY1 SPC AC 172000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ SRN PLAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCATED ALONG THE SRN TO ERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH. ALTHOUGH COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-10 TO -12 C AT 500 MB/ EXTEND N-S ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5-8 C/KM WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN EXTENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OK/TX. THESE LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING ESPECIALLY FROM SWRN OK INTO CENTRAL/WRN TX WITHIN MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 2000-3000 J/KG INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FARTHER N...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAKER /MLCAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG/ FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO CENTRAL KS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL NEB/KS INTO CENTRAL/WRN OK TO NW-W TX. HOWEVER...MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND GREATEST SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM TX/OK INTO SRN KS WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE BEST FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF OK WHERE LCLS WILL BE LOWER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONGER. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE WELL AFTER DARK... PARTICULARLY CENTRAL/SRN TX WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST...WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY DEVELOPING SSEWD. ...MN/WI/MI... STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG/S OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL MN NEWD ACROSS THE NRN U.P. OF MI HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG/ THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER ASCENT ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG MID LEVEL JET WHICH EXTENDED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ONTARIO AND WAA ALONG NOSE OF SLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO AID IN ADDITIONAL STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS FAR NRN WI INTO U.P. OF MI WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT FARTHER W INTO ERN MN. ...E TX/LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY... EXTENSIVE AREA OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM THE UPPER TX COAST NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP MOIST SSWLY FLOW REGIME. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF TWO MID LEVEL FEATURES...ONE AN MCV NOW LOCATED OVER NERN TX AND THE SECOND A WEAKENING IMPULSE LOCATED OVER SERN MO WILL SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..PETERS.. 06/17/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 18 01:04:00 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 21:04:00 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 180100 SWODY1 SPC AC 180058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE MID MO VALLEY INTO TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES... ...TX... MCS IS RAPIDLY EVOLVING THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NWRN...W-CNTRL AND N-CNTRL TX AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD TOWARD BASE OF MEAN TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. INFLOW AIR MASS OVER CNTRL TX IS HOT AND MOIST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WHEN COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. EXPECT FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH OF MCS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALONG ORGANIZING COLD POOL AS COMPLEX CONTINUES SEWD TOWARD CNTRL TX. CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OWING TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. ...NEB/KS/OK... LINE OF TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM SERN NEB INTO S-CNTRL KS AHEAD OF PRIMARY VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTING EWD THROUGH N-CNTRL KS/S-CNTRL NEB. PRIOR CONVECTION HAS EFFECTIVELY STABILIZED AIR MASS ACROSS MO INTO FAR ERN KS...THUS THERE APPEARS TO BE ONLY A NARROW SPATIAL CORRIDOR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE AIR MASS REMAINS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG --REFERENCE 00Z OAX/TOP SOUNDINGS--. MERIDIONAL HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG ACROSS THIS AREA WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THIS SHEAR IN CONJUNCTION WITH RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER FORCING SHOULD MAINTAIN A THREAT OF HIGH WINDS/HAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS ERN KS TOWARD THE MID MO VALLEY. FARTHER S OVER OK...OUTFLOW FROM PRIOR CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED MUCH OF REGION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD THROUGH THE NWRN PART OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH SOME THREAT OF ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES SEWD AND INTERACTS WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ...WRN GREAT LAKES... A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXISTS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD INTO WRN WI WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...IT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS UPPER JET STREAK DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. INTENSIFYING SWLY LLJ SHOULD MAINTAIN CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OVERNIGHT WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS FROM WI NEWD INTO THE UP MI. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ...LOWER AND MID MS INTO TN VALLEYS... A CONVECTIVE LINE HAS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING FROM WRN TN SWD INTO CNTRL MS AHEAD OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM LIFTING NEWD THROUGH AR. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...00Z JAN SOUNDING INDICATED THAT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WERE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PARTICULARLY FROM CNTRL/NRN MS ACROSS WRN TN INTO WRN KY. ..MEAD.. 06/18/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 18 05:51:38 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 18 Jun 2006 01:51:38 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 180548 SWODY1 SPC AC 180546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 AM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NEB AND IA... ...SYNOPSIS... ACTIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD AS GREAT PLAINS TROUGH WEAKENS AND IS GRADUALLY ABSORBED INTO INTENSIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THIS REGIME...VORTICITY MAXIMUM CURRENTLY OVER AR WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NNEWD INTO THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY/S-CNTRL GREAT LAKES BY AFTERNOON...WHILE STRONGER IMPULSE NOW OVER ERN NEB/KS SHIFTS ESEWD TOWARD THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE IN THE W...EVOLVING TROUGH OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NW COAST WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE PACIFIC NW LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO MID MO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD TODAY...REACHING THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES SWD INTO MID MS VALLEY LATER TODAY. ELSEWHERE...A SECONDARY...WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS /IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING OUT OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/ INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF NEB AND IA BY EARLY EVENING. ...CNTRL GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. SSWLY LLJ WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORTING NWD ADVECTION OF THIS RICHER MOISTURE INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STEEP...DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH THIS MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...TO 500-1000 J/KG OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES. WHILE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TODAY WITHIN THIS MOIST...DEEP SWLY FLOW...LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONCENTRATED SEVERE WEATHER OVER TWO AREAS: IND/WRN OH INTO LOWER MI AND FROM THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS RIVERS SWD INTO NRN PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOW OVER AR IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY LIFT NNEWD...REACHING IND/WRN OH/LOWER MI BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ASSOCIATED BELT OF 45-55 KTS MID-LEVEL WINDS OVERSPREADING REGION. WHILE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE QUITE MOIST WITH MODEST INSTABILITY...FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL LIKELY FOCUS A CONCENTRATED CLUSTER OF STORMS AHEAD OF EWD-MOVING FRONTAL ZONE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. FARTHER S...A SECONDARY CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH MO/NRN AR. WHILE WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER THAN POINTS TO THE N...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER...SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...NEB/IA... ONLY MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /I.E. 50-55 F DEWPOINTS/ IS FORECAST TODAY ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AHEAD OF WEAK FRONT SHIFTING SWD OUT OF SD/SRN MN. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATED STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. SURFACE-BASED TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG NWRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS OVER SRN SD OR NRN NEB AS 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NW. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH ERN NEB INTO WRN AND CNTRL IA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FORECAST WIND PROFILES INDICATE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL 40-50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED...WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD...THOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO CNTRL/SRN IA TONIGHT PRIOR TO WEAKENING AS THE AIR MASS SLOWLY COOLS AND STABILIZES. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 06/18/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 01:15:54 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 18 Jun 2006 21:15:54 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 181239 SWODY1 SPC AC 181238 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0738 AM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NEB/IA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...MAIN SURFACE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM WI INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...AS WELL AS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ACROSS PARTS OF NEB/IA. ...TX COAST THIS MORNING... REMNANT NOCTURNAL MCS IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND AFFECTING THE TX GULF COAST. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT AHEAD OF STORMS...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED INTENSE CELLS AHEAD OF LEADING EDGE OF MCS. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES IN THIS REGION ARE RATHER WEAK...SUGGESTING MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING. ...MI/OH/IND... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS AR/WESTERN TN. THE FEATURE WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES STATES THIS AFTERNOON. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SUGGEST ONLY MINIMAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG/ DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL WINDS /AS STRONG AS 50 KNOTS AT 500MB/ AND APPROACHING TROUGH MAY ENHANCE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. ...KY/TN/AR/TX... ANOTHER AREA OF CONCENTRATED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM WESTERN KY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST TX. MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL ROTATE ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...FURTHER AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND ORGANIZATION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STEEP. HOWEVER...AMPLE MOISTURE AND STRONGER HEATING THAN FARTHER NORTH WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE OVER 1500 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP 21-00Z FROM NORTHERN AR INTO SOUTHEAST MO. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. ...NEB/IA... ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN WY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY BY 00Z. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS WEAK IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...STRONG UPPER FORCING AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BEFORE 00Z. SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..HART/TAYLOR.. 06/18/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 01:15:55 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 18 Jun 2006 21:15:55 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 182012 SWODY1 SPC AC 182010 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS LOWER OH TO LOWER TN VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NEB INTO SWRN IA/FAR NWRN MO... ...MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER IL/SERN MO WITH THIS FEATURE PROGGED MOVE EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDED SWD FROM SERN WI THROUGH CENTRAL IL TO SERN MO AND CENTRAL/SWRN AR. AIR MASS HAD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG/ IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF MID LEVEL IMPULSE FROM CENTRAL IL INTO SERN MO. 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MULTICELLULAR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM IL INTO WRN KY INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION AND ATTENDANT ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EWD IN ADVANCE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES. MEANWHILE...ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EXTENDING FROM SWRN IND INTO NWRN TN WILL PROGRESS ENEWD INTO NRN TN/CENTRAL KY TO SWRN OH AIDED BY ESTABLISHED COLD POOL AND ASCENT AHEAD OF MID MS VALLEY IMPULSE. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...40 KT WLY WINDS AT 1-2 KM AGL PER FORT CAMPBELL WSR-88D VAD SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS... SRN EXTENT OF MS VALLEY TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING E OF THIS TROUGH OVER MS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 90 WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG/...GIVEN MODEST LAPSE RATES /6.5 C/KM/. GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER... MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM MS INTO SWRN TN MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION THIS EVENING. ...NEB/IA... EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH/COOL FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY WSWWD THROUGH CENTRAL NEB TO A MESOLOW NEAR LBF. SURFACE HEATING S OF THIS TROUGH WITHIN AXIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500 J/KG...WITH RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGESTING INHIBITION IS BECOMING WEAKER. 40-50 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING MID MO VALLEY IMPULSE AND AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING SEWD INTO UPPER MS VALLEY IS RESULTING IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORMS. 18Z RUC SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY AROUND 21Z IN VICINITY OF MESOLOW WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM MESOSCALE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1233. INITIAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ACROSS ERN NEB/SWRN IA INTO NRN MO PER INCREASING WAA ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ. HAIL SHOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...SERN WI/FAR NERN IL... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER SERN WI/FAR NERN IL WHICH IS LIKELY AIDING ONGOING LINE OF STORMS ALONG NRN EXTENT OF SURFACE TROUGH INTO SERN WI. MUCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG COMBINED WITH 20-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS. LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ROTATION WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. GIVEN SMALL AREAL COVERAGE AND SHORT DURATION OF THREAT WILL NOT INTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK. ..PETERS.. 06/18/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 01:15:58 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 18 Jun 2006 21:15:58 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 182209 SWODY1 SPC AC 182207 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0507 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006 VALID 182205Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NEB/SRN-ERN IA/NRN IL/SRN-ERN WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER OH INTO LOWER TN VALLEYS... AMENDED TO ADD A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS ERN IA/NWRN IL INTO PARTS OF SRN/ERN WI ...ERN IA/NWRN IL INTO WI... REGIONAL RADARS/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL U.P. OF MI SSWWD THROUGH CENTRAL-SWRN WI INTO ERN IA. AIR MASS ALONG/E OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO UPPER MS VALLEY AND IN ADVANCE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSE...NOW LOCATED OVER NRN IA...WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. STRENGTHENING WLY MID LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL RESULT IN INCREASING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FOR STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS INTO THE EVENING. WSR-88D VAD AT DVN INDICATED LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE FOR STORM ROTATION SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. GIVEN TIME OF DAY AND THE EVENTUAL ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY 02-03Z. ...PREVIOUS 20Z DISCUSSION... ...MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER IL/SERN MO WITH THIS FEATURE PROGGED MOVE EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDED SWD FROM SERN WI THROUGH CENTRAL IL TO SERN MO AND CENTRAL/SWRN AR. AIR MASS HAD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG/ IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF MID LEVEL IMPULSE FROM CENTRAL IL INTO SERN MO. 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MULTICELLULAR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM IL INTO WRN KY INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION AND ATTENDANT ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EWD IN ADVANCE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES. MEANWHILE...ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EXTENDING FROM SWRN IND INTO NWRN TN WILL PROGRESS ENEWD INTO NRN TN/CENTRAL KY TO SWRN OH AIDED BY ESTABLISHED COLD POOL AND ASCENT AHEAD OF MID MS VALLEY IMPULSE. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...40 KT WLY WINDS AT 1-2 KM AGL PER FORT CAMPBELL WSR-88D VAD SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS... SRN EXTENT OF MS VALLEY TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING E OF THIS TROUGH OVER MS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 90 WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG/...GIVEN MODEST LAPSE RATES /6.5 C/KM/. GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER... MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM MS INTO SWRN TN MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION THIS EVENING. ...NEB/IA... EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH/COOL FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY WSWWD THROUGH CENTRAL NEB TO A MESOLOW NEAR LBF. SURFACE HEATING S OF THIS TROUGH WITHIN AXIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500 J/KG...WITH RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGESTING INHIBITION IS BECOMING WEAKER. 40-50 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING MID MO VALLEY IMPULSE AND AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING SEWD INTO UPPER MS VALLEY IS RESULTING IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORMS. 18Z RUC SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY AROUND 21Z IN VICINITY OF MESOLOW WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM MESOSCALE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1233. INITIAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ACROSS ERN NEB/SWRN IA INTO NRN MO PER INCREASING WAA ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ. HAIL SHOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..PETERS.. 06/18/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 01:15:57 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 18 Jun 2006 21:15:57 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 181617 SWODY1 SPC AC 181615 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LOWER OH TO WRN TN VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN NEB INTO WRN IA... ...CENTRAL U.S... MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER MO WILL ACCELERATE EWD INTO OH VALLEY TODAY AS STRONGER SYSTEM UPSTREAM DROPS ESEWD ACROSS UPR MS VALLEY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE MODULATED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS/PCPN AND GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED AHEAD OF MO TROUGH. DEEP LAYER SHEAR RANGES DOWNWARD FROM 30-40KT ACROSS MI TO GENERALLY 25KT OR LESS WRN TN VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR NOTED ON W/V IMAGERY ROTATING EWD ACROSS MO INTO LOWER OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF TROUGH FOR MDT INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. PLUME OF 70F PLUS DEWPOINTS THAT EXTENDS NNEWD LOWER MS VALLEY INTO LOWER OH VALLEY. WITH SURFACE TEMPS RISING THRU THE MID 80S...MLCAPE COULD CLIMB TO 2000 J/KG VICINITY CONFLUENCE OF OH AND MS RIVERS. GIVEN THE WEAK LAPSE RATES...GENERALLY LESS THAN 6C/KM AND ONLY MODEST SHEAR...SURFACE BASED STORMS THAT DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON FROM LOWER OH TO WRN TN VALLEY EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY MULTICELL. WIND DAMAGE IN THE FORM OF WET DOWNBURSTS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT THREAT AS THERMODYNAMICS DO NOT SUPPORT LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE LFC'S SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1500M WITH SOME HELICITY IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE HODOGRAPH. ...NE/IA... RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE SPREADING EWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS AS FAR S AS NEB ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV TROUGH MOVING THRU UPPER MS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE HAS DECREASED WITH WLY FLOW ACROSS PLAINS...THE STRONG HEATING...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTS CONTINUING THE LOW END SLIGHT RISK CURRENTLY ERN NE INTO IA BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH DCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SUPPORTING WIND DAMAGE THREAT. WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK...FAVORABLE SHEAR IN CLOUD BEARING LAYER DOES SUPPORT SUPERCELL POTENTIAL ENHANCING LARGE HAIL THREAT. SURFACE BASED STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON ERN NEB WHERE INHIBITION WEAKENS AND MLCAPES CLIMB TO NEAR 1000 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE E/SEWD INTO IA BY EARLY TONIGHT. ..HALES/GRAMS.. 06/18/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 06:00:51 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2006 02:00:51 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 190559 SWODY1 SPC AC 190558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NRN APPALACHIANS AND NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID MO VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 40-50 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING WHILE UPSTREAM 50-60 KT JET STREAK OVER THE MIDWEST DIGS SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. MEANWHILE IN THE W...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH AN ACCOMPANYING BELT OF 40-50 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADING ACROSS SAME REGION. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...WEAK SURFACE FRONT FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO TN VALLEY WILL PUSH EWD TODAY...REACHING NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE DELMARVA BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM BOUNDARY WILL SAG SWD FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY TOWARD THE OH RIVER BY TONIGHT. OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER NERN WY BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS COLD FRONT PUSHES EWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. ...NORTHEASTERN STATES... BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP-LAYER FORCING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS /I.E. DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE 60S/ WILL SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION OF DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS NY/PA INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG. EXPECT REINTENSIFICATION OR RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG OR AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS THIS DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. DEEP...SWLY TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WITH 35-45 KTS OF SPEED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH SEVERE HAIL. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL SPREAD EWD INTO WRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING...AND SWD THROUGH ERN PA/NJ AND SERN NY...WITH STORMS GRADUALLY WEAKENING OR MOVING OFFSHORE THEREAFTER. ...OH VALLEY... ADDITIONAL BROKEN LINES OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF OH/IND/IL THIS AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM JET STREAK AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM DIG SEWD TOWARD THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SWLY/WLY. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT AFTERNOON MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS GIVEN 40-45 KTS OF DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS TSTMS APPROACH THE OH RIVER. ...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO MID MO VALLEY... AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY OVER WRN PORTIONS OF SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH DEWPOINTS OF 40-45 F. HOWEVER...STEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 500 J/KG. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATER TODAY OVER SWRN MT/NWRN WY AS LOW-LEVEL OROGRAPHIC FORCING N OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW COUPLES WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OVER NRN WY/CNTRL AND ERN MT WITH AN MCS EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS TONIGHT. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVOLVING MCS OVER CNTRL SD INTO WRN OR CNTRL IA WITHIN INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. NAM AND 4-KM WRF NMM GUIDANCE BOTH INDICATE A SECONDARY ZONE OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITHIN UPSLOPE REGION OF ERN WY INTO NERN CO THIS AFTERNOON. HERE...BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /I.E. LOWER TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS/ WILL SUPPORT STRONGER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WITHIN THE FIST FEW HOURS OF INITIATION. A SECOND MCS MAY EVOLVE FROM THIS ACTIVITY WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT SPREADING EWD INTO WRN AND CNTRL NEB OVERNIGHT. ..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 06/19/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 12:34:53 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2006 08:34:53 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 191234 SWODY1 SPC AC 191232 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES...INTO THE MIDWEST... ...NY/PA/NEW ENGLAND... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW. ONE VORT MAX IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL OH AND SHOULD TRACK EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NY BY AROUND 18Z. EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES FROM NY/PA AND NEW ENGLAND SHOW MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TODAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THIS REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. MINIMAL CAP AND UPWARD FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS /30-45 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW/ SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS. LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT HAIL THREAT. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL NY/PA AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND BEFORE SUNSET. ...IL/IND/OH... SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE ACROSS THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-10 TO -12C AT 500MB/...WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG/FAVORABLE FOR MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIKELY LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS. THOSE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...MT/NERN WY/WRN DAKOTAS... SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ORE/ID. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO MT/WY THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE PLAINS OF EASTERN MT/NORTHEAST WY WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WESTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE EAST OF A BIL-SHR LINE. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES. ACTIVITY MAY MAINTAIN SEVERE INTENSITY INTO SOUTHWEST ND AND WESTERN SD DURING THE EVENING/NIGHT AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. ...NERN CO/SERN WY/WRN NEB... EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IS IN PLACE TODAY OVER EASTERN CO AND SOUTHEAST WY. STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG AND ONLY WEAK CAP. PRESENT INDICATION ARE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE FOOTHILLS/LARAMIE RANGE AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS PORTRAY VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS. 40+ DEGREE T-TD SPREADS WILL LIKELY PROMOTE HIGH-BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. BRIEF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF SUFFICIENT COVERAGE OF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS OCCUR. ...ERN SD/ERN NEB/WRN IA... CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVES OUT OF SOUTHEAST MT WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO CENTRAL SD/NEB AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL FEED THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH OTHER STORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF PRIMARY MCS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS IN THIS ACTIVITY. ..HART/CROSBIE.. 06/19/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 13:22:04 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2006 09:22:04 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 191321 SWODY1 SPC AC 191319 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0819 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES...INTO THE MIDWEST... ...NY/PA/NEW ENGLAND... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW. ONE VORT MAX IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL OH AND SHOULD TRACK EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NY BY AROUND 18Z. EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES FROM NY/PA AND NEW ENGLAND SHOW MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TODAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THIS REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. MINIMAL CAP AND UPWARD FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS /30-45 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW/ SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS. LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT HAIL THREAT. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL NY/PA AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND BEFORE SUNSET. ...IL/IND/OH... SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE ACROSS THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-10 TO -12C AT 500MB/...WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG/FAVORABLE FOR MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIKELY LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS. THOSE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...MT/NERN WY/WRN DAKOTAS... SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ORE/ID. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO MT/WY THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE PLAINS OF EASTERN MT/NORTHEAST WY WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WESTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE EAST OF A BIL-SHR LINE. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES. ACTIVITY MAY MAINTAIN SEVERE INTENSITY INTO SOUTHWEST ND AND WESTERN SD DURING THE EVENING/NIGHT AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. ...NERN CO/SERN WY/WRN NEB... EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IS IN PLACE TODAY OVER EASTERN CO AND SOUTHEAST WY. STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG AND ONLY WEAK CAP. PRESENT INDICATION ARE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE FOOTHILLS/LARAMIE RANGE AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS PORTRAY VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS. 40+ DEGREE T-TD SPREADS WILL LIKELY PROMOTE HIGH-BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. BRIEF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF SUFFICIENT COVERAGE OF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS OCCUR. ...ERN SD/ERN NEB/WRN IA... CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVES OUT OF SOUTHEAST MT WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO CENTRAL SD/NEB AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL FEED THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH OTHER STORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF PRIMARY MCS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS IN THIS ACTIVITY. ..HART/CROSBIE.. 06/19/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 16:18:57 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2006 12:18:57 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 191618 SWODY1 SPC AC 191616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES...INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLVING INTO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS NRN CONUS WITH EMBEDDED S/WV TROUGHS. ONE IMPULSE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS NERN U.S THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING S/WV WRN GREAT LAKES MOVING ESEWD ACROSS OH VALLEY CROSSING APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT. FURTHER UPSTREAM TROUGH PAC NW DEAMPLIFIES AND QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS NRN ROCKIES TO NRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z TUE. ...NERN U.S... MOIST AND MDT TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NERN U.S. AHEAD OF S/WV TROUGH MOVING ENEWD CURRENTLY WRN NY/PA. WITH 35-40KT OF PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO 2500 J/KG...THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG AND AHEAD OF CURRENT BAND OF CONVECTION FROM WRN NY SWWD. GIVEN ONLY MODEST LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR...PRIMARY STORM MODE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LINE SEGMENTS/BOW WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL VEERING FOR ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH EITHER BOWS OR SUPERCELLS THAT COULD DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR. SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND EWD REACHING NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING PRIOR TO WEAKENING AS THEY ENCOUNTER MARINE AIR MASS. ...OH VALLEY EWD TO APPALACHIANS... LEADING EDGE OF DRIER AND A LITTLE COOLER AIR EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI SWWD TO CENTRAL IL AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SEWD. S/WV TROUGH NOTED IN W/V IMAGERY CURRENTLY MOVING ESEWD WITH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL 50KT WIND MAX AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL CROSS OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WITH MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG...LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND 35-40KT OF SHEAR...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS. ...NRN ROCKIES EWD ACROSS ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL AHEAD OF APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH THE COMBINATION OF STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND 50-60KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT...WILL INITIATE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER TERRAIN SRN MT/NRN BORDER AREAS OF WY. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE A THREAT WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SERN MT AND EVENTUALLY INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS. ...E SLOPES CO/WY... SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW SPREADING MOISTURE INTO ERN WY/WRN NE/SD. STRONG HEATING AND FAVORABLE VEERING SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT GIVEN EXPECTED MLCAPES TO AT LEAST 1000 J/KG FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP OFF HIGHER TERRAIN NERN CO/ERN WY DURING AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS SD/NE OVERNIGHT UNDER A FAVORABLE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 50KT KS INTO NEB. ..HALES/GRAMS.. 06/19/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 18:43:54 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2006 14:43:54 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 191843 SWODY1 SPC AC 191841 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 2 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0141 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES...INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLVING INTO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS NRN CONUS WITH EMBEDDED S/WV TROUGHS. ONE IMPULSE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS NERN U.S THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING S/WV WRN GREAT LAKES MOVING ESEWD ACROSS OH VALLEY CROSSING APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT. FURTHER UPSTREAM TROUGH PAC NW DEAMPLIFIES AND QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS NRN ROCKIES TO NRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z TUE. ...NERN U.S... MOIST AND MDT TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NERN U.S. AHEAD OF S/WV TROUGH MOVING ENEWD CURRENTLY WRN NY/PA. WITH 35-40KT OF PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO 2500 J/KG...THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG AND AHEAD OF CURRENT BAND OF CONVECTION FROM WRN NY SWWD. GIVEN ONLY MODEST LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR...PRIMARY STORM MODE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LINE SEGMENTS/BOW WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL VEERING FOR ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH EITHER BOWS OR SUPERCELLS THAT COULD DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR. SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND EWD REACHING NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING PRIOR TO WEAKENING AS THEY ENCOUNTER MARINE AIR MASS. ...OH VALLEY EWD TO APPALACHIANS... LEADING EDGE OF DRIER AND A LITTLE COOLER AIR EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI SWWD TO CENTRAL IL AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SEWD. S/WV TROUGH NOTED IN W/V IMAGERY CURRENTLY MOVING ESEWD WITH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL 50KT WIND MAX AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL CROSS OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WITH MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG...LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND 35-40KT OF SHEAR...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS. ...NRN ROCKIES EWD ACROSS ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL AHEAD OF APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH THE COMBINATION OF STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND 50-60KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT...WILL INITIATE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER TERRAIN SRN MT/NRN BORDER AREAS OF WY. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE A THREAT WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SERN MT AND EVENTUALLY INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS. ...E SLOPES CO/WY... SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW SPREADING MOISTURE INTO ERN WY/WRN NE/SD. STRONG HEATING AND FAVORABLE VEERING SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT GIVEN EXPECTED MLCAPES TO AT LEAST 1000 J/KG FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP OFF HIGHER TERRAIN NERN CO/ERN WY DURING AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS SD/NE OVERNIGHT UNDER A FAVORABLE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 50KT KS INTO NEB. ..HALES/GRAMS.. 06/19/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 19:47:06 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2006 15:47:06 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 191946 SWODY1 SPC AC 191944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID MO VALLEY... ...NERN U.S... AN ELONGATED SQUALL LINE HAS DEVELOPED FROM NRN VT...SWWD INTO ERN PA...MOVING EAST AT ROUGHLY 35KT. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAS PROVEN INSTRUMENTAL IN SQUALL LINE INTENSIFICATION AS LOWEST 3KM LAPSE RATES ARE NOW ROUGHLY 8C/KM OVER MOST OF NEW ENGLAND. ADDITIONALLY...CONTINUED SUNSHINE AND 40KT MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW SHOULD FORCE THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY. CONVECTION MAY APPROACH COASTAL ME/NH/MA BY 00Z GIVEN THE CURRENT SPEED/MOVEMENT. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY EVOLVE AHEAD OF THIS LINE IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WILL BE NOTED WITH THE MCS. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... TWO SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE EVOLVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON. NRN MOST ORGANIZED CLUSTER IS CURRENTLY OVER SRN ONTARIO BUT WILL SOON SPREAD ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NY...SWWD ALONG THE OH SHORELINE. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF DEVELOPING BOW ECHO OVER WRN LAKE ERIE...ALTHOUGH EXTENT OF LAKE INFLUENCES HAVE YET TO BE DETERMINED. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE CLEVELAND METRO AREA BY 21Z. STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO THE BUF REGION NEAR 21Z AS WELL GIVEN THE ORGANIZED NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER ONTARIO. FARTHER SOUTH...A SEVERE CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CNTRL IND...SPREADING SEWD TOWARD THE OH RIVER AS UPPER FLOW VEERS WITH TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD APPROACH LUK OVER THE NEXT HOUR WITH THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ...NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... STRONG HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN HAS FINALLY FORCED PARCELS TO THEIR LFC FROM SWRN MT INTO NWRN WY....AND SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE INTO CNTRL CO. NRN MOST ACTIVITY IS AIDED BY A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM EXPANSION THIS EVENING AS STORMS SPREAD OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO MORE FAVORABLE...YET RECOVERING...BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS. RAPID LLJ INTENSIFICATION FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO SERN MT SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE THE UPWARD EVOLVING MCS CLUSTERS AS THEY SPREAD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS MAY ALSO GENERATE ELEVATED...POTENTIALLY SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB INTO THE MID MO VALLEY REGION. ..DARROW.. 06/19/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 20 20:11:27 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2006 16:11:27 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 202009 SWODY1 SPC AC 202008 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO SRN WI/NRN IL... ...NEW ENGLAND... LOOSE SQUALL LINE HAS EMERGED FROM NWRN ME...SWWD INTO CNTRL NH. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING ESEWD AT ROUGHLY 25KT AND SHOULD APPROACH THE ME COAST BY 00Z. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND/OR BE OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH THE ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL OR LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED FARTHER SW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO NERN PA/NRN NJ. ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY REGION... CONVECTIVE CARCASS FROM OVERNIGHT MCS HAS PROGRESSED ACROSS IA INTO NRN IL WHERE A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE SURVIVED ALONG LEADING EDGE...LARGELY DRIVEN BY LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. AIRMASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN IL IS NOW UNCAPPED...AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE. IT/S NOT PARTICULARLY CLEAR WHETHER NEW UPDRAFTS CAN DEVELOP ALONG SRN FRINGE OF OLD MCS CLOUD SHIELD...IF SO VERTICAL SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINING ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF GENERATING SOME HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SWRN/WRN PORTIONS OF THIS CLOUD CANOPY FROM NERN KS/ERN NEB INTO CNTRL IA. VERY STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS INTO IA. SFC PARCELS WILL REQUIRE CONTINUED HEATING FOR CAP REMOVAL BASED ON LATEST DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS. VERY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE DEVELOPED UPSTREAM ACROSS WRN/CNTRL KS WHERE READINGS ARE NOW APPROACHING 100 F NEAR RSL. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG DRY LINE DUE TO THE INTENSE SFC HEATING...LATEST THINKING IS SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SWLY TRAJECTORIES THROUGH 850MB WILL AGITATE ERN EDGE OF CAP ATOP RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER SWRN IA LATER THIS EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE FROM CNTRL IA...SWWD INTO SERN NEB BY 00Z. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD UPWARD EVOLVE INTO MCS CLUSTER WITH TIME EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO SWRN WI/NWRN IL LATER TONIGHT. FARTHER WEST...HIGH BASED CU AND DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM SERN WY INTO CNTRL CO ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS NELY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT MAINTAINS/MOISTENS CNTRL HIGH PLAINS REGION. SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO AN MCS OVER WRN/SWRN NEB LATE THIS EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..DARROW.. 06/20/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 00:58:44 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2006 20:58:44 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 210057 SWODY1 SPC AC 210056 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND WRN GREAT LAKES... ...WRN SD INTO ERN CO/WRN KS... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE IN PROGRESS FROM SWRN SD INTO NERN CO WITHIN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES AS HIGH AS 3000-3500 J/KG PER LBF SOUNDING. ELY TO NELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A TORNADO OR TWO ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH ANY RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL MEMBERS...PARTICULARLY OVER FAR NERN CO INTO SWRN NEB. STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A MCS WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND SEVERE HAIL THREAT SPREADING EWD ACROSS NEB AND NRN KS TONIGHT. OTHER SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HIGH WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL MAY DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE FRONT OVER W-CNTRL INTO N-CNTRL KS...ESPECIALLY AS LLJ INCREASES THIS EVENING AND EFFECTIVELY ENHANCES CONVERGENCE WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE. ...CNTRL/ERN NEB EWD/NEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES... COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN EXISTS EWD INTO THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING AS A RESULT OF OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER MCS WHICH HAS SINCE DECAYED. ERN EXTENSION OF NWRN KS COLD FRONT STRETCHES NEWD THROUGH S-CNTRL NEB TO NWRN IA...WHERE IT BECOMES MORE QUASI-STATIONARY INTO SRN MN. EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM INTERSECTION WITH COLD/STATIONARY FRONT OVER NWRN IA SEWD TO NEAR DSM AND INTO N-CNTRL MO. A SECONDARY NW-SE BOUNDARY ALSO EXTENDS FROM NEAR DSM SEWD THROUGH SERN IA THROUGH CNTRL IL INTO SWRN IND. 00Z OMA SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT AIR MASS HAS BECOME WEAKLY CAPPED WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 3000 J/KG. DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG ANY OF THESE ABOVE-MENTIONED BOUNDARIES...THOUGH STORM INITIATION APPEARS MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN IA SERN MN INTO WI AND IL AS SWLY LLJ INCREASES...ENHANCING ISENTROPIC ASCENT NE/E OF FRONTAL ZONE. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ELEVATED ABOVE STABLE SURFACE LAYER E OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES...THOUGH A FEW SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY ANCHOR WHERE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES STILL EXISTS GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS THREAT SPREADING E OF LAKE MI LATE TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EXPANDING WAA PATTERN. FARTHER TO THE W OVER CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO WRN IA...STORMS MAY EITHER DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING AS LLJ INCREASES...OR MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE W LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 45-55 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO. ...NEW ENGLAND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY... CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OVER ERN NH INTO SWRN ME...AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF MA/CT/RI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS CONVECTION IS WITHIN ZONE OF RELATIVELY STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE AND HUDSON VALLEYS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH 02Z WITH STORMS WEAKENING THEREAFTER. ..MEAD.. 06/21/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 06:00:52 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 02:00:52 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 210600 SWODY1 SPC AC 210558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI...MUCH OF NRN IL...NRN IND AND NWRN OH... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... BELT OF 40-60KT...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A REGION OF HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THIS SAME GENERAL AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. A LOWER LATITUDE IMPULSE NOW OVER NEB WILL TRANSLATE EWD TODAY...REACHING THE SWRN GREAT LAKES BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE HUDSON VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...WEAK WARM FRONT FROM N-CNTRL IA INTO SWRN IND WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY MORE QUASI-STATIONARY AND W-E ORIENTED FROM NRN IL THROUGH SRN IA/NRN MO AND NERN INTO W-CNTRL KS. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING. ...GREAT LAKES WWD INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY... AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS ANTICIPATED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES WHERE THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST. MCS CURRENTLY EVOLVING OVER NEB WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP EWD THROUGH IA PRIOR TO 21/12Z...DRIVEN LARGELY BY LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG 40-45 KT SWLY LLJ. THOUGH SOME DIURNAL WEAKENING MAY OCCUR... RE-INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COMPRISING MCS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF ERN IA/SRN WI/NRN IL. THEREAFTER...INTENSIFYING MCS SHOULD RAPIDLY MOVE EWD THROUGH NRN IND...CNTRL AND SRN LOWER MI AND NRN OH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PERHAPS AS FAR E AS WRN AND CNTRL PA/NY OVERNIGHT. A MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WITHIN INFLOW AIR MASS OVER CNTRL IL INTO NRN AND CNTRL PART OF IND/OH. THIS INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH 40-50 KT DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES CAPABLE OF CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING ALONG SRN FLANK OF LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL BACKBUILDING STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM SRN IA/NRN MO WWD INTO NRN KS ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OR COMPOSITE BOUNDARY MODULATED BY MCS OUTFLOW. GIVEN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG/ AND 30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER SEVERE STORMS WITH HIGH WINDS/HAIL MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF WI...PERHAPS WWD INTO MN ALONG COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD THROUGH AREA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ACROSS PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS OWING TO RESIDUAL CONVECTIVELY-PROCESSED FROM EARLIER MCS. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S/...COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ FROM VICINITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY NWD INTO POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL LARGELY DRIVE DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY DISCERNIBLE IMPULSES IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG /20-25 KTS/...THOUGH ELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN 30-35 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER WRN KS TONIGHT. THE DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST SWD TO THE RATON MESA AREA AND SECONDARY SURFACE LOW OVER THE NWRN TX PNHDL WITHIN HOTTER AND DEEPER MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER ENVIRONMENT. ..MEAD.. 06/21/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 11:58:27 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 07:58:27 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 211157 SWODY1 SPC AC 211156 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST IA...ACROSS NORTHERN IL...NORTHERN IND...SOUTHERN LOWER MI...AND NORTHWEST OH... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... FAST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS PRESENT TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NATION...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN AXIS OF ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER TODAY FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ...UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES... LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS IS AFFECTING PARTS OF EASTERN IA/NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE IN REGION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS. CELLS ALONG THIS AXIS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO LOWER MI. MEANWHILE...COMPACT VORT MAX IS SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE OVER EASTERN NEB. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE MO/IA BORDER AND INTO NORTHERN IL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INITIATE FURTHER CONVECTION BY LATE MORNING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING STORMS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE WITH A RISK OF SUPERCELLS...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...FAVORABLE KINEMATIC FIELDS...AND APPROACHING TROUGH SUGGEST THAT ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR UPSCALE ORGANIZATION OF SYSTEM DURING THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN LOWER MI/NORTHERN IND/NORTHWEST OH. WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS AXIS...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. IF ACTIVITY CAN BECOME SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED...DERECHO MAY PERSIST INTO WESTERN NY OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE PRESENT AGAIN THIS MORNING OVER THE PLAINS OF CO. THIS REGIME IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...BENEATH RELATIVELY FAST WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL FORM BY MID AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS BY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS EASTERN CO AND NORTHEAST NM SHOW VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FIELDS FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AS STORMS SPREAD INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEB...WESTERN KS...AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. FAST-MOVING MCS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL KS. ..HART/CROSBIE.. 06/21/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 16:40:35 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 12:40:35 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 211639 SWODY1 SPC AC 211637 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN IA INTO NRN AND CENTRAL IL...NRN INDIANA AND THE SRN HALF OF LOWER MI INTO NRN OHIO.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDS THE MDT RISK AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ESEWD OVER THE SRN PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS AND THE SRN GREAT LAKES ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. MAIN FEATURES TO MONITOR TODAY WILL BE THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING FROM IA INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL SWING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MN SWD THROUGH NWRN IA INTO NWRN KS...AND A WEAK TROUGH/FRONT THAT TRAILS SWWD INTO S CENTRAL NM. AHEAD OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY PORTION OF THE FRONT THERE ARE SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES THAT EXTEND EWD ACROSS NRN IA TO A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS SEWD THROUGH SWRN OH. ...NRN HALF OF IL ENEWD THRU NRN OH... FIRST EMBEDDED WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN LOWER MI THRU TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE FORCING ALONG CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY DURING THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 35-45 KT IS EXPECTED FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NWD AND NEWD OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY THEN EWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL INITIALLY PROVIDE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION IN THE VICINITY OF THESE BOUNDARIES. AIR MASS IS PLENTY MOIST NOW WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND WITH ADDED DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS. ANALYSIS OF RUC/NAM POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MLCAPES WILL BE BETWEEN 2500 AND 3100 J/KG BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN LOWER MI...NRN INDIANA AND NRN OH WITH 850/700 MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5/8.0 C/KM. THUS...EXPECT AREA OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAIN THREATS BEING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...THE PRESENCE OF SOME SPEED SHEAR AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...WOULD NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL IL INTO NRN OH. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW/MID 60S DEW POINTS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EASTWARD ACCOMPANIED BY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH NWRN MN. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER NERN MN AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO SWWD AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO WRN UPPER MI AND NWRN WI. MODELS INDICATE STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND STRONG MID LEVEL DRYING ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. AIR MASS THROUGH CENTRAL WI INTO WRN UPPER MI IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1500 AND 1800 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS CENTRAL NEB AND CENTRAL KS... MODELS GENERATE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF CO EARLY THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING ALONG QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM EXTREME NWRN MO INTO THE WRN OK PANHANDLE AND WILL ENHANCE ELY/UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE AREA TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S LEADING TO INSTABILITY BETWEEN 1800 AND 2500 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP INTO CLUSTER/MCS TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL INTO CENTRAL KS/PARTS OF CENTRAL NEB TONIGHT. ..MCCARTHY.. 06/21/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 16:54:40 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 12:54:40 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 211653 SWODY1 SPC AC 211652 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN IA INTO NRN AND CENTRAL IL...NRN INDIANA AND THE SRN HALF OF LOWER MI INTO NRN OHIO.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDS THE MDT RISK AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... CORRECTED FOR SWRN TO SERN IA... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ESEWD OVER THE SRN PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS AND THE SRN GREAT LAKES ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. MAIN FEATURES TO MONITOR TODAY WILL BE THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING FROM IA INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL SWING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MN SWD THROUGH NWRN IA INTO NWRN KS...AND A WEAK TROUGH/FRONT THAT TRAILS SWWD INTO S CENTRAL NM. AHEAD OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY PORTION OF THE FRONT THERE ARE SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES THAT EXTEND EWD ACROSS NRN IA TO A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS SEWD THROUGH SWRN OH. ...NRN HALF OF IL ENEWD THRU NRN OH... FIRST EMBEDDED WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN LOWER MI THRU TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE FORCING ALONG CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY DURING THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 35-45 KT IS EXPECTED FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NWD AND NEWD OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY THEN EWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL INITIALLY PROVIDE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION IN THE VICINITY OF THESE BOUNDARIES. AIR MASS IS PLENTY MOIST NOW WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND WITH ADDED DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS. ANALYSIS OF RUC/NAM POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MLCAPES WILL BE BETWEEN 2500 AND 3100 J/KG BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN LOWER MI...NRN INDIANA AND NRN OH WITH 850/700 MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5/8.0 C/KM. THUS...EXPECT AREA OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAIN THREATS BEING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...THE PRESENCE OF SOME SPEED SHEAR AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...WOULD NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL IL INTO NRN OH. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW/MID 60S DEW POINTS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EASTWARD ACCOMPANIED BY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH NWRN MN. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER NERN MN AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO SWWD AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO WRN UPPER MI AND NWRN WI. MODELS INDICATE STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND STRONG MID LEVEL DRYING ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. AIR MASS THROUGH CENTRAL WI INTO WRN UPPER MI IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1500 AND 1800 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS CENTRAL NEB AND CENTRAL KS... MODELS GENERATE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF CO EARLY THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING ALONG QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM EXTREME NWRN MO INTO THE WRN OK PANHANDLE AND WILL ENHANCE ELY/UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE AREA TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S LEADING TO INSTABILITY BETWEEN 1800 AND 2500 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP INTO CLUSTER/MCS TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL INTO CENTRAL KS/PARTS OF CENTRAL NEB TONIGHT. ..MCCARTHY.. 06/21/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 20:07:28 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 16:07:28 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 212005 SWODY1 SPC AC 212003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN IL TO WRN LAKE ERIE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES TO WRN NY... ...NRN IL TO LAKE ERIE... MOST NOTABLE CHANGE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA IS THE RAPID DESTABILIZATION FROM IND INTO WRN OH/SRN LOWER MI. THIS AIRMASS RECOVERY IS THE RESULT OF NW-SE ORIENTED WARM FRONT GRADUALLY RETREATING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS CU FIELD IS EXPANDING/DEEPENING ALONG THE IND/OH BORDER INTO SRN LOWER MI WHICH SHOULD EVOLVE INTO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS SUSTAINED IN THIS REGION. SHEAR PROFILES ARE STRONG...WITH SFC-6KM VALUES IN EXCESS OF 50-60KT. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY INITIATE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WHERE EXTREME INSTABILITY IS PRESSING EWD ALONG ZONE OF SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION. IF DISCRETE STORMS CAN INDEED DEVELOP...TORNADOES ARE CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY PRIOR TO MORE ORGANIZED MCS ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...VERY LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR. UPSTREAM...WEAK MVC REMAINS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER NERN IA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY ORGANIZING ALONG WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...TRAILING SWWD TO NEAR THE MO BORDER. DEEP WSWLY FLOW HAS SLOWED THE UPWARD GROWTH OF THIS ACTIVITY...BUT WITH TIME A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS...AND POSSIBLE DERECHO MAY EVOLVE AS CONVECTION SPREADS EWD ACROSS NRN IL TOWARD NRN IND/SRN LOWER MI LATER TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IF THIS EVOLUTION OCCURS. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY ALONG THE CNTRL/SRN FRONT RANGE OF CO AS NELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INCREASES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE MOISTENING CONTINUES...AND LLJ SHOULD INCREASE LATER TONIGHT. IT APPEARS MULTIPLE SUPERCELL CLUSTERS/MERGERS WILL EVOLVE OVER ERN CO/WRN KS LATER TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...VEERED LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE ORIENTATION FROM THE WRN TX PANHANDLE...NEWD INTO THE ERN OK PANHANDLE WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS TROUGH WITH READINGS NOW APPROACHING 100F. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH BASED BUT MAY ROOT INTO MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE JUST EAST OF THE DRY LINE...IF SO VERY LARGE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE OTHERWISE GUSTY DOWNDRAFT ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. ..DARROW.. 06/21/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 01:14:22 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 21:14:22 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 220114 SWODY1 SPC AC 220112 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0812 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES TO S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL BECOME MOST PROMINENT FEATURE ALOFT NOW THAT CYCLONE FARTHER E HAS LIFTED INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES. EMBEDDED IN BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW IS WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN SHORE OF LS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT ACCELERATES ENEWD ACROSS NRN ONT. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN MT AND WY -- SHOULD MOVE EWD TOWARD N-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. AT SFC...SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM E-CENTRAL UPPER MI AND ERN LS SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL IA AND CENTRAL KS...TO NRN TX PANHANDLE AND NERN NM. PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES ARE ANALYZED FROM NERN OH WWD ACROSS NRN INDIANA...WITH ANOTHER WEAK PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NERN KS ACROSS NRN MO AND N-CENTRAL IL. DRYLINE INTERSECTS FRONT OVER TX/NM BORDER AND EXTENDS SSWWD ACROSS SERN NM. ...SRN GREAT LAKES/MID/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION... CLUSTER OF TSTMS NOW OVER NWRN OH AND ADJACENT PORTIONS LE HAS YIELDED REPORTS OF DAMAGING WIND...HAIL...TORNADO AND FUNNEL CLOUDS. MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES FURTHER EWD ACROSS NRN OH AND LE SHORE DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL HAIL AND BRIEF TORNADOES POSSIBLE. LINE OF STG-SVR STMS ALSO IS MOVING EWD ATTM ACROSS NRN INDIANA. AT 2251Z...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE GUST WAS MEASURED WITH LATTER ACTIVITY ON INDIANA LAKESHORE...AND ADDITIONAL SEVERE GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED AS THIS CLUSTER AND/OR NWRN OH/WRN LE MCS MOVES ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING. REF WWS 530...532 AND 536...AS WELL AS ACCOMPANYING MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS...FOR LATEST NEAR-TERM FCST INFO. EXPECT MORE COHESIVE MCS TO CONSOLIDATE FROM THIS ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...AND TO TURN ESEWD OR SEWD...ESPECIALLY ON ITS SWRN END. THIS PROCESS SHOULD RESULT FROM PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT OF MCS MOTION...BACKBUILDING INTO 30-40 KT WLY LLJ. MEANWHILE COLD POOL DRIVEN VERTICAL CIRCULATION MAY DRIVE ERN PORTION OF ACTIVITY INTO NERN OH AND WRN PA WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...BEFORE THIS SEGMENT OF MCS MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR AND WEAKENS. ADDITIONAL /UPSCALE COLD POOL GROWTH MAY THEN OCCUR FARTHER SW ACROSS OH PORTION OF MCS WITH POTENTIAL MOTION ACROSS OH RIVER INTO PORTIONS WV AND/OR NERN KY OVERNIGHT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO SRN HIGH PLAINS... STG-SVR TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SEVERAL CLUSTERS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE...FROM ERN PORTIONS KS/NEB BORDER SWWD ACROSS TX PANHANDLE TO SERN NM. OTHER STG-SVR TSTMS ARE EVIDENT IN POSTFRONTAL/UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME OVER EXTREME ERN CO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO AREAS OF FAVORABLE BUOYANCY AND AT LEAST MRGLLY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR BOTH BOWS AND SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST AND SHIFT GENERALLY EWD OVER WRN/NERN KS...S-CENTRAL KS...ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES AND WRN/NRN OK DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH MOST SVR EVENTS CONSISTING OF HAIL AND GUSTS. REF SPC WWS 529...531...533...535...AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS..FOR NOWCAST INFO. SVR POTENTIAL ON MOST OF HIGH PLAINS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF SFC HEATING AND EXPANSION OF STABLE OUTFLOW POOLS...EXCEPT ACROSS NWRN KS. ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z OVER PORTIONS NRN MO/SRN IA AND PERHAPS NRN IL INVOF SFC FRONTAL ZONE. BOTH SFC-BASED AND ELEVATED BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH MOIST PROFILES FROM BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH 800 MB...AND ROUGHLY 8 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...PER LATEST RAOBS. SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS.. 06/22/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 06:04:47 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 02:04:47 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 220604 SWODY1 SPC AC 220602 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN NEE ENGLAND TO SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... BASIC UPPER AIR PATTERN IS FCST TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL ACROSS NRN HALF OF CONUS...AS CANADIAN MARITIMES TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM AREA. SRN RIM OF CYCLONIC FLOW -- ORBITING HUDSON BAY LOW -- WILL COVER PORTIONS GREAT LAKES BUT REMAIN LARGELY N OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE. FRONT ITSELF IS PROGGED TO BE QUASISTATIONARY OVER MOST OF ITS LENGTH AND TO EXTEND FROM ERN GREAT LAKES WSWWD ACROSS IL...MO...INTO NRN TX PANHANDLE OR OK PANHANDLE...AND SERN CO. HOWEVER...ACTUAL POSITION OF SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE SHUNTED FARTHER S IN MANY AREAS BY NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. TWO PRIMARY SEVERE AREAS WOULD BE FAVORED PURELY BY PATTERN RECOGNITION -- NERN CONUS AND CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS -- HOWEVER...THESE ALSO ARE BEING MOST STRONGLY AFFECTED ATTM BY LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES. MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES PREDOMINATE ATTM WITH STRONG CONDITIONAL DEPENDENCE OF SVR POTENTIAL ON BOUNDARY CHARACTER/ORIENTATION. WILL MAINTAIN BROAD AREA OF ESSENTIALLY CONSTANT PROBABILITIES ATTM...THOUGH A FEW RELATIVELY DENSE CONCENTRATIONS OF SVR ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THIS BROAD CORRIDOR. ...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS... TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN ARE EVIDENT JUST IN THIS REGION WITH SOME SPATIAL OVERLAP... 1. INITIAL UPSLOPE RELATED DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN CO/NERN NM THAT MAY RESULT IN ONE OR TWO SEVERE MCS FROM WRN KS INTO TX PANHANDLE AND PERHAPS WRN OK OVERNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ELY/UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD CONTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANTLY TO SHEAR...BOTH IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP-LAYER BULKS SHEAR...FAVORING AFTERNOON SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE BUOYANCY ALSO. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS STRONG ENOUGH IN POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO INTRODUCE SIGNIFICANT-HAIL PROBABILITIES...THOUGH MESOSCALE FACTORS MAY WARRANT EXTENSION SEWD INTO LOW PLAINS IN LATER OUTLOOKS. PRIMARY POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT FROM DUAL HAIL/WIND THREAT TO MOSTLY WIND AS RESULTING MCS MOVES SEWD ACROSS HIGH PLAINS. 2. FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RELATED DEVELOPMENT FROM TX PANHANDLE ENEWD ACROSS OK...SRN KS...AND MO. AMBIENT AIR MASS -- UNDISTURBED BY PRIOR CONVECTION -- WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY 8-9 DEG C/KM LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...RICH SFC-850 MOIST LAYER AND AT LEAST MRGLLY FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES LOCALLY SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG ZONALLY ORIENTED OR NW-SE BOUNDARIES...HELPING TO COUNTERACT WEAK MIDLEVEL WINDS. MCV -- NOW EVIDENT OVER S-CENTRAL KS...ALSO MAY PROVIDE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT TO VERTICAL SHEAR AND TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AS INDICATED BY BOTH MAN-WRF AND SPECTRAL MODELS. ...OH VALLEY TO NERN CONUS... SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR AS EARLY AS MID-LATE MORNING...AND CONTINUING EPISODICALLY INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT-SVR AREA OR LARGER MODAL PROBABILITIES...HOWEVER ONE OR TWO SVR MCS MAY DEVELOP FROM EARLY ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH HAIL IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITH DISCRETE CELLS...PRIND MORE LONG-LASTING SEVERE MODE WOULD BE DAMAGING GUSTS...GIVEN NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL CHARACTER OF DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELDS. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM WSW AND W...AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AWAY FROM BOUNDARIES...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS. BUOYANCY MAY BE EVEN STRONGER OVER PORTIONS INDIANA/IL...HOWEVER WEAKER CONVERGENCE ALSO IS EXPECTED INVOF FRONTAL ZONE. ..EDWARDS/CROSBIE.. 06/22/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 15:52:48 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 11:52:48 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 221550 SWODY1 SPC AC 221548 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1048 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF MID MS AND MUCH OF OHIO VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND TX/OK PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS MID MS VALLEY TO NY/PA... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD TROUGH CENTRAL U.S. WITH UPPER HIGH PARKED OVER CA. WHILE STRONGEST WIND FIELDS REMAIN ACROSS NRN STATES...A COUPLE MID IMPULSES HAVE EMERGED FROM WEDNESDAYS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MCV TRACKING EWD ACROSS NRN IL CURRENTLY DRIVING EARLY STORM DEVELOPMENT THAT AREA. UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH ERN KS WILL MOVE ACROSS MO AND MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK TROUGH IN THE WNWLY FLOW CURRENTLY CROSSING CENTRAL ROCKIES...NOTED IN W/V IMAGERY...WILL ENHANCE SHEAR AND STORM POTENTIAL E SLOPES THIS AFTERNOON. ...MID MS AND OH VALLEY... MORNING SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICT A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE TO THE S AND E OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES THAT EXTEND FROM LWR MI SWWD ACROSS NRN IL TO MO. WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7C/KM AND MUCH OF AREA RECEIVING STRONG HEATING...MLCAPES OF 3000 J/KG WILL BE COMMON BY MID AFTERNOON. THE ENHANCED MID LEVEL SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TWO MID LEVEL IMPULSES CENTRAL U.S. SUPPORT A VERY ACTIVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DAY FROM MID MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY. SUFFICIENT SHEAR COUPLED WITH THE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELLS AMD ORGANIZED LINES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS PRIMARY THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOS COULD OCCUR IN FAVORABLY ENHANCED SHEAR VICINITY BOUNDARIES. FURTHER E ACROSS PA/NY CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING WHICH WILL ALLOW STRONG DESTABILIZATION AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURES CONTINUES SPREADING E. 30-35 KT OF SHEAR AND MLCAPES UPWARDS TO 2000 J/KG SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...WIND/HAIL...WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS WORKED WWD TO FRONT RANGE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL TROUGH BOTH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AN ACTIVE SEVERE DAY FROM ERN CO SEWD TO TX/OK PANHANDLES. NEAR FULL HEATING WILL ALLOW STORM INITIATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHER TERRAIN AS MLCAPES INCREASE TO 2000 J/KG. STORMS THEN WILL MOVE E/SEWD INTO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE VEERING SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND STRONGER INSTABILITY. SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER SHEAR AND FAVORABLY LOW LFC'S SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. SEVERE THREAT WILL PROPAGATE SEWD AND CONTINUE AFTER DARK. ...SERN AZ... HAVE ADDED ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT THIS AREA AS PW'S HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR AN INCH AND STEEP LAPSE RATES REMAIN. STORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WILL PROPAGATE INTO DESERTS VALLEYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH DCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS ARE LIKELY. ..HALES/GUYER.. 06/22/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 19:44:50 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 15:44:50 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 221942 SWODY1 SPC AC 221940 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISKS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO NY... ...MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY... TWO LONG LIVED MCS/S HAVE REINTENSIFIED OVER THE OH AND MID MS VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD MCS HAS EXPANDED MARKEDLY OVER NRN OH THE LAST FEW HOURS. ACTUAL VORT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS LOCATED OVER SRN LOWER MI...BUT CLEARLY THE LARGE SCALE INFLUENCE STRETCHES SWD INTO OH WHERE INSTABILITY IS QUITE HIGH WITH MODEST SWLY FLOW AT 6KM. A COLD POOL APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING OVER NERN IND/NWRN OH. THIS MAY AID DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS SQUALL LINE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND RACES EWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NRN/CNTRL OH INTO WRN PA. ADDITIONALLY...MULTIPLE DISCRETE STORMS HAVE EVOLVED AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE AND THEY WILL SPREAD INTO WRN PA A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF DAMAGING SQUALL LINE. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER WELL DEFINED UPPER VORT IS BECOMING WELL DEFINED WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL MO. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STRENGTHENED ACROSS MO AND APPEAR TO BE ORGANIZING INTO A SQUALL LINE FROM EAST OF JEF TRAILING SWWD INTO NWRN AR. VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH MLCAPES TO 3000J/KG...WHICH WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED UPWARD GROWTH OF MCS AS IT SPREADS EWD INTO SRN IL/SRN IND. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AS SQUALL LINE MATURES OVER MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. ...SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN CO INTO NERN NM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS IS QUITE BUOYANT AT THIS TIME WITH CU FIELD EXPANDING AHEAD OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...MCS SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR FROM NORTH OF COS TO NEAR GLD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD SEWD WITHIN FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR MAINTAINING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN LARGER MCS-TYPE COMPLEX. VERY LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY CONVECTION AS IT SPREADS TOWARD THE TX PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH...STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS SLOWING ITS WWD PROPAGATION OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MEANDER ABOUT IN THE LBB REGION...DRIVEN BY STORM PROCESSES AS FLOW ALOFT IS MUCH WEAKER OVER THIS REGION. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..DARROW.. 06/22/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 23 01:02:01 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 21:02:01 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 230101 SWODY1 SPC AC 230059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN NEW ENGLAND ALONG OH VALLEY TO NWRN TN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN CHARACTERIZES MID/UPPER LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF N HALF OF CONUS...WITH SOME CYCLONIC FLOW OVER GREAT LAKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH HUDSON BAY VORTEX. WEAK MEAN TROUGH AND CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE ALOFT IS EVIDENT FROM CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SWWD ACROSS MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX REGION TO S TX. THIS INCLUDES CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION....NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND VWP/PROFILER DATA OVER MO. PRIMARY SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE IS CHARACTERIZED BY EXTENSIVE COLLECTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM WRN NY...ERRATICALLY SWWD TO SRN HIGH PLAINS. ...MID-UPPER OH VALLEY...NERN CONUS... SEVERAL BANDS OF STG-SVR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND SEWD THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS WRN NY...PA...WV AND NRN KY. FOREGOING/INFLOW AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLE BUOYANCY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN PA INTO WRN NJ WHERE MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 4-5Z IN PRECONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. REF WWS 541...543...546...AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR ADDITIONAL NOWCAST INFO. SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 4Z AMIDST WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AS BUOYANCY BEGINS TO DIMINISH. ...OZARKS TO LOWER OH VALLEY REGION... ORGANIZED LINEAR MCS OVER S-CENTRAL/SWRN IL...EXTREME SERN MO AND NWRN AR HAS SHOWN WEAKENING TRENDS DURING PAST COUPLE HOURS. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MO SHOULD MOVE EWD UP OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT -- RESULTING BOTH FROM DPVA AND LOW LEVEL WAA -- SHOULD CONTRIBUTE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION ALOFT TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND/OR MAINTENANCE OF ACTIVITY NOW AHEAD OF MCS ACROSS INDIANA/SERN IL AND CENTRAL/WRN KY. DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE IN SUFFICIENT DENSITY TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK ACROSS THIS REGION. ...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS... NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE CONSOLIDATING ATTM FROM WRN KS AND EXTREME EWD CO...SWD INTO NERN NM AND WRN PORTIONS TX/OK PANHANDLES. SVR HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS ACTIVITY MOVES SEWD THROUGH FAVORABLY STRONG LOW LEVEL THETAE AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...OVERLAIN BY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS IS EVIDENT IN MODIFIED DDC RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. REF WWS 544...545...AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR ADDITIONAL NOWCAST INFO. AMIDST NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW...RESULTING MCS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF SWRN/S-CENTRAL KS...PORTIONS WRN/NRN OK...AND PERHAPS TX PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE WEAK ATTM PER NWRN OK PROFILER DATA...STRENGTHENING LLJ SHOULD ENHANCE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW ACROSS THIS REGION...IN ENVIRONMENT OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR PROPAGATION OF MCS MAY BE INTO INSTABILITY AXIS EVIDENT ACROSS NRN TX/OK PANHANDLES...INTO NWRN/W-CENTRAL OK...WHICH IS LOCATED AROUND NRN/NERN RIM OF CENTRAL/SRN TX PANHANDLE AIR MASS THAT HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZED BY EARLIER ACTIVITY. OCCASIONAL HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS.. 06/23/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 23 06:08:29 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2006 02:08:29 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 230603 SWODY1 SPC AC 230602 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NEW ENGLAND TO LOWER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN GREAT PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... SUBTLE PATTERN SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH PERIOD...AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS GREAT BASIN AND DIFFUSE TROUGHING DEVELOPS FROM OH VALLEY ACROSS SERN CONUS...S OF PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY VORTEX. SEVERAL MINOR MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN NWLY/WLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL/ERN CONUS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE CONVECTIVELY DEVELOPED/ENHANCED AS MCV FEATURES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN WA AND SWRN BC -- APPEARS TO BE POORLY RESOLVED BY MOST 23/00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND EVEN MOST 22/21Z SREFX MEMBERS...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL. THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH MEAN RIDGE AND REACH N-CENTRAL PLAINS AROUND 24/00Z. AT SFC...BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS BEEN DIFFUSED GREATLY BY NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...BUT GENERALLY EXTENDS FROM NY SWWD ALONG OH VALLEY TO SRN HIGH PLAINS. ...NEW ENGLAND TO LOWER MS VALLEY... UP TO 2-3 CLUSTERS OR BANDS OF TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS AREA...MOVING GENERALLY EWD...MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND. MARGINALLY SVR HAIL ALSO IS LIKELY...WITH LINEAR AND MULTICELLULAR MODES PREDOMINANT. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT LOCATION OF MOST CONCENTRATED THREAT...GIVEN PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW AIR OVER REGION ATTM. THEREFORE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES MAY BE COMPRESSED/DIVIDED OR SHIFTED IN SUCCEEDING OUTLOOKS. PRIND MOST SVR ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE... 1. FROM AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW-REINFORCED BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND/OR 2. ALONG/AHEAD OF REMNANTS OF MORNING MCS...AIDED BY ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES...AND MESOSCALE SHEAR/UVV ENHANCEMENTS PROVIDED BY MCVS. SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK AS PROSPECTIVE INFLOW LAYERS ARE STABILIZED BY COMBINATION OF SFC DIABATIC COOLING...OUTFLOW AIR...AND NEAR COAST...RELATIVELY COLD SEA BREEZE. ...CENTRAL/NRN GREAT PLAINS... TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD FORM INITIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF BLACK HILLS SWD TOWARD NERN CO...AND DEVELOP/SPREAD SEWD AMIDST INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER PACIFIC NW. WHEN COMBINED WITH NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW...SELY SFC WINDS EMANATING FROM POSTFRONTAL AIR MASS WILL YIELD FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM SWRN/S-CENTRAL SD SWD THROUGH WRN NEB. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN POSTFRONTAL ORIGIN OF INFLOW-LAYER TRAJECTORIES...WITH SFC DEW POINTS REMAINING GENERALLY IN 50S F. HOWEVER...BENEATH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 9 DEG C/KM...THIS SHOULD SUFFICE TO YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF OUTLOOK AREA. COMBINED CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL FROM SOME TSTMS BEFORE ACTIVITY EVOLVES INTO ONE OR TWO SEWD-MOVING...NOCTURNAL MCS WITH DAMAGING WIND MAIN THREAT. STRONGLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO DIURNAL WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. ...SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY... SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED INVOF LOOSELY DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE...FROM LOWER MS VALLEY WSWWD ACROSS ARKLATEX...N AND W TX...ERN NM...AND PORTIONS TX/OK PANHANDLES. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR IN ENVIRONMENTS OF FAVORABLE BUOYANCY -- I.E. MLCAPES 1500-3000 J/KG -- AND MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE SVR HAIL/GUSTS. EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE OVER THIS REGION IS YET TO TAKE SHAPE AND WILL BE STRONGLY MODIFIED/MODULATED BY POSITION AND STRENGTH OF OUTFLOW AIR MASSES LEFT BEHIND BY PRIOR OVERNIGHT/MORNING ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH A FEW COLD POOL DRIVEN MULTICELL CLUSTERS MAY CONCENTRATE SVR REPORTS WITHIN THIS BROAD ARC...MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES AND LACK OF MORE ROBUST KINEMATIC SUPPORT PRECLUDE MORE THAN MRGL SVR PROBABILITIES ATTM. VERTICAL WIND AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE FCST TO BE QUITE WEAK ACROSS MOST OF THIS AREA...INDICATING LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SVR EVENT. ..EDWARDS/TAYLOR.. 06/23/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 23 12:58:27 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2006 08:58:27 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 231258 SWODY1 SPC AC 231256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VLY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST / NORTHEAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER WRN PARTS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPR LOW WILL LINGER OVER ERN HUDSON BAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS GRT BASIN RIDGE BUILDS N INTO THE PACIFIC NW. SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES EVIDENT IN SATELLITE LOOPS FROM ALBERTA SEWD INTO MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS SHOULD AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THEIR WEST. IN THE EAST...SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES REMAIN SOMEWHAT MASKED BY MCS DEBRIS. APPARENT SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND/OR MCVS DO...HOWEVER...APPEAR ATTM OVER IL/IND...AND OVER SRN WV. ...TN VLY TO NEW ENG... THIS MORNING'S SURFACE DATA SHOW EVIDENCE OF YESTERDAY'S WIDESPREAD STORMS FROM THE OH VLY TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH DEWPOINTS SOMEWHAT DEPRESSED IN THAT REGION RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER S ACROSS VA/NC. SURFACE HEATING OF DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT LIKELY WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS ALONG A BROAD CORRIDOR FROM KY/TN NEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN NEW ENG. WEAK COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM UPSTATE NY INTO THE LWR OH VLY MAY SERVE AS FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES VERY SLOWLY SEWD. MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY SHOULD FORM INVOF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN CNTRL VA AND SRN KY/MIDDLE TN....WHERE HEATING WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE GREATEST. MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW LIKELY WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN PA/NY AND NEW ENG. FARTHER S...SLIGHTLY GREATER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY COMPENSATE FOR WEAKER SHEAR TO SUPPORT MORE CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY IN THE ERN HALF OF TN...NRN/WRN NC AND CNTRL/ERN VA. DESPITE ORGANIZATION INTO CLUSTERS...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE RATHER DIURNAL...WITH WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET. ...NRN/CNTRL PLNS... SERIES OF IMPULSES DROPPING SE ACROSS THE NRN HI PLNS WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE ACROSS WRN/CNTRL SD AND NW NEB TODAY/TONIGHT. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50/...HEATING BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE BLACK HILLS BY MID AFTERNOON. MORE WIDELY SCATTERED/HIGHER-BASED STORMS MAY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN W INTO SRN MT/NRN WY. MODERATE /35+ KT/ DEEP WNWLY SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. THESE STORMS SHOULD MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE SMALL CLUSTERS THAT MOVE GENERALLY SE INTO THE WRN HALF OF NEB AND NW KS LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. ...SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY... WEAKLY SHEARED/MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS FOLLOWING MAX HEATING TODAY FROM PARTS OF TX INTO MS. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 06/23/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 23 16:17:48 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2006 12:17:48 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 231616 SWODY1 SPC AC 231614 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VALLEY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...MID ATLANTIC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND... LOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST AHEAD OF PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ME SSWWD INTO SRN NY AND CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WARM SECTOR REMAINS OVERLAID WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS...WHICH MAY COMPLICATE OVERALL SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON. ONE SUCH BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS ERN MD INTO CENTRAL VA IS FOCUSING A FEW STRONGER STORMS LATE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF N-S ORIENTED FEATURE SPREADING QUICKLY EWD TOWARDS THE CHESAPEAKE. THOUGH AIR MASS IS ALREADY UNSTABLE...MLCAPE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG INTO SERN VA...DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON AREA VWP/S AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL REMAIN QUITE MARGINAL WITH SFC-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 20 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT FROM NRN MD INTO PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND AS AFTERNOON HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. ACROSS THIS REGION...SHEAR WILL BE QUITE A BIT STRONGER UNDER 30-40 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR CLOSE TO 40 KT WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO...WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS ACTIVITY QUICKLY SPREADS TOWARDS THE COAST. ...TN VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STALLED FROM ERN OH INTO NRN KY TODAY WITH AIR MASS BECOMING MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE TO ITS SOUTH. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAIN IN PLACE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...THE MOST PROMINENT OF WHICH IS PUSHING QUICKLY EWD INTO NRN AL AND MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING. AS CAP WEAKENS AND HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE...STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS A LARGE AREA BY THE MID AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT AND LEAVE REGION WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAKLY-SHEARED REGIME. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STORMS MAY BE PRONE TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER DARK. ...NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SSELY SURFACE WINDS AND PERSISTENT LOWER TO MID 50F SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THREAT AGAIN TODAY FROM PORTIONS OF SERN MT ESEWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL SD/NEB. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS APPEAR TO BE SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS WRN SD AND SWRN MT THIS MORNING. TRAILING SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS SERN MT/NERN WY/WRN SD DURING PEAK HEATING WHERE MLCAPE WILL APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY 21Z. OTHER STORMS MAY INCREASE ACROSS WRN NEB DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZATION INTO SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOW ECHOES IS LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL WIND DAMAGE AND VERY LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO A MCS AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG NOSE OF 30 KT SSWLY LLJ ACROSS CENTRAL NEB/SD. LARGE HAIL MAY BECOME PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH POTENTIAL BOW ECHO MCS COULD SUSTAIN WIND DAMAGE THREAT WELL AFTER DARK. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 06/23/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 26 12:52:46 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 26 Jun 2006 08:52:46 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 261251 SWODY1 SPC AC 261250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2006 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR OH VLY INTO THE TN VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... ANOMALOUS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUING TO DROP S/SW INTO MID MS VLY UPR LOW...SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW SHOULD AMPLIFY SSEWD TODAY AS NRN STREAM SYSTEM NOW ENTERING WRN MANITOBA CONTINUES SE INTO WRN ONTARIO/NW MN. DEEP SLY FLOW BETWEEN MS VLY LOW AND STRONGER-THAN-NORMAL N ATLANTIC RIDGE SHOULD ACCELERATE DISTURBANCE NOW NEAR THE BAHAMAS N TOWARD THE CAROLINA CST TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. DESPITE AMPLIFIED PATTERN...SFC FEATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVANCE VERY SLOWLY W/NW ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN APLCNS...WHILE DIFFUSE COLD FRONT EXTENDING S/SW FROM WEAK LOW IN SE IL CONTINUES E/SEWD. WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MANITOBA IMPULSE...NOW LOCATED N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...EXPECTED TO SETTLE SE ACROSS MN AND THE ERN DAKOTAS LATER IN THE DAY. ...LWR OH/TN VLYS... A SETUP SIMILAR TO THAT WHICH AFFECTED THE MID MS VLY YESTERDAY WILL PREVAIL FROM SW MI INTO PARTS OF IL/IND/WRN KY/TN AND PERHAPS NRN MS TODAY AS UPR LOW SETTLES S/SE TOWARD REGION. SURFACE HEATING OF WEAKLY CONVERGENT AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF VORT LOBE MOVING E FROM MO SHOULD FOSTER STORM INITIATION INVOF WEAK LOW/FRONT OVER IL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD THEN EXPAND SWD AND EWD ALONG FRONT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY FORM IN POCKETS OF RE-DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IN WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS AS COOLING ALOFT SPREADS SEWD. RELATIVELY WEAK/VARIABLE WIND PROFILES SUGGEST PREDOMINANT STORM MODE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR...WITH WEAK ORGANIZATION INTO CLUSTERS/BANDS. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COULD PROMOTE SCATTERED HAIL AND STRONG WIND EVENTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...ERN DAKOTAS/NRN AND WRN MN... COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING SWD WITH AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WILL YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 1500 J PER KG/ WRN/NRN MN AND THE ERN DAKOTAS LATER TODAY. COUPLED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MANITOBA UPR SYSTEM...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS LIKELY WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT 30+ KT DEEP NNWLY SHEAR WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND. ASSUMING THE PRESENCE OF DISCRETE STORMS AND FAVORABLE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT FORECAST WIND PROFILES APPEAR SIMILAR TO THOSE THAT WERE PRESENT DURING ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO/FUNNEL EVENTS THAT HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY WITH SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUPS IN THE PAST WEEK. ...CAROLINAS TO MID ATLANTIC STATES... DEEP...VERY MOIST UNIDIRECTIONAL SLY FLOW WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR QUASI-STATIONARY BANDS OF BACK-BUILDING CONVECTION/STORMS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE CAROLINAS N INTO PA/NJ/NY. THE MOST SERIOUS THREAT POSED WILL BE FLOODING...BUT A LOW PROBABILITY WILL ALSO EXIST FOR TORNADOES. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST BOTH ALONG AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM S SCNTRL PA/CNTRL MD SSW INTO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT...AND ALONG WARM SECTOR CONVECTIVE BANDS DEVELOPING WITH SFC HEATING. WHILE ANY SUCH THREAT SHOULD BE MAINLY DIURNAL...EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF 925-850 MB FLOW THIS EVENING FROM VA NWD INTO MD/PA SUGGESTS THAT A LIMITED POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT. FARTHER S...THE THREAT MAY ALSO INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD ALONG THE SC/SRN NC CSTL PLN AS LOW LEVEL FLOW/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING BAHAMAS DISTURBANCE. ...ERN/SRN AZ/NM/SRN CO... WEAK N/NELY MID LEVEL FLOW ON FRINGE OF GRT BASIN UPR RIDGE WILL FAVOR S/SW PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM/ERN AZ LATER TODAY. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS AND THUS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY YIELD STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS THE GUST FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE LWR DESERTS. BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND EXPECTED STORM ORGANIZATION APPEAR TOO LIMITED ATTM TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK. ..CORFIDI/GRAMS.. 06/26/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 26 16:02:30 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 26 Jun 2006 12:02:30 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 261601 SWODY1 SPC AC 261559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1059 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2006 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IL/IND INTO WRN KY/NWRN TN... ...NRN PLAINS... WV IMAGERY INDICATES POTENT VORT CENTER/SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIES...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING INTO NERN ND/FAR NWRN MN. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S F ACROSS NRN MN INTO SERN ND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH MLCAPE FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE MID 70S. STEEP LOW AND MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES UNDER -16C TO -20C H5 TEMPERATURES SHOULD FOSTER A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY. LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEAR WEAK FOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH SFC-6 KM SHEAR FROM 20-25 KT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZATION INTO CLUSTERS/LINES SPREADING QUICKLY SSEWD INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. ...IL/IND INTO WRN TN... SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AGAIN FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR COLDER MID LEVEL AIR EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF IL/IND AND THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY. WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS LOCATED NEAR MTO THIS MORNING WITH BROAD SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXES EXTENDING NNWWD ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND SSWWD INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THESE FEATURES WILL LIKELY MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS AIR MASS BECOMES MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED BY THE MID AFTERNOON. PRIMARY REGION WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN STRONGER ASCENT AND COOLER AIR ALOFT/STEEPER LAPSE RATES WITHIN RIGHT EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF A LAND SPOUT TORNADO OR TWO WHERE LOW LEVEL CAPE AND SURFACE VORTICITY ARE MAXIMIZED NEAR SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. ...CAROLINAS TO MID ATLANTIC STATES... DEEP...VERY MOIST UNIDIRECTIONAL SLY FLOW WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR QUASI-STATIONARY BANDS OF BACK-BUILDING CONVECTION/STORMS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE CAROLINAS N INTO PA/NJ/NY. THE MOST SERIOUS THREAT POSED WILL BE FLOODING...BUT A LOW PROBABILITY WILL ALSO EXIST FOR TORNADOES. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST BOTH ALONG A WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM S SCNTRL PA/CNTRL MD SSWWD INTO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT...AND ALONG WARM SECTOR CONVECTIVE BANDS DEVELOPING WITH SFC HEATING. WHILE ANY SUCH THREAT SHOULD BE MAINLY DIURNAL...EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF 925-850 MB FLOW THIS EVENING FROM VA NWD INTO MD/PA SUGGESTS THAT A LIMITED POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT. FARTHER S...THE THREAT MAY ALSO INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD ALONG THE SC/SRN NC CSTL PLN AS LOW LEVEL FLOW/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING BAHAMAS DISTURBANCE. ...ERN/AZ/NM/SRN CO... WEAK N/NELY MID LEVEL FLOW ON FRINGE OF GRT BASIN UPR RIDGE WILL FAVOR S/SW PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM/ERN AZ LATER TODAY. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS AND THUS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY YIELD STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS THE GUST FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE LWR DESERTS. BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND EXPECTED STORM ORGANIZATION APPEAR TOO LIMITED ATTM TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK. ..EVANS/GUYER/CORFIDI.. 06/26/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 26 20:03:37 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 26 Jun 2006 16:03:37 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 262002 SWODY1 SPC AC 262001 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2006 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VLY AND NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LWR OH VLY AND MIDWEST... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VLY... STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SWD INTO SRN MANT AT MID-AFTN. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL MASS CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...NUMEROUS TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NWRN ONT...SERN MANT SWD INTO ERN ND AND NRN MN WITHIN STEEPENING LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. H5 TEMPERATURES AOB MINUS 15 DEG C ATOP MID 50S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR WAS NOT TERRIBLY STRONG...BUT MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES WAS SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. TSTMS COULD ALSO BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE INCREASING UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY FLOW AND EVOLVE INTO SMALL-SCALE BOWS GIVING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UNTIL SUNSET. ...LWR OH VLY/MIDWEST... UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE MAKING AN ADVERTISED TURN TO THE EAST PER AFTN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WAS ALSO ROTATING EWD ATOP A WARM AND MODESTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG. TSTMS HAVE BEEN FAVORING THE STRONGER CONVERGENCE/SFC TROUGH ALONG THE IL/IND BORDER...BUT OTHER STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING UPSTREAM BENEATH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES/ STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT. VERTICAL SHEAR WAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KTS AND ANY INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISKS. LANDSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE AFTER DARK. ...CAROLINAS TO MID ATLANTIC STATES... TROPICAL CONVEYOR BELT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A DEEP AND MOIST TROPOSPHERE ACROSS THE ERN STATES. SLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...WEAK CINH AND FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR QUASI-STATIONARY BANDS OF BACK-BUILDING TSTMS THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLD TSTM LINE SEGMENTS WILL BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE MEAN FLOW AND COULD BOW GIVING LOCAL DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL TO PARTS OF THE SERN COAST. BUT...THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW TORNADO PROBABILITY...MAINLY THIS AFTN. LATER TONIGHT...AS THE NRN BAHAMAS UPPER WAVE MIGRATES TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND COULD BRING A LATE NIGHT RISK OF ISOLD TORNADO TO PARTS OF THE SERN COAST. ...ERN/AZ/NM/SRN CO... WEAK N/NELY MID-LEVEL FLOW ON FRINGE OF GRT BASIN UPR RIDGE WILL FAVOR S/SW PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM/ERN AZ LATE THIS AFTN/EVE. PWATS HAVE INCREASED DURING THE PAST 24-HRS. THUS...TSTMS MAY THRIVE INTO THE VLYS...PRODUCING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..RACY.. 06/26/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 27 00:57:30 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 26 Jun 2006 20:57:30 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 270056 SWODY1 SPC AC 270054 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2006 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL/SRN ATLANTIC COAST... 00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS E OF THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF SUB-TROPICAL WAVE /CURRENTLY OFF THE NERN FL COAST/ WHICH WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY ABSORBED IN DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW REGIME IN PLACE OVER THE PIEDMONT AND COAST PLAIN. NAM/RUC GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NWD ALONG THE GA/SC COASTS TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER WAVE...MAINTAINING BACKED SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE CNTRL INTO SRN ATLANTIC COAST. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST /25-30 KTS THROUGH 0-6 KM AGL/...LOCALLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE LOW AND THE MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS INDICATE A LOW THREAT OF A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO...AND PERHAPS A FEW LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. ...OH VALLEY... OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOW A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE/HEIGHT SYSTEM OVER IL...WHICH IS MAINTAINING ACTIVE CONVECTION FROM VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER OVER CNTRL INTO SERN IL...EWD ALONG WEAK ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL IND INTO WRN KY. 00Z SOUNDINGS AND VWPS/PROFILES INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WEAK INVOF THIS LOW...HOWEVER MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES OF AROUND -14 C AT 500 MB ARE RESULTING IN WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN ONGOING STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME HAIL/LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ONGOING OVER CNTRL MN INTO WRN WI AND NERN SD. 00Z MSP SOUNDING INDICATES THAT RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH THE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARE LARGELY SUPPORTING THIS DEEP CONVECTION. ACTIVITY HAS TENDED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN. ISOLATED HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS THROUGH 02-03Z. ...AZ/NM... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING OVER NRN NM AND PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN AZ WITHIN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 00Z ABQ INDICATES SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO NWLY IN THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS WITH 30-35 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...WHICH IS SUPPORTING SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION IN SOME OF THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH 02-03Z INTO CNTRL NM...PRIOR TO STORMS WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OVER SRN AZ...VERTICAL SHEAR IS MUCH WEAKER THOUGH A CONSIDERABLY DEEPER BOUNDARY-LAYER AND DRY SUB CLOUD CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH A THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ..MEAD.. 06/27/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 28 06:01:20 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 28 Jun 2006 02:01:20 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 280601 SWODY1 SPC AC 280559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT WED JUN 28 2006 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY AND EWD INTO WRN PARTS OF NY/PA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS INTO SRN GA/NRN FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NRN CA/NWRN NV AND S-CNTRL ORE... ...SYNOPSIS... FULL LATITUDE TROUGH /ANCHORED BY VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY/ WILL ASSUME A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS SRN PORTION OF TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. WITHIN THIS PATTERN...SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION...THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY...WI AND WRN ONTARIO. IN THE W...IMPULSE JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST IS FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND PERIPHERY OF UPPER HIGH...AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADAS AND WRN GREAT BASIN NEAR THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER THE DELMARVA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT DEVELOPS NWD INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT OR COASTAL PLAIN TO THE FL PNHDL. FARTHER W...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE WRN/CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND LOWER/MID OH VALLEY...WHILE WWD EXTENSION OF PRIOR FRONTAL SURGE SLOWLY LIFTS NWD THROUGH NEB. ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY INTO NRN APPALACHIANS... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OWING TO NUMEROUS IMPULSES ROTATING TROUGH LARGER-SCALE TROUGH AND THE LACK OF ANY WELL-DEFINED BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. NONETHELESS...RESIDUAL DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-14 TO -16 C AT 500 MB/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK CAP...EXPECT ARCING LINES OR CLUSTERS OF TSTMS TO BECOMING INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY EWD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL NY/PA. WHILE DEEP SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG /25-35 KTS IN THE LOWEST 6 KM/...THE MODERATELY STRONG LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ...NRN CA/NWRN NV/S-CNTRL ORE... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH SBCAPES APPROACHING 500-1500 J/KG. SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OWING TO RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD CONDITIONS AND RESULTING DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. ...COASTAL CAROLINAS INTO SRN GA/NRN FL... RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F/ COUPLED WITH STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING FRONT WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1500-2500 J/KG. TSTMS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BY MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR MERGING COLD POOLS AND PERHAPS A MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ...NEB... KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE TSTMS ALONG RETREATING BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER DEEP CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED OWING TO THE BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EWD. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...THE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ISSUANCE OF A CATEGORICAL RISK. ..MEAD/JEWELL.. 06/28/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 28 12:59:52 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 28 Jun 2006 08:59:52 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 281258 SWODY1 SPC AC 281256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT WED JUN 28 2006 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPR GRT LKS INTO THE OH VLY/CNTRL APLCNS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/NRN SIERRA INTO SRN ORE/WRN NV... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE S ATLANTIC CST... ...SYNOPSIS... LITTLE CHANGE IN SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN RECENT DAYS...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING S/SE AROUND WRN AND SRN SIDES OF GRT LKS/OH VLY TROUGH. THOSE THIS MORNING INCLUDING APPARENT IMPULSES NOW OVER IL/WRN KY...NE WI...NRN MN AND WRN SD. IN THE WEST...UPR VORT NOW NEAR PT CONCEPTION SHOULD CONTINUE NW AND LATER NE AROUND FRINGE OF GRT BASIN RIDGE..REACHING SE ORE EARLY THURSDAY. ...UPR GRT LKS INTO OH VLY/CNTRL APLCNS... UNUSUALLY STRONG/COOL UPR TROUGH LIKELY WILL YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE GRT LKS/OH VLY AND APLCNS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN WEAK...BUT PERHAPS STRONGEST INVOF WEAK COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NRN LWR MI SW INTO NRN MO. BUT COUPLED WITH SURFACE HEATING... REGIONAL DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S...COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODEST DEEP SHEAR...SETUP SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT SHORT BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOST CONCENTRATED INVOF PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED UPR IMPULSES...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING HAIL. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF OH VLY IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT CONTINUED EWD DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS INTO THE CNTRL APLCNS BY THIS EVENING. ...NRN CA/SRN ORE/WRN NV... STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM COASTAL CA VORT SHOULD SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FROM THE NRN SIERRA NWD INTO PARTS OF ORE AND NV. INVERTED-VEE BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT AND STRENGTHENING MEAN FLOW SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING. ...S ATLANTIC CST... AN AXIS OF RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F/ WILL PERSIST ALONG THE S ATLANTIC CST IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SUBTROPICAL LOW. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...REGION MAY BE PERIPHERALLY AFFECTED BY AREA OF UPR DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH OH VLY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COUPLED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE PULSE STORMS. MERGING COLD POOLS MAY YIELD A DAMAGING WIND THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...CNTRL PLNS TO LWR MO VLY... A CHANCE WILL EXIST FOR HIGH-BASED MICROBURST-PRODUCING STORMS ALONG SEGMENT OF LEE TROUGH OVER ERN NEB/NE CO/NW KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER E...WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA...ALONG AND N OF WRN END OF SAME COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE OH VLY. WHILE THIS SETUP MAY YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED GIVEN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE WRN RIDGE. SHOULD STORMS FORM...A THREAT WILL EXIST FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TO WARRANT UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ATTM. ..CORFIDI.. 06/28/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 28 16:37:39 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 28 Jun 2006 12:37:39 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 281637 SWODY1 SPC AC 281635 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT WED JUN 28 2006 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN SIERRA/NRN CA INTO SRN ORE/WRN NV... ...CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... REFERENCE WW 558 AND ACCOMPANYING SWOMCDS FOR THE LATEST ON LOWER MI AND VICINITY TODAY. POTENT UPPER LOW WITH ASSOCIATED -20C MID LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL CONTINUE FOCUSING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE/SEVERITY AHEAD OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY. APPEARS MORE CONCENTRATED COVERAGE OF SEVERE WILL OCCUR ACROSS LOWER MI AND INTO PARTS OF NRN IND/NWRN OH...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN QUITE WEAK...THOUGH SOME ORGANIZATION INTO LINES/CLUSTERS MAY OCCUR GIVEN DEEP/FOCUSED ASCENT. THEREFORE...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. FARTHER SOUTH INTO IL/IND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/LINES AND POSSIBLY A SUPERCELL OR TWO AS MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION. EXPECT LARGE RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW ADVANCING SSEWD ACROSS NRN IL/NRN MO. THOUGH LOW LEVEL FOCUS/CONVERGENCE ACROSS WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN WEAK...SEVERAL CLUSTERS/LINES OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS CAP WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGER CLUSTERS/CORES WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...SOUTHEAST... WEAKLY ORGANIZED STORMS WILL TEND TO CLUSTER WITHIN 20-25 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF NRN FL/SRN GA INTO PORTIONS OF ERN SC/SERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. THIS SUGGESTS DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION... WITH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING AFTER DARK. ...NRN CA/SRN ORE/WRN NV... STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM COASTAL CA VORT SHOULD SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FROM THE NRN SIERRA NWD INTO PARTS OF ORE AND NV. INVERTED-VEE BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT AND STRENGTHENING MEAN FLOW SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING. ...CNTRL PLNS TO LWR MO VLY... THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT NOW EXTENDING NW-SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM ERN WY INTO SERN NEB/NERN KS. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL SUSTAIN A RISK FOR HIGH-BASED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL...ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION OF WRN NEB/FAR NERN CO. FARTHER E...WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA...ALONG AND N OF WRN END OF SAME COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE OH VLY. WHILE THIS SETUP MAY YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED GIVEN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE WRN RIDGE. SHOULD STORMS FORM...A THREAT WILL EXIST FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TO WARRANT UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ATTM. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 06/28/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 6 06:06:28 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 06 Jun 2006 02:06:28 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 060604 SWODY1 SPC AC 060602 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ON TUE. ERN STATES UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD TO THE COAST AS THE LARGE HIGH BUILDS NEWD THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY EARLY TUE WILL TURN SEWD INTO THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION/UPPER MIDWEST BY TUE NIGHT. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SPEED MAX OFF THE ORE COAST WILL SHEAR NEWD INTO THE PAC NW. AT THE SURFACE...DIFFUSE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AS TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE LWR MO VLY AND SWWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. ...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS... A COUPLE OF MCS/S ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...ONE OVER THE WRN GRTLKS REGION AND ANOTHER OVER PARTS OF ERN OK/WRN AR. ISOLD LARGE HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS MIGHT OCCUR EARLY TUE MORNING...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE AS THE LLJ WEAKENS AND THE CONVECTION MOVES EWD INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. IN WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION...THE AIR MASS SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER AS LOW-MID 60S DEW POINTS ARE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT. STRONGEST HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG WRN EXTENTS OF THE FRONT IN THE SRN PLAINS. BUT...MODEST HEATING AND STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM INITIATION OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VLY EARLY TUE AFTN. ACTIVITY SHOULD BACKBUILD SWWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS ERN IA...NRN/CNTRL MO AND POSSIBLY SERN KS DURING THE LATE AFTN. NWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS OF 30-40 KT ACROSS THIS REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY FROM NRN/CNTRL MO NEWD INTO SRN WI. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO SPREAD EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY LATER AT NIGHT. ...SRN PLAINS... CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE SWD INTO AT LEAST SRN OK AND THE TX S PLAINS BY EARLY TUE AFTN. ELY FLOW N OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN LOW TO MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE AND ANTICIPATED SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD TSTM INITIATION LATE IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK INTO NWRN TX/TX S PLAINS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ISOLD SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR. PRIMARY RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NWWD INTO PARTS OF NERN NM...ERN CO AND SERN WY AS SELY UPSLOPE FLOW BECOMES ENHANCED N OF THE SRN PLAINS FRONT TUE AFTN. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FAVOR HIGH-BASED STORMS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE AFTN. GIVEN WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...PULSE MULTICELL STORM STRUCTURES ARE EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL. ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP NEWD ONTO THE ADJACENT WY/WRN NEB/WRN KS PLAINS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED AS A SELY LLJ BECOMES ENHANCED BY A MID-LEVEL JETSTREAK OVER CANADA. ...SRN PLATEAU... LOW/MID-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE AZ DESERTS...AS COLLAPSING MCS/S ACROSS SONORA STATE SEND OUTFLOWS NWWD LATE MON INTO TUE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PLATEAU REGION. SELY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INCREASE ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF THE H7 RIDGE AND FAVOR A PROPAGATION OF STORMS INTO THE LWR DESERTS TUE EVENING WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..RACY/TAYLOR.. 06/06/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 6 12:47:50 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 06 Jun 2006 08:47:50 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 061245 SWODY1 SPC AC 061243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPR MS VLY TO THE OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL/SRN RCKYS AND ADJACENT HI PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... SWRN STATES RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD NE ACROSS THE RCKYS THIS PERIOD IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS. DEEP UPR LOW SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY E ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...MAINTAINING DEEP NLY COMPONENT TO FLOW OVER THE MS VLY/ERN PLNS. AT THE SURFACE...DIFFUSE LOW WILL EDGE SLOWLY E INTO WRN ONTARIO AS TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY E/SE ACROSS THE UPR MS/LWR MO VLYS...AND S ACROSS THE SRN PLNS. ...UPR MS VLY TO OZARKS... COLD FRONT EXTENDING S AND SW FROM ONTARIO LOW EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE UPR MS VLY TO THE OZARKS AND ERN PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS. MODERATE /30-40 KT/ WNW TO NNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO BOUNDARY WILL SUPPLY SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED ACTIVITY/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. COLDER AIR ALOFT AND DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW SUGGEST THAT THE DEVELOPMENT WILL FIRST OCCUR OVER UPR MI/WI. LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION IN WAKE OF ON-GOING ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN FOSTER INITIATION SWD ACROSS ERN IA/NW IL AND NRN MO. HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. DEPENDING ON STORM MODE...DEGREE OF DEEP DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT SETUP MAY... HOWEVER...ALSO BECOME MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES IN ERN IA/SW WI/NW IL. FARTHER S ALONG FRONT...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER IN WAKE OF APPARENT MCV NOW OVER NE OK. THE MCV SHOULD CONTINUE SE INTO AR AS AMPLIFYING RIDGE EDGES E INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLNS. SURFACE HEATING WILL...HOWEVER...CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /SBCAPE AOA 2500 J PER KG/ IN MOIST AXIS ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER PARTS OF OK/SE KS AND THE WRN OZARKS. SHOULD FRONTAL UPLIFT BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CAP...RESULTING STORMS COULD FORM A SMALL CLUSTER YIELDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND. ...CNTRL/SRN RCKYS AND ADJACENT HI PLNS... AS COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE SRN PLNS...AXIS OF MOIST POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL SPREAD W TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CNTRL RCKYS. COUPLED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT...STORMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY SSE TO THE WRN EDGE OF THE HI PLNS. WEAK DEEP SHEAR NEAR UPR RIDGE AXIS SHOULD FAVOR PULSE/MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND/HAIL. FARTHER S...WEAKENING FRONT AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW MAY ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED HIGH-BASED STORMS WITH HIGH WIND POTENTIAL IN THE IN ERN NM AND THE TX S PLNS. ...SRN PLATEAU... MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NRN SONORA MCS WILL SPREAD NW ACROSS MUCH OF AZ AND WRN PARTS OF THE SRN PLATEAU TODAY AS LOW LEVEL STORM OUTFLOW REACHES THE AZ DESERTS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASED DIURNAL STORM COVERAGE OVER THE REGION. MODERATE SELY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR NWD PROPAGATION AND POSSIBLE UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OF NRN MEXICAN MOUNTAIN STORMS INTO THE LWR DESERTS OF AZ THIS EVENING...WHERE RESULTING CLUSTER COULD YIELD ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 06/06/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 6 16:29:59 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 06 Jun 2006 12:29:59 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 061627 SWODY1 SPC AC 061626 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN GREAT LAKES SWD TO ERN PORTIONS OF SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHERN AZ... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF ERN CO/NERN NM... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE WRN RIDGE BUILDS NWD INTO NRN ROCKIES WITH CENTER OF CIRCULATION REMAINING OVER SRN CO. COLD UPPER LOW CAROLINA COAST MOVES SLOWLY EWD WHILE A WEAK LOW OFF BAJA CONTINUES TO DRIFT NNWWD TO SW OF SAN BY WED AM. S/WV TROUGH INITIALLY MN CONTINUES EWD ACROSS WRN LAKES WHILE ERN PAC S/W TROUGH APPROACHES PAC NW LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A FRONTAL SYSTEM FOLLOWED BY MUCH DRIER AIR EXTENDS FROM NEAR MN/WI BORDER SWWD INTO CENTRAL KS. A PRONOUNCED BUT RELATIVELY NARROW N/S MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS FROM OK NNEWD INTO WRN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF FRONT. OVERNIGHT ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS WORKED INTO SRN AZ AS UNDER A MDT SELY WIND REGIME. ...WRN GREAT LAKES SWD THRU LOWER MO VALLEY INTO ERN PORTION SRN PLAINS... LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS FORECASTED TO WEAKEN MUCH OF THIS REGION DURING AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. HOWEVER FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY MAX HEATING FROM WI SWD INTO MO. WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO AOA 2000 J/K G AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM THRU THE 80S... ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KT...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE BY MID AFTERNOON. MODE SHOULD BE PRIMARILY MULTICELL GIVEN WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR...HOWEVER WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED WET MICRO BURST WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL. WELL DEFINED MCV NERN OK MOVING SWD AROUND 25KT AND WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD TAP INTO BOUNDARY LAYER BY MID AFTERNOON SERN OK. WITH MLCAPES ABOVE 2000 J/KG THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASED SEVERE THREAT SWD INTO NERN TX/NWRN LA PRIOR TO WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET. ...SRN AZ... MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED SRN HALF OF AZ OVERNIGHT AS SELY FLOW REGIME IS WELL ESTABLISHED TO SW OF CO UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. STEEP LAPSE RATES REMAIN AND WITH STRONG HEATING MLCAPES WILL CLIMB BY MIDAFTERNOON TO AOA 1000 J/KG S OF CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WITH HIGH BASED CONVECTION...DOWNDRAFT CAPES ABOVE 1500 J/KG ARE INDICATED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE BY MID AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER TERRAIN SRN AZ. AND THEN WITH 30-35 KT SELY 500MB FLOW...STORMS WILL QUICKLY PROPAGATE INTO ADJACENT DESERT VALLEYS. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED HABOOB INTO SCENTRAL DESERTS VALLEYS BY THIS EVENING. ...ESLOPES CENTRAL ROCKIES... ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS UPPER HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD...THE LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW IS MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WWD TO FRONT RANGE. STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN A DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG AND JUST E OF FRONT RANGE BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH PRIMARILY A PULSE SEVERE THREAT DEVELOPING. HIGH BASED STORMS WILL INCLUDE NOT ONLY LARGE HAIL BUT A MICRO BURST THREAT UNTIL SUNSET. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY CLOSE TO HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH IN ERN CO AND NERN NM WITH THE VERY WEAK STEERING WINDS. ..HALES/GUYER.. 06/06/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 6 19:59:14 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 06 Jun 2006 15:59:14 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 061957 SWODY1 SPC AC 061955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THAT ARKLATEX REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN AZ... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF CO AND NRN NM... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NC AND NERN SC... ...WRN GREAT LAKES INTO LOWER MO VALLEY... UPPER VORTICITY MAX APPROACHING WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD TOWARD NRN LAKE MI/NRN LOWER MI BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM EXTREME WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SWD INTO WRN WI/ERN IA AND NWRN MO IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD/SEWD THROUGH TONIGHT. PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BANDS FROM WI AND WRN LOWER MI SWD INTO CENTRAL IL HAS LIMITED HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR A NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE FRONT. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM NWRN WI INTO ERN IA...AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY FROM WI INTO NRN IL...MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. GREATER INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FROM ERN IA SWWD INTO NWRN MO AND SOUTH CENTRAL/ERN KS WHERE MLCAPE RANGES TO 2500 J/KG. CAP APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING FROM IA INTO EXTREME NERN KS WHERE STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. ...ERN OK/WRN AR/NERN TX/NWRN LA... MCV OVER EXTREME ERN OK IS CONTINUING TO MOVE SEWD THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FROM ERN OK SWD INTO ERN TX...AND SATELLITE/RADAR/LIGHTNING DATA HAVE INDICATED MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MCV. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL NWLY WINDS HAVE BEEN CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCV...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THIS REGION. ...SRN AZ... ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A DEEP WELL-MIXED LAYER HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SRN AZ. LTG DATA INDICATE A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH OF FHU INTO EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL AZ AND ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SERN AZ. 25-35 KT SELY MID LEVEL WINDS NOTED ON 12Z TUS SOUNDING AND LATEST EMX VAD PROFILE INDICATE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND PERMIT STORMS TO SPREAD NWWD WITH TIME. DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...AND WE WILL BE MONITORING THIS AREA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE ORGANIZED MCS DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...FRONT RANGE FROM NORTH CENTRAL CO INTO NRN NM... UPSLOPE FLOW OVER NERN NM AND SERN CO COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A DEEP WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CENTRAL NM AND SOUTH CENTRAL CO. ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE WEAK WITHIN UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PULSE SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ...ERN NC INTO NERN SC... STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN COLD CORE /-19C AT 500 MB/ OF UPPER LOW LOCATED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE GENERALLY SWD THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING. ..WEISS.. 06/06/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 7 01:06:16 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 06 Jun 2006 21:06:16 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 070103 SWODY1 SPC AC 070101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN IL AND SERN WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SABINE VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SCNTRL AZ DESERTS... ...UPPER MIDWEST... TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ACROSS WI HAVE BEEN THRIVING IN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION. THE STORMS ARE BEING FED BY PARCELS EMANATING FROM AN UPSTREAM STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MID-EVENING AS THEY MOVE ESEWD TO LAKE MI AND FAR NRN IL. VAD WIND PROFILE FROM MKX EXHIBITED A MODEST TURNING IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THUS...A FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE THEY DIMINISH. ...MID-MS VLY AND OZARKS... ISOLD TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED UPSTREAM ACROSS SRN IA WERE DROPPING SWD INTO NRN MO THIS EVE. THE STORMS ARE LIKELY PEAKING IN INTENSITY AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THEY HEAD INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE OZARKS AND ECNTRL MO LATER THIS EVE. UNTIL THEN...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. ...SABINE RVR AREA... MCV ROTATING SWD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX COUPLED WITH STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WERE LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EVOLVING TSTM CLUSTER...NOW MOVING INTO NWRN LA. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT A COLD POOL WAS STRENGTHENING. DEEP NWLY FLOW REGIME AOA 45 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE THE OUTFLOW TO ACCELERATE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...SOME SIGNIFICANT...THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE VLY. ...SCNTRL/SWRN AZ DESERTS... A LONG-LIVED SMALL TSTM CLUSTER CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NWWD ACROSS AREAS NEAR/S OF PHX WITH ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY. PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS THROUGH MID-EVENING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SCNTRL AZ DESERTS. WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH SEASONABLY MOIST COLUMN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS/DUST STORMS. HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... ELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WAS ENHANCING CONVERGENCE VCNTY THE RATON PASS NWD TO ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN SERN CO VCNTY WALSENBURG AND TRINIDAD. GIVEN HOT BOUNDARY LAYER AND MARGINAL MOISTURE A FEW HIGH BASED TSTMS HAVE FORMED THAT MAY GIVE ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH MID-EVENING. BUT...WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BENEATH DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED STORMS. ..RACY.. 06/07/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 7 05:50:22 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 07 Jun 2006 01:50:22 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 070548 SWODY1 SPC AC 070546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 AM CDT WED JUN 07 2006 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST SWD INTO THE TN VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EWD TO THE NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ON WED. THE ERN MEAN TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES SEWD TOWARD THE OH VLY. THE DOWNSTREAM CAROLINAS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. IN THE WEST...A LARGE UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS AS A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES TOWARD THE PAC NW COAST. IN THE LWR LVLS...A WEAK LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRTLKS UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SEWD INTO OH WITH ANOTHER SPOT LOW LIKELY FORMING UPSTREAM ACROSS SRN IND. MEANWHILE...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD REACHING A WRN OH/WRN TN/CNTRL TX LINE DURING WED EVE. A SECOND FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM ONT AND LKSUP WWD ACROSS SD INTO A LOW OVER NRN ID AREA...AND A PAC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF WA/ORE/ID/WRN MT DURING THE PD. ...MIDWEST SWD TO THE TN VLY... A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GRTLKS AND OH VLY REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS MAY RETARD STRONG INSOLATION AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION DOWNSTREAM DURING PEAK HEATING. BUT...SIMILAR TO TUE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A ZONE OF AIR MASS RECOVERY ALONG/IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT FROM IND SWWD INTO WRN TN BY TUE AFTN. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL GRTLKS EARLY IN THE DAY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE SPREADS SEWD. OTHER TSTMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AXIS LATER IN THE AFTN FROM PARTS OF IND...SERN IL AND FAR W KY. INCREASING NWLY FLOW BENEATH THE BASE OF THE UPPER IMPULSE WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR AND SUBSEQUENT STORM ORGANIZATION WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. BUT...TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN IND...WRN KY AND PARTS OF MIDDLE TN WHERE WSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES COINCIDENT WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP A SUFFICIENT COLD POOL DURING THE EVENING TO SUSTAIN A SEVERE THREAT INTO SCNTRL KY AND MIDDLE TN UNTIL LATE EVENING. BUT...STRENGTH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY FOLLOW THE DIURNAL CURVE WITH A DECREASING SEVERE THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS... AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL IN THE NWRN STATES...ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TEND TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ADVECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WWD AND BENEATH THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...ENHANCING THE INSTABILITY. UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS TRAVERSING THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AID IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVE FROM SRN MT/NRN WY EWD INTO THE BLACK HILLS AND NWRN NEB. THE ESELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ONE OR MORE MCS/S ARE LIKELY TO EVOLVE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ MAX AND TO THE N OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NRN NEB AND WRN/CNTRL SD. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL MOVE INLAND ON WED. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED NWD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH. THIS INCREASE IN PW AND PRESENCE OF PRE-EXISTING STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1700 J/KG WED AFTN. AS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SPREAD ATOP THIS INSTABILITY AXIS...TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND VCNTY THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER ERN ORE/EXTREME SERN WA NEWD INTO NRN/CNTRL ID AND WRN MT BY WED MID-AFTN. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. ...SRN PLATEAU... PW VALUES CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SWRN STATES OWING TO ACTIVE CONVECTION ON TUE AND DEEP SLY FLOW. THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL SPREAD NWWD INTO THE GRT BASIN ON WED AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NV AND UT WED AFTN. EARLY DAY CLOUDS MAY DELAY CONVECTION ACROSS SERN AZ UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. ENHANCED TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SRN CO AND THE UPPER LOW OVER BAJA NORTE WILL LIKELY ENCOURAGE STORMS TO QUICKLY PROPAGATE NWWD. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS WILL INCREASE THE RISKS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY HAIL. ...SRN MS VLY... REMNANT MCV WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE SRN LA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN WED. IF CLOUD DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS DOES NOT CONTAMINATE THE HEATING PROCESS...THERE WILL BE A LOW RISK OF ORGANIZED TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE EVE. ..RACY/GRAMS.. 06/07/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 9 05:57:46 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 01:57:46 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 090555 SWODY1 SPC AC 090554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN ID AND VICINITY... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE PLAINS AND FLATTENS THE PERSISTENT RIDGE. MEANWHILE...TROUGHS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS BOTH THE NWRN AND NERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE...ERN U.S. COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE CAROLINA COASTLINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHILE A SECOND BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTLES SWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY... STRONG CAPPING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BENEATH LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ESEWD INTO ERN NEB DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP INVOF THE MID MO VALLEY AS CAP WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN NELY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE/ERN WY N OF SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE. WITH BELT OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW ACROSS NEB/IA...ANY STORMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME ORGANIZED/SEVERE -- ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION -- MAINLY N AND E OF LOW ACROSS SRN SD/IA/SRN MN -- AS LOW-LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION INCREASE. THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME...POTENTIAL FOR HAIL MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING. ...SRN ID AND ADJACENT AREAS... WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AS AIRMASS BECOMES MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. THOUGH A FEW STRONGER/PULSE-TYPE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGE AREA...SOMEWHAT GREATER SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN ID AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE SURROUNDING STATES. ACROSS THIS REGION...STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AROUND SRN PORTION OF UPPER TROUGH SHOULD YIELD SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS -- ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ..GOSS.. 06/09/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 9 12:33:53 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 08:33:53 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 091230 SWODY1 SPC AC 091227 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 AM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NRN/MID MS RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS IA... SURFACE LOW OVER SD EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ESEWD THROUGH THE DAY ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER INTO THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS LOW MOVES ESEWD...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SSWWD INTO ERN WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE. CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN GREATEST NEAR THE LOW CENTER WHERE MODELS MAINTAIN 30-35 KT SSWLY LLJ THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...CAPPING WILL INHIBIT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION FOR MOST OF THE DAY. CONVERGENCE AND ROBUST HEATING MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT/LOW CENTER FROM NERN NEB INTO WRN IA LATE TODAY...WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 50 KT ACROSS THIS REGION WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HIGH-BASED WITH 30 DEGREE T-TD SPREADS MITIGATING TORNADO THREAT...THOUGH DISCRETE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND BUILD INTO A MCS THROUGH THE EVENING WITHIN EXIT REGION OF LLJ ALONG AND NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/BECOMES CAPPED WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...ORIENTATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY RELATIVE TO WNWLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY MAINTAIN A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WELL AFTER DARK SEWD ACROSS IA AND POSSIBLY NERN MO/NWRN IL. FARTHER WEST...UPSLOPE FLOW AND SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 50F SHOULD PREVAIL INTO ERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE AND SWRN SD LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPARENT ON WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING OVER UT SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NEAR PEAK HEATING. INCREASING ASCENT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL WY/NRN CO AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS STRONGER CELLS OVERSPREAD THE HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. OTHER ISOLATED...HIGH-BASED DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR DUE TO STRONG MIXING/HEATING ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FROM WRN KS INTO CENTRAL NEB. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING SHEAR ALONG PERIPHERY OF STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL SUSTAIN A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY. APPEARS STORMS WILL STRENGTHEN BY THE MID AFTERNOON OVER A LARGE PART OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WITHIN FAVORABLE DEEP ASCENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT WHICH WILL SUPPORT STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION... INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS...INCREASING THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. ...PA ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... COLD MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ATOP 50-60F SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD SUPPORT AN AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION TODAY. STRONGER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND NEAR SEVERE LEVELS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY WEAKENING QUICKLY AFTER DARK. ..EVANS/GRAMS.. 06/09/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 9 16:31:14 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 12:31:14 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 091628 SWODY1 SPC AC 091627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM ERN WY EWD TO IA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NE NV...NW UT...SRN ID.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN PA.... ...CENTRAL PLAINS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT... A REMNANT LEE CYCLONE OVER N CENTRAL NEB THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TOWARD SE NEB BY LATE TONIGHT...ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE MO RIVER. MORNING SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES REVEAL A CONTINUATION OF THE RELATIVELY POOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH A SKIN LAYER 60-64 F DEWPOINTS IN A NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS MO/ERN KS. 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE MINIMIZED FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF 95-100 F IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO DECREASE INTO THE 40S AND 50S IN AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES GET THIS WARM AND DEEP MIXING OCCURS. THE POOR MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG/ IN THE DEEPLY MIXED WARM SECTOR...AND SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY IN AREAS N OF THE SURFACE FRONT THAT ARE SHELTERED FROM DEEP MIXING /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG/. THE MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT IN EXTREME NE NEB/SE SD WHERE INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE INITIAL CONVECTION...AND STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO AN MCS TONIGHT ACROSS IA IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG WAA N OF THE SURFACE FRONT. A TORNADO COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH THE INITIAL STORMS...BUT THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS SHOULD BE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FARTHER W...THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF ERN WY...IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING ENEWD FROM SW WY AND WRN CO. CONVECTION FORMING IN THIS AREA MAY PERSIST AND MOVE E WITHIN THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AXIS TO THE N OF THE SFC FRONT...INTO WRN AND NRN NEB. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT EWD SLOWLY OVER WA...WHILE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE EWD FROM ORE TOWARD WRN ID...AND NEWD FROM NV TOWARD NW UT AND SRN ID. RELATIVELY MOIST PROFILES IN 12Z SOUNDINGS AND ONGOING CONVECTION SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. STILL...CLOUD BREAKS ACROSS SRN/SERN ID MAY ALLOW SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION FOR A ISOLATED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...CENTRAL/ERN PA AREA THIS AFTERNOON... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ACROSS CENTRAL PA AS OF MIDDAY. THIS AREA IS DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER WRN PA...WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK ASCENT WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 06/09/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 9 20:11:45 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 16:11:45 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 092005 SWODY1 SPC AC 092004 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN PA AND NJ... ...CENTRAL PLAINS REGION... A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED N CENTRAL NEB EAST OF ANW AT 19Z AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SERN NEB BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SLOWLY SWD TO THE WEST OF THE LOW. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS MEAGER...WITH DEEPER GULF MOISTURE RESTRICTED OFF THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT MLCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THOUGH LESS MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND ERN WY AS LARGE SCALE FORCING HAS INCREASED IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS SRN WY. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT...REFERENCE WW 454. CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN NE NEB/SE SD/NWRN IA/SWRN MN WHERE LIFT WILL BE ACCENTUATED BY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVER SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE FORECAST OF STRONG VEERING WIND PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE INITIAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...TORNADO PROBABILITIES APPEAR LOW DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE STORM BASES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD AID THE STORMS EVOLVING INTO AN MCS TONIGHT...AND THEN SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS IA AND INTO IL AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS. THE MAIN THREAT INITIALLY MAY BE HAIL...BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE OF A WIND THREAT AS THE OUTFLOWS CONSOLIDATE INTO A STRONG COLD POOL. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WA...WHILE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE MOVING NEWD INTO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT FROM NV NEWD INTO WRN MT. MOIST VERTICAL PROFILES WERE RESULTING IN MUCAPES FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AND WHEN COMBINED WITH 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...REFERENCE WW 453 AND 455. THESE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARD MID EVENING AS STORM OUTFLOWS STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ...SERN PA AND NJ... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED WITH THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT. WEAK ASCENT WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL 00Z...WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT IN A FEW STORMS. ...ERN NM NEWD INTO ERN CO AND WRN KS... VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO NEAR 550 MB. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MIX PARCELS TO LFC AND RESULT IN HIGH BASED CONVECTION. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK... THE 45-55F SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..IMY.. 06/09/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 10 01:03:28 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 09 Jun 2006 21:03:28 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 100100 SWODY1 SPC AC 100059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN UT/SERN ID EWD INTO SWRN MN/IA/PARTS OF NWRN IL... ...ERN WY/SRN SD/NEB INTO IA AND VICINITY... POST-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN SD AND INTO ERN WY/THE NEB PANHANDLE...WHERE NELY UPSLOPE FLOW IS SUPPORTING PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITHIN SUFFICIENTLY-UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH DEGREE OF SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS...POST-FRONT/ELEVATED NATURE OF CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT HAIL SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT -- PARTICULARLY AFTER DARK. FURTHER E...STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NERN NEB AND INTO FAR SERN SD/NWRN IA...WHERE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THOUGH GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN N OF SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE -- I.E. ACROSS NERN NEB...SERN SD...AND THE NERN HALF OF IA. AGAIN -- GIVEN MAINLY ELEVATED NATURE OF CONVECTION...EXPECT MAIN THREAT TO BE HAIL...THOUGH LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LESS ELEVATED STORMS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE FRONT. ...NRN UT/SERN ID/PARTS OF MT... THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED VORT MAX CENTERED OVER NRN UT ATTM. COMBINATION OF MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SUGGESTS THAT STRONG/LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THOUGH THREAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT TO LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN WY AND VICINITY. ..GOSS.. 06/10/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 10 06:12:12 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2006 02:12:12 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 100609 SWODY1 SPC AC 100607 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0107 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS ESEWD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE NERN U.S. THIS PERIOD...WHILE MODERATELY-FAST BELT OF WNWLY/ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ESEWD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A GENERALLY W-E BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE SWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WHILE BECOMING ALIGNED ROUGHLY N-S ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY/ERN CO. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE -- ALONG SRN FRINGE OF FASTER FLOW ALOFT -- WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SEVERE CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...SERN MT SEWD INTO WRN KS... COMPLEX SERIES OF UPPER SHORT-WAVE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EWD WITHIN BELT OF RELATIVELY FAST WLY/WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. A RELATIVELY SUBSTANTIAL FEATURE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS BY MIDDAY...AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WILL BE UNDERWAY. THOUGH CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INVOF THIS FEATURE...MODELS SUGGEST EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SWRN SD/ERN WY/WRN NEB AS COMBINATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY AND UPSLOPE FLOW JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF FRONT COMBINE TO PROVIDE A ZONE OF FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THOUGH MODELS DIFFER IN DETAILS OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD...ALL INDICATE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. ALONG WITH THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE GIVEN RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND SUBSTANTIAL VEERING IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD -- PARTICULARLY JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP/SPREAD SEWD...PERHAPS EVOLVING INTO ONE OR MORE MCS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKEWISE SPREAD SEWD INTO KS/SRN NEB...PERHAPS INTO THE MID MO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...CENTRAL AND NRN MO ESEWD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO SHARPEN BAROCLINIC ZONE INVOF THE OH VALLEY. THOUGH MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE BOUNDARY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL AND NRN MO ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY INTO PARTS OF IL/SRN INDIANA AND INTO KY. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION...MODERATELY-STRONG WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS -- WITH A FEW BOWING-TYPE CLUSTERS LIKELY. ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...FAIRLY RAPID ESEWD STORM MOTION ANTICIPATED WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A RELATIVELY ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO EXIST FROM NRN AND CENTRAL MO ESEWD ACROSS SRN IL INTO SWRN INDIANA AND PARTS OF WRN KY. SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A LOW-END THREAT POSSIBLY MOVING E OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO VA/THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 06/10/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 10 12:23:21 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2006 08:23:21 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 101220 SWODY1 SPC AC 101218 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0718 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 VALID 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN\CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... MODELS IN STRONG AGREEMENT IN INCREASING STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF ERN WY AND FAR SERN MT DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN ID. SURFACE LOW OVER N-CENTRAL WY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE WY/MT/SD BORDER REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LEE TROUGH TRAILING SWD ACROSS FAR ERN WY. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S ATTM...THOUGH MIXING DUE TO STRONG HEATING MAY DROP THESE VALUES INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY / MLCAPE AROUND 1500 JKG-1 / WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO ERN WY WITH LITTLE OR NO INHIBITION. THEREFORE...INCREASED DEEP ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON OVER ERN WY/SERN MT. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES WITH 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND 0-1 K SRH IN EXCESS OF 100 M2/S2...ESPECIALLY IN FAR E-CENTRAL WY/WRN NEB PANHANDLE. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE LINES/CLUSTERS WITH STRONG TO SEVERE MCS MOVING ESEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE OH/CUMBERLAND RIVER VALLEYS... SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAINED STALLED ACROSS THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY INTO ERN KY TODAY...WITH WEAK LOW CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING FRONT SAGGING SWD INTO NERN KS/NWRN MO. HEATING AND CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS NEAR THE FRONT FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE DAY AS AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. SURFACE FRONT WILL EXTEND ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF 40-50 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 25-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED LINES GIVEN GENERAL UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE. WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER ERN CO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE ENEWD AND SHOULD ENHANCE ASCENT INTO WRN MO NEAR PEAK HEATING. THIS MAY OVERCOME CAPPING WHERE CONVERGENCE AND HEATING IS STRONGEST INVOF SURFACE FRONT AND ALLOW VIGOROUS...SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY. SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL BUILD UPSCALE INTO A MCS THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG NOSE OF INCREASING SWLY LLJ WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE ESEWD TOWARDS THE MID MS/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS AND LIKELY BACK-BUILD INTO STRONGER LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME INTO WRN MO/ERN KS THROUGH THE EVENING. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 06/10/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 10 16:36:09 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2006 12:36:09 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 101633 SWODY1 SPC AC 101632 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.... ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD OVER SW WY...AND THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE EWD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. IN THE LOW LEVELS...UPSLOPE FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE PRESENT FROM NW KS/NE CO NWWD ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE TO ERN WY. DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT AND MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING WHILE MOVING EWD/SEWD TOWARD SW NEB AND NW KS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER OH VALLEY... A PRONOUNCED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NE KS EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MO TO KY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/ AND MASS CONVERGENCE ARE MAXIMIZED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ IS EXPECTED BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN SEVERAL SMALL CLUSTERS ALONG THE FRONT FROM NE KS/NW MO EWD BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS KS/MO AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF A WEAK MID-HIGH LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING NEWD OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE PHASING OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS CONFINED TO A VERY NARROW REGION ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHERE SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WITH ONE OR MORE MCS/S INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 06/10/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 10 20:00:06 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2006 16:00:06 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 101957 SWODY1 SPC AC 101956 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.... ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD THROUGH SRN WY AND HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WY/EXTREME WRN NEB...REFERENCE WW 457. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AND THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS FROM 45-50 HAS RESULTED IN MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ARE RESULTING IN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...INVERTED-V PROFILES IN THE LOWER 300 MB SUGGEST DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...WHILE THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO SUPPORT HAIL. OUTFLOWS ARE LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE ESEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS. ...ERN KS EWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... AT 19Z...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL KS EWD ACROSS NRN MO...THEN SEWD THROUGH KY INTO NC. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT WEST OF HUT...WHILE WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NERN KS AND NRN MO. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MASS CONVERGENCE ARE ALSO MAXIMIZED NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND MLCAPES SOUTH OF THE ELEVATED CONVECTION ARE NEARING 2000 J/KG. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ROOTED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...OR IF STORMS WILL DEVELOP ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION WHERE CONVERGENCE WOULD BE THE STRONGEST DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. IN EITHER CASE...SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KS/NRN MO BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN WRN KS...EVIDENT ON THE WV IMAGERY...MOVES ESEWD INTO THE AREA. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL... THOUGH THE WIND THREAT SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE DOWNDRAFTS CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS AND TRACK SEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FROM SRN IL SEWD INTO ERN TN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KT AND MLCAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS. ..IMY.. 06/10/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 01:05:24 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2006 21:05:24 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 110102 SWODY1 SPC AC 110100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE S CNTRL APPALACHIANS.... ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EVIDENT IN SURFACE ANALYSIS...EXTENDING IN EAST-WEST FASHION ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S...FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS FEATURE HAS BECOME THE FOCUS FOR MODERATE TO STRONG CONDITIONAL AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY... BENEATH A BELT OF MODERATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES. AIDED BY MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS...SCATTERED AREAS OF ONGOING VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EVOLVING UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE PROGRESSING EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND STRONGEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERLY CENTRAL PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR WEST OF TOPEKA INTO THE RUSSELL KS AREA...WHERE NEW STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE BY 02-03Z. CONVECTION SPREADING EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BEFORE BULK OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON NOSE OF VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET. HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AIR /1.50 TO 1.75 IN/ IS CONCENTRATED ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THIS REGION...AND IS CONTRIBUTING TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 2000 TO 4000 J/KG. THIS WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH HEAVY RAIN...AND...THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT EXCESSIVELY STEEP...RISK OF AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. UNSATURATED LOW/MID-LEVELS EVIDENT IN EVENING RAOBS ALSO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE COLD POOL WITH DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS MISSOURI...NEAR/SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A HAIL/GUSTY WIND THREAT AS THEY DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD IN CONFLUENT REGIME ALONG FRONTAL ZONE INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA AND KENTUCKY. SEVERE EVENTS MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THAN FARTHER UPSTREAM...AS ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REMAINS A BIT DRIER/LESS UNSTABLE. ..KERR.. 06/11/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 05:59:05 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2006 01:59:05 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 110556 SWODY1 SPC AC 110555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...SRN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO THE LEE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES.... AS A JET STREAK CONTINUES TO DIG AROUND THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND ALONG AN AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CANADIAN BORDER. DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION WILL GRADUALLY FOLLOW SUITE...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINNING TO DIG TOWARD NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF SEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE FRONT TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ...INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES. THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY...PARTICULARLY TO THE EAST OF THE OZARKS. ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...INITIATION OF STORMS IS MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL INHIBITION...BUT FORCING ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FARTHER NORTH/WEST...WHILE ONE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ACCELERATES OUT OF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST STATES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ...ANOTHER TROUGH IS ROTATING WESTWARD AROUND THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST RIDGE. MID-LEVEL COOLING WITH UPPER FEATURE COULD AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ...OZARKS INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST... BROADLY CYCLONIC 30-40 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONTAL ZONE. CONVECTION COULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM PARTS OF THE OZARKS INTO KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND IT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH OF A STABILIZING INFLUENCE THIS WILL HAVE LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG HEATING APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND FORCING ALONG THE LEE SLOPES COULD AIDE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW DOWNBURSTS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG FRONTAL ZONE INTO COASTAL AREAS BY THE MID EVENING HOURS. ...ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS... FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED HAIL/WIND THREAT MOST AREAS EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER SHEAR PROFILES...SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...SHOULD EXIST IN MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT...ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO EASTERN WYOMING. MODELS SUGGEST STORMS COULD BECOME RELATIVELY NUMEROUS ACROSS THIS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING ACCOMPANYING A WEAK IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF WESTERN TROUGH TOWARD CREST OF BUILDING CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE. ...FLORIDA... LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES COULD STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA GULF COAST FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BETTER POTENTIAL SHOULD AWAIT APPROACH OF DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ..KERR/JEWELL.. 06/11/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 12:41:12 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2006 08:41:12 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 111237 SWODY1 SPC AC 111235 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CAROLINA COAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...OZARKS TO THE CAROLINAS... EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED E-W FROM CENTRAL/NRN NC INTO SRN MO TODAY. ONGOING MCS WILL LIKELY CONTINUES ESEWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY EARLY TODAY AND MAY INCREASE ON ITS SRN/ERN EDGE AS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AHEAD OF LEADING OUTFLOW. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED EWD ALONG THE FRONT AND INVOF THE SRN APPALACHIANS FROM KY/ERN TN INTO NC AS CAP WEAKENS AND AIR MASS BECOMES MARGINAL TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THE MID AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINAL BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH SFC-6 KM SHEAR OF 20-25 KT INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AS ACTIVITY MOVES ESEWD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO SRN KS... SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE SSELY OVER WRN KS/ERN CO INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE/SERN WY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWER TO MID 50F SURFACE DEW POINTS TO REMAIN IN PLACE/ADVECT NWWD AND SUPPORT AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER THAN SATURDAY...BUT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KT SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AS STORMS INCREASE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN INTO SERN WY/NERN CO AND THE NEB PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. STORMS SHOULD AGAIN ORGANIZE INTO A MCS AND MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BEFORE WEAKENING LATE IN THE EVENING. A SEPARATE CLUSTER OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z OVER SRN KS/FAR NRN OK AS 25-35 KT SSWLY LLJ IMPINGES ON E-W ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN 2000 + J/KG MUCAPE AND 25-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WHICH WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS FROM THIS OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. ...FL... TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS NOW OVER THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO...THOUGH THE SYSTEM REMAINED WEAKLY ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT WITH APPARENT CENTER WELL WEST OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SYSTEM MAY STILL INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY NWD INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY/TONIGHT. THUS WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING SHEAR/BANDS OF STORMS NEARING THE FL COAST LATER TONIGHT IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE FROM TPC. ...PAC NW... UNUSUAL UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION AS WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES SWWD ACROSS SRN BC AND INTO NWRN WA...WHILE STRONGER UPPER LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY NEWD TOWARDS THE SWRN ORE/NRN CA COAST. INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING IMPULSE SHOULD INCREASE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NEAR THE CASCADES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SBCAPE APPROACHES 1000-1500 J/KG. THOUGH SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CORES. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 06/11/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 16:39:28 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2006 12:39:28 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 111636 SWODY1 SPC AC 111634 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM SE KS/NE OK EWD TO NC.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SE KS/NE OK EWD TO THE CAROLINAS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT... THE BELT OF LARGELY ZONAL FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION INVOF THE OH VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER SRN MN/IA WILL MOVE ESEWD TOWARD INDIANA BY LATE TONIGHT WHILE A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM EJECTS EWD FROM IL TO KY THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING NC OVERNIGHT. THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT...REPRESENTING A COMBINATION OF THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SEVERAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...EXTENDS FROM NRN OK/AR ENEWD INTO CENTRAL KY...AND THEN ESEWD TO NE NC. A SEPARATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND NEAR THE MCV MOVING TOWARD KY THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG ALONG THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES AOA 90 F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LARGELY N OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE MULTICELL CLUSTERS. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT IN NC WHICH WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE SRN FRINGE OF THE 30-40 KT MIDLEVEL WNWLY FLOW...WHERE MARGINAL SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS MAY OCCUR. DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS FROM MID-LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE WWD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS LESS CERTAIN ACROSS KS/OK DUE TO STRONGER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO/WY...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES OVER THIS AREA...CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE TIED STRONGLY TO THE FRONT IN CO...AND PERHAPS THE CHEYENNE AND PALMER RIDGES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS /STRONGER WITH NWD EXTENT FROM CO INTO WY/ AND A RELATIVELY DEEP SURFACE MIXED LAYER...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. STORMS MAY PROPAGATE EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH CONVECTION AIDED BY A WEAK SLY/SELY LLJ. ..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 06/11/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 11 20:00:40 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2006 16:00:40 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 111957 SWODY1 SPC AC 111956 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SE KS/NE OK EWD TO CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER ROCKIES AS TROUGH DEEPENS OFF W COAST. DOWNSTREAM S/WV TROUGH CROSSING MID MS RIVER VALLEY PRECEEDED BY MCV NEAR EVV. BAND OF MDT WLYS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS MID MS RIVER TO MID ATLANTIC COAST. COMBINATION OF BAROCLINIC AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXTENDS FROM VICINITY NC/VA BORDER WNWWD ACROSS KY AND THEN WWD TO ALONG OK/KS BORDER. VERY WARM AND MDTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING TO S OF BOUNDARIES WITH LITTLE REMAINING CIN E OF MS RIVER. ...TN VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC STATES... THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ALONG AND S OF BOUNDARIES FROM NC TO KY REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. GENERALLY 30-40KT OF SHEAR THIS REGION COUPLED WITH MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND/HAIL WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP. MORE CONCENTRATED SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS JUST AHEAD OF THE MCV NOW MOVING ESEWD ACROSS WRN KY WHERE SHEAR IS GREATEST AND SHORT LINES/BOWS COULD DEVELOP. ...MID MS VALLEY WWD TO SRN KS/NERN OK... E/W BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCUS FOR INITIATION OF AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. SOMEWHAT WEAKER BUT SUFFICIENT SHEAR ALONG THIS PORTION OF BOUNDARIES FOR PRIMARILY MULTI-CELL STORMS. WITH MOISTURE POOLING VICINITY BOUNDARY MLCAPES CLIMBING ABOVE 2000 J/KG. WEAKENING CAP FOR NEAR SURFACE BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 21Z WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... UPSLOPE E/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ERN CO/SERN WY. STRONG HEATING HAS ABOUT ELIMINATED CIN ALONG AND JUST E OF HIGHER TERRAIN CO/SERN WY. WITH 35-40KT OF SHEAR SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY AS STORMS PROPAGATE E/SE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN. LARGE HAIL/DOWNBURSTS WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT UNTIL LATE EVENING...AFTER WHICH DIURNAL COOLING WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING TREND. ..HALES.. 06/11/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 00:33:55 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2006 20:33:55 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 120031 SWODY1 SPC AC 120029 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0729 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VALLEY EWD TO COASTAL NC... ...ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ATTM FROM ERN WY SWD INTO NERN NM...WITHIN ZONE OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /1000 TO 1500 J/KG CAPE/ COMBINED WITH SHEAR MARGINALLY-SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS SUGGESTS THAT THREAT FOR HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE. THREAT MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS INTENSIFYING SELY LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS EVENING...THOUGH ERN EXTENT OF THREAT INTO THE PLAINS WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK OF INSTABILITY FROM N CENTRAL KS NWWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. ...TN VALLEY EWD TO THE NC COAST... TWO MAIN CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS -- ONE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND THE OTHER OVER CENTRAL AND ERN NC -- ARE ONGOING ATTM...WITHIN BELT OF MODERATE WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. STORMS OVER KY APPEAR TO BE BUILDING WWD INTO WRN TN...WITHIN ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE FRONT. AMPLE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE -- POSSIBLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD WANE WITH TIME LATER THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE THREAT ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. ...SRN ID AND VICINITY... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SRN ID...IN MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE/MODERATELY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH SHORT-WAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THIS REGION OVERNIGHT...A STRONGER STORM OR TWO -- AND ASSOCIATED LOCAL SEVERE THREAT -- MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ..GOSS.. 06/12/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 05:57:31 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 01:57:31 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 120554 SWODY1 SPC AC 120553 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS W CENTRAL FL... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...AS ELONGATED UPPER LOW/TROUGH TAKES ON A MORE NEUTRAL TILT WHILE LINGERING INVOF THE W COAST. MEANWHILE...RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY/EXPAND NWD ACROSS MT AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. MEANWHILE...SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE T.S. ALBERTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND BEGIN TO APPROACH FL. ...ERN PORTIONS OF THE PAC NW EWD INTO NRN ID/WRN MT... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING WWD ACROSS MT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE W COAST WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL TO MODERATE AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ASSOCIATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR -- INITIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF WA AND ORE AND THEN INTO NRN ID/WRN MT WITH TIME. WITH THIS REGION BENEATH MODERATELY-STRONG SSWLY/SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...RESULTING VEERING/SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS. THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION -- WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AS CONVECTION SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS NRN ID AND WRN MT. ...ERN CO/WRN KS/OK PANHANDLE... THOUGH RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS THIS REGION WILL RESULT IN A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED LATE-AFTERNOON STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN CO/NERN NM IN PERSISTENT ESELY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. WEAKENING CAP/CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AIDED BY A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO ROTATE EWD ACROSS THIS REGION AROUND UPPER HIGH PER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THOUGH MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK BENEATH UPPER RIDGE...SELYS AT LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VEERING WITH HEIGHT/SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WIND THREAT PERHAPS INCREASING INTO THE EVENING AS POSSIBLE MCS EVOLVES/MOVES QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. ...W CENTRAL FL... TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS FORECAST TO BEGIN APPROACHING W CENTRAL/NWRN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA LATE IN THE PERIOD...PER LATEST GUIDANCE FROM TPC/NHC. AS THIS OCCURS...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR E/NE OF THE CENTER OF ROTATION MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELL WITHIN LARGER-SCALE CIRCULATION. ...COASTAL CAROLINAS... COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS PERIOD...AS 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING NEAR/N OF FRONT EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS REGION ON THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...A FEW STRONG/LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS MAY EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES/RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL -- AS WELL AS OVERALL STORM INTENSITY. ..GOSS/JEWELL.. 06/12/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 06:09:06 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 02:09:06 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 120606 SWODY1 SPC AC 120604 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS W CENTRAL FL... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...AS ELONGATED UPPER LOW/TROUGH TAKES ON A MORE NEUTRAL TILT WHILE LINGERING INVOF THE W COAST. MEANWHILE...RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY/EXPAND NWD ACROSS MT AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. MEANWHILE...SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE T.S. ALBERTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND BEGIN TO APPROACH FL. ...ERN PORTIONS OF THE PAC NW EWD INTO NRN ID/WRN MT... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING WWD ACROSS MT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE W COAST WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL TO MODERATE AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ASSOCIATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR -- INITIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF WA AND ORE AND THEN INTO NRN ID/WRN MT WITH TIME. WITH THIS REGION BENEATH MODERATELY-STRONG SSWLY/SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...RESULTING VEERING/SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS. THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION -- WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AS CONVECTION SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS NRN ID AND WRN MT. ...ERN CO/WRN KS/OK PANHANDLE... THOUGH RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS THIS REGION WILL RESULT IN A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED LATE-AFTERNOON STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN CO/NERN NM IN PERSISTENT ESELY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. WEAKENING CAP/CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AIDED BY A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO ROTATE EWD ACROSS THIS REGION AROUND UPPER HIGH PER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THOUGH MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK BENEATH UPPER RIDGE...SELYS AT LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VEERING WITH HEIGHT/SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WIND THREAT PERHAPS INCREASING INTO THE EVENING AS POSSIBLE MCS EVOLVES/MOVES QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. ...W CENTRAL FL... TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS FORECAST TO BEGIN APPROACHING W CENTRAL/NWRN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA LATE IN THE PERIOD...PER LATEST GUIDANCE FROM TPC/NHC. AS THIS OCCURS...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR E/NE OF THE CENTER OF ROTATION MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELL WITHIN LARGER-SCALE CIRCULATION. ...COASTAL CAROLINAS... COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS PERIOD...AS 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING NEAR/N OF FRONT EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS REGION ON THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...A FEW STRONG/LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS MAY EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES/RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL -- AS WELL AS OVERALL STORM INTENSITY. ..GOSS/JEWELL.. 06/12/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 12:35:23 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 08:35:23 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 121232 SWODY1 SPC AC 121231 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NWRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES... STRONG SLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE PAC NW TODAY...EAST OF THE CASCADES...AS 50+ KT MID LEVEL JET ROTATES AROUND UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE NRN CA COAST. DEEP ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL OVERSPREAD A SURFACE FRONT/LOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER ERN ORE/WA THROUGH THE DAY. AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES OF WRN MT. STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH FORECAST SFC-6 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND FROM 40-45 KT ACROSS WRN MT. THIS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND FAST MOVING LINES THROUGH THE EVENING. ...FL... STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. ALBERTO IS ALREADY OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE SRN/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREA VWP/S INDICATING 2KM WINDS NEAR 30 KT. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO HEAT ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF ALBERTO/S CLOUD CANOPY WITH MID/UPPER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF SRN AND CENTRAL FL. GIVEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS TODAY. IN ADDITION...SURFACE THETA-E GRADIENT WAS EVIDENT EXTENDING FROM W-CENTRAL INTO NERN FL THIS MORNING WHICH MAY INCREASE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND ANY TORNADO POTENTIAL IF IT SURVIVES DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS PRIMARY CIRCULATION CENTER BECOMES BETTER DEFINED AND APPROACHES THE BIG BEND REGION AS FORECAST BY LATEST TPC GUIDANCE. ...CAROLINAS... STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SAGGING SSEWD ACROSS NC AND THE SRN APPALACHIANS TODAY WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING STRONG HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. REGION REMAINS UNDER SRN FRINGE OF MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAINING 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THIS WILL PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINES AND CLUSTERS OF STORMS...AND POSSIBLY A SUPERCELL OR TWO...AS ACTIVITY INCREASES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS AS THEY TRACK EWD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS TODAY AS MID/UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL LIMIT ASCENT AND WEAKEN SHEAR AS COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ADEQUATE FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AS SSELY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN 25-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME ORGANIZATION TO STORMS AS THEY DRIFT SSEWD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 06/12/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 16:39:10 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 12:39:10 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 121636 SWODY1 SPC AC 121635 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR NW/NRN ROCKIES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/N FL.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SC/NC.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS ERN CO/NE NM.... ...INTERIOR NW/NRN ROCKIES AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT... A DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE PAC COAST...WITH EMBEDDED LOWS NEAR VANCOUVER AND WSW OF SFO...WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW WITH ONLY SLOW EWD PROGRESS. THE VANCOUVER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SWWD AND THE LOW WSW OF SFO SHOULD EVOLVE INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE WITH TIME. E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A BELT OF 45-60 KT SLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA WILL SPREAD NWD FROM CENTRAL CA TO ERN WA/ORE AND ID BY LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW AND N-S BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN ORE/WA NWD INTO THE ID PANHANDLE AND WRN MT. SURFACE ANALYSES AND 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG SLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR TO SUPPORT LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AND OBSERVED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES ALSO SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...FL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT... TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO MAY REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL TOMORROW ALONG THE FL BIG BEND /SEE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM NHC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION/. E OF THE CYCLONE CENTER...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /WITH 76-78 F DEWPOINTS/ IS OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL AND SRN FL PENINSULA. THIS MOISTURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR CELLULAR STORMS OVER CENTRAL FL...WHILE LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG OVER CENTRAL AND W CENTRAL FL /0-3 KM SRH OF 250-300 M2/S2/. THE RICHER MOISTURE AND STRONGER SHEAR SHOULD DEVELOP SLOWLY NWD WITH TIME...WITH THE THREAT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL FL TODAY AND POTENTIALLY INTO N FL OVERNIGHT. ...CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON... A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ESEWD FROM THE OH VALLEY/APPALACHIANS TOWARD VA/NC. ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONT ACROSS NC...WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT WHERE THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WILL OVERLAP THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. ...ERN CO AREA... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BACKED WWD INTO ERN CO IN A POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE...LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES CONTINUE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM FROM THE DEEP PAC COAST TROUGH. A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN UT/NRN AZ SHOULD REACH THE FRONT RANGE OF CO BY EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD BE TIED STRONGLY TO THE W EDGE OF THE MOISTURE AND THE HIGH TERRAIN. FORECAST WIND PROFILES/VERTICAL SHEAR APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW STRONG/DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS WITH STORMS MOVING SLOWLY SSEWD. ..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 06/12/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 12 20:02:12 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 16:02:12 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 121959 SWODY1 SPC AC 121958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTERIOR PACIFIC NW... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FL... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WRN U.S. AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHARPEN JUST OFFSHORE WITH RIDGE BUILDING NWD THRU ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM ONE S/WV TROUGH EXITS MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES SEWD INTO UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS SEWD THRU CENTER OF CONUS SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM CENTRAL NC WWD ACROSS NRN AR TO OK CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY SWD. TRACK OF INTENSIFYING T.S. ALBERTO WILL TAKE THE CENTER INLAND POSSIBLY BY EARLY TUE NERN GULF COAST. ...CAROLINAS WWD ACROSS GA/AL... THUNDERSTORMS SOME SEVERE HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN REGION OF MDTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN E OF APPALACHIANS WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30KT ON SRN FRINGE OF WLYS SUPPORTS MULTICELL STORM MODE. PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE ELY FLOW OF MOISTURE PERSISTS ERN CO/NERN NM. DEEP LAYER VEERING SHEAR PROFILES AND MLCAPES RISING TO 1500 J/KG WILL FUEL A FEW SUPERCELLS AS STORMS PROPAGATE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN INTO PLAINS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DOWNBURSTS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...PAC NW... WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS INTERIOR PAC NW...CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY SPREADING NWD THRU ERN WA/OR IS SLOWLY THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS. THUNDERSTORMS OVER OR CASCADES WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP/PROPAGATE NEWD ACROSS ERN OR INTO SERN WA. ADDITIONAL STORMS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ERN OR WILL BE IN FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM ROTATION. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH ANY SUPERCELL ALTHOUGH BRIEF TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. WITH AIRMASS DESTABILIZING FURTHER BY LATE AFTERNOON SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS ERN WA AND WRN MT. ...SERN U.S... WITH T.S. ALBERTO INTENSIFYING AND HEADING FOR THE GULF COAST OF NRN FL...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND POSSIBLY INCREASE TONIGHT. FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE ATTM WRN FL EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT AS T.S. ALBERTO APPROACHES THE COAST BETWEEN TPA AND TLH. ..HALES.. 06/12/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 00:57:52 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2006 20:57:52 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 130054 SWODY1 SPC AC 130052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF WA/ORE INTO WRN MT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FL... ...PARTS OF THE PAC NW INTO NRN AND CENTRAL ID/WRN MT... A FEW STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE FROM PARTS OF ERN OREGON NEWD INTO WRN MT...WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VEERING/SHEARED FLOW WITH HEIGHT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. THOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SEVERE THREAT WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. ...HIGH PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM NERN WY SSWWD INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...WITHIN MARGINALLY- TO MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS. DESPITE THE FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A 30 KT SLY/SELY LOW-LEVEL JET THIS EVENING...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL NOT INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE SLOWLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...FL... ALBERTO IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE ERN GULF OFF THE NW FL COAST...WITH STRONGER BAND OF CONVECTION STILL W OF THE FL W COAST. A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED W OF MLB...AND N OF TPA...SO A SLIGHTLY GREATER THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SEEMS TO BE EVOLVING. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN FL. ...PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INVOF COLD FRONT FROM THE CAROLINAS WSWWD TO SERN LA. CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY BEGUN A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY...AND EXPECT THIS GENERAL TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE. IN THE MEAN TIME...EXPECT A FEW STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION...WITHIN MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. ..GOSS.. 06/13/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 06:06:58 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 02:06:58 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 130604 SWODY1 SPC AC 130602 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN PORTIONS OF THE PAC NW INTO WRN MT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRL AND NRN FL INTO SERN GA/ERN SC... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED/SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD. TROUGH/ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED INVOF THE W COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD AND TAKE ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME. DOWNSTREAM...A LARGE/HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO NWD ACROSS THE ERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE. IN THE EAST...TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA IS FORECAST TO EXPAND SWD ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY APPROACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DIVES SEWD INTO THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION. FINALLY...T.S. ALBERTO -- INITIALLY OVER THE NERN GULF -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD TO SRN SC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD -- PER LATEST GUIDANCE FROM TPC/NHC. ...ERN PORTIONS OF THE PAC NW EWD INTO MT/THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE PAC NW EWD INTO WRN MT...AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR E AS SD...THOUGH STRONG CAP FROM CENTRAL/ERN MT EWD WILL TEND TO HINDER STORM DEVELOPMENT. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF WRN MT -- WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST AS RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ADVECTS EWD BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES. DEGREE OF SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS MAY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS PARTS OF MT AND INTO SD OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS -- POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT. ...CENTRAL AND NRN FL INTO SERN GA/SRN SC... STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITHIN STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF T.S. ALBERTO. ONE AREA OF ENHANCED THREAT MAY OCCUR ACROSS ERN SC...WHERE THIS SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH SHOULD BE LYING ACROSS SC/GA. THREAT SHOULD SHIFT NNEWD OUT OF FL WITH TIME...AS ALBERTO SHIFTS NEWD TOWARD SC. ...PARTS OF SERN TX... THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF SE TX THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK VORT MAX NOW OVER WRN N TX MOVES SEWD INTO THIS REGION. WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE FORECAST...AND 30 TO 35 KT NLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS...LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELL OR WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS MAY EVOLVE -- ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL OR LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THREAT SHOULD DIMINSH THROUGH THE EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ..GOSS.. 06/13/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 12:33:40 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 08:33:40 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 131230 SWODY1 SPC AC 131228 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND WRN MT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FL INTO SRN GA/SRN SC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL SD... ...NRN ROCKIES INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WRN MT... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS AMPLIFIED OVER THE PAC NW. ASSOCIATED 50+ KT SLY MID LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE GREAT BASIN AND NOSE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 C/KM. THIS WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION IN UPDRAFTS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WITHIN MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH OVERNIGHT MODELS APPEAR TOO AGGRESSIVE IN FORECASTING LOWER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO WRN MT TODAY...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS UTILIZING MID 50F DEW POINTS STILL GENERATE 2000 J/KG MLCAPE BY 21Z. IN ADDITION...SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN ID AND INTO WRN MT INCREASING CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG AND JUST EAST OF ITS TRACK. APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS STORMS INCREASE BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL ID/WRN MT...AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL MT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. HAIL...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE QUITE LARGE...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALL EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS TODAY. ...WRN/CENTRAL SD... RUC AND NAM/NAMP CONTINUE TO GENERATE CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG HEATING ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO STALL E-W ACROSS SD TODAY. 4KM NMM/WRF ALSO LIKES THIS SOLUTION. APPEARS HEATING...CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE MAY ALLOW CAP TO BREAK NEAR THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS HOLD NEAR 60F JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. FORECAST SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD THIS ACTIVITY ROOT INTO ESELY SURFACE WINDS WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 35-40 KT. FARTHER EAST...DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE QUESTIONABLE ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...EXIT REGION OF 30-40 KT SLY LLJ SHOULD ALLOW A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST EWD OUT OF WRN SD OR DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING INTO CENTRAL SD. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE ELEVATED AFTER DARK WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. ...FL INTO THE COASTAL SC... T.S. ALBERTO APPEARS TO BE MAKING LANDFALL THIS MORNING NEAR THE FL BIG BEND REGION...WITH LITTLE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION NEAR THE STORM CENTER OVERNIGHT. EXCEPTION IS ALONG WRN PORTION OF CIRCULATION IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IS OVERSPREADING NRN FL INTO SRN GA JUST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. APPEARS LINE OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS NOW EXTENDING FROM E-CENTRAL INTO SWRN FL IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CONVERGENCE AXIS WITH WINDS VEERING TO SWLY IN ITS WAKE OVER W-CENTRAL FL. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR LOW LEVEL ROTATION MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY PERSIST INTO NRN FL AND SRN GA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO COASTAL SC LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUE AHEAD OF ALBERTO. HERE...LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS ENHANCED DUE TO ENELY SURFACE WINDS NORTHEAST OF ALBERTO/S CENTER. ...NRN GREAT BASIN... HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ACROSS NRN NV LATE TODAY AND SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD INTO NRN UT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS DEEP ASCENT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SMALL AREA OF MLCAPE WILL DEVELOP ABOVE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SUPPORTING A THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURSTS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL FROM STRONGER CORES. ...PARTS OF SERN TX... THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF SE TX THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK VORT MAX NOW OVER NRN TX MOVES SSEWD INTO THIS REGION. WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE FORECAST...AND 30 TO 35 KT NLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS...LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELL OR WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS MAY EVOLVE -- ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL OR LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 06/13/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 16:39:42 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 12:39:42 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 131636 SWODY1 SPC AC 131634 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR NRN ID AND WRN MT THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR ERN NV/WRN UT.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR WRN SD.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SE ATLANTIC COAST.... ...NRN ID/WRN MT TODAY INTO TONIGHT... ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING INVOF THE ID PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NWD MOVING MID LEVEL SPEED MAX AND A N-S BAROCLINIC ZONE. GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO THE E OF THE ONGOING STORMS IN THE RELATIVELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NRN ID AND WRN MT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL RESULT IN MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SLY SHEAR...WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WITHIN A BROKEN N-S BAND ACROSS ID/WRN MT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. ...SE ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... T.S. ALBERTO IS MAKING LANDFALL IN APALACHEE BAY AND WILL CONTINUE NEWD ACROSS SE GA INTO SC BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP DRY INTRUSION S THROUGH E OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THIS DRYING HAS LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER NE FL/SE GA. THE MORE INTENSE STORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE NOSE OF THE DRY SLOT NEAR THE SE GA COAST...IN THE AREA OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION INLAND ACROSS SE GA/SC TO SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALONG AND S OF THE SEPARATE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN SC. ...WRN SD AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT... SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW STALLED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN SD NEAR I-90...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY. THE 12Z RAPID CITY SOUNDING WAS STRONGLY CAPPED WITH A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 90S...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW AND SURFACE HEATING OVER THE BLACK HILLS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL DRIFT EWD/SEWD INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG/ AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ...ERN NV/WRN UT THIS AFTERNOON... THE LOW LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY ACROSS ERN NV AND UT /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S/...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NNEWD OVER SRN NV IN ADVANCE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING NNEWD FROM CA. MID LEVEL CONVECTION IS ONGOING WITHIN THIS PLUME...AND THE CONVECTION MAY BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILES AND STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STORMS IN A BAND ACROSS EXTREME ERN NV INTO W CENTRAL AND NW UT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY. ...SE TX THIS AFTERNOON... A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING SWD FROM ERN OK/AR TOWARD E TX AND LA. AT THE SURFACE...A NW-SE ORIENTED COLD FRONT HAS BACKED SWWD INTO N CENTRAL AND SE TX. CONVERGENCE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE SWWD. A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/OUTFLOW WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ..THOMPSON/PETERS.. 06/13/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 13 20:08:04 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 16:08:04 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 132005 SWODY1 SPC AC 132003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 VALID 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST AND NRN ROCKIES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF SD... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ... ...INTERIOR NORTHWEST/NRN ROCKIES... VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 60-70KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX WERE SPREADING NEWD ACROSS SRN GREAT BASIN ATTM. FORCING AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ACT ON INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS ID/MT TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP SLY SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE STORMS SHOULD EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN MT WHERE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW HAS BROUGHT GREATER MOISTURE WWD...AND STRONG HEATING WILL BOOST CAPE VALUES AHEAD OF THE STRONGER FORCING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH...BAND OF ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE HAS INDUCED MID-LEVEL CONVECTION ACROSS ERN NV. LIGHTNING DATA SUGGESTS THAT CG STRIKES HAVE RECENTLY TAPERED OFF WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVER SRN NV. HOWEVER...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE CLOUD BAND...COUPLED WITH HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE APPROACHING IMPULSE...SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING NORTH THROUGH EVENING. GIVEN STRONG WIND FIELDS ALREADY PRODUCING SFC GUSTS AROUND 40KT...EVEN WEAK INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DOWNBURST GUSTS NEARING 50KT. ...SD... ISOLATED STORMS...PROBABLY ROOTED AROUND 700MB...HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED ACROSS NERN SD. SLOPED ASCENT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID LEVEL JET STREAK WAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS DEVELOPMENT WHERE LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR HAIL. FARTHER SOUTHWEST... LATEST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INHIBITION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ALONG INVERTED TROUGH AND LEE TROUGH WHERE HEATING AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE SURFACE-BASED STORMS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS...AND WITHIN DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS ACROSS ERN WY...AND THEN MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING TO SUSTAIN MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY APPEARS LIMITED...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND STRENGTH OF SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NUMBER OF INTENSE AND ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS LIKELY FROM THIS ACTIVITY. A SMALL MCS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE AND SPREAD ESEWD ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ...SOUTHEAST COAST... KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITHIN NERN QUADRANT OF ALBERTO CIRCULATION REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS. A COUPLE OF BRIEF BUT DAMAGING TORNADOES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED NEAR THE COAST AND THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD PERSIST ALONG THE COAST OF SERN GA AND SC THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT UNTIL WIND FIELD WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM SLOWLY SLACKENS. ...SERN TX... CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAK WIND SHIFT SETTLING SWWD ACROSS ERN TX WAS AIDING ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF HOU ATTM. MEANWHILE... A 40-50KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX WAS SPREADING SWD ATOP THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR. EXPECT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A CHANCE FOR DAMAGING MICROBURSTS AND HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 06/13/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 01:07:00 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 21:07:00 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 140104 SWODY1 SPC AC 140102 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ID/WRN MT AND VICINITY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN SD... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE SERN U.S. COAST... ...ID/WRN MT AND VICINITY... STRONG /AROUND 70 KT/ SSWLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK CONTINUES SPREADING ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. DEGREE OF SHEAR HAS SUPPORTED ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...WITH THREAT LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST OVER NWRN MT...WHERE NUMEROUS STORMS ARE ONGOING WITHIN MODERATELY-UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. ALONG WITH THREAT FOR HAIL...LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. EWD EXTENT OF THREAT INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF MT WILL LIKELY BE HINDERED BY A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT SOME ENEWD EXPANSION OF CONVECTION --ACROSS ERN ID/NWRN WY AND INTO W CENTRAL MT -- IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. ...WRN SD... AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES ATTM OVER SWRN SD...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT STILL HINDERED BY CAPPING INVERSION. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AMPLE SHEAR SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR MAINLY HAIL WITH ANY ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. ...NERN FL NNEWD TO PARTS OF SRN AND ERN NC... A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUES WITHIN CIRCULATION OF ALBERTO -- PARTICULARLY FROM PARTS OF SERN GA NNEWD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THREAT SHOULD SPREAD AS FAR N AS SRN NC LATE...AS ALBERTO CONTINUES MOVING NNEWD. ...MIDDLE TX COAST... A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AHEAD OF SWD-MOVING VORT MAX NOW OVER E CENTRAL TX...WITHIN AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR. THOUGH SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS EVENING...A LOCAL SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ..GOSS.. 06/14/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 06:15:23 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 02:15:23 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 140610 SWODY1 SPC AC 140609 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN MT/NRN WY INTO THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SYNOPSIS... SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE/AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS WRN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM...CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY...WHILE MAIN AXIS OF ERN TROUGH MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE/SRN ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SD. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NRN PLAINS/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL/ERN SD BY 15/12Z. FURTHER E...ALBERTO IS FORECAST BY NHC/TPC TO MOVE FROM ERN SC NEWD ACROSS ERN NC...AND THEN OFF THE NERN NC COAST AROUND 15/OOZ. ...NRN WY/CENTRAL AND ERN MT EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS/PARTS OF NEB... CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD INVOF UPPER TROUGH...WHILE STRONGLY-CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MT AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BENEATH STRONG UPPER RIDGE. WARM SECTOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL MT/NRN WY AS CAP WEAKENS NEAR SURFACE LOW/AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...WITHIN DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. THOUGH FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE MERIDIONAL/SLY...SELY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS COMBINED WITH INCREASING WIND SPEED WITH HEIGHT WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED/ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WRN SD BY LATE AFTERNOON INVOF WARM FRONT -- AND INVOF THE BLACK HILLS...WHERE PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL UVV SHOULD LOCALLY WEAKEN CAP. CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME INTO THE EVENING...AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADS EWD...THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE/SPREAD EWD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...REACHING THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS/NEB BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...ERN CAROLINAS... ALBERTO -- INITIALLY PROGGED OVER ERN SC -- WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEWD WITH TIME...AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE NC COAST DURING THE EVENING. PRIOR TO THIS...MOIST/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THIS REGION COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR E/NE OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION SUGGESTS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..GOSS.. 06/14/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 12:35:11 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 08:35:11 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 141232 SWODY1 SPC AC 141230 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0730 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FAR NERN SC ACROSS ERN NC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...ERN NC/FAR NERN SC... REMNANTS OF ALBERTO REMAIN CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SC THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD INTO NERN NC. 12Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES PRESSURE RISES HAVE INCREASED IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THIS SUGGESTS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ACCELERATING NEWD THROUGH THE MORNING INTO REGION OF STRONG PRESSURE FALLS NOW EVIDENT NEAR FAY. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER/S TRACK WITH 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2. PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET TRANSLATING NEWD THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIKELY ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR FURTHER NEAR THE WARM FRONT. MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION HAS BECOME WELL WRAPPED AROUND ALBERTO AND LIES ATOP VERY MOIST/MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS...WHICH MAY BOOST INSTABILITY WITHIN WARM SECTOR. THUS...WITH HEATING THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON... CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SMALL SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES AS BANDS OF STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND LIFT N-NEWD ACROSS ERN NC. ...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ONGOING MCS WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG/SEVERE CORES WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO DIMINISH ALONG NOSE OF STRONG LLJ AND INVOF WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MID MORNING AS IT SPREADS/DEVELOPS ACROSS ERN ND/NERN SD AND INTO WRN MN/IA. OVERNIGHT MODELS CONSISTENT IN DEEPENING SURFACE LOW /NOW OVER FAR N-CENTRAL WY/ OVER FAR SERN MT THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. THOUGH SHEAR WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...AND BECOME ENHANCED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW...REGION WILL REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM FAR NRN IA WNWWD TO FAR SRN MT. EXPECT STRONG HEATING SOUTH OF THIS FRONT AND DEEP ASCENT WILL ALLOW STORMS TO FORM OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN MT/NRN WY AND NEAR THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS AS THEY SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH THREATS OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES ACROSS MUCH OF ERN MT INTO NWRN SD/SWRN ND. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE LARGE CLUSTERS DURING THE EVENING AND MAINTAIN THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL INTO ND LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS COULD BECOME PREVALENT WITH THIS MCS SHOULD DEEP ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF EWD MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT MAINTAIN NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORMS. FARTHER SOUTH...HIGH-BASED STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP WITHIN DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING FROM PARTS OF WRN SD INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS IT SPREADS EWD AND SLOWLY DIMINISHES OVER WRN NEB/WRN KS LATER THIS EVENING. ...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY... INTENSE CLUSTER OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL VORT MAX MOVING SSWWD OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY. 12Z SOUNDING FROM BRO INDICATES AIR MASS WILL BECOME VERY WEAKLY CAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 80S. GIVEN SFC-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT...A FEW GUSTS/HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STORMS SPREADING GENERALLY SWWD ACROSS THE SRN TIP OF TX THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 06/14/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 16:37:53 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 12:37:53 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 141635 SWODY1 SPC AC 141633 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS REGION.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NC.... ...ERN DAKOTAS/IA TODAY... STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING FROM S CENTRAL ND TO SW MN AND ERN IA. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE BASED NEAR 700 MB...AND IS BEING SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL WAA AND A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE /BETWEEN THE EXIT REGION OF THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS JET AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK MOVING SEWD OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY/. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT... A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER SE ID/NRN UT WILL MOVE NEWD TO ERN MT/WRN ND BY LATE TONIGHT. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER EXTREME SE MT AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIFT NWD FROM SD INTO SW ND AND ERN MT. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY THE EJECTING MID LEVEL WAVE. RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN A LARGELY N-S BAND FROM NRN WY/S CENTRAL MT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...EITHER AS A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING ERN ID STORMS...OR AS NEW DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND NOW OVER WRN WY/S CENTRAL MT. THE CONVECTION SHOULD THEN SPREAD NEWD ACROSS ERN MT LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO WRN ND TONIGHT. L0W-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE NRN PLAINS HAS BEEN LIMITED BY SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS...AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 56-60 F ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INVOF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IN THE WARM SECTOR TO THE S. ADDITIONALLY...A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS OVERSPREADING THE NRN PLAINS AND PROVIDING A SUBSTANTIAL CAP. THE MARGINAL MOISTURE AND WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SUGGEST THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 95-100 F WILL BE NECESSARY TO MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND THAT ANY WARM SECTOR CONVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED. MEANWHILE...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WITHIN THE LARGER CONVECTIVE BAND...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY FAVORING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS MORE QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINEAR CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...AND THE MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. FARTHER S...ISOLATED HIGH-BASED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS WRN NEB INTO NE CO/NW KS. ANY STORMS THAT FORM COULD DEVELOP SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AND BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...ERN NC THIS AFTERNOON... THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ALBERTO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AND OFFSHORE NEAR ECG BY THIS EVENING. IN THE INTERIM PERIOD...AN INFLUX OF LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS...SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS...AND STRONG L0W-LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ACROSS ERN NC. ..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 06/14/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 14 20:04:16 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 16:04:16 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 142000 SWODY1 SPC AC 141959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME ERN NC... ...ERN DAKOTAS... 18Z SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A STRONG INVERSION LOCATED BETWEEN 700- 850 MB ON THE BIS AND ABR 18Z SOUNDINGS...TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING W-E ACROSS SRN SD. LIFT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TODAY HAS BEEN PROVIDED BY WARM ADVECTION...CENTERED AROUND 700 MB...AND LIFT FROM THE EXIT REGION OF A NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES JET MAX AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET MAX MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 18Z ABR SOUNDING INDICATED LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS STRONGER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED SOUTH AND WEST OF ABERDEEN. ALTHOUGH THE LIFT FROM THE COUPLED JETS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE OH VALLEY JET MAX MOVES FURTHER SEWD...THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 55 KT OVERNIGHT. THE NET RESULT IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS SPREADING NWD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM ERN SD INTO ERN ND...WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. ...NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN MT/WRN WY WILL SHIFT EWD INTO ERN MT/WRN ND BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN NERN WY...WITH A N-S ORIENTED COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THE LOW AND FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY MORNING. STRONG FORCING WAS EVIDENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS PORTIONS OF WY/MT WITH A BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY ONGOING...SEE WW/S 480 AND 481. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD/EWD TONIGHT WITH THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTING SEVERE STORMS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. THE STRONG FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MAY AID THE STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN SD/ND TONIGHT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE GREATER THREAT AT THAT TIME. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... FORCING FROM NRN ROCKIES TROUGH WILL BE WEAKER ACROSS THIS AREA THAN THE NRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING OF A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES TO REACH THE LFC...AROUND 600 MB. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND THE DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATES DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. ...ERN NC... THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ALBERTO...LOCATED NEAR ECG... SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BETWEEN 22-00Z. UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC...THE SHEAR AND UPPER 70 TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS. ..IMY.. 06/14/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 15 01:01:33 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2006 21:01:33 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 150058 SWODY1 SPC AC 150057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS AREA... EARLY THIS EVENING...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS CONTINUE FROM ERN MT THROUGH WRN SD. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NNEWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE FROM WRN ND THROUGH MUCH OF SD REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG...BUT WITH A STRONGER CAP WITH EWD EXTENT INTO THE DAKOTAS. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NRN PLAINS WITHIN THE AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEWD EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG STORM RELATIVE INFLOW. THESE PROCESSES WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO PERSIST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE DAKOTAS NEXT FEW HOURS. FARTHER EAST OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED. DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS IS CONDITIONAL IN PART ON ABILITY OF ONGOING STORMS TO DEVELOP A COLD POOL...IN WHICH CASE THEY MAY BE ABLE TO FORWARD PROPAGATE INTO PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN DAKOTAS. STILL...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG CAP...OVERALL INTENSITIES MAY GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND STORMS MAY BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME. DOMINANT STORM MODE APPEARS TO BE TRANSITIONING TO CLUSTERS AND LINES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OR SO...ESPECIALLY WITH MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY OVER SWRN ND AND NWRN SD. ..DIAL.. 06/15/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 15 06:01:38 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 15 Jun 2006 02:01:38 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 150558 SWODY1 SPC AC 150556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CDT THU JUN 15 2006 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY AREA AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH INCLUDING ONE THAT WILL CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A SECONDARY IMPULSE WILL EJECT INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...NERN CO...NWRN KS...WRN AND CNTRL NEB AND ERN SD... A RESERVOIR OF WARM MID LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML WITH 17+ C TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS WILL SERVE TO CAP THE ATMOSPHERE TO SURFACE BASED STORMS OVER THIS AREA MUCH OF THE DAY. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL CHARACTERIZE THE HIGH PLAINS WARM SECTOR. N OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF ND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S MAY PERSIST. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE AROUND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD THROUGH CO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED STORMS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGION OF NERN CO AND SERN WY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40 TO 50 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AS IT SPREADS NEWD. CAP WILL BE STRONGER WITH EWD EXTENT INTO THE PLAINS AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN STRONG STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT ACTIVITY MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. ... ERN ND THROUGH NWRN MN... LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS COULD SLOW HEATING IN THIS AREA...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY IN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. OVERALL THREAT IN THIS AREA COULD BE LIMITED BY WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER COULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL/GUYER.. 06/15/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 15 12:37:51 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 15 Jun 2006 08:37:51 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 151233 SWODY1 SPC AC 151231 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 AM CDT THU JUN 15 2006 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NRN PLAINS... ...CENTRAL/ERN ND INTO NERN SD EWD ACROSS WRN MN... STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING EWD ACROSS WRN ND WILL BECOME FOCUS FOR RENEWED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CAPPING WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONG FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE. HOWEVER....FORCED ASCENT AND STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING WITHIN LOWER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY 21Z AS AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 35-40 KT SUGGESTING MORE DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR...THOUGH OVERALL EVOLUTION INTO LINES/CLUSTERS ALONG EWD MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. HOWEVER...SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN INTO NERN SD/SERN ND LATER THIS EVENING AND LCLS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LOW FOR A FEW TORNADOES. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO SD... A RESERVOIR OF WARM MID LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH 17+ C TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS WILL SERVE TO CAP THE ATMOSPHERE TO SURFACE BASED STORMS OVER THIS AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. DUE TO DEEP MIXING...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL CHARACTERIZE THE HIGH PLAINS WARM SECTOR. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD THROUGH CO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED STORMS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGION OF NERN CO AND SERN WY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40 TO 50 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AS IT SPREADS QUICKLY NEWD...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF LINES/BOW ECHOES. EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS...AS STORMS OVERSPREAD DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE INVOF STALLED FRONT EXTENDING NNEWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEB WELL INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING. ONCE CAPPING BEGINS INHIBITING STRONG SURFACE DOWNDRAFTS OVERNIGHT...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO LARGE HAIL AS MCS MOVES TOWARDS ERN SD/SWRN MN. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 06/15/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 15 16:36:46 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 15 Jun 2006 12:36:46 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 151633 SWODY1 SPC AC 151631 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CDT THU JUN 15 2006 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS.... ...CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT... A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY EWD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE NRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW OVER NW MT/SRN ALBERTA...WHILE A SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD FROM THE SRN GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM ERN CO TO NW KS/CENTRAL NEB AND THE WRN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD/SEWD TODAY. A SURFACE CYCLONE ALONG THE FRONT IN N CENTRAL NEB THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL ACROSS SE CO/NE NM IN RESPONSE TO THE WAVE APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE ANALYSES AND 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL RATHER POOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING NWWD ACROSS TX...BUT IT APPEARS THAT VERTICAL MIXING WILL PARTIALLY COUNTERACT ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...AND THE 60+ DEWPOINTS APPEAR UNLIKELY TO REACH THE LEE TROUGH AND BAROCLINIC ZONE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. INSTEAD...SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 95-100 F AND ASCENT ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL WEAKEN THE CAP AND HELP INITIATE HIGH-BASED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A DEEP/DRY SUB CLOUD MIXED LAYER WILL PROMOTE DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH OF THE STORMS/COLD POOLS INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S BY EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS NW KS/NEB. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...NAMELY EARLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORMS DURING THE EVENING. ...CENTRAL/ERN DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... A MID LEVEL TROUGH...ENHANCED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...IS MOVING NEWD FROM NE SD/SE ND TO WRN MN. CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S E OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO WEAKEN IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL MID LEVEL WAVE...LEAVING THE STRONGER FLOW/HEIGHT GRADIENTS W OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE AN ENVIRONMENT WITH POTENTIALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR THAT SHOULD BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. CONVECTION MAY FORM FIRST ALONG THE BOUNDARY FIRST IN SD...AND THEN SPREAD NNEWD INTO ND BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. ..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 06/15/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 15 20:10:46 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 15 Jun 2006 16:10:46 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 152008 SWODY1 SPC AC 152006 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS... ...CNTRL PLAINS... LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DEEP OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVER SRN ALBERTA WITH OCCLUDED FRONT ARCING SEWD THEN SWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TO WEAK FRONTAL WAVE OVER NRN NEB. STALLED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD AND BISECTS NEB...CONTINUING SWWD TO THERMAL/LEE LOW OVER SERN CO. GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BECOME FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT AND NEAR THE WEAK FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS NEB...WHILE STRONGLY HEATED AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WAS SITUATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERMAL LOW...AND LEE TROUGH...FROM SERN CO/WRN KS SWWD ACROSS NM/TX. DESPITE INCREASING INSTABILITY AND BROADLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW AIDING LARGE SCALE UPWARD MOTION ACROSS THE REGION...CAPPING REMAINS QUITE PRONOUNCED NEAR THE FRONT IN NEB GIVEN 700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 12-16C RANGE. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT INTENSE SURFACE HEATING AND DEEP MIXING ACROSS ERN CO AND WRN KS HAS LOCALLY OVERCOME INHIBITION IN THESE AREAS TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION ROOTED ABOVE 600MB. PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EMERGENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL HIGH-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP AND VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...AND DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND WITH THIS ACTIVITY. FARTHER NORTH....ACROSS NEB...SOUNDINGS FROM LBF INDICATED THAT INHIBITION WAS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND EXPECT LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DIABATIC FORCING TO CONTINUE TO ERODE THE CAP ACROSS THE REGION AND SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING. LATEST RUC SUGGESTS THAT HIGH-BASED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS NWRN KS MAY SPREAD NEWD INTO SWRN NEB BEFORE 00Z. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED NEAR THE FRONT AND LOW WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROMOTING UPDRAFT ROTATION/STORM ORGANIZATION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WITH AN MCS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING NWD/NEWD THROUGH LATE EVENING. ...DAKOTAS... OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW EWD PROGRESS INTO STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF ND/SD THROUGH TONIGHT. THROUGH LATE EVENING...LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ARE WEAKER ACROSS THIS AREA THAN FARTHER SOUTH BUT LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ON THE EDGE OF THE STRONGER INHIBITION...FROM NCNTRL SD INTO CNTRL/ERN ND THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BUT MORE MARGINAL ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR BENEATH WEAKER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/WIND/TORNADO POTENTIAL IF DISCRETE STORMS CAN FORM NEAR/ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 06/15/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 16 01:05:06 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 15 Jun 2006 21:05:06 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 160101 SWODY1 SPC AC 160059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL THROUGH NRN PLAINS... ...CNTRL THROUGH NRN PLAINS... THIS EVENING A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL ND SWD THROUGH N CNTRL NEB THEN SWWD INTO NERN CO. AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG EXISTS IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT FROM NEB NEWD THROUGH ND. A LINE OF SCATTERED HIGH BASED STORMS PERSISTS FROM WRN KS NEWD INTO S CNTRL NEB. THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPED WHERE STRONG MIXING AND HEATING WAS SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN THE CAP. THE ATMOSPHERE IS STRONGLY CAPPED EAST OF THESE STORMS AND SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP MUCH FARTHER E...BUT MAY CONTINUE TO TRAIN FROM SW TO NE. PRIMARY FOCUS MAY SHIFT FARTHER N ACROSS CNTRL NEB IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHERE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS INCREASING DOWNSTREAM FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD OUT OF CO. THIS ALONG WITH INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEXT FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AS IT SPREADS NEWD INTO PARTS OF SD. SWLY EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40 TO 45 KT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE WITH BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WIND AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. CONVECTION ALSO APPEARS TO BE INCREASING FARTHER N FROM N CNTRL SD INTO CNTRL ND WITHIN ZONE OF WEAKER ASCENT IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED...AND IT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE WHERE THESE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO FULLY TAP INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER GIVEN INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT THAN FARTHER S. NEVERTHELESS...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE MUCAPE AND STEEP LAPSE APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS MANAGE TO EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS LATER THIS EVENING. ..DIAL.. 06/16/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 16 05:52:08 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 01:52:08 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 160549 SWODY1 SPC AC 160547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE PLAINS TODAY. SRN BRANCH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER CO WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ALONG NWRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM ND SWWD THROUGH NERN CO WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD. THE SRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER NERN CO IS CURRENTLY BEING REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE RAPID SWD MOVEMENT THROUGH ERN CO AND EXTREME WRN KS INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS AREA... LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S WILL CHARACTERIZE THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. TIMING OF SRN STREAM IMPULSE SUGGESTS STORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLY OR BE ONGOING...ESPECIALLY IN POST FRONTAL REGION OF NERN CO INTO NWRN KS. BEST DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FARTHER S. SWLY FLOW IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG IS EXPECTED FROM WRN TX NEWD THROUGH WRN KS INTO NEB AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF WRN KS SWD THROUGH WRN TX WHERE DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ENHANCED BY SRN STREAM IMPULSE. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. THE NATURE OF THE LINEAR FORCING AND ORIENTATION OF THE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT SUGGEST SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. STORMS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF MAINTAINING MORE PERSISTENT DISCRETE STRUCTURES FARTHER SWD INTO W TX OR IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS. SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ...UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA... ONGOING CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY SUPPORTED BY A STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET. A RESERVOIR OF LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST IN THIS REGION. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE S OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY MID DAY. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. A 50+ KT MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WITH WEAK HIGH LEVEL FLOW. THIS SUGGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY BE OUTFLOW DOMINANT WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL/GUYER.. 06/16/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 16 12:32:06 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 08:32:06 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 161228 SWODY1 SPC AC 161227 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS STATES... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES....WITH A LARGE RIDGE DOMINATING THE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND SOUTHEAST REGION. TWO FEATURES ARE EVIDENT IN FLOW FIELD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS. THESE SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS STATES TODAY. ...NEB/KS INTO TX... SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS WEAKENING AND SHOULD DEPART REGION BY LATE MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SEVERAL HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NEB. REMNANT WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR RENEWED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW A DEEP-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL. THIS WILL AID IN VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS ONCE THE CAP IS BREACHED THROUGH DAYTIME HEATING. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAINS THREAT. ...SD/ND/MN... ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY IS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DEPICTED OVER SD/NEB WILL ROTATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...HELPING TO ELIMINATE CAPPING INVERSION AND AIDING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARY AXIS OF SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIE ROUGHLY ALONG A GLD-HSI-FRM LINE TODAY. STRONG HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH APPROACHING TROUGH...SHOULD HELP TO ELIMINATE CAP LEADING TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS. VERTICAL SHEAR IN THIS REGION SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR FARTHER WEST ALONG THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN MN/EASTERN SD. ..HART/GUYER.. 06/16/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 16 16:18:54 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 12:18:54 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 161615 SWODY1 SPC AC 161614 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS STATES TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR DEPICTS WELL THE VORT CENTER NRN NM ROTATING THRU THE BOTTOM OF ROCKIES TROUGH. LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT WITH VORT NOW ACROSS ERN NM NWD INTO SERN CO AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD ENHANCING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG BOTH THE FRONTAL ZONE KS/CO BORDER AND THE DRY LINE THAT WILL EXTEND SWD THRU THE TX PANHANDLE BY MID AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NWD E OF DRY LINE AND FRONT WHICH COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTS THE AIR MASS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE BY MID-AFTERNOON. WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO 2500 J/KG AND THE CAP WEAKENING...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM WRN KS POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS PERMIAN BASIN OF SWRN TX. WHILE THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARGUE FOR SUPERCELLS...THE EXPECTED HIGH BASES AND THE STRONG SLY COMPONENT WILL LIMIT VEERING POTENTIAL...SUGGEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIMITED AND LIKELY IN EARLY STAGES OF ANY SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. STORMS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND PROPAGATE EWD REACHING MAX INTENSITY LATE EVENING CENTRAL KS/WRN OK...PRIOR TO DIURNAL WEAKENING LATER TONIGHT. WITH DCAPES AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG...DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANT THREAT THRU LATE EVENING. ...UPPER MID WEST... SYNOPTIC FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED FROM NWRN MN/ND BORDER SSWWD TO SWRN NEB. CLOUDINESS FROM THE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS SLOWED SURFACE HEATING...HOWEVER MUCH OF CLOUDINESS WILL DISSIPATE AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE THRU THE 80S MUCH OF AREA FROM NEB TO SRN MN/WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MID/UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AS FAR E OF FRONT AS WI/IA...AIR MASS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO BECOME MDTLY TO VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES 2000 J/KG OR GREATER FROM NEB NEWD TO SRN MN/WRN WI. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT ONLY 6-7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES...SUGGEST STORM MODE THIS AREA MOSTLY MULTICELL/OUTFLOW DOMINATED...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS/S. HOWEVER GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY VICINITY SURFACE BOUNDARIES. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THREAT DIMINISHING BY LATE EVENING WHEN COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. ..HALES/GRAMS.. 06/16/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 16 20:03:50 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 16:03:50 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 161959 SWODY1 SPC AC 161958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF WRN KS...OK PANHANDLE AND NRN TX PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS STATES TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUED TO DEPICT VORTICITY CENTER WITHIN BASE OF ROCKIES TROUGH WAS NOW LOCATED OVER SERN CO/NERN NM. THIS IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD AS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ASCENT SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH ATOP DESTABILIZING AIR MASS ALONG/E OF LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE WILL WEAKEN INHIBITION FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING FROM W TX NNEWD INTO CENTRAL/ERN NEB. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000+ J/KG/ AND SLY WINDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WITH SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL TEND TO FAVOR LINES/BOWING SEGMENTS. HOWEVER...IN ADDITION TO HAIL...SOME VERY LARGE...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BULK SHEAR VALUES UP TO 45-65 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THUS...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY PRIMARILY FROM SWRN NEB SWD TO THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST. STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD OVER THIS REGION SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S WITH CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT INTO THE LATE EVENING FROM CENTRAL NEB TO WRN OK. ...NEB NEWD TO UPPER MIDWEST... A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER WRN NEB IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN MN BY LATE THIS EVENING. ASCENT WITH THIS IMPULSE IS AIDING A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM SERN SD /W OF FSD/ SWD INTO ERN NEB. ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM ERN NEB INTO WI AS SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTES TO MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500-2000 J/KG. ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD MAINTAINING ONGOING SERN SD/ERN NEB COMPLEX AS IT TRACKS NEWD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING. ..PETERS.. 06/16/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 01:03:03 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 21:03:03 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 170059 SWODY1 SPC AC 170058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... LINEAR MCS EXTENDS FROM SRN NEB SWD THROUGH W CNTRL KS AND WRN OK. THE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS LIKELY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN IN EXCESS OF 45 KT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING EWD THROUGH THE CNTR/SRN HIGH PLAINS. STORMS HAVE ORGANIZED A COLD POOL...AND INCREASING STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP TO SUSTAIN A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THROUGH WRN OK...CNTRL KS INTO PARTS OF SERN NEB. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ORIGINATING FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IS MOVING NWWD THROUGH CNTRL OK AND MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH STORMS OVER WRN OK RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN INTENSITY. FARTHER N ACROSS KS STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST...BUT WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. OTHER MORE DISCRETE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FARTHER S ALONG PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF WRN TX. THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT SPREADS EWD. WITH THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THIS REGION...AN OVERALL DECREASE IN THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES. ...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA... STORMS CONTINUE TRAINING NEWD ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NWRN IA THROUGH SRN MN AND NWRN WI. LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS WITH BOWING STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE. THE WARM SECTOR S OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THIS ACTIVITY PERSISTING NEXT FEW HOURS. MODEST EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY MULTICELL IN CHARACTER. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. REFERENCE SWOMCD 1209 FOR MORE INFORMATION. ..DIAL.. 06/17/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 06:09:24 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 02:09:24 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 170605 SWODY1 SPC AC 170604 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF OK AND TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER ERN CO/NERN NM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER S CNTRL CANADA WILL AMPLIFY SEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING HEIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND ERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SWD THROUGH WRN TX AND NWRN TX AS WELL AS INTO CNTRL OK. NRN EXTENTION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK BOUNDARY MAY PERSIST FROM SRN MN NEWD THROUGH NWRN WI. ...OK AND TX... SEVERE THREAT IN THIS REGION WILL BE SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED BY ONGOING STORMS. ONGOING STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY CONTINUE EWD THROUGH OK BUT WILL LEAVE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PARTS OF OK INTO NRN AND WRN TX. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG IN WAKE OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. A SECONDARY IMPULSE MAY ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP IN VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM PARTS OF SWRN THROUGH N CNTRL TX INTO SRN AND CNTRL OK. A BAND OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AROUND 30 TO 35 KT WHICH WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH THE INSTABILITY AXIS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER N IN KS ALONG SURFACE FRONT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO VORT MAX. MUCH OF THIS AREA HAS BEEN WORKED OVER BY OVERNIGHT STORMS. HOWEVER...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ONCE HEATING COMMENCES ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL STORMS...BUT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA... POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE IN WARM SECTOR E AND S OF REMNANT OUTFLOW/SURFACE BOUNDARIES DURING THE DAY WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY POSSIBLE. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE NRN PLAINS SUPPORTING SWLY VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35 KT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. PRIMARY STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE MULTICELLULAR WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL/TAYLOR.. 06/17/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 12:33:46 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 08:33:46 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 171230 SWODY1 SPC AC 171229 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0729 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...WHILE RIDGE HOLDS FIRM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. PRIMARY REGION OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY WILL BE ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM TX INTO WI/MI WHERE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE COINCIDENT. ...KS/OK/TX... DECAYING MCS REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING...WITH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER OK AND SOUTHEAST KS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD BY LATE MORNING ALLOWING RELATIVELY STRONG DAYTIME HEATING ALONG SURFACE DRYLINE FROM NORTHWEST TX INTO CENTRAL KS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG/. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS CENTRAL NM. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO WEST TX/OK THIS AFTERNOON AROUND PEAK HEATING...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES OF 30-45 KNOTS WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS...WHILE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHWEST TX. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KS/EASTERN OK/CENTRAL TX DURING THE EVENING. ...MN/WI/MI... MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG WEAK SURFACE FRONT/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MN. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS WI AND INTO LOWER MI THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. ...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MID LEVEL VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO. THIS FEATURE IS PROGD TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND STRONG HEATING WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF FEATURE. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN VT/NH AND WESTERN ME THIS EVENING. IF THEY CAN MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR IN STRONGEST CELLS. ..HART/TAYLOR.. 06/17/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 16:26:21 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 12:26:21 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 171623 SWODY1 SPC AC 171621 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... UPPER LOW LOCATED SWRN NEB/KS BORDER WITH TROUGH AND COLDER AIR ALOFT EXTENDING SSWWD INTO SWRN TX. LOW OPENING UP AS TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FURTHER N S/WV TROUGH IN FASTER WESTERLIES ALONG CANADIAN BORDER MOVES EWD FROM CURRENT LOCATION MT/ND AREA ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF PLAINS HAS SLOWED HEATING OF THE STILL VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY QUITE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ONGOING MCS ERN TX MOVING INTO VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE LOWER MS VALLEY. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING COUPLED WITH COOLING ALOFT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE AIRMASS FROM SRN KS SWD INTO NCENTRAL/NWRN TX. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL WEAKEN WITH APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE AIR MASS BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE ON THE WRN EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE WRN OK INTO NWRN TX. WITH MLCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG...STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM AND 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON. GREATEST THREAT WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL...BUT WITH DCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ALSO EXPECTED. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...HOWEVER MARGINAL SHEAR SUGGESTS ANY OCCURRENCE WILL BE SHORT LIVED. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE WELL AFTER DARK...PARTICULARLY CENTRAL TX WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST. ...ERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY... ONGOING FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS ERN TX EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF MCS WITH CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR AT MID/UPPER LEVELS. WITH HEATING MLCAPES ARE ALREADY ABOVE 2500 J/KG...THUS WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD RAMP UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS MCS MOVES INTO LA. ... MN/WI/MI... A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS SERN MN/WI INTO UPPER MI. ONGOING HEATING WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN CIN AND ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON EAST OF THE THICK CLOUD COVER OVER WRN AND NRN MN. WITH MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG...30-40 KT OF PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...MULTICELLULAR SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH DOWNBURST WIND AND LARGE HAIL. STORMS SHOULD PROPAGATE E/NEWD ACROSS WI/UPR MI PRIOR TO WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING. ..HALES/GRAMS.. 06/17/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 17 20:05:38 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 16:05:38 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 172001 SWODY1 SPC AC 172000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ SRN PLAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCATED ALONG THE SRN TO ERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH. ALTHOUGH COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-10 TO -12 C AT 500 MB/ EXTEND N-S ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5-8 C/KM WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN EXTENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OK/TX. THESE LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING ESPECIALLY FROM SWRN OK INTO CENTRAL/WRN TX WITHIN MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 2000-3000 J/KG INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FARTHER N...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAKER /MLCAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG/ FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO CENTRAL KS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL NEB/KS INTO CENTRAL/WRN OK TO NW-W TX. HOWEVER...MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND GREATEST SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM TX/OK INTO SRN KS WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE BEST FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF OK WHERE LCLS WILL BE LOWER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONGER. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE WELL AFTER DARK... PARTICULARLY CENTRAL/SRN TX WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST...WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY DEVELOPING SSEWD. ...MN/WI/MI... STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG/S OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL MN NEWD ACROSS THE NRN U.P. OF MI HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG/ THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER ASCENT ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG MID LEVEL JET WHICH EXTENDED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ONTARIO AND WAA ALONG NOSE OF SLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO AID IN ADDITIONAL STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS FAR NRN WI INTO U.P. OF MI WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT FARTHER W INTO ERN MN. ...E TX/LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY... EXTENSIVE AREA OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM THE UPPER TX COAST NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP MOIST SSWLY FLOW REGIME. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF TWO MID LEVEL FEATURES...ONE AN MCV NOW LOCATED OVER NERN TX AND THE SECOND A WEAKENING IMPULSE LOCATED OVER SERN MO WILL SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..PETERS.. 06/17/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 18 01:04:00 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2006 21:04:00 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 180100 SWODY1 SPC AC 180058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE MID MO VALLEY INTO TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES... ...TX... MCS IS RAPIDLY EVOLVING THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NWRN...W-CNTRL AND N-CNTRL TX AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD TOWARD BASE OF MEAN TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. INFLOW AIR MASS OVER CNTRL TX IS HOT AND MOIST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WHEN COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. EXPECT FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH OF MCS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALONG ORGANIZING COLD POOL AS COMPLEX CONTINUES SEWD TOWARD CNTRL TX. CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OWING TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. ...NEB/KS/OK... LINE OF TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM SERN NEB INTO S-CNTRL KS AHEAD OF PRIMARY VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTING EWD THROUGH N-CNTRL KS/S-CNTRL NEB. PRIOR CONVECTION HAS EFFECTIVELY STABILIZED AIR MASS ACROSS MO INTO FAR ERN KS...THUS THERE APPEARS TO BE ONLY A NARROW SPATIAL CORRIDOR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE AIR MASS REMAINS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG --REFERENCE 00Z OAX/TOP SOUNDINGS--. MERIDIONAL HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG ACROSS THIS AREA WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THIS SHEAR IN CONJUNCTION WITH RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER FORCING SHOULD MAINTAIN A THREAT OF HIGH WINDS/HAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS ERN KS TOWARD THE MID MO VALLEY. FARTHER S OVER OK...OUTFLOW FROM PRIOR CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED MUCH OF REGION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD THROUGH THE NWRN PART OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH SOME THREAT OF ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES SEWD AND INTERACTS WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ...WRN GREAT LAKES... A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXISTS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD INTO WRN WI WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...IT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS UPPER JET STREAK DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. INTENSIFYING SWLY LLJ SHOULD MAINTAIN CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OVERNIGHT WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS FROM WI NEWD INTO THE UP MI. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ...LOWER AND MID MS INTO TN VALLEYS... A CONVECTIVE LINE HAS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING FROM WRN TN SWD INTO CNTRL MS AHEAD OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM LIFTING NEWD THROUGH AR. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...00Z JAN SOUNDING INDICATED THAT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WERE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PARTICULARLY FROM CNTRL/NRN MS ACROSS WRN TN INTO WRN KY. ..MEAD.. 06/18/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 18 05:51:38 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 18 Jun 2006 01:51:38 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 180548 SWODY1 SPC AC 180546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 AM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NEB AND IA... ...SYNOPSIS... ACTIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD AS GREAT PLAINS TROUGH WEAKENS AND IS GRADUALLY ABSORBED INTO INTENSIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THIS REGIME...VORTICITY MAXIMUM CURRENTLY OVER AR WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NNEWD INTO THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY/S-CNTRL GREAT LAKES BY AFTERNOON...WHILE STRONGER IMPULSE NOW OVER ERN NEB/KS SHIFTS ESEWD TOWARD THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE IN THE W...EVOLVING TROUGH OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NW COAST WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE PACIFIC NW LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO MID MO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD TODAY...REACHING THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES SWD INTO MID MS VALLEY LATER TODAY. ELSEWHERE...A SECONDARY...WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS /IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING OUT OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/ INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF NEB AND IA BY EARLY EVENING. ...CNTRL GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. SSWLY LLJ WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORTING NWD ADVECTION OF THIS RICHER MOISTURE INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STEEP...DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH THIS MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...TO 500-1000 J/KG OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES. WHILE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TODAY WITHIN THIS MOIST...DEEP SWLY FLOW...LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONCENTRATED SEVERE WEATHER OVER TWO AREAS: IND/WRN OH INTO LOWER MI AND FROM THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS RIVERS SWD INTO NRN PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOW OVER AR IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY LIFT NNEWD...REACHING IND/WRN OH/LOWER MI BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ASSOCIATED BELT OF 45-55 KTS MID-LEVEL WINDS OVERSPREADING REGION. WHILE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE QUITE MOIST WITH MODEST INSTABILITY...FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL LIKELY FOCUS A CONCENTRATED CLUSTER OF STORMS AHEAD OF EWD-MOVING FRONTAL ZONE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. FARTHER S...A SECONDARY CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH MO/NRN AR. WHILE WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER THAN POINTS TO THE N...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER...SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...NEB/IA... ONLY MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /I.E. 50-55 F DEWPOINTS/ IS FORECAST TODAY ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AHEAD OF WEAK FRONT SHIFTING SWD OUT OF SD/SRN MN. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATED STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. SURFACE-BASED TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG NWRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS OVER SRN SD OR NRN NEB AS 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NW. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH ERN NEB INTO WRN AND CNTRL IA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FORECAST WIND PROFILES INDICATE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL 40-50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED...WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD...THOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO CNTRL/SRN IA TONIGHT PRIOR TO WEAKENING AS THE AIR MASS SLOWLY COOLS AND STABILIZES. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 06/18/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 01:15:54 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 18 Jun 2006 21:15:54 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 181239 SWODY1 SPC AC 181238 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0738 AM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NEB/IA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...MAIN SURFACE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM WI INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...AS WELL AS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ACROSS PARTS OF NEB/IA. ...TX COAST THIS MORNING... REMNANT NOCTURNAL MCS IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND AFFECTING THE TX GULF COAST. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT AHEAD OF STORMS...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED INTENSE CELLS AHEAD OF LEADING EDGE OF MCS. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES IN THIS REGION ARE RATHER WEAK...SUGGESTING MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING. ...MI/OH/IND... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS AR/WESTERN TN. THE FEATURE WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES STATES THIS AFTERNOON. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SUGGEST ONLY MINIMAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG/ DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL WINDS /AS STRONG AS 50 KNOTS AT 500MB/ AND APPROACHING TROUGH MAY ENHANCE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. ...KY/TN/AR/TX... ANOTHER AREA OF CONCENTRATED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM WESTERN KY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST TX. MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL ROTATE ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...FURTHER AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND ORGANIZATION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STEEP. HOWEVER...AMPLE MOISTURE AND STRONGER HEATING THAN FARTHER NORTH WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE OVER 1500 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP 21-00Z FROM NORTHERN AR INTO SOUTHEAST MO. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. ...NEB/IA... ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN WY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY BY 00Z. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS WEAK IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...STRONG UPPER FORCING AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BEFORE 00Z. SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..HART/TAYLOR.. 06/18/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 01:15:55 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 18 Jun 2006 21:15:55 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 182012 SWODY1 SPC AC 182010 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS LOWER OH TO LOWER TN VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NEB INTO SWRN IA/FAR NWRN MO... ...MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER IL/SERN MO WITH THIS FEATURE PROGGED MOVE EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDED SWD FROM SERN WI THROUGH CENTRAL IL TO SERN MO AND CENTRAL/SWRN AR. AIR MASS HAD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG/ IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF MID LEVEL IMPULSE FROM CENTRAL IL INTO SERN MO. 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MULTICELLULAR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM IL INTO WRN KY INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION AND ATTENDANT ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EWD IN ADVANCE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES. MEANWHILE...ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EXTENDING FROM SWRN IND INTO NWRN TN WILL PROGRESS ENEWD INTO NRN TN/CENTRAL KY TO SWRN OH AIDED BY ESTABLISHED COLD POOL AND ASCENT AHEAD OF MID MS VALLEY IMPULSE. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...40 KT WLY WINDS AT 1-2 KM AGL PER FORT CAMPBELL WSR-88D VAD SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS... SRN EXTENT OF MS VALLEY TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING E OF THIS TROUGH OVER MS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 90 WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG/...GIVEN MODEST LAPSE RATES /6.5 C/KM/. GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER... MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM MS INTO SWRN TN MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION THIS EVENING. ...NEB/IA... EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH/COOL FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY WSWWD THROUGH CENTRAL NEB TO A MESOLOW NEAR LBF. SURFACE HEATING S OF THIS TROUGH WITHIN AXIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500 J/KG...WITH RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGESTING INHIBITION IS BECOMING WEAKER. 40-50 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING MID MO VALLEY IMPULSE AND AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING SEWD INTO UPPER MS VALLEY IS RESULTING IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORMS. 18Z RUC SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY AROUND 21Z IN VICINITY OF MESOLOW WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM MESOSCALE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1233. INITIAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ACROSS ERN NEB/SWRN IA INTO NRN MO PER INCREASING WAA ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ. HAIL SHOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...SERN WI/FAR NERN IL... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER SERN WI/FAR NERN IL WHICH IS LIKELY AIDING ONGOING LINE OF STORMS ALONG NRN EXTENT OF SURFACE TROUGH INTO SERN WI. MUCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG COMBINED WITH 20-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS. LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ROTATION WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. GIVEN SMALL AREAL COVERAGE AND SHORT DURATION OF THREAT WILL NOT INTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK. ..PETERS.. 06/18/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 01:15:58 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 18 Jun 2006 21:15:58 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 182209 SWODY1 SPC AC 182207 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0507 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006 VALID 182205Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NEB/SRN-ERN IA/NRN IL/SRN-ERN WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER OH INTO LOWER TN VALLEYS... AMENDED TO ADD A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS ERN IA/NWRN IL INTO PARTS OF SRN/ERN WI ...ERN IA/NWRN IL INTO WI... REGIONAL RADARS/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL U.P. OF MI SSWWD THROUGH CENTRAL-SWRN WI INTO ERN IA. AIR MASS ALONG/E OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO UPPER MS VALLEY AND IN ADVANCE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSE...NOW LOCATED OVER NRN IA...WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. STRENGTHENING WLY MID LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL RESULT IN INCREASING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FOR STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS INTO THE EVENING. WSR-88D VAD AT DVN INDICATED LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE FOR STORM ROTATION SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. GIVEN TIME OF DAY AND THE EVENTUAL ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY 02-03Z. ...PREVIOUS 20Z DISCUSSION... ...MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER IL/SERN MO WITH THIS FEATURE PROGGED MOVE EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDED SWD FROM SERN WI THROUGH CENTRAL IL TO SERN MO AND CENTRAL/SWRN AR. AIR MASS HAD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG/ IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF MID LEVEL IMPULSE FROM CENTRAL IL INTO SERN MO. 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MULTICELLULAR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM IL INTO WRN KY INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION AND ATTENDANT ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EWD IN ADVANCE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES. MEANWHILE...ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EXTENDING FROM SWRN IND INTO NWRN TN WILL PROGRESS ENEWD INTO NRN TN/CENTRAL KY TO SWRN OH AIDED BY ESTABLISHED COLD POOL AND ASCENT AHEAD OF MID MS VALLEY IMPULSE. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...40 KT WLY WINDS AT 1-2 KM AGL PER FORT CAMPBELL WSR-88D VAD SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS... SRN EXTENT OF MS VALLEY TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING E OF THIS TROUGH OVER MS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 90 WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG/...GIVEN MODEST LAPSE RATES /6.5 C/KM/. GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER... MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM MS INTO SWRN TN MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION THIS EVENING. ...NEB/IA... EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH/COOL FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY WSWWD THROUGH CENTRAL NEB TO A MESOLOW NEAR LBF. SURFACE HEATING S OF THIS TROUGH WITHIN AXIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500 J/KG...WITH RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGESTING INHIBITION IS BECOMING WEAKER. 40-50 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING MID MO VALLEY IMPULSE AND AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING SEWD INTO UPPER MS VALLEY IS RESULTING IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORMS. 18Z RUC SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY AROUND 21Z IN VICINITY OF MESOLOW WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM MESOSCALE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1233. INITIAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ACROSS ERN NEB/SWRN IA INTO NRN MO PER INCREASING WAA ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ. HAIL SHOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..PETERS.. 06/18/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 01:15:57 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 18 Jun 2006 21:15:57 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 181617 SWODY1 SPC AC 181615 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LOWER OH TO WRN TN VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN NEB INTO WRN IA... ...CENTRAL U.S... MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER MO WILL ACCELERATE EWD INTO OH VALLEY TODAY AS STRONGER SYSTEM UPSTREAM DROPS ESEWD ACROSS UPR MS VALLEY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE MODULATED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS/PCPN AND GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED AHEAD OF MO TROUGH. DEEP LAYER SHEAR RANGES DOWNWARD FROM 30-40KT ACROSS MI TO GENERALLY 25KT OR LESS WRN TN VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR NOTED ON W/V IMAGERY ROTATING EWD ACROSS MO INTO LOWER OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF TROUGH FOR MDT INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. PLUME OF 70F PLUS DEWPOINTS THAT EXTENDS NNEWD LOWER MS VALLEY INTO LOWER OH VALLEY. WITH SURFACE TEMPS RISING THRU THE MID 80S...MLCAPE COULD CLIMB TO 2000 J/KG VICINITY CONFLUENCE OF OH AND MS RIVERS. GIVEN THE WEAK LAPSE RATES...GENERALLY LESS THAN 6C/KM AND ONLY MODEST SHEAR...SURFACE BASED STORMS THAT DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON FROM LOWER OH TO WRN TN VALLEY EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY MULTICELL. WIND DAMAGE IN THE FORM OF WET DOWNBURSTS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT THREAT AS THERMODYNAMICS DO NOT SUPPORT LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE LFC'S SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1500M WITH SOME HELICITY IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE HODOGRAPH. ...NE/IA... RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE SPREADING EWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS AS FAR S AS NEB ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV TROUGH MOVING THRU UPPER MS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE HAS DECREASED WITH WLY FLOW ACROSS PLAINS...THE STRONG HEATING...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTS CONTINUING THE LOW END SLIGHT RISK CURRENTLY ERN NE INTO IA BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH DCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SUPPORTING WIND DAMAGE THREAT. WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK...FAVORABLE SHEAR IN CLOUD BEARING LAYER DOES SUPPORT SUPERCELL POTENTIAL ENHANCING LARGE HAIL THREAT. SURFACE BASED STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON ERN NEB WHERE INHIBITION WEAKENS AND MLCAPES CLIMB TO NEAR 1000 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE E/SEWD INTO IA BY EARLY TONIGHT. ..HALES/GRAMS.. 06/18/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 06:00:51 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2006 02:00:51 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 190559 SWODY1 SPC AC 190558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NRN APPALACHIANS AND NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID MO VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 40-50 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING WHILE UPSTREAM 50-60 KT JET STREAK OVER THE MIDWEST DIGS SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. MEANWHILE IN THE W...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH AN ACCOMPANYING BELT OF 40-50 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADING ACROSS SAME REGION. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...WEAK SURFACE FRONT FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO TN VALLEY WILL PUSH EWD TODAY...REACHING NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE DELMARVA BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM BOUNDARY WILL SAG SWD FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY TOWARD THE OH RIVER BY TONIGHT. OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER NERN WY BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS COLD FRONT PUSHES EWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. ...NORTHEASTERN STATES... BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP-LAYER FORCING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS /I.E. DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE 60S/ WILL SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION OF DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS NY/PA INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG. EXPECT REINTENSIFICATION OR RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG OR AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS THIS DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. DEEP...SWLY TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WITH 35-45 KTS OF SPEED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH SEVERE HAIL. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL SPREAD EWD INTO WRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING...AND SWD THROUGH ERN PA/NJ AND SERN NY...WITH STORMS GRADUALLY WEAKENING OR MOVING OFFSHORE THEREAFTER. ...OH VALLEY... ADDITIONAL BROKEN LINES OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF OH/IND/IL THIS AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM JET STREAK AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM DIG SEWD TOWARD THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SWLY/WLY. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT AFTERNOON MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS GIVEN 40-45 KTS OF DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS TSTMS APPROACH THE OH RIVER. ...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO MID MO VALLEY... AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY OVER WRN PORTIONS OF SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH DEWPOINTS OF 40-45 F. HOWEVER...STEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 500 J/KG. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATER TODAY OVER SWRN MT/NWRN WY AS LOW-LEVEL OROGRAPHIC FORCING N OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW COUPLES WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OVER NRN WY/CNTRL AND ERN MT WITH AN MCS EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS TONIGHT. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVOLVING MCS OVER CNTRL SD INTO WRN OR CNTRL IA WITHIN INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. NAM AND 4-KM WRF NMM GUIDANCE BOTH INDICATE A SECONDARY ZONE OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITHIN UPSLOPE REGION OF ERN WY INTO NERN CO THIS AFTERNOON. HERE...BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /I.E. LOWER TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS/ WILL SUPPORT STRONGER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WITHIN THE FIST FEW HOURS OF INITIATION. A SECOND MCS MAY EVOLVE FROM THIS ACTIVITY WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT SPREADING EWD INTO WRN AND CNTRL NEB OVERNIGHT. ..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 06/19/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 12:34:53 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2006 08:34:53 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 191234 SWODY1 SPC AC 191232 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES...INTO THE MIDWEST... ...NY/PA/NEW ENGLAND... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW. ONE VORT MAX IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL OH AND SHOULD TRACK EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NY BY AROUND 18Z. EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES FROM NY/PA AND NEW ENGLAND SHOW MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TODAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THIS REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. MINIMAL CAP AND UPWARD FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS /30-45 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW/ SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS. LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT HAIL THREAT. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL NY/PA AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND BEFORE SUNSET. ...IL/IND/OH... SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE ACROSS THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-10 TO -12C AT 500MB/...WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG/FAVORABLE FOR MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIKELY LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS. THOSE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...MT/NERN WY/WRN DAKOTAS... SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ORE/ID. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO MT/WY THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE PLAINS OF EASTERN MT/NORTHEAST WY WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WESTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE EAST OF A BIL-SHR LINE. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES. ACTIVITY MAY MAINTAIN SEVERE INTENSITY INTO SOUTHWEST ND AND WESTERN SD DURING THE EVENING/NIGHT AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. ...NERN CO/SERN WY/WRN NEB... EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IS IN PLACE TODAY OVER EASTERN CO AND SOUTHEAST WY. STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG AND ONLY WEAK CAP. PRESENT INDICATION ARE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE FOOTHILLS/LARAMIE RANGE AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS PORTRAY VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS. 40+ DEGREE T-TD SPREADS WILL LIKELY PROMOTE HIGH-BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. BRIEF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF SUFFICIENT COVERAGE OF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS OCCUR. ...ERN SD/ERN NEB/WRN IA... CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVES OUT OF SOUTHEAST MT WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO CENTRAL SD/NEB AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL FEED THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH OTHER STORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF PRIMARY MCS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS IN THIS ACTIVITY. ..HART/CROSBIE.. 06/19/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 13:22:04 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2006 09:22:04 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 191321 SWODY1 SPC AC 191319 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0819 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES...INTO THE MIDWEST... ...NY/PA/NEW ENGLAND... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW. ONE VORT MAX IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL OH AND SHOULD TRACK EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NY BY AROUND 18Z. EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES FROM NY/PA AND NEW ENGLAND SHOW MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TODAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THIS REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. MINIMAL CAP AND UPWARD FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS /30-45 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW/ SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS. LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT HAIL THREAT. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL NY/PA AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND BEFORE SUNSET. ...IL/IND/OH... SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE ACROSS THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-10 TO -12C AT 500MB/...WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG/FAVORABLE FOR MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIKELY LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS. THOSE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...MT/NERN WY/WRN DAKOTAS... SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ORE/ID. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO MT/WY THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE PLAINS OF EASTERN MT/NORTHEAST WY WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WESTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE EAST OF A BIL-SHR LINE. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES. ACTIVITY MAY MAINTAIN SEVERE INTENSITY INTO SOUTHWEST ND AND WESTERN SD DURING THE EVENING/NIGHT AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. ...NERN CO/SERN WY/WRN NEB... EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IS IN PLACE TODAY OVER EASTERN CO AND SOUTHEAST WY. STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG AND ONLY WEAK CAP. PRESENT INDICATION ARE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE FOOTHILLS/LARAMIE RANGE AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS PORTRAY VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS. 40+ DEGREE T-TD SPREADS WILL LIKELY PROMOTE HIGH-BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. BRIEF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF SUFFICIENT COVERAGE OF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS OCCUR. ...ERN SD/ERN NEB/WRN IA... CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVES OUT OF SOUTHEAST MT WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO CENTRAL SD/NEB AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL FEED THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH OTHER STORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF PRIMARY MCS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS IN THIS ACTIVITY. ..HART/CROSBIE.. 06/19/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 16:18:57 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2006 12:18:57 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 191618 SWODY1 SPC AC 191616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES...INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLVING INTO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS NRN CONUS WITH EMBEDDED S/WV TROUGHS. ONE IMPULSE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS NERN U.S THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING S/WV WRN GREAT LAKES MOVING ESEWD ACROSS OH VALLEY CROSSING APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT. FURTHER UPSTREAM TROUGH PAC NW DEAMPLIFIES AND QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS NRN ROCKIES TO NRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z TUE. ...NERN U.S... MOIST AND MDT TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NERN U.S. AHEAD OF S/WV TROUGH MOVING ENEWD CURRENTLY WRN NY/PA. WITH 35-40KT OF PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO 2500 J/KG...THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG AND AHEAD OF CURRENT BAND OF CONVECTION FROM WRN NY SWWD. GIVEN ONLY MODEST LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR...PRIMARY STORM MODE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LINE SEGMENTS/BOW WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL VEERING FOR ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH EITHER BOWS OR SUPERCELLS THAT COULD DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR. SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND EWD REACHING NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING PRIOR TO WEAKENING AS THEY ENCOUNTER MARINE AIR MASS. ...OH VALLEY EWD TO APPALACHIANS... LEADING EDGE OF DRIER AND A LITTLE COOLER AIR EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI SWWD TO CENTRAL IL AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SEWD. S/WV TROUGH NOTED IN W/V IMAGERY CURRENTLY MOVING ESEWD WITH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL 50KT WIND MAX AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL CROSS OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WITH MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG...LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND 35-40KT OF SHEAR...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS. ...NRN ROCKIES EWD ACROSS ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL AHEAD OF APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH THE COMBINATION OF STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND 50-60KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT...WILL INITIATE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER TERRAIN SRN MT/NRN BORDER AREAS OF WY. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE A THREAT WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SERN MT AND EVENTUALLY INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS. ...E SLOPES CO/WY... SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW SPREADING MOISTURE INTO ERN WY/WRN NE/SD. STRONG HEATING AND FAVORABLE VEERING SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT GIVEN EXPECTED MLCAPES TO AT LEAST 1000 J/KG FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP OFF HIGHER TERRAIN NERN CO/ERN WY DURING AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS SD/NE OVERNIGHT UNDER A FAVORABLE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 50KT KS INTO NEB. ..HALES/GRAMS.. 06/19/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 18:43:54 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2006 14:43:54 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 191843 SWODY1 SPC AC 191841 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 2 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0141 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES...INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLVING INTO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS NRN CONUS WITH EMBEDDED S/WV TROUGHS. ONE IMPULSE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS NERN U.S THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING S/WV WRN GREAT LAKES MOVING ESEWD ACROSS OH VALLEY CROSSING APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT. FURTHER UPSTREAM TROUGH PAC NW DEAMPLIFIES AND QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS NRN ROCKIES TO NRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z TUE. ...NERN U.S... MOIST AND MDT TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NERN U.S. AHEAD OF S/WV TROUGH MOVING ENEWD CURRENTLY WRN NY/PA. WITH 35-40KT OF PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO 2500 J/KG...THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG AND AHEAD OF CURRENT BAND OF CONVECTION FROM WRN NY SWWD. GIVEN ONLY MODEST LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR...PRIMARY STORM MODE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LINE SEGMENTS/BOW WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL VEERING FOR ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH EITHER BOWS OR SUPERCELLS THAT COULD DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR. SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND EWD REACHING NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING PRIOR TO WEAKENING AS THEY ENCOUNTER MARINE AIR MASS. ...OH VALLEY EWD TO APPALACHIANS... LEADING EDGE OF DRIER AND A LITTLE COOLER AIR EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI SWWD TO CENTRAL IL AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SEWD. S/WV TROUGH NOTED IN W/V IMAGERY CURRENTLY MOVING ESEWD WITH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL 50KT WIND MAX AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL CROSS OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WITH MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG...LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND 35-40KT OF SHEAR...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS. ...NRN ROCKIES EWD ACROSS ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL AHEAD OF APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH THE COMBINATION OF STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND 50-60KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT...WILL INITIATE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER TERRAIN SRN MT/NRN BORDER AREAS OF WY. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE A THREAT WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SERN MT AND EVENTUALLY INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS. ...E SLOPES CO/WY... SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW SPREADING MOISTURE INTO ERN WY/WRN NE/SD. STRONG HEATING AND FAVORABLE VEERING SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT GIVEN EXPECTED MLCAPES TO AT LEAST 1000 J/KG FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP OFF HIGHER TERRAIN NERN CO/ERN WY DURING AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS SD/NE OVERNIGHT UNDER A FAVORABLE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 50KT KS INTO NEB. ..HALES/GRAMS.. 06/19/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 19 19:47:06 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2006 15:47:06 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 191946 SWODY1 SPC AC 191944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID MO VALLEY... ...NERN U.S... AN ELONGATED SQUALL LINE HAS DEVELOPED FROM NRN VT...SWWD INTO ERN PA...MOVING EAST AT ROUGHLY 35KT. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAS PROVEN INSTRUMENTAL IN SQUALL LINE INTENSIFICATION AS LOWEST 3KM LAPSE RATES ARE NOW ROUGHLY 8C/KM OVER MOST OF NEW ENGLAND. ADDITIONALLY...CONTINUED SUNSHINE AND 40KT MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW SHOULD FORCE THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY. CONVECTION MAY APPROACH COASTAL ME/NH/MA BY 00Z GIVEN THE CURRENT SPEED/MOVEMENT. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY EVOLVE AHEAD OF THIS LINE IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WILL BE NOTED WITH THE MCS. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... TWO SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE EVOLVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON. NRN MOST ORGANIZED CLUSTER IS CURRENTLY OVER SRN ONTARIO BUT WILL SOON SPREAD ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NY...SWWD ALONG THE OH SHORELINE. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF DEVELOPING BOW ECHO OVER WRN LAKE ERIE...ALTHOUGH EXTENT OF LAKE INFLUENCES HAVE YET TO BE DETERMINED. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE CLEVELAND METRO AREA BY 21Z. STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO THE BUF REGION NEAR 21Z AS WELL GIVEN THE ORGANIZED NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER ONTARIO. FARTHER SOUTH...A SEVERE CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CNTRL IND...SPREADING SEWD TOWARD THE OH RIVER AS UPPER FLOW VEERS WITH TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD APPROACH LUK OVER THE NEXT HOUR WITH THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ...NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... STRONG HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN HAS FINALLY FORCED PARCELS TO THEIR LFC FROM SWRN MT INTO NWRN WY....AND SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE INTO CNTRL CO. NRN MOST ACTIVITY IS AIDED BY A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM EXPANSION THIS EVENING AS STORMS SPREAD OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO MORE FAVORABLE...YET RECOVERING...BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS. RAPID LLJ INTENSIFICATION FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO SERN MT SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE THE UPWARD EVOLVING MCS CLUSTERS AS THEY SPREAD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS MAY ALSO GENERATE ELEVATED...POTENTIALLY SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB INTO THE MID MO VALLEY REGION. ..DARROW.. 06/19/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 20 20:11:27 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2006 16:11:27 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 202009 SWODY1 SPC AC 202008 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO SRN WI/NRN IL... ...NEW ENGLAND... LOOSE SQUALL LINE HAS EMERGED FROM NWRN ME...SWWD INTO CNTRL NH. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING ESEWD AT ROUGHLY 25KT AND SHOULD APPROACH THE ME COAST BY 00Z. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND/OR BE OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH THE ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL OR LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED FARTHER SW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO NERN PA/NRN NJ. ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY REGION... CONVECTIVE CARCASS FROM OVERNIGHT MCS HAS PROGRESSED ACROSS IA INTO NRN IL WHERE A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE SURVIVED ALONG LEADING EDGE...LARGELY DRIVEN BY LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. AIRMASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN IL IS NOW UNCAPPED...AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE. IT/S NOT PARTICULARLY CLEAR WHETHER NEW UPDRAFTS CAN DEVELOP ALONG SRN FRINGE OF OLD MCS CLOUD SHIELD...IF SO VERTICAL SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINING ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF GENERATING SOME HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SWRN/WRN PORTIONS OF THIS CLOUD CANOPY FROM NERN KS/ERN NEB INTO CNTRL IA. VERY STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS INTO IA. SFC PARCELS WILL REQUIRE CONTINUED HEATING FOR CAP REMOVAL BASED ON LATEST DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS. VERY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE DEVELOPED UPSTREAM ACROSS WRN/CNTRL KS WHERE READINGS ARE NOW APPROACHING 100 F NEAR RSL. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG DRY LINE DUE TO THE INTENSE SFC HEATING...LATEST THINKING IS SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SWLY TRAJECTORIES THROUGH 850MB WILL AGITATE ERN EDGE OF CAP ATOP RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER SWRN IA LATER THIS EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE FROM CNTRL IA...SWWD INTO SERN NEB BY 00Z. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD UPWARD EVOLVE INTO MCS CLUSTER WITH TIME EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO SWRN WI/NWRN IL LATER TONIGHT. FARTHER WEST...HIGH BASED CU AND DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM SERN WY INTO CNTRL CO ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS NELY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT MAINTAINS/MOISTENS CNTRL HIGH PLAINS REGION. SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO AN MCS OVER WRN/SWRN NEB LATE THIS EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..DARROW.. 06/20/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 00:58:44 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2006 20:58:44 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 210057 SWODY1 SPC AC 210056 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND WRN GREAT LAKES... ...WRN SD INTO ERN CO/WRN KS... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE IN PROGRESS FROM SWRN SD INTO NERN CO WITHIN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES AS HIGH AS 3000-3500 J/KG PER LBF SOUNDING. ELY TO NELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A TORNADO OR TWO ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH ANY RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL MEMBERS...PARTICULARLY OVER FAR NERN CO INTO SWRN NEB. STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A MCS WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND SEVERE HAIL THREAT SPREADING EWD ACROSS NEB AND NRN KS TONIGHT. OTHER SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HIGH WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL MAY DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE FRONT OVER W-CNTRL INTO N-CNTRL KS...ESPECIALLY AS LLJ INCREASES THIS EVENING AND EFFECTIVELY ENHANCES CONVERGENCE WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE. ...CNTRL/ERN NEB EWD/NEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES... COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN EXISTS EWD INTO THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING AS A RESULT OF OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER MCS WHICH HAS SINCE DECAYED. ERN EXTENSION OF NWRN KS COLD FRONT STRETCHES NEWD THROUGH S-CNTRL NEB TO NWRN IA...WHERE IT BECOMES MORE QUASI-STATIONARY INTO SRN MN. EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM INTERSECTION WITH COLD/STATIONARY FRONT OVER NWRN IA SEWD TO NEAR DSM AND INTO N-CNTRL MO. A SECONDARY NW-SE BOUNDARY ALSO EXTENDS FROM NEAR DSM SEWD THROUGH SERN IA THROUGH CNTRL IL INTO SWRN IND. 00Z OMA SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT AIR MASS HAS BECOME WEAKLY CAPPED WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 3000 J/KG. DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG ANY OF THESE ABOVE-MENTIONED BOUNDARIES...THOUGH STORM INITIATION APPEARS MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN IA SERN MN INTO WI AND IL AS SWLY LLJ INCREASES...ENHANCING ISENTROPIC ASCENT NE/E OF FRONTAL ZONE. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ELEVATED ABOVE STABLE SURFACE LAYER E OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES...THOUGH A FEW SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY ANCHOR WHERE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES STILL EXISTS GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS THREAT SPREADING E OF LAKE MI LATE TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EXPANDING WAA PATTERN. FARTHER TO THE W OVER CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO WRN IA...STORMS MAY EITHER DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING AS LLJ INCREASES...OR MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE W LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 45-55 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO. ...NEW ENGLAND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY... CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OVER ERN NH INTO SWRN ME...AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF MA/CT/RI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS CONVECTION IS WITHIN ZONE OF RELATIVELY STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE AND HUDSON VALLEYS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH 02Z WITH STORMS WEAKENING THEREAFTER. ..MEAD.. 06/21/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 06:00:52 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 02:00:52 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 210600 SWODY1 SPC AC 210558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI...MUCH OF NRN IL...NRN IND AND NWRN OH... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... BELT OF 40-60KT...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A REGION OF HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THIS SAME GENERAL AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. A LOWER LATITUDE IMPULSE NOW OVER NEB WILL TRANSLATE EWD TODAY...REACHING THE SWRN GREAT LAKES BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE HUDSON VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...WEAK WARM FRONT FROM N-CNTRL IA INTO SWRN IND WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY MORE QUASI-STATIONARY AND W-E ORIENTED FROM NRN IL THROUGH SRN IA/NRN MO AND NERN INTO W-CNTRL KS. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING. ...GREAT LAKES WWD INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY... AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS ANTICIPATED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES WHERE THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST. MCS CURRENTLY EVOLVING OVER NEB WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP EWD THROUGH IA PRIOR TO 21/12Z...DRIVEN LARGELY BY LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG 40-45 KT SWLY LLJ. THOUGH SOME DIURNAL WEAKENING MAY OCCUR... RE-INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COMPRISING MCS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF ERN IA/SRN WI/NRN IL. THEREAFTER...INTENSIFYING MCS SHOULD RAPIDLY MOVE EWD THROUGH NRN IND...CNTRL AND SRN LOWER MI AND NRN OH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PERHAPS AS FAR E AS WRN AND CNTRL PA/NY OVERNIGHT. A MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WITHIN INFLOW AIR MASS OVER CNTRL IL INTO NRN AND CNTRL PART OF IND/OH. THIS INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH 40-50 KT DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES CAPABLE OF CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING ALONG SRN FLANK OF LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL BACKBUILDING STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM SRN IA/NRN MO WWD INTO NRN KS ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OR COMPOSITE BOUNDARY MODULATED BY MCS OUTFLOW. GIVEN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG/ AND 30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER SEVERE STORMS WITH HIGH WINDS/HAIL MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF WI...PERHAPS WWD INTO MN ALONG COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD THROUGH AREA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ACROSS PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS OWING TO RESIDUAL CONVECTIVELY-PROCESSED FROM EARLIER MCS. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S/...COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ FROM VICINITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY NWD INTO POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL LARGELY DRIVE DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY DISCERNIBLE IMPULSES IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG /20-25 KTS/...THOUGH ELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN 30-35 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER WRN KS TONIGHT. THE DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST SWD TO THE RATON MESA AREA AND SECONDARY SURFACE LOW OVER THE NWRN TX PNHDL WITHIN HOTTER AND DEEPER MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER ENVIRONMENT. ..MEAD.. 06/21/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 11:58:27 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 07:58:27 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 211157 SWODY1 SPC AC 211156 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST IA...ACROSS NORTHERN IL...NORTHERN IND...SOUTHERN LOWER MI...AND NORTHWEST OH... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... FAST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS PRESENT TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NATION...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN AXIS OF ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER TODAY FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ...UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES... LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS IS AFFECTING PARTS OF EASTERN IA/NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE IN REGION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS. CELLS ALONG THIS AXIS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO LOWER MI. MEANWHILE...COMPACT VORT MAX IS SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE OVER EASTERN NEB. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE MO/IA BORDER AND INTO NORTHERN IL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INITIATE FURTHER CONVECTION BY LATE MORNING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING STORMS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE WITH A RISK OF SUPERCELLS...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...FAVORABLE KINEMATIC FIELDS...AND APPROACHING TROUGH SUGGEST THAT ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR UPSCALE ORGANIZATION OF SYSTEM DURING THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN LOWER MI/NORTHERN IND/NORTHWEST OH. WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS AXIS...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. IF ACTIVITY CAN BECOME SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED...DERECHO MAY PERSIST INTO WESTERN NY OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE PRESENT AGAIN THIS MORNING OVER THE PLAINS OF CO. THIS REGIME IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...BENEATH RELATIVELY FAST WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL FORM BY MID AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS BY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS EASTERN CO AND NORTHEAST NM SHOW VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FIELDS FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AS STORMS SPREAD INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEB...WESTERN KS...AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. FAST-MOVING MCS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL KS. ..HART/CROSBIE.. 06/21/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 16:40:35 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 12:40:35 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 211639 SWODY1 SPC AC 211637 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN IA INTO NRN AND CENTRAL IL...NRN INDIANA AND THE SRN HALF OF LOWER MI INTO NRN OHIO.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDS THE MDT RISK AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ESEWD OVER THE SRN PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS AND THE SRN GREAT LAKES ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. MAIN FEATURES TO MONITOR TODAY WILL BE THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING FROM IA INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL SWING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MN SWD THROUGH NWRN IA INTO NWRN KS...AND A WEAK TROUGH/FRONT THAT TRAILS SWWD INTO S CENTRAL NM. AHEAD OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY PORTION OF THE FRONT THERE ARE SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES THAT EXTEND EWD ACROSS NRN IA TO A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS SEWD THROUGH SWRN OH. ...NRN HALF OF IL ENEWD THRU NRN OH... FIRST EMBEDDED WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN LOWER MI THRU TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE FORCING ALONG CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY DURING THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 35-45 KT IS EXPECTED FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NWD AND NEWD OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY THEN EWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL INITIALLY PROVIDE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION IN THE VICINITY OF THESE BOUNDARIES. AIR MASS IS PLENTY MOIST NOW WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND WITH ADDED DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS. ANALYSIS OF RUC/NAM POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MLCAPES WILL BE BETWEEN 2500 AND 3100 J/KG BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN LOWER MI...NRN INDIANA AND NRN OH WITH 850/700 MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5/8.0 C/KM. THUS...EXPECT AREA OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAIN THREATS BEING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...THE PRESENCE OF SOME SPEED SHEAR AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...WOULD NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL IL INTO NRN OH. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW/MID 60S DEW POINTS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EASTWARD ACCOMPANIED BY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH NWRN MN. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER NERN MN AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO SWWD AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO WRN UPPER MI AND NWRN WI. MODELS INDICATE STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND STRONG MID LEVEL DRYING ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. AIR MASS THROUGH CENTRAL WI INTO WRN UPPER MI IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1500 AND 1800 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS CENTRAL NEB AND CENTRAL KS... MODELS GENERATE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF CO EARLY THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING ALONG QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM EXTREME NWRN MO INTO THE WRN OK PANHANDLE AND WILL ENHANCE ELY/UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE AREA TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S LEADING TO INSTABILITY BETWEEN 1800 AND 2500 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP INTO CLUSTER/MCS TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL INTO CENTRAL KS/PARTS OF CENTRAL NEB TONIGHT. ..MCCARTHY.. 06/21/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 16:54:40 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 12:54:40 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 211653 SWODY1 SPC AC 211652 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN IA INTO NRN AND CENTRAL IL...NRN INDIANA AND THE SRN HALF OF LOWER MI INTO NRN OHIO.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDS THE MDT RISK AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... CORRECTED FOR SWRN TO SERN IA... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ESEWD OVER THE SRN PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS AND THE SRN GREAT LAKES ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. MAIN FEATURES TO MONITOR TODAY WILL BE THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING FROM IA INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL SWING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MN SWD THROUGH NWRN IA INTO NWRN KS...AND A WEAK TROUGH/FRONT THAT TRAILS SWWD INTO S CENTRAL NM. AHEAD OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY PORTION OF THE FRONT THERE ARE SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES THAT EXTEND EWD ACROSS NRN IA TO A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS SEWD THROUGH SWRN OH. ...NRN HALF OF IL ENEWD THRU NRN OH... FIRST EMBEDDED WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN LOWER MI THRU TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE FORCING ALONG CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY DURING THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 35-45 KT IS EXPECTED FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NWD AND NEWD OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY THEN EWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL INITIALLY PROVIDE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION IN THE VICINITY OF THESE BOUNDARIES. AIR MASS IS PLENTY MOIST NOW WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND WITH ADDED DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS. ANALYSIS OF RUC/NAM POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MLCAPES WILL BE BETWEEN 2500 AND 3100 J/KG BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN LOWER MI...NRN INDIANA AND NRN OH WITH 850/700 MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5/8.0 C/KM. THUS...EXPECT AREA OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAIN THREATS BEING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...THE PRESENCE OF SOME SPEED SHEAR AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...WOULD NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL IL INTO NRN OH. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW/MID 60S DEW POINTS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EASTWARD ACCOMPANIED BY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH NWRN MN. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER NERN MN AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO SWWD AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO WRN UPPER MI AND NWRN WI. MODELS INDICATE STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND STRONG MID LEVEL DRYING ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. AIR MASS THROUGH CENTRAL WI INTO WRN UPPER MI IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1500 AND 1800 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS CENTRAL NEB AND CENTRAL KS... MODELS GENERATE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF CO EARLY THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING ALONG QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM EXTREME NWRN MO INTO THE WRN OK PANHANDLE AND WILL ENHANCE ELY/UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE AREA TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S LEADING TO INSTABILITY BETWEEN 1800 AND 2500 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP INTO CLUSTER/MCS TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL INTO CENTRAL KS/PARTS OF CENTRAL NEB TONIGHT. ..MCCARTHY.. 06/21/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 21 20:07:28 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 16:07:28 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 212005 SWODY1 SPC AC 212003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN IL TO WRN LAKE ERIE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES TO WRN NY... ...NRN IL TO LAKE ERIE... MOST NOTABLE CHANGE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA IS THE RAPID DESTABILIZATION FROM IND INTO WRN OH/SRN LOWER MI. THIS AIRMASS RECOVERY IS THE RESULT OF NW-SE ORIENTED WARM FRONT GRADUALLY RETREATING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS CU FIELD IS EXPANDING/DEEPENING ALONG THE IND/OH BORDER INTO SRN LOWER MI WHICH SHOULD EVOLVE INTO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS SUSTAINED IN THIS REGION. SHEAR PROFILES ARE STRONG...WITH SFC-6KM VALUES IN EXCESS OF 50-60KT. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY INITIATE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WHERE EXTREME INSTABILITY IS PRESSING EWD ALONG ZONE OF SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION. IF DISCRETE STORMS CAN INDEED DEVELOP...TORNADOES ARE CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY PRIOR TO MORE ORGANIZED MCS ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...VERY LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR. UPSTREAM...WEAK MVC REMAINS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER NERN IA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY ORGANIZING ALONG WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...TRAILING SWWD TO NEAR THE MO BORDER. DEEP WSWLY FLOW HAS SLOWED THE UPWARD GROWTH OF THIS ACTIVITY...BUT WITH TIME A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS...AND POSSIBLE DERECHO MAY EVOLVE AS CONVECTION SPREADS EWD ACROSS NRN IL TOWARD NRN IND/SRN LOWER MI LATER TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IF THIS EVOLUTION OCCURS. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY ALONG THE CNTRL/SRN FRONT RANGE OF CO AS NELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INCREASES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE MOISTENING CONTINUES...AND LLJ SHOULD INCREASE LATER TONIGHT. IT APPEARS MULTIPLE SUPERCELL CLUSTERS/MERGERS WILL EVOLVE OVER ERN CO/WRN KS LATER TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...VEERED LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE ORIENTATION FROM THE WRN TX PANHANDLE...NEWD INTO THE ERN OK PANHANDLE WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS TROUGH WITH READINGS NOW APPROACHING 100F. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH BASED BUT MAY ROOT INTO MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE JUST EAST OF THE DRY LINE...IF SO VERY LARGE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE OTHERWISE GUSTY DOWNDRAFT ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. ..DARROW.. 06/21/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 01:14:22 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2006 21:14:22 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 220114 SWODY1 SPC AC 220112 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0812 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES TO S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL BECOME MOST PROMINENT FEATURE ALOFT NOW THAT CYCLONE FARTHER E HAS LIFTED INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES. EMBEDDED IN BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW IS WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN SHORE OF LS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT ACCELERATES ENEWD ACROSS NRN ONT. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN MT AND WY -- SHOULD MOVE EWD TOWARD N-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. AT SFC...SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM E-CENTRAL UPPER MI AND ERN LS SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL IA AND CENTRAL KS...TO NRN TX PANHANDLE AND NERN NM. PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES ARE ANALYZED FROM NERN OH WWD ACROSS NRN INDIANA...WITH ANOTHER WEAK PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NERN KS ACROSS NRN MO AND N-CENTRAL IL. DRYLINE INTERSECTS FRONT OVER TX/NM BORDER AND EXTENDS SSWWD ACROSS SERN NM. ...SRN GREAT LAKES/MID/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION... CLUSTER OF TSTMS NOW OVER NWRN OH AND ADJACENT PORTIONS LE HAS YIELDED REPORTS OF DAMAGING WIND...HAIL...TORNADO AND FUNNEL CLOUDS. MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES FURTHER EWD ACROSS NRN OH AND LE SHORE DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL HAIL AND BRIEF TORNADOES POSSIBLE. LINE OF STG-SVR STMS ALSO IS MOVING EWD ATTM ACROSS NRN INDIANA. AT 2251Z...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE GUST WAS MEASURED WITH LATTER ACTIVITY ON INDIANA LAKESHORE...AND ADDITIONAL SEVERE GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED AS THIS CLUSTER AND/OR NWRN OH/WRN LE MCS MOVES ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING. REF WWS 530...532 AND 536...AS WELL AS ACCOMPANYING MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS...FOR LATEST NEAR-TERM FCST INFO. EXPECT MORE COHESIVE MCS TO CONSOLIDATE FROM THIS ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...AND TO TURN ESEWD OR SEWD...ESPECIALLY ON ITS SWRN END. THIS PROCESS SHOULD RESULT FROM PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT OF MCS MOTION...BACKBUILDING INTO 30-40 KT WLY LLJ. MEANWHILE COLD POOL DRIVEN VERTICAL CIRCULATION MAY DRIVE ERN PORTION OF ACTIVITY INTO NERN OH AND WRN PA WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...BEFORE THIS SEGMENT OF MCS MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR AND WEAKENS. ADDITIONAL /UPSCALE COLD POOL GROWTH MAY THEN OCCUR FARTHER SW ACROSS OH PORTION OF MCS WITH POTENTIAL MOTION ACROSS OH RIVER INTO PORTIONS WV AND/OR NERN KY OVERNIGHT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO SRN HIGH PLAINS... STG-SVR TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SEVERAL CLUSTERS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE...FROM ERN PORTIONS KS/NEB BORDER SWWD ACROSS TX PANHANDLE TO SERN NM. OTHER STG-SVR TSTMS ARE EVIDENT IN POSTFRONTAL/UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME OVER EXTREME ERN CO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO AREAS OF FAVORABLE BUOYANCY AND AT LEAST MRGLLY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR BOTH BOWS AND SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST AND SHIFT GENERALLY EWD OVER WRN/NERN KS...S-CENTRAL KS...ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES AND WRN/NRN OK DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH MOST SVR EVENTS CONSISTING OF HAIL AND GUSTS. REF SPC WWS 529...531...533...535...AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS..FOR NOWCAST INFO. SVR POTENTIAL ON MOST OF HIGH PLAINS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF SFC HEATING AND EXPANSION OF STABLE OUTFLOW POOLS...EXCEPT ACROSS NWRN KS. ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z OVER PORTIONS NRN MO/SRN IA AND PERHAPS NRN IL INVOF SFC FRONTAL ZONE. BOTH SFC-BASED AND ELEVATED BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH MOIST PROFILES FROM BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH 800 MB...AND ROUGHLY 8 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...PER LATEST RAOBS. SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS.. 06/22/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 06:04:47 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 02:04:47 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 220604 SWODY1 SPC AC 220602 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN NEE ENGLAND TO SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... BASIC UPPER AIR PATTERN IS FCST TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL ACROSS NRN HALF OF CONUS...AS CANADIAN MARITIMES TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM AREA. SRN RIM OF CYCLONIC FLOW -- ORBITING HUDSON BAY LOW -- WILL COVER PORTIONS GREAT LAKES BUT REMAIN LARGELY N OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE. FRONT ITSELF IS PROGGED TO BE QUASISTATIONARY OVER MOST OF ITS LENGTH AND TO EXTEND FROM ERN GREAT LAKES WSWWD ACROSS IL...MO...INTO NRN TX PANHANDLE OR OK PANHANDLE...AND SERN CO. HOWEVER...ACTUAL POSITION OF SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE SHUNTED FARTHER S IN MANY AREAS BY NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. TWO PRIMARY SEVERE AREAS WOULD BE FAVORED PURELY BY PATTERN RECOGNITION -- NERN CONUS AND CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS -- HOWEVER...THESE ALSO ARE BEING MOST STRONGLY AFFECTED ATTM BY LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES. MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES PREDOMINATE ATTM WITH STRONG CONDITIONAL DEPENDENCE OF SVR POTENTIAL ON BOUNDARY CHARACTER/ORIENTATION. WILL MAINTAIN BROAD AREA OF ESSENTIALLY CONSTANT PROBABILITIES ATTM...THOUGH A FEW RELATIVELY DENSE CONCENTRATIONS OF SVR ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THIS BROAD CORRIDOR. ...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS... TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN ARE EVIDENT JUST IN THIS REGION WITH SOME SPATIAL OVERLAP... 1. INITIAL UPSLOPE RELATED DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN CO/NERN NM THAT MAY RESULT IN ONE OR TWO SEVERE MCS FROM WRN KS INTO TX PANHANDLE AND PERHAPS WRN OK OVERNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ELY/UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD CONTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANTLY TO SHEAR...BOTH IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP-LAYER BULKS SHEAR...FAVORING AFTERNOON SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE BUOYANCY ALSO. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS STRONG ENOUGH IN POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO INTRODUCE SIGNIFICANT-HAIL PROBABILITIES...THOUGH MESOSCALE FACTORS MAY WARRANT EXTENSION SEWD INTO LOW PLAINS IN LATER OUTLOOKS. PRIMARY POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT FROM DUAL HAIL/WIND THREAT TO MOSTLY WIND AS RESULTING MCS MOVES SEWD ACROSS HIGH PLAINS. 2. FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RELATED DEVELOPMENT FROM TX PANHANDLE ENEWD ACROSS OK...SRN KS...AND MO. AMBIENT AIR MASS -- UNDISTURBED BY PRIOR CONVECTION -- WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY 8-9 DEG C/KM LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...RICH SFC-850 MOIST LAYER AND AT LEAST MRGLLY FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES LOCALLY SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG ZONALLY ORIENTED OR NW-SE BOUNDARIES...HELPING TO COUNTERACT WEAK MIDLEVEL WINDS. MCV -- NOW EVIDENT OVER S-CENTRAL KS...ALSO MAY PROVIDE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT TO VERTICAL SHEAR AND TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AS INDICATED BY BOTH MAN-WRF AND SPECTRAL MODELS. ...OH VALLEY TO NERN CONUS... SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR AS EARLY AS MID-LATE MORNING...AND CONTINUING EPISODICALLY INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT-SVR AREA OR LARGER MODAL PROBABILITIES...HOWEVER ONE OR TWO SVR MCS MAY DEVELOP FROM EARLY ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH HAIL IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITH DISCRETE CELLS...PRIND MORE LONG-LASTING SEVERE MODE WOULD BE DAMAGING GUSTS...GIVEN NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL CHARACTER OF DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELDS. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM WSW AND W...AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AWAY FROM BOUNDARIES...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS. BUOYANCY MAY BE EVEN STRONGER OVER PORTIONS INDIANA/IL...HOWEVER WEAKER CONVERGENCE ALSO IS EXPECTED INVOF FRONTAL ZONE. ..EDWARDS/CROSBIE.. 06/22/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 15:52:48 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 11:52:48 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 221550 SWODY1 SPC AC 221548 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1048 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF MID MS AND MUCH OF OHIO VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND TX/OK PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS MID MS VALLEY TO NY/PA... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD TROUGH CENTRAL U.S. WITH UPPER HIGH PARKED OVER CA. WHILE STRONGEST WIND FIELDS REMAIN ACROSS NRN STATES...A COUPLE MID IMPULSES HAVE EMERGED FROM WEDNESDAYS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MCV TRACKING EWD ACROSS NRN IL CURRENTLY DRIVING EARLY STORM DEVELOPMENT THAT AREA. UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH ERN KS WILL MOVE ACROSS MO AND MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK TROUGH IN THE WNWLY FLOW CURRENTLY CROSSING CENTRAL ROCKIES...NOTED IN W/V IMAGERY...WILL ENHANCE SHEAR AND STORM POTENTIAL E SLOPES THIS AFTERNOON. ...MID MS AND OH VALLEY... MORNING SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICT A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE TO THE S AND E OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES THAT EXTEND FROM LWR MI SWWD ACROSS NRN IL TO MO. WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7C/KM AND MUCH OF AREA RECEIVING STRONG HEATING...MLCAPES OF 3000 J/KG WILL BE COMMON BY MID AFTERNOON. THE ENHANCED MID LEVEL SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TWO MID LEVEL IMPULSES CENTRAL U.S. SUPPORT A VERY ACTIVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DAY FROM MID MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY. SUFFICIENT SHEAR COUPLED WITH THE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELLS AMD ORGANIZED LINES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS PRIMARY THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOS COULD OCCUR IN FAVORABLY ENHANCED SHEAR VICINITY BOUNDARIES. FURTHER E ACROSS PA/NY CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING WHICH WILL ALLOW STRONG DESTABILIZATION AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURES CONTINUES SPREADING E. 30-35 KT OF SHEAR AND MLCAPES UPWARDS TO 2000 J/KG SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...WIND/HAIL...WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS WORKED WWD TO FRONT RANGE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL TROUGH BOTH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AN ACTIVE SEVERE DAY FROM ERN CO SEWD TO TX/OK PANHANDLES. NEAR FULL HEATING WILL ALLOW STORM INITIATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHER TERRAIN AS MLCAPES INCREASE TO 2000 J/KG. STORMS THEN WILL MOVE E/SEWD INTO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE VEERING SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND STRONGER INSTABILITY. SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER SHEAR AND FAVORABLY LOW LFC'S SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. SEVERE THREAT WILL PROPAGATE SEWD AND CONTINUE AFTER DARK. ...SERN AZ... HAVE ADDED ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT THIS AREA AS PW'S HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR AN INCH AND STEEP LAPSE RATES REMAIN. STORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WILL PROPAGATE INTO DESERTS VALLEYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH DCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS ARE LIKELY. ..HALES/GUYER.. 06/22/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 22 19:44:50 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 15:44:50 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 221942 SWODY1 SPC AC 221940 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISKS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO NY... ...MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY... TWO LONG LIVED MCS/S HAVE REINTENSIFIED OVER THE OH AND MID MS VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD MCS HAS EXPANDED MARKEDLY OVER NRN OH THE LAST FEW HOURS. ACTUAL VORT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS LOCATED OVER SRN LOWER MI...BUT CLEARLY THE LARGE SCALE INFLUENCE STRETCHES SWD INTO OH WHERE INSTABILITY IS QUITE HIGH WITH MODEST SWLY FLOW AT 6KM. A COLD POOL APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING OVER NERN IND/NWRN OH. THIS MAY AID DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS SQUALL LINE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND RACES EWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NRN/CNTRL OH INTO WRN PA. ADDITIONALLY...MULTIPLE DISCRETE STORMS HAVE EVOLVED AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE AND THEY WILL SPREAD INTO WRN PA A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF DAMAGING SQUALL LINE. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER WELL DEFINED UPPER VORT IS BECOMING WELL DEFINED WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL MO. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STRENGTHENED ACROSS MO AND APPEAR TO BE ORGANIZING INTO A SQUALL LINE FROM EAST OF JEF TRAILING SWWD INTO NWRN AR. VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH MLCAPES TO 3000J/KG...WHICH WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED UPWARD GROWTH OF MCS AS IT SPREADS EWD INTO SRN IL/SRN IND. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AS SQUALL LINE MATURES OVER MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. ...SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN CO INTO NERN NM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS IS QUITE BUOYANT AT THIS TIME WITH CU FIELD EXPANDING AHEAD OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...MCS SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR FROM NORTH OF COS TO NEAR GLD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD SEWD WITHIN FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR MAINTAINING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN LARGER MCS-TYPE COMPLEX. VERY LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY CONVECTION AS IT SPREADS TOWARD THE TX PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH...STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS SLOWING ITS WWD PROPAGATION OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MEANDER ABOUT IN THE LBB REGION...DRIVEN BY STORM PROCESSES AS FLOW ALOFT IS MUCH WEAKER OVER THIS REGION. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..DARROW.. 06/22/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 23 01:02:01 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2006 21:02:01 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 230101 SWODY1 SPC AC 230059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN NEW ENGLAND ALONG OH VALLEY TO NWRN TN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN CHARACTERIZES MID/UPPER LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF N HALF OF CONUS...WITH SOME CYCLONIC FLOW OVER GREAT LAKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH HUDSON BAY VORTEX. WEAK MEAN TROUGH AND CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE ALOFT IS EVIDENT FROM CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SWWD ACROSS MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX REGION TO S TX. THIS INCLUDES CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION....NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND VWP/PROFILER DATA OVER MO. PRIMARY SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE IS CHARACTERIZED BY EXTENSIVE COLLECTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM WRN NY...ERRATICALLY SWWD TO SRN HIGH PLAINS. ...MID-UPPER OH VALLEY...NERN CONUS... SEVERAL BANDS OF STG-SVR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND SEWD THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS WRN NY...PA...WV AND NRN KY. FOREGOING/INFLOW AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLE BUOYANCY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN PA INTO WRN NJ WHERE MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 4-5Z IN PRECONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. REF WWS 541...543...546...AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR ADDITIONAL NOWCAST INFO. SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 4Z AMIDST WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AS BUOYANCY BEGINS TO DIMINISH. ...OZARKS TO LOWER OH VALLEY REGION... ORGANIZED LINEAR MCS OVER S-CENTRAL/SWRN IL...EXTREME SERN MO AND NWRN AR HAS SHOWN WEAKENING TRENDS DURING PAST COUPLE HOURS. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MO SHOULD MOVE EWD UP OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT -- RESULTING BOTH FROM DPVA AND LOW LEVEL WAA -- SHOULD CONTRIBUTE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION ALOFT TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND/OR MAINTENANCE OF ACTIVITY NOW AHEAD OF MCS ACROSS INDIANA/SERN IL AND CENTRAL/WRN KY. DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE IN SUFFICIENT DENSITY TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK ACROSS THIS REGION. ...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS... NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE CONSOLIDATING ATTM FROM WRN KS AND EXTREME EWD CO...SWD INTO NERN NM AND WRN PORTIONS TX/OK PANHANDLES. SVR HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS ACTIVITY MOVES SEWD THROUGH FAVORABLY STRONG LOW LEVEL THETAE AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...OVERLAIN BY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS IS EVIDENT IN MODIFIED DDC RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. REF WWS 544...545...AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR ADDITIONAL NOWCAST INFO. AMIDST NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW...RESULTING MCS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF SWRN/S-CENTRAL KS...PORTIONS WRN/NRN OK...AND PERHAPS TX PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE WEAK ATTM PER NWRN OK PROFILER DATA...STRENGTHENING LLJ SHOULD ENHANCE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW ACROSS THIS REGION...IN ENVIRONMENT OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR PROPAGATION OF MCS MAY BE INTO INSTABILITY AXIS EVIDENT ACROSS NRN TX/OK PANHANDLES...INTO NWRN/W-CENTRAL OK...WHICH IS LOCATED AROUND NRN/NERN RIM OF CENTRAL/SRN TX PANHANDLE AIR MASS THAT HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZED BY EARLIER ACTIVITY. OCCASIONAL HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS.. 06/23/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 23 06:08:29 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2006 02:08:29 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 230603 SWODY1 SPC AC 230602 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NEW ENGLAND TO LOWER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN GREAT PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... SUBTLE PATTERN SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH PERIOD...AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS GREAT BASIN AND DIFFUSE TROUGHING DEVELOPS FROM OH VALLEY ACROSS SERN CONUS...S OF PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY VORTEX. SEVERAL MINOR MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN NWLY/WLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL/ERN CONUS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE CONVECTIVELY DEVELOPED/ENHANCED AS MCV FEATURES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN WA AND SWRN BC -- APPEARS TO BE POORLY RESOLVED BY MOST 23/00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND EVEN MOST 22/21Z SREFX MEMBERS...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL. THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH MEAN RIDGE AND REACH N-CENTRAL PLAINS AROUND 24/00Z. AT SFC...BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS BEEN DIFFUSED GREATLY BY NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...BUT GENERALLY EXTENDS FROM NY SWWD ALONG OH VALLEY TO SRN HIGH PLAINS. ...NEW ENGLAND TO LOWER MS VALLEY... UP TO 2-3 CLUSTERS OR BANDS OF TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS AREA...MOVING GENERALLY EWD...MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND. MARGINALLY SVR HAIL ALSO IS LIKELY...WITH LINEAR AND MULTICELLULAR MODES PREDOMINANT. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT LOCATION OF MOST CONCENTRATED THREAT...GIVEN PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW AIR OVER REGION ATTM. THEREFORE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES MAY BE COMPRESSED/DIVIDED OR SHIFTED IN SUCCEEDING OUTLOOKS. PRIND MOST SVR ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE... 1. FROM AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW-REINFORCED BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND/OR 2. ALONG/AHEAD OF REMNANTS OF MORNING MCS...AIDED BY ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES...AND MESOSCALE SHEAR/UVV ENHANCEMENTS PROVIDED BY MCVS. SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK AS PROSPECTIVE INFLOW LAYERS ARE STABILIZED BY COMBINATION OF SFC DIABATIC COOLING...OUTFLOW AIR...AND NEAR COAST...RELATIVELY COLD SEA BREEZE. ...CENTRAL/NRN GREAT PLAINS... TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD FORM INITIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF BLACK HILLS SWD TOWARD NERN CO...AND DEVELOP/SPREAD SEWD AMIDST INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER PACIFIC NW. WHEN COMBINED WITH NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW...SELY SFC WINDS EMANATING FROM POSTFRONTAL AIR MASS WILL YIELD FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM SWRN/S-CENTRAL SD SWD THROUGH WRN NEB. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN POSTFRONTAL ORIGIN OF INFLOW-LAYER TRAJECTORIES...WITH SFC DEW POINTS REMAINING GENERALLY IN 50S F. HOWEVER...BENEATH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 9 DEG C/KM...THIS SHOULD SUFFICE TO YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF OUTLOOK AREA. COMBINED CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL FROM SOME TSTMS BEFORE ACTIVITY EVOLVES INTO ONE OR TWO SEWD-MOVING...NOCTURNAL MCS WITH DAMAGING WIND MAIN THREAT. STRONGLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO DIURNAL WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. ...SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY... SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED INVOF LOOSELY DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE...FROM LOWER MS VALLEY WSWWD ACROSS ARKLATEX...N AND W TX...ERN NM...AND PORTIONS TX/OK PANHANDLES. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR IN ENVIRONMENTS OF FAVORABLE BUOYANCY -- I.E. MLCAPES 1500-3000 J/KG -- AND MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE SVR HAIL/GUSTS. EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE OVER THIS REGION IS YET TO TAKE SHAPE AND WILL BE STRONGLY MODIFIED/MODULATED BY POSITION AND STRENGTH OF OUTFLOW AIR MASSES LEFT BEHIND BY PRIOR OVERNIGHT/MORNING ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH A FEW COLD POOL DRIVEN MULTICELL CLUSTERS MAY CONCENTRATE SVR REPORTS WITHIN THIS BROAD ARC...MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES AND LACK OF MORE ROBUST KINEMATIC SUPPORT PRECLUDE MORE THAN MRGL SVR PROBABILITIES ATTM. VERTICAL WIND AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE FCST TO BE QUITE WEAK ACROSS MOST OF THIS AREA...INDICATING LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SVR EVENT. ..EDWARDS/TAYLOR.. 06/23/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 23 12:58:27 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2006 08:58:27 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 231258 SWODY1 SPC AC 231256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VLY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST / NORTHEAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER WRN PARTS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPR LOW WILL LINGER OVER ERN HUDSON BAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS GRT BASIN RIDGE BUILDS N INTO THE PACIFIC NW. SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES EVIDENT IN SATELLITE LOOPS FROM ALBERTA SEWD INTO MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS SHOULD AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THEIR WEST. IN THE EAST...SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES REMAIN SOMEWHAT MASKED BY MCS DEBRIS. APPARENT SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND/OR MCVS DO...HOWEVER...APPEAR ATTM OVER IL/IND...AND OVER SRN WV. ...TN VLY TO NEW ENG... THIS MORNING'S SURFACE DATA SHOW EVIDENCE OF YESTERDAY'S WIDESPREAD STORMS FROM THE OH VLY TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH DEWPOINTS SOMEWHAT DEPRESSED IN THAT REGION RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER S ACROSS VA/NC. SURFACE HEATING OF DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT LIKELY WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS ALONG A BROAD CORRIDOR FROM KY/TN NEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN NEW ENG. WEAK COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM UPSTATE NY INTO THE LWR OH VLY MAY SERVE AS FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES VERY SLOWLY SEWD. MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY SHOULD FORM INVOF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN CNTRL VA AND SRN KY/MIDDLE TN....WHERE HEATING WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE GREATEST. MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW LIKELY WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN PA/NY AND NEW ENG. FARTHER S...SLIGHTLY GREATER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY COMPENSATE FOR WEAKER SHEAR TO SUPPORT MORE CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY IN THE ERN HALF OF TN...NRN/WRN NC AND CNTRL/ERN VA. DESPITE ORGANIZATION INTO CLUSTERS...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE RATHER DIURNAL...WITH WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET. ...NRN/CNTRL PLNS... SERIES OF IMPULSES DROPPING SE ACROSS THE NRN HI PLNS WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE ACROSS WRN/CNTRL SD AND NW NEB TODAY/TONIGHT. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50/...HEATING BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE BLACK HILLS BY MID AFTERNOON. MORE WIDELY SCATTERED/HIGHER-BASED STORMS MAY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN W INTO SRN MT/NRN WY. MODERATE /35+ KT/ DEEP WNWLY SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. THESE STORMS SHOULD MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE SMALL CLUSTERS THAT MOVE GENERALLY SE INTO THE WRN HALF OF NEB AND NW KS LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. ...SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY... WEAKLY SHEARED/MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS FOLLOWING MAX HEATING TODAY FROM PARTS OF TX INTO MS. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 06/23/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 23 16:17:48 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2006 12:17:48 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 231616 SWODY1 SPC AC 231614 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VALLEY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...MID ATLANTIC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND... LOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST AHEAD OF PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ME SSWWD INTO SRN NY AND CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WARM SECTOR REMAINS OVERLAID WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS...WHICH MAY COMPLICATE OVERALL SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON. ONE SUCH BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS ERN MD INTO CENTRAL VA IS FOCUSING A FEW STRONGER STORMS LATE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF N-S ORIENTED FEATURE SPREADING QUICKLY EWD TOWARDS THE CHESAPEAKE. THOUGH AIR MASS IS ALREADY UNSTABLE...MLCAPE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG INTO SERN VA...DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON AREA VWP/S AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL REMAIN QUITE MARGINAL WITH SFC-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 20 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT FROM NRN MD INTO PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND AS AFTERNOON HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. ACROSS THIS REGION...SHEAR WILL BE QUITE A BIT STRONGER UNDER 30-40 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR CLOSE TO 40 KT WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO...WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS ACTIVITY QUICKLY SPREADS TOWARDS THE COAST. ...TN VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STALLED FROM ERN OH INTO NRN KY TODAY WITH AIR MASS BECOMING MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE TO ITS SOUTH. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAIN IN PLACE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...THE MOST PROMINENT OF WHICH IS PUSHING QUICKLY EWD INTO NRN AL AND MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING. AS CAP WEAKENS AND HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE...STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS A LARGE AREA BY THE MID AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT AND LEAVE REGION WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAKLY-SHEARED REGIME. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STORMS MAY BE PRONE TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER DARK. ...NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SSELY SURFACE WINDS AND PERSISTENT LOWER TO MID 50F SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THREAT AGAIN TODAY FROM PORTIONS OF SERN MT ESEWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL SD/NEB. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS APPEAR TO BE SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS WRN SD AND SWRN MT THIS MORNING. TRAILING SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS SERN MT/NERN WY/WRN SD DURING PEAK HEATING WHERE MLCAPE WILL APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY 21Z. OTHER STORMS MAY INCREASE ACROSS WRN NEB DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZATION INTO SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOW ECHOES IS LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL WIND DAMAGE AND VERY LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO A MCS AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG NOSE OF 30 KT SSWLY LLJ ACROSS CENTRAL NEB/SD. LARGE HAIL MAY BECOME PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH POTENTIAL BOW ECHO MCS COULD SUSTAIN WIND DAMAGE THREAT WELL AFTER DARK. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 06/23/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 26 12:52:46 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 26 Jun 2006 08:52:46 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 261251 SWODY1 SPC AC 261250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2006 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR OH VLY INTO THE TN VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... ANOMALOUS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUING TO DROP S/SW INTO MID MS VLY UPR LOW...SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW SHOULD AMPLIFY SSEWD TODAY AS NRN STREAM SYSTEM NOW ENTERING WRN MANITOBA CONTINUES SE INTO WRN ONTARIO/NW MN. DEEP SLY FLOW BETWEEN MS VLY LOW AND STRONGER-THAN-NORMAL N ATLANTIC RIDGE SHOULD ACCELERATE DISTURBANCE NOW NEAR THE BAHAMAS N TOWARD THE CAROLINA CST TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. DESPITE AMPLIFIED PATTERN...SFC FEATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVANCE VERY SLOWLY W/NW ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN APLCNS...WHILE DIFFUSE COLD FRONT EXTENDING S/SW FROM WEAK LOW IN SE IL CONTINUES E/SEWD. WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MANITOBA IMPULSE...NOW LOCATED N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...EXPECTED TO SETTLE SE ACROSS MN AND THE ERN DAKOTAS LATER IN THE DAY. ...LWR OH/TN VLYS... A SETUP SIMILAR TO THAT WHICH AFFECTED THE MID MS VLY YESTERDAY WILL PREVAIL FROM SW MI INTO PARTS OF IL/IND/WRN KY/TN AND PERHAPS NRN MS TODAY AS UPR LOW SETTLES S/SE TOWARD REGION. SURFACE HEATING OF WEAKLY CONVERGENT AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF VORT LOBE MOVING E FROM MO SHOULD FOSTER STORM INITIATION INVOF WEAK LOW/FRONT OVER IL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD THEN EXPAND SWD AND EWD ALONG FRONT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY FORM IN POCKETS OF RE-DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IN WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS AS COOLING ALOFT SPREADS SEWD. RELATIVELY WEAK/VARIABLE WIND PROFILES SUGGEST PREDOMINANT STORM MODE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR...WITH WEAK ORGANIZATION INTO CLUSTERS/BANDS. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COULD PROMOTE SCATTERED HAIL AND STRONG WIND EVENTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...ERN DAKOTAS/NRN AND WRN MN... COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING SWD WITH AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WILL YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 1500 J PER KG/ WRN/NRN MN AND THE ERN DAKOTAS LATER TODAY. COUPLED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MANITOBA UPR SYSTEM...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS LIKELY WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT 30+ KT DEEP NNWLY SHEAR WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND. ASSUMING THE PRESENCE OF DISCRETE STORMS AND FAVORABLE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT FORECAST WIND PROFILES APPEAR SIMILAR TO THOSE THAT WERE PRESENT DURING ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO/FUNNEL EVENTS THAT HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY WITH SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUPS IN THE PAST WEEK. ...CAROLINAS TO MID ATLANTIC STATES... DEEP...VERY MOIST UNIDIRECTIONAL SLY FLOW WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR QUASI-STATIONARY BANDS OF BACK-BUILDING CONVECTION/STORMS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE CAROLINAS N INTO PA/NJ/NY. THE MOST SERIOUS THREAT POSED WILL BE FLOODING...BUT A LOW PROBABILITY WILL ALSO EXIST FOR TORNADOES. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST BOTH ALONG AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM S SCNTRL PA/CNTRL MD SSW INTO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT...AND ALONG WARM SECTOR CONVECTIVE BANDS DEVELOPING WITH SFC HEATING. WHILE ANY SUCH THREAT SHOULD BE MAINLY DIURNAL...EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF 925-850 MB FLOW THIS EVENING FROM VA NWD INTO MD/PA SUGGESTS THAT A LIMITED POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT. FARTHER S...THE THREAT MAY ALSO INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD ALONG THE SC/SRN NC CSTL PLN AS LOW LEVEL FLOW/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING BAHAMAS DISTURBANCE. ...ERN/SRN AZ/NM/SRN CO... WEAK N/NELY MID LEVEL FLOW ON FRINGE OF GRT BASIN UPR RIDGE WILL FAVOR S/SW PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM/ERN AZ LATER TODAY. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS AND THUS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY YIELD STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS THE GUST FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE LWR DESERTS. BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND EXPECTED STORM ORGANIZATION APPEAR TOO LIMITED ATTM TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK. ..CORFIDI/GRAMS.. 06/26/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 26 16:02:30 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 26 Jun 2006 12:02:30 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 261601 SWODY1 SPC AC 261559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1059 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2006 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IL/IND INTO WRN KY/NWRN TN... ...NRN PLAINS... WV IMAGERY INDICATES POTENT VORT CENTER/SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIES...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING INTO NERN ND/FAR NWRN MN. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S F ACROSS NRN MN INTO SERN ND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH MLCAPE FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE MID 70S. STEEP LOW AND MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES UNDER -16C TO -20C H5 TEMPERATURES SHOULD FOSTER A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY. LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEAR WEAK FOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH SFC-6 KM SHEAR FROM 20-25 KT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZATION INTO CLUSTERS/LINES SPREADING QUICKLY SSEWD INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. ...IL/IND INTO WRN TN... SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AGAIN FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR COLDER MID LEVEL AIR EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF IL/IND AND THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY. WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS LOCATED NEAR MTO THIS MORNING WITH BROAD SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXES EXTENDING NNWWD ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND SSWWD INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THESE FEATURES WILL LIKELY MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS AIR MASS BECOMES MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED BY THE MID AFTERNOON. PRIMARY REGION WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN STRONGER ASCENT AND COOLER AIR ALOFT/STEEPER LAPSE RATES WITHIN RIGHT EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF A LAND SPOUT TORNADO OR TWO WHERE LOW LEVEL CAPE AND SURFACE VORTICITY ARE MAXIMIZED NEAR SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. ...CAROLINAS TO MID ATLANTIC STATES... DEEP...VERY MOIST UNIDIRECTIONAL SLY FLOW WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR QUASI-STATIONARY BANDS OF BACK-BUILDING CONVECTION/STORMS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE CAROLINAS N INTO PA/NJ/NY. THE MOST SERIOUS THREAT POSED WILL BE FLOODING...BUT A LOW PROBABILITY WILL ALSO EXIST FOR TORNADOES. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST BOTH ALONG A WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM S SCNTRL PA/CNTRL MD SSWWD INTO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT...AND ALONG WARM SECTOR CONVECTIVE BANDS DEVELOPING WITH SFC HEATING. WHILE ANY SUCH THREAT SHOULD BE MAINLY DIURNAL...EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF 925-850 MB FLOW THIS EVENING FROM VA NWD INTO MD/PA SUGGESTS THAT A LIMITED POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT. FARTHER S...THE THREAT MAY ALSO INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD ALONG THE SC/SRN NC CSTL PLN AS LOW LEVEL FLOW/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING BAHAMAS DISTURBANCE. ...ERN/AZ/NM/SRN CO... WEAK N/NELY MID LEVEL FLOW ON FRINGE OF GRT BASIN UPR RIDGE WILL FAVOR S/SW PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM/ERN AZ LATER TODAY. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS AND THUS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY YIELD STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS THE GUST FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE LWR DESERTS. BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND EXPECTED STORM ORGANIZATION APPEAR TOO LIMITED ATTM TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK. ..EVANS/GUYER/CORFIDI.. 06/26/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 26 20:03:37 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 26 Jun 2006 16:03:37 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 262002 SWODY1 SPC AC 262001 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2006 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VLY AND NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LWR OH VLY AND MIDWEST... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VLY... STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SWD INTO SRN MANT AT MID-AFTN. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL MASS CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...NUMEROUS TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NWRN ONT...SERN MANT SWD INTO ERN ND AND NRN MN WITHIN STEEPENING LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. H5 TEMPERATURES AOB MINUS 15 DEG C ATOP MID 50S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR WAS NOT TERRIBLY STRONG...BUT MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES WAS SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. TSTMS COULD ALSO BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE INCREASING UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY FLOW AND EVOLVE INTO SMALL-SCALE BOWS GIVING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UNTIL SUNSET. ...LWR OH VLY/MIDWEST... UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE MAKING AN ADVERTISED TURN TO THE EAST PER AFTN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WAS ALSO ROTATING EWD ATOP A WARM AND MODESTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG. TSTMS HAVE BEEN FAVORING THE STRONGER CONVERGENCE/SFC TROUGH ALONG THE IL/IND BORDER...BUT OTHER STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING UPSTREAM BENEATH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES/ STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT. VERTICAL SHEAR WAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KTS AND ANY INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISKS. LANDSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE AFTER DARK. ...CAROLINAS TO MID ATLANTIC STATES... TROPICAL CONVEYOR BELT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A DEEP AND MOIST TROPOSPHERE ACROSS THE ERN STATES. SLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...WEAK CINH AND FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR QUASI-STATIONARY BANDS OF BACK-BUILDING TSTMS THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLD TSTM LINE SEGMENTS WILL BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE MEAN FLOW AND COULD BOW GIVING LOCAL DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL TO PARTS OF THE SERN COAST. BUT...THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW TORNADO PROBABILITY...MAINLY THIS AFTN. LATER TONIGHT...AS THE NRN BAHAMAS UPPER WAVE MIGRATES TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND COULD BRING A LATE NIGHT RISK OF ISOLD TORNADO TO PARTS OF THE SERN COAST. ...ERN/AZ/NM/SRN CO... WEAK N/NELY MID-LEVEL FLOW ON FRINGE OF GRT BASIN UPR RIDGE WILL FAVOR S/SW PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM/ERN AZ LATE THIS AFTN/EVE. PWATS HAVE INCREASED DURING THE PAST 24-HRS. THUS...TSTMS MAY THRIVE INTO THE VLYS...PRODUCING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..RACY.. 06/26/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 27 00:57:30 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 26 Jun 2006 20:57:30 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 270056 SWODY1 SPC AC 270054 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2006 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL/SRN ATLANTIC COAST... 00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS E OF THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF SUB-TROPICAL WAVE /CURRENTLY OFF THE NERN FL COAST/ WHICH WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY ABSORBED IN DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW REGIME IN PLACE OVER THE PIEDMONT AND COAST PLAIN. NAM/RUC GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NWD ALONG THE GA/SC COASTS TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER WAVE...MAINTAINING BACKED SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE CNTRL INTO SRN ATLANTIC COAST. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST /25-30 KTS THROUGH 0-6 KM AGL/...LOCALLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE LOW AND THE MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS INDICATE A LOW THREAT OF A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO...AND PERHAPS A FEW LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. ...OH VALLEY... OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOW A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE/HEIGHT SYSTEM OVER IL...WHICH IS MAINTAINING ACTIVE CONVECTION FROM VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER OVER CNTRL INTO SERN IL...EWD ALONG WEAK ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL IND INTO WRN KY. 00Z SOUNDINGS AND VWPS/PROFILES INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WEAK INVOF THIS LOW...HOWEVER MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES OF AROUND -14 C AT 500 MB ARE RESULTING IN WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN ONGOING STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME HAIL/LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ONGOING OVER CNTRL MN INTO WRN WI AND NERN SD. 00Z MSP SOUNDING INDICATES THAT RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH THE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARE LARGELY SUPPORTING THIS DEEP CONVECTION. ACTIVITY HAS TENDED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN. ISOLATED HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS THROUGH 02-03Z. ...AZ/NM... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING OVER NRN NM AND PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN AZ WITHIN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 00Z ABQ INDICATES SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO NWLY IN THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS WITH 30-35 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...WHICH IS SUPPORTING SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION IN SOME OF THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH 02-03Z INTO CNTRL NM...PRIOR TO STORMS WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OVER SRN AZ...VERTICAL SHEAR IS MUCH WEAKER THOUGH A CONSIDERABLY DEEPER BOUNDARY-LAYER AND DRY SUB CLOUD CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH A THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ..MEAD.. 06/27/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 28 06:01:20 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 28 Jun 2006 02:01:20 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 280601 SWODY1 SPC AC 280559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT WED JUN 28 2006 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY AND EWD INTO WRN PARTS OF NY/PA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS INTO SRN GA/NRN FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NRN CA/NWRN NV AND S-CNTRL ORE... ...SYNOPSIS... FULL LATITUDE TROUGH /ANCHORED BY VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY/ WILL ASSUME A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS SRN PORTION OF TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. WITHIN THIS PATTERN...SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION...THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY...WI AND WRN ONTARIO. IN THE W...IMPULSE JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST IS FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND PERIPHERY OF UPPER HIGH...AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADAS AND WRN GREAT BASIN NEAR THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER THE DELMARVA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT DEVELOPS NWD INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT OR COASTAL PLAIN TO THE FL PNHDL. FARTHER W...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE WRN/CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND LOWER/MID OH VALLEY...WHILE WWD EXTENSION OF PRIOR FRONTAL SURGE SLOWLY LIFTS NWD THROUGH NEB. ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY INTO NRN APPALACHIANS... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OWING TO NUMEROUS IMPULSES ROTATING TROUGH LARGER-SCALE TROUGH AND THE LACK OF ANY WELL-DEFINED BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. NONETHELESS...RESIDUAL DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-14 TO -16 C AT 500 MB/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK CAP...EXPECT ARCING LINES OR CLUSTERS OF TSTMS TO BECOMING INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY EWD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL NY/PA. WHILE DEEP SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG /25-35 KTS IN THE LOWEST 6 KM/...THE MODERATELY STRONG LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ...NRN CA/NWRN NV/S-CNTRL ORE... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH SBCAPES APPROACHING 500-1500 J/KG. SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OWING TO RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD CONDITIONS AND RESULTING DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. ...COASTAL CAROLINAS INTO SRN GA/NRN FL... RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F/ COUPLED WITH STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING FRONT WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1500-2500 J/KG. TSTMS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BY MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR MERGING COLD POOLS AND PERHAPS A MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ...NEB... KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE TSTMS ALONG RETREATING BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER DEEP CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED OWING TO THE BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EWD. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...THE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ISSUANCE OF A CATEGORICAL RISK. ..MEAD/JEWELL.. 06/28/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 28 12:59:52 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 28 Jun 2006 08:59:52 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 281258 SWODY1 SPC AC 281256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT WED JUN 28 2006 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPR GRT LKS INTO THE OH VLY/CNTRL APLCNS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/NRN SIERRA INTO SRN ORE/WRN NV... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE S ATLANTIC CST... ...SYNOPSIS... LITTLE CHANGE IN SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN RECENT DAYS...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING S/SE AROUND WRN AND SRN SIDES OF GRT LKS/OH VLY TROUGH. THOSE THIS MORNING INCLUDING APPARENT IMPULSES NOW OVER IL/WRN KY...NE WI...NRN MN AND WRN SD. IN THE WEST...UPR VORT NOW NEAR PT CONCEPTION SHOULD CONTINUE NW AND LATER NE AROUND FRINGE OF GRT BASIN RIDGE..REACHING SE ORE EARLY THURSDAY. ...UPR GRT LKS INTO OH VLY/CNTRL APLCNS... UNUSUALLY STRONG/COOL UPR TROUGH LIKELY WILL YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE GRT LKS/OH VLY AND APLCNS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN WEAK...BUT PERHAPS STRONGEST INVOF WEAK COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NRN LWR MI SW INTO NRN MO. BUT COUPLED WITH SURFACE HEATING... REGIONAL DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S...COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODEST DEEP SHEAR...SETUP SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT SHORT BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOST CONCENTRATED INVOF PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED UPR IMPULSES...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING HAIL. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF OH VLY IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT CONTINUED EWD DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS INTO THE CNTRL APLCNS BY THIS EVENING. ...NRN CA/SRN ORE/WRN NV... STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM COASTAL CA VORT SHOULD SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FROM THE NRN SIERRA NWD INTO PARTS OF ORE AND NV. INVERTED-VEE BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT AND STRENGTHENING MEAN FLOW SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING. ...S ATLANTIC CST... AN AXIS OF RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F/ WILL PERSIST ALONG THE S ATLANTIC CST IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SUBTROPICAL LOW. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...REGION MAY BE PERIPHERALLY AFFECTED BY AREA OF UPR DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH OH VLY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COUPLED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE PULSE STORMS. MERGING COLD POOLS MAY YIELD A DAMAGING WIND THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...CNTRL PLNS TO LWR MO VLY... A CHANCE WILL EXIST FOR HIGH-BASED MICROBURST-PRODUCING STORMS ALONG SEGMENT OF LEE TROUGH OVER ERN NEB/NE CO/NW KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER E...WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA...ALONG AND N OF WRN END OF SAME COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE OH VLY. WHILE THIS SETUP MAY YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED GIVEN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE WRN RIDGE. SHOULD STORMS FORM...A THREAT WILL EXIST FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TO WARRANT UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ATTM. ..CORFIDI.. 06/28/2006  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 28 16:37:39 2006 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 28 Jun 2006 12:37:39 -0400 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 281637 SWODY1 SPC AC 281635 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT WED JUN 28 2006 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN SIERRA/NRN CA INTO SRN ORE/WRN NV... ...CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... REFERENCE WW 558 AND ACCOMPANYING SWOMCDS FOR THE LATEST ON LOWER MI AND VICINITY TODAY. POTENT UPPER LOW WITH ASSOCIATED -20C MID LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL CONTINUE FOCUSING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE/SEVERITY AHEAD OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY. APPEARS MORE CONCENTRATED COVERAGE OF SEVERE WILL OCCUR ACROSS LOWER MI AND INTO PARTS OF NRN IND/NWRN OH...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN QUITE WEAK...THOUGH SOME ORGANIZATION INTO LINES/CLUSTERS MAY OCCUR GIVEN DEEP/FOCUSED ASCENT. THEREFORE...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. FARTHER SOUTH INTO IL/IND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/LINES AND POSSIBLY A SUPERCELL OR TWO AS MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION. EXPECT LARGE RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW ADVANCING SSEWD ACROSS NRN IL/NRN MO. THOUGH LOW LEVEL FOCUS/CONVERGENCE ACROSS WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN WEAK...SEVERAL CLUSTERS/LINES OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS CAP WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGER CLUSTERS/CORES WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...SOUTHEAST... WEAKLY ORGANIZED STORMS WILL TEND TO CLUSTER WITHIN 20-25 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF NRN FL/SRN GA INTO PORTIONS OF ERN SC/SERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. THIS SUGGESTS DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION... WITH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING AFTER DARK. ...NRN CA/SRN ORE/WRN NV... STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM COASTAL CA VORT SHOULD SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FROM THE NRN SIERRA NWD INTO PARTS OF ORE AND NV. INVERTED-VEE BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT AND STRENGTHENING MEAN FLOW SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING. ...CNTRL PLNS TO LWR MO VLY... THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT NOW EXTENDING NW-SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM ERN WY INTO SERN NEB/NERN KS. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL SUSTAIN A RISK FOR HIGH-BASED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL...ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION OF WRN NEB/FAR NERN CO. FARTHER E...WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA...ALONG AND N OF WRN END OF SAME COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE OH VLY. WHILE THIS SETUP MAY YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED GIVEN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE WRN RIDGE. SHOULD STORMS FORM...A THREAT WILL EXIST FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TO WARRANT UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ATTM. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 06/28/2006