[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 140054
SWODY1
SPC AC 140052

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

VALID 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SRN MID ATLANTIC COAST....

...CENTRAL STATES...
A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...COMPRISED OF AT LEAST A COUPLE
SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES...CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST OF A
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER.  AS THIS MOTION CONTINUES
TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST A RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE
HIGH...THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  BULK OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT
A SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL JET STREAK/SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
DIG SOUTH OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES... THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY.  

MOST EXTENSIVE ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH FORCING IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.  THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...SUPPORTED BY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHICH IS PREVALENT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.  

A CLUSTER OF STORMS WITH A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL NOW PROGRESSING
INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WILL PROBABLY MAINTAIN A RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.  HOWEVER...TOWARD
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS IT APPROACHES THE ST. LOUIS AREA...AND
PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST OF KANSAS CITY...COOLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER
PROBABLY WILL BEGIN TO MITIGATE SEVERE THREAT.

FARTHER WEST...NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS MAY SUPPORT ANOTHER
EXPANDING CLUSTER OF STORMS THIS EVENING.  MORE STRONGLY HEATED
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE SLOWER TO
COOL...MAINTAINING FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING
COLD POOL WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70
TOWARD THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER BY LATE EVENING...PERHAPS THE
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
 
...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...
MAIN UPPER FORCING IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFFSHORE...BUT MIXED LAYER
CAPE TO 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT MAY MAINTAIN RELATIVELY
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 03-04Z...BEFORE ACTIVITY
DIMINISHES FURTHER WITH CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING.

..KERR.. 07/14/2006