[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 251235
SWODY1
SPC AC 251234

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 AM CDT TUE JUL 25 2006

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...

...MIDWEST STATES AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRACKING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...THE GREAT
LAKES...AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.  ONE FEATURE IS CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEAST MANITOBA AND WILL TRACK INTO MN BY THIS EVENING. 
RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MN/WI/MI...WHERE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S
AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE OVER 1000
J/KG.  SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM OVER
THESE REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BOTH ALONG THE FRONT OVER WESTERN
MN/EASTERN SD...AND EASTWARD INTO WI/MI IN LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
REGIME.  FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROMOTE
ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

OTHER MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM IN PARTS OF
NORTHEAST NEB/NORTHWEST IA WHERE HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL HELP
REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE.  THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF IA WITH A RISK
OF DAMAGING WINDS.

...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
OVER NORTHERN ME WHICH WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. 
HOWEVER...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF PRECIPITATION...HELPING STORMS TO INTENSIFY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.  MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 30-40 KNOT 6KM VERTICAL
SHEAR VALUES FAVORABLE FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER
CELLS.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
PLUME OF RICH MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO NEB. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS
EXPECTED IN THIS AXIS...ESPECIALLY FROM EASTERN CO INTO NEB. 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF CO
AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS.  DEEP...MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL PROMOTE THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. 
ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN KS BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATE TONIGHT.

..HART/TAYLOR.. 07/25/2006