[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 261955
SWODY1
SPC AC 261953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2006

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN LOWER MI INTO THE MID
MS/LOWER MO RIVER VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF ERN TX INTO
WRN LA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...

...CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER MO RIVER VALLEYS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS WELL DEFINED ON WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH COLD FRONT /NOW EXTENDING SEWD FROM
NERN WI INTO NRN IA/ SHIFTING SSEWD THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. 
CLOUDS HAVE REMAINED EXTENSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MI TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND HAVE GREATLY LIMITED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  EXCEPTION
IS WITHIN STRONG SUBSIDENT REGION OVER ERN/SRN WI AHEAD OF FRONT
WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR.  HOWEVER THIS SUBSIDENCE
WILL LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN WAKE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH. 
APPEARS SEVERE THREAT MAY BE A BIT HIGHER FROM SERN LOWER MI INTO
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE INTO
THE LOWER/MID MO RIVER VALLEY WHERE MLCAPE IS NOW OVER 3000 J/KG. 
EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 25-35 KT ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED LINES/CLUSTERS AND A RISK OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AS
STORMS INCREASE AND SPREAD ESEWD THROUGH THE EVENING.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF SRN WY AND NRN/CENTRAL
CO AHEAD OF TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVERSPREADING THE NRN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS.  ADDITIONAL INCREASING CU ARE EVIDENT ALONG
STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO WRN NEB.  4-KM NMM WRF AND 18Z RUC
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION AHEAD OF FEATURE MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN STRONG
HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 25-35
KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...STORMS MAY INCREASE/ORGANIZE THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MID EVENING ESEWD ACROSS MUCH OF WRN NEB.

...SOUTHEAST TX/SWRN LA...
APPEARS SEVERE THREAT HAS BEEN HINDERED TO THIS POINT BY EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS/CONVECTION AND RESULTANT WEAK INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...LATEST
RUC MAINTAINS FORECAST OF 30-40 KT SLY H85 LLJ THROUGH THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS TROPICAL IMPULSE SPREADS NWD ACROSS SERN TX. 
THIS MIGHT SUPPORT AN ISOLATED...BRIEF TORNADO AS 0-1 KM SHEAR HOLDS
AROUND 20 KT /0-1 KM SRH OF 100 M2 S-2/ AND LCLS REMAIN QUITE LOW
GIVEN MID 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS.

...SRN AZ INTO THE CO RIVER VALLEY...
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HAS ALL BUT CLEARED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO AGAIN DEVELOP. 
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OVER SWRN NM
AND FAR ERN AZ...AS WELL AS JUST NW OF LAS.  EXPECT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FLOW REMAINS RATHER
WEAK...THOUGH 10-15 KT H7 WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SLOW
MOVEMENT OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THREATS OF
HAIL AND BRIEF SEVERE GUSTS WITH STRONGER CORES.

...NORTHEAST...
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAIN QUITE WEAK ACROSS
THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE PRESENCE OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND NEAR 70 SURFACE DEW POINTS.  THEREFORE...EXPECT ANY
SEVERE STORM WILL REMAIN BRIEF/MARGINAL INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

..EVANS.. 07/26/2006