[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 141223
SWODY1
SPC AC 141222

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0722 AM CDT FRI JUL 14 2006

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE GREAT LAKES STATES....

...SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN WI/NWRN IL...IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ESEWD THROUGH THE DAY AND EXTEND FROM SRN LOWER MI
SWWD INTO INDIANA BY LATE AFTERNOON. RIDGE OVER THE SWRN STATES WILL
BUILD NWD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE
WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
OVER LOWER MI...WITH A WEAK TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD INTO
SRN MO.

...GREAT LAKE STATES...
CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH WI THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE
DAY AND MAY GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY
WARMING AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS SRN LOWER MI.
STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO REDEVELOP WITHIN FORCING LOCATED
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND AN MCV MOVING EWD OUT OF CENTRAL MO INTO
IL AND INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPES FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG
ACROSS THIS REGION BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 30 KT...MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ONLY
20-25KT. HOWEVER...THIS SHEAR AND THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WITH SEVERE WIND/HAIL EVENTS. STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO OZARK PLATEAU...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH SLOWLY WEAKENING CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM 
CENTRAL AR WWD INTO CENTRAL/NWRN OK. A RELATIVELY STRONG MESO-HIGH
ASSOCIATED WAS PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY SWD...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM
SRN AR WWD INTO NERN TX...AND THEN NWWD INTO SWRN OK/TX PANHANDLE
BEFORE STALLING LATER THIS MORNING. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR RENEWED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG...DUE TO WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES...DEEP
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH 30-40 DEGREE SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEW
POINT SPREADS...MAY SUPPORT A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR SHORT LIVED MICRO
BURSTS.

...TN/UPPER OH VALLEYS EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...
STRONG HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE
VALUES TO RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. DESPITE THE LACK OF
DYNAMICAL FORCING...A WEAK CAP SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP. WEAK WINDS/SHEAR WILL RESULT IN DISORGANIZED
STORMS...BUT STRONG TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN THE HEAVY RAIN
CORES AND HOT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SHORT
LIVED MICROBURSTS.

..IMY.. 07/14/2006