[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 130058
SWODY1
SPC AC 130056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006

VALID 130100Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND
THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...

...MID-ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SWRN
ONTARIO EXTENDING SSWWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC
STATES IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGEST
STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS
SERN PA. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUSTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS CURRENTLY SHOW
0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT ACROSS NJ WHICH COMBINED WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A 40-45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET OVER
SRN PA SHOULD CONTINUE A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS. WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLY HAIL WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH THE
MORE-ORGANIZED MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS.

...NRN PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW OVER THE WRN
DAKOTAS. AN MCS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
WHERE ASCENT IS MAXIMIZED DUE TO LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A 35-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY SHOWS AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS FROM CNTRL SD
EXTENDING NNEWD ACROSS CNTRL ND INTO SRN MANITOBA WHERE MLCAPE
VALUES RANGE FROM 1500-3000 J/KG. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINTAIN
STRONG UPDRAFTS AS STORMS DRIFT NEWD INTO NCNTRL ND THIS EVENING.
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD CONTINUE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH MULTICELL
LINE SEGMENTS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING.

...SRN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU...
SEVERAL SMALL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AN
INSTABILITY AXIS FROM CNTRL KS EXTENDING SEWD INTO ERN OK AND WRN
AR. ALTHOUGH REGIONAL PROFILES SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK WIND SHEAR
PROFILES (0-6 KM SHEAR 10-20 KT)...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL
WIND DAMAGE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

...ERN WA...
A SMALL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN ERN WA IN A
REGION OF WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC
NORTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY OVER ERN WA WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 750 J/KG WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.5 C/KM. THIS ALONG WITH RELATIVELY
COLD 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -15 C SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

..BROYLES.. 07/13/2006