[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 260100
SWODY1
SPC AC 260058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT TUE JUL 25 2006

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...

...UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOVING THROUGH WRN MN/NWRN IA...WHILE A STRONGER SYSTEM WAS DROPPING
SEWD THROUGH ERN ND. A COLD FRONT AND A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN ND SYSTEM...WERE MOVING SEWD
THROUGH CENTRAL MN WWD INTO SERN SD. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 
FORCING WILL RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS THROUGH MID EVENING...
REFERENCE WW 642.

LARGE AREA OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WERE LOCATED AHEAD OF THE MN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM ERN NEB ACROSS WRN/NRN IA INTO SWRN WI. SURFACE BASED
AND MORE INTENSE CONVECTION DEVELOPED IN THE WARMER AIR MASS TO THE
EAST OF THE DENSE CLOUDS IN ERN IA. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL
INTO A CLUSTER/LINE WITH THE RESULTANT COLD POOL LIKELY TO INCREASE
THE SEVERE WIND THREAT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT
AND PUSHES THE STORMS EWD INTO NRN IL...
REFERENCE WW 644. OTHER STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN NRN WI AND THE U.P.
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A THREAT FOR
HAIL AND MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS...REF 643

DESPITE EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS...AIR MASS ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN IA
REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OVERNIGHT
...ELEVATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS AREA
IS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND VEERING WIND
PROFILES IN THE LOWER 3 KM WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...REF MCD
1626.

...NY...
THUNDERSTORMS WERE INITIATED ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE EARLIER TODAY AND
HAVE REMAINED STRONG/SEVERE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER
BUF AND ALY EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOW UPDRAFT ROOTS WILL BECOME
DECOUPLED FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH A FEW MORE DEGREES OF
COOLING...SO STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA SHORTLY.

...DESERT SOUTHWEST...
BAND OF STORMS WEST OF TUS ARE IN A LITTLE STRONGER MID LEVEL ELY
FLOW AND WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS CONVECTION AS IT MOVES WSWWD. ANOTHER BAND OF
STORMS WAS MOVING SLOWLY SWD OFF THE RIM AND EXTENDED FROM NORTH OF
IGM TO EAST OF PRC. WHILE MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG WOULD
SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT...THE WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND SLOW STORM MOTION
SUGGESTS HAIL/WIND WITH THESE STORMS SHOULD BE LOCALIZED.

..IMY.. 07/26/2006