[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 132016
SWODY1
SPC AC 132015

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST KANSAS...WESTERN IOWA...AND NORTHWEST
MISSOURI....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
PLAINS STATES AND INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF VA/NC AND
VICINITY...

...THE PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...
VIGOROUS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/ORGANIZE INVOF THE MID MO
VALLEY...WHILE INCREASING STORM COVERAGE IS EVIDENT NWD INTO WRN MN
AS WELL AS SEWD ACROSS ERN MO. AIRMASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE --
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION...WHERE DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 70S BENEATH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE RESULTING IN
2500 TO 4500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE.

WITH 30 KT WNWLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADING EWD INTO THIS REGION BENEATH
LOW-LEVEL SLYS...SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL
STORMS -- PARTICULARLY GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.  ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD/LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED AS STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST
ACROSS SERN NEB EWD INTO IA/NWRN MO AND SWD INTO NERN KS -- WHERE
GREATEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE INDICATED. 
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT AXIS OF GREATEST THREAT TO SHIFT SWD AND EWD --
ACROSS ERN KS AND MO -- AS SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AIDING
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS TO DEVELOP.  ALONG
WITH THREAT FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS STORMS
SPREAD SEWD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...PARTS OF VA/NC AND VICINITY...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INVOF SURFACE FRONT/AHEAD OF UPPER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING WV/WRN VA ATTM...WITHIN
MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  MODERATE/WLY FLOW WITH HEIGHT REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THIS REGION...BUT FLOW ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. 
NONETHELESS...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE
WITH STRONGER CELLS PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF DIURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER
STABILIZATION.

..GOSS.. 07/13/2006