[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 270100
SWODY1
SPC AC 270057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2006

VALID 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS EWD INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY...

...MID MS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...
ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA...CONVERGENCE
AND HEATING WAS ENOUGH TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM SRN LOWER MI SWWD TO NEAR THE
MO/IA BORDER. STRONGEST STORMS WERE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL IL
WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WAS PRESENT WITH MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...REFERENCE WW 646. THESE
STORMS SHOULD SPREAD ENEWD INTO IND THIS EVENING...THOUGH THE
INSTABILITY IS WEAKER EAST OF IL AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS FROM SERN OK INTO CENTRAL MO THIS
EVENING...STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN CENTRAL MO ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY
SEPARATING DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IN SRN MO FROM A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER IN NRN MO. ALTHOUGH WIND PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

...AZ...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED ALONG THE RIM AND DESPITE
ONLY 10-15 KT NLY MID LEVEL WINDS...STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY COLD POOL
AND MOVE SSWWD TOWARD PRC AND WEST OF PHX LATE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER..STORM COMPLEX IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS THIS SAME TIME LAST
NIGHT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER.
ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...
BUT THINK SYSTEM WILL BE LESS ROBUST THAN LAST NIGHT.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WRN NEB/NERN CO WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 25-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY RESULT
IN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...THE
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY THEREAFTER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS/STABILIZES.

...ERN/LA...
SEVERE THREAT WAS INHIBITED TODAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/
PRECIPITATION AND RESULTANT WEAK INSTABILITY. MODELS MAINTAIN A
FORECAST OF A 30-40 KT SLY LLJ OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LOW IN SERN TX
LIFTS SLOWLY NWD. HOWEVER...THE DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SLY WINDS
SUGGEST THE TORNADO THREAT IS LOW.

...OH...
BAND OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WERE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
OH THIS EVENING. A FEW HAIL/WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 1
TO 2 HOURS...BUT STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN SHORTLY AS THE STORMS MOVE
INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

..IMY.. 07/27/2006