[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 031930
SWODY1
SPC AC 031929

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY EWD INTO
NY STATE AND SWD INTO VA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN
ROCKIES...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO WITH TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VALLEY.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS
NWRN WI/SWRN IA/NRN KS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD...REACHING AN ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR/SRN WI/NWRN MO LINE THIS EVENING AND SWRN ONTARIO TO
CENTRAL MO BY 04/12Z.  IN THE WARM SECTOR...A BAND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION FROM SRN IA ACROSS NRN IL/NRN IND HAS GENERATED A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ALONG ITS SRN EDGE...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PORTIONS OF THE WARM SECTOR FROM WI INTO PARTS OF IA/IL/IN HAS
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG...IN PART
DUE TO HIGHER DEW POINT AXIS FROM IA EWD INTO NRN IN.  LATEST
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS PRE-COLD FRONTAL CU FIELD BECOMING
INCREASINGLY ENHANCED FROM NWRN WI INTO IA WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF IA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AS MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES EWD ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /35-50 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR/ SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED INTO
ONE OR MORE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS/S THIS EVENING...WHICH WOULD
LIKELY SPREAD EWD ACROSS PARTS OF WI/NRN IL/LOWER MI/NRN IN AND
POSSIBLY OH TONIGHT WITH THREAT FOR MORE CONCENTRATED REGION OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES...
A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
SEWD ACROSS NY STATE...WITHIN INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE MLCAPE IS
1000-1500 J/KG.  FLOW ALOFT IS MODERATELY STRONG WITH 500 MB WINDS
OF 30-40 KT WHICH IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO AID
STORM ORGANIZATION.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD/SEWD
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

...SRN VA AREA...
A BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS MOVING EWD/SEWD INTO PARTS OF SRN
VA...ALONG SRN EDGE OF MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT. CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF
THIS BAND ARE PROMOTING STRONG HEATING/CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION
WITH MLCAPE GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG.  STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH WITH THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS.

...NRN ROCKIES AREA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX MOVING EWD OVER MT WHICH
IS GENERATING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MT AND NRN
WY.  STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE WLY MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW DAMAGING MICROBURSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL.

..WEISS.. 07/03/2006